EU Trade Talks Thread

[malumbu]

Hi Cat, did you think it would be plane sailing? I expect most voting to leave didn't even consider this, and many was on the Little England/Johnny Foreigner is taking our jobs, filling our schools and abusing our NHS.

That's not to say that many who voted to stay didn't put a lot of thought into it either, and didn't consider the benefits, few as I expect they are.

[diable rouge]

Ok, fellow EDFers, time for a game of Deal or No Deal.

Cat with his risk analyses can be the Banker.

I fully understand if no one wants to be Noel Edmonds.

Lots of talk of No Deal and gunboat diplomacy, but worth remembering that just over a year ago we were in an identical situation of a looming No Deal when trying to get the WA over the line, and then at the last minute Johnson caved in on a customs border down the middle of the Irish Sea. That was a BIG climb down but Johnson gambled that politically he could sell it as 'getting Brexit done', so politics matters to him.

That's why I'm going to hedge that there will still be a very last minute deal, because politically a deal is better for Johnson than No Deal. He knows that Labour will be split over the vote for a deal, whereas they would vote unanimously against No Deal. Despite some Labour MPs voting against a deal or abstaining, there should still be enough to counter any ERG vote against the deal, so with these votes, which importantly will include Starmer's, Labour will in effect be seen to endorse the deal politically, which the Tories would no doubt use against them when things get messy. Whereas with a ND the buck would stop entirely with Johnson and the Tories. They would solely own any ensuing chaos/hardship.

Politically this matters. All through the Brexit process the Tories have done what is in their own best interest, not the country's. A deal will still be really crap, but at least some of the crap will have landed on Labour...

[TheCat]

malumbu Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> Hi Cat, did you think it would be plane sailing?

> I expect most voting to leave didn't even consider

> this, and many was on the Little England/Johnny

> Foreigner is taking our jobs, filling our schools

> and abusing our NHS.

>

> That's not to say that many who voted to stay

> didn't put a lot of thought into it either, and

> didn't consider the benefits, few as I expect they

> are.

No, def didn't expect plane sailing. I can't speak to what other leave voters were expecting, but I can't see how anyone would be naive enough to expect nothing but sunshine and rainbows while implementing a major, broad-based transition to a country.

That said, I think (for a whole host of reasons) the UK government (under all 3 PMs we've had since the referendum) has made significantly tougher going of the process of leaving that it probably needed to be.

I'm still not sure I really agree with your characterisation of most leave voters. All the major opinion polls post-referendum cited sovereignty as the number one reason people voted leave, far ahead of immigration. My opinion (just an opinion, no data to back this up), is that it's easier and more comforting for many remainers to consider the only reasons people voted leave was because they were lied to, or were idiots. There were of course people who voted leave who could be characterised this way, but whether that was 'most' of them, I'm not so sure.

I've posted this before, but Pie's take on this never gets old in my book....

[TheCat]

diable rouge Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> Ok, fellow EDFers, time for a game of Deal or No

> Deal.

> Cat with his risk analyses can be the Banker.

> I fully understand if no one wants to be Noel

> Edmonds.

>

> Lots of talk of No Deal and gunboat diplomacy, but

> worth remembering that just over a year ago we

> were in an identical situation of a looming No

> Deal when trying to get the WA over the line, and

> then at the last minute Johnson caved in on a

> customs border down the middle of the Irish Sea.

> That was a BIG climb down but Johnson gambled that

> politically he could sell it as 'getting Brexit

> done', so politics matters to him.

>

> That's why I'm going to hedge that there will

> still be a very last minute deal, because

> politically a deal is better for Johnson than No

> Deal. He knows that Labour will be split over the

> vote for a deal, whereas they would vote

> unanimously against No Deal. Despite some Labour

> MPs voting against a deal or abstaining, there

> should still be enough to counter any ERG vote

> against the deal, so with these votes, which

> importantly will include Starmer's, Labour will in

> effect be seen to endorse the deal politically,

> which the Tories would no doubt use against them

> when things get messy. Whereas with a ND the buck

> would stop entirely with Johnson and the Tories.

> They would solely own any ensuing chaos/hardship.

>

>

> Politically this matters. All through the Brexit

> process the Tories have done what is in their own

> best interest, not the country's. A deal will

> still be really crap, but at least some of the

> crap will have landed on Labour...

Tend to agree with most of this DR.

By the by, link below to an interesting (and slightly novel) perspective on the tory/labour dynamics of a no deal scenario....which reaches a different conclusion to your comments above in the end...

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/if-boris-doesn-t-blink-over-brexit-keir-starmer-becomes-unelectable

[malumbu]

Surveys can be(not always) biased (I've commissioned my own):

Do you want to save the planet - 95% people would say yes

Will you do anything about it? - 95 % would say no.

But the headline is most would say that most people want to save the planet.

So why did you vote to leave (a) because you are racist (b) because you are a Little Englander © because you want sovereignty back

I expect very little would admit to (a). It'd like the shy Tory/Trump supporter

Having said all that I'm basing this on anecdotal evidence, ie middle England (little Englanders) and where I grew up (racist). Although I've got more on the latter judging from many I went to school with (who also hate Londoners, another reason to vote to leave). And all of this is seen through the lens of a metropolitan elitist (had to work hard to be accepted) so always good to hear the counter argument.

Of the former friends I've lost one is a racist and little Englander combined, one couple are just barking mad (Green leavers) but I have to suffer my racist brother in law, ironically second generation Irish who voted Corbyn in then voted Tory at the last election - he has no political compass. But I do have mates who did vote leave for proper reasons.

[Sephiroth]

"the UK government (under all 3 PMs we've had since the referendum) has made significantly tougher going of the process of leaving that it probably needed to be."

I think it's worth digging into why this might be. Bad fortune alone seems unlikely? TO have one prime minister unable to handle brexit well is unfortunate, to have two etc etc

The simple, and obvious reason (which you will reject) is because it's a bad idea, means different things to different leave voters and is undeliverable without smashing the economy, breaking up the UK and still disappointing large % of leave voters

By all means, paint a picture (real or fictional) of a prime minister who would be capable of delivering a good brexit, what it would look like and who wouldn't alienate the differing leave factions

The reason we have had 3 prime ministers unable to deliver it is because as soon as IT starts to take a form, any form, beyond the fantastical promises, it pisses enough people off to ditch a prime minister. And we will shortly have another to add to that list (as well as the broken economy, angry population, Scottish referendum etc)

Risk is all very well as a concept - but as you know it's about weighing the possible benefits against possible losses and includes probabilities. The possible wins of brexit were always nebulous and meaningless in harsh daylight, the losses were always way too harsh and risky (the country doesn't shoot for a prize and if it misses go back to where it was) and the probability massively weighted towards the latter

The wins potentially include UK surging ahead of Germany, France etc and becoming some amazing success story. That was never likely

What is going to happened is UK will AT BEST end up being the basket case it was in the 70s. Just as likely is even further to fall - Argentina being a salutary story

But sure - people like me, Red Devil/rouge/blah are wrong but people like Farage, Redwood, Martin, O'Neil, Grimes etc are the smart people in the room

If the only WIN is Sovereignty then we have very definition Fool's Gold. It's meaningless concept in the modern world of trade. It seems unlikely that Germany, France, Ireland and all the rest don't get "sovereignty" and there is a reason they aren't all clamouring for it in the way that extremists in UK are

[malumbu]

History will also tell. Could May have successively reached out to Labour? - never possible I expect with Corbyn. Would May's deal have been a better and softer alternative? - again back to Labour as she needed the allies. What would have happened if she hadn't foolishly gone for an election? Could Cameron, the architect of all this (possible/probable) disaster done any better - with no Plan B I expect before he called the referendum?

This is not intended to be an attack on May I hasten to add.

[Sephiroth]

Why not? She was as bad as everyone else. She knew the damage Brexit would do, was a remainer and then went along with lies to save her own skin

This rewriting of history is just so much nonsense. There never was a soft Brexit possible. Pick a soft Brexit. Any version. And then see how much leaver throw a fit and ditch their prime minister

Anyone pretending there was some good version of brexit is guilty of being away with the birds.

The only options ever available were remain. Or a Brexit to satisfy the headbangers who shouted loudest for 40 years. Everything else is some genteel delusion

[Seabag]

I think Labour should abstain on the vote anyways, it?s a Tory thing. Let them take ?the glory? in all of this. And if there is a deal, then I?m sure Boris can revel in his success.

But somehow, I doubt it will be like that, in the end. It?ll be an endless loop of ?well you voted for it? from the Tories desperate to share the blame.

[malumbu]

Softer not soft Brexit - alignment with EU would have peed off the right but been more palatable for our key industries - tech, pharmaceutical, finance, automotive (they ARE screwed). But May's red lines and premature Article 50....

[diable rouge]

Sephiroth Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> Why not? She was as bad as everyone else. She

> knew the damage Brexit would do, was a remainer

> and then went along with lies to save her own

> skin

I think May willingly drank the Koolaid because she could also see Brexit was an opportunity to carry on what she started as Home Sec, create another hostile environment for immigrants, this time from the EU. The vicar's daughter persona shouldn't fool anyone, she's a nasty piece of work when it comes to immigration...

[Sephiroth]

Yes

[Alan Medic]

Interesting thread. Is Johnson clueless or did he always want 'no deal'?

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1337437325979246593.html

[JohnL]

They're blaming Merkel because she's a Lutherian now and in the words of the Express Editor on Sky News "doesn't like the cut of Boris's libertarian jib".

Apparently EVdL is also Lutherian and they're in it together - with no doubt Macron lurking somewhere.

Mail saying exactly the same - strange how they co-ordinate stories.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9047055/Officials-say-Angela-Merkels-distaste-libertine-Boris-Johnson-blocked-Brexit-deal.html

[Seabag]

Alan Medic Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> Interesting thread. Is Johnson clueless or did he

> always want 'no deal'?

>

> https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/133743732597924

> 6593.html

Of course they wanted No Deal. It was selling it that was the hard bit, so make it impossible to get a deal, and the ?No Deal? looks like the best (I use that word advisedly) outcome, plus it can be pinned on the EU.

Without a deal then sky?s the limit in Utopia. That?s until the union falls apart, the shit hits the fan and this lot scuttle under a rock to point their fingers at the EU.

This was in an article today, and I?m wondering why I just don?t believe a word of it.

The government said it had practised "every single foreseeable scenario" with different ministers responsible for a variety of issues a no-deal Brexit might throw up.

"These plans work in real life - not just on paper," a government spokesperson said

[JohnL]

I wonder what the Government can and can't foresee based on their record of foreseeing things.

The EU countries in general think we are totally unprepared with no idea what may hit us.

[Seabag]

It looks like we?re going into extra (extra) time.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2020/dec/13/brexit-uk-eu-trade-talks-enter-final-day-amid-fears-of-no-deal-live-news?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

[Alan Medic]

A caller to LBC this morning claimed that the reason the EU want to keep the UK in its clutches is because the UK has been such a great trading nation since 1600.....no, that's not 4 o'clock, that's the year 1600.

I noticed for the first time doing an online shop that restrictions have been implemented on how many of an item you could buy. Maximum three.

[diable rouge]

Seabag Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> It looks like we?re going into extra (extra)

> time.

>

> https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2020/dec

> /13/brexit-uk-eu-trade-talks-enter-final-day-amid-

> fears-of-no-deal-live-news?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

Quelle surprise!

The bottom line is that the UK will have to strike a deal with the EU at some point, even if we initially No Deal, and as the last 4 years have shown, the longer the UK leaves it, the weaker it's position becomes and the worse the deal will be. Still, at least the weekend No Deal panic gave us some comedy gold from the Mail on how we can do our patriotic duty in the event of No Deal, I've already put my order in for a new Aston Martin, that second home I've always dreamed about in the Cotswolds, and a year's supply of Kobe beef...

[Blah Blah]

Some excellent points by Sephiroth and others there.

The fundamental question to ask here is, what do those pushing for Brexit really want and why.

This has always been a Tory Party battle for a very good reason. It is the battle of a big business mantra that seeks optimum profit, minimal regulation that it sees as a barrier to that, and demands as little taxation as possible. What do those wealthy pushers of Brexit really want? The UK to become some offshore tax haven. They have never cared how that would impact on the public or anyone else. People like Dyson want corporation tax abolished for example. Yes that is right, big business paying no tax. He also wants the freedom to hire and fire at will without compensation to the worker, so no job protection for employees either. This is what these people want. A race to the bottom for the rest of us, while they boost their own coffers. Is this what people voting for Brexit wanted?

As others have said, the idea of sovereignty as they sold it, is a nonsense. ALL trade deals comes with regulatory alignment. Even with fish, most of what our fishermen catch is sold to the EU! How many of them will be screaming from Jan 1st when they can't land that fish on the continent and compete in EU markets because tariffs just made their catch a whole lot more expensive. That is if they can even get it into the EU after days of being sat in a lorry queue at some port or customs border.

There is one question I have consistently asked leave voters through all this, and never got any answer. What exactly do they think will change for the better in a way that will directly impact them after we leave? Our economy will still be beholden to big corporations and tax dodgers, just as it is now. We will still see trillions in tax avoidance by them. Just what do we gain in real terms? Because right now, there is a long list of everything we lose, and didly squat on the gain side.

[Blah Blah]

Alan Medic Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> I noticed for the first time doing an online shop

> that restrictions have been implemented on how

> many of an item you could buy. Maximum three.

Supermarkets are expecting panic buying if there is no deal and expect that to be compounded by delays in imports deliveries. There is a real risk of shortages of fresh food if it is no deal.

[diable rouge]

Some supermarkets have had restrictions for months on certain products due to pandemic stockpiling, but a No Deal would certainly make things worse as a lot of our food arrives via just-in-time supply chains, and the fresh stuff can't be stockpiled...

[JohnL]

Reading Huffington Post and they say the "Walk across broken glass" comment which supposedly comes from No10 is actually a reference to Kristallnacht.

Going pretty low.

https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/brexit-merkel-kristallnacht-mail-germany_uk_5fd631ffc5b62f31c1fe12a8?ncid=tweetlnkukhpmg00000008&guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly90LmNvLw&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAN1g51arII0tr-WAjlVocrx93DaYHmkVxhgceaeB2LZMJSEWM6pbeABHaD69maFczgUeJh-rklBlgLDift8R7xRRktVnvUXnHI4uQ7yp9Qkj42p_0bkOMa1XI0t_XgZY7mSMn4uD3XEFnnDhJ7k12KIjMGGEOfgx2lfYW9Flidv1

[KidKruger]

> The fundamental question to ask here is, what do

> those pushing for Brexit really want and why.

The gains are several. I know cos a caller on LBC said there were many.

Firstly, ?we get to make our decisions?.

Secondly, ?we will not have to answer to anyone?.

Thirdly, ?we?ll control our own borders?.

There were others, but I?m only able to retain and replay a limited amount of misguided waffle.

Regardless, that millions of people in the U.K. believe and repeat this junk.

[TheCat]

As one of the few 'resident leavers' on these arguably very one sided pages (you want me on that wall (thread), you need me on that wall (thread))....I am looking forward to my collection of copy and pasted hyperbolic quotes taken from these pages, coming back in 12 months, with a side-dish of 'was it really that bad'?

For the record, I'm stating unequivocally that no deal is NOT what I have EVER advocated. And should it come to pass, it will hold quite a lot of turmoil (I'm not questioning that). But some of the OTT statements on these pages are really quite preposterous.

We've just come through 2020 (admittedly in bad shape) where most of the economy has been shut for most of the year. Yeah that's bad, and may get worse....but are we 'Argentina'? Or an 'international pariah'?...or are we really 'run by hedge fund managers...avoiding tax in offshore accounts' How are these comments any better than the ridiculous leavers who claim the country is being 'overrun by immigrants'? Many of you would like to think you're better than those types of leavers.....so maybe try a little harder to be so.

That said, to be fair, these are subjective terms, and only the fullness of time (which is not 3 weeks into January) will give us some of an idea. The level of conviction from many of you with regards to something which is clearly highly uncertain is either highly impressive or foolish delusion, depending on one's view.

Let's make a deal? None of us really know what the f@ck the next 12 months holds. So stop pretending you do. We all have a view, but whether it's yours or mine, they both sure share a pretty low level of confidence. Constantly asking for detailed answers on future predictions from people who voted leave is just childish and self-serving (can any remainers please tell me our exact GDP:per capita in 2 years from now if we chose not to leave the EU????.....yep...not possible...)

If we're living in mud huts in 12 months, I'll concede it probably wasnt a price worth paying. But if life is just a little bit sh-ttier than it is now with no deal, but really not the zombie apocolyse...I hope at least one remainer on this forum will be big enough to admit they still dont like it, but 'it's not as bad as we thought it would be'.....

I won't hold my breath though.