LTN: Our Healthy Streets - Dulwich: Phase 3

[Abe_froeman]

If the figures are for the whole month that cycling number would make sense. 37 more cycle journeys per day this year seems feasible.

[legalalien]

While we wait for ex- to finish his or her breakfast, some light reading : https://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.417.7811&rep=rep1&type=pdf. Assuming these are pneumatic tube counters (are they?), there?s some suggestion that large pulses of traffic can jam the counter. Old article though and not sure whether technology has improved the situation.

From what I can gather, suppliers of tubes stress their accuracy and suppliers of other types of counting technology stress their inaccuracy (no surprises there). Quite a few suppliers suggest a minimum speed of 5mph and I saw in a US govt procurement doct that ?Pneumatic tubes... sometimes fail to count when vehicles are moving slowly because the velocity of the air inside the tube is insufficient to trip the air switch.?, which sounds like what you are referring to Rockets?

[Rockets]

Legal it is. And council's know this and move monitoring strips closer to the source of congestion to alter traffic counts. So given the Lordship Lane counter is close to Grove Tavern this would tally. There is no way that Lordship Lane has seen a 22% drop in traffic and anyone who spends any time on it can see it with their own eyes.

I have touted that 22% reduction to friends of mine who are very pro-LTNs and even they think the council is having a laugh with that number in particular.

The council also seems to be very selective on the comparison month. Monitoring was put in on Lordship Lane at the end of 2020 so why focus on April only? I suspect an FOI might be needed to unearth the raw data.

Also, what is the difference between an active travel monitor and traffic count data being cited for cycling - wild fluctuations between the two. Also under Carlton cycles is refers to 5+98 - did someone leave part of the secret algorithm used in situ on the page....;-)

[Earl Aelfheah]

@Rockets - I stopped discussing Rachel Aldred?s credentials with you, when you refused to even accept a simple fact about how many papers she?s published. All the research on active travel and traffic reduction measures points to the same sorts of solutions. Yet you dismiss it all as biased. TFL?s data has been manipulated. Southwark are suspect. It does feel like an irretrievable case of confirmation bias and a bit of a waste of time debating.

To answer your question - yes, I can believe that traffic across the area is generally down and that cycling is up. I know a lot of people who are walking or cycling to local clubs / kids activities etc, when before they would have driven. A lot more families are walking to school. I include myself in this. My behaviour has changed as a result of the LTN schemes. It?s not in anyway surprising to me - It?s what?s happened everywhere restrictions on car use have been put in place.

That doesn?t mean that traffic won?t have increased on some streets however. As I have said many times, that needs to be identified through monitoring (not anecdote), and mitigated. But the idea that allowing cars to cut through side roads will ensure ?clean air for all?, is obviously ridiculous. It will only ensure more cars, less active travel and dirty air everywhere.

[Penguin68]

125 responses out of 236 households represents a 90% confidence level.

This is statistically meaningless. The form used by those who undertake surveys is that, at the 95% Confidence level, a particular result of a sample survey falls within +/- y% of the published result of x%, 95% of the time. Based on a sample survey. If all 236 households were surveyed (polled) then its a census - and the result is as it is, with no requirement for a confidence level.

The range of any properly conducted sample survey will differ on the basis of the actual result. If around 50% (half say one thing, half another) the range will be wide - but at 10%/ 90% the range will be much smaller. This is driven by the small tails on either end of a standard bell curve distribution. There are rules of thumb to take into account different sampling methods, from truly random to quota sampling.

There are different sets of statistical rules of thumb when your have, as you have here, a small 'universe' - (236 households). Most surveys are of very large (comparatively) populations. If all 236 households had an equal opportunity to participate (but remember that on-line surveys are only available to those with communicating IT and the capability of using it) then you might assume that 47% (almost half) were indifferent as to the result, having expressed no opinion, either because they didn't have one, or because they couldn't care either way. What you cannot do is then to 'allocate' in your mind the missing responses pro-rata to those made.

For political polling (using sampling) a sample survey of 1500-2000 respondents will give a 'reasonable' result at the 95% confidence level, where 'reasonable' gives a range of =/- 3% or so. Assuming the sampling is well conducted. Famously in one US election telephone sampling was used (it was cheaper than face-to-face) at a time when telephone penetration was highest amongst the middle class and wealthy. Which is why Dewey was called by newspapers using that survey as the next President in 1948 and not the winner, Truman.

[dulwichfolk]

What?s the chances Easter holidays has an impact on these reductions?

[Spartacus]

I have to wonder why the council have extended the consultation.

In my mind there are various scenarios:

1. They wanted to put out the traffic data, however that won't effect people who have completed it already.

2. They don't have many responses so providing extra time to gather a few more.

3. The responses they have so far aren't saying what the council wants to hear so more time has been added to bring in extra support for the LTNs (potentially from outside groups)

I'll let others suggest scenarios and mull over the reasons why.

[heartblock]

Whatever the pros, cons and statistical manipulation there is no doubt from this interim data that

1. East Dulwich Grove has overall a 26% increase in traffic and considering it was already an illegally polluted road this is significant

2. Bus journey times significant increased down ED Grove.

The other thing to remember is that this ?interim? data was taken during lockdowns and does not include the pollution monitoring we were promised before the consultation finished. Why is this data not included.

It seems out of all the roads in Dulwich, Southwark has decided that this residential road with school children?s and nursery outside spaces only metres away from the road is sacrificed so people in Melbourne and Calton can have a quiet life, yet still drive their SUV, diesel car or BMW on ED Grove on their way to their second home in the country.

[Penguin68]

I think it's clearly 3. The council have an agenda; if the 'results' so far met that, they'd publish. They don't, so they are now trying to work out (a) if they can get more support or (b) if they can exclude results already received to get to the answer they first thought of.

There is absolutely no chance that they are seeking wider or more informed input if it had already gone their way.

[Earl Aelfheah]

The data is unreliable! Except where it confirms my opinion, in which case there is no doubt that the same data is reliable!

[legalalien]

As a reminder, you can submit a new response to the review and change your original response if you want to:

"If you've already responded but wish to change some of your answers, you may do so but please give the same name and details, and indicate clearly that this is your second response (we'll disregard your earlier response)."

https://www.southwark.gov.uk/transport-and-roads/improving-our-streets/live-projects/dulwich-review

I think the extension is because the council / councillors were getting grief about not providing data prior to consultation end date, as they'd promised to do - the extension takes that problem away.

[Rockets]

rahrahrah Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> @Rockets - I stopped discussing Rachel Aldred?s

> credentials with you, when you refused to even

> accept a simple fact about how many papers she?s

> published. All the research on active travel and

> traffic reduction measures points to the same

> sorts of solutions. Yet you dismiss it all as

> biased. TFL?s data has been manipulated. Southwark

> are suspect. It does feel like an irretrievable

> case of confirmation bias and a bit of a waste of

> time debating.

>

> To answer your question - yes, I can believe that

> traffic across the area is generally down and that

> cycling is up. I know a lot of people who are

> walking or cycling to local clubs / kids

> activities etc, when before they would have

> driven. A lot more families are walking to school.

> I include myself in this. My behaviour has changed

> as a result of the LTN schemes. It?s not in anyway

> surprising to me - It?s what?s happened everywhere

> restrictions on car use have been put in place.

>

> That doesn?t mean that traffic won?t have

> increased on some streets however. As I have said

> many times, that needs to be identified through

> monitoring (not anecdote), and mitigated. But the

> idea that allowing cars to cut through side roads

> will ensure ?clean air for all?, is obviously

> ridiculous. It will only ensure more cars, less

> active travel and dirty air everywhere.

You weren't actually arguing with me over the number of papers she had published, that was someone else!

If you refuse to answer whether you think she has a conflict of interest maybe you can answer the other question I just posed. Do you think traffic is down 22% on Lordship Lane.

BTW the monitoring strips on Lordship Lane were first put in on the library side of LL at the Court Lane junction late last year yet have been moved to the junction of Melford Road for the review data that has just been published. I am now convinced they did this because traffic is queuing at Melford daily. Interestingly the strips on Eynella are flush to the traffic lights.

[Rockets]

Does anyone know if the council has applied the 12% they estimate traffic has been down over lockdown to these numbers?

[SE22_2020er]

Heartblock. The problem that you are highlighting on EDG is an increase in pollution. As someone who cycles along EDG from Lordship Lane at least twice a day I concur that the pollution from diesel cars and vans is unpleasant so I hope you are looking forward to the ULEZ in October as much as I am.

I would prefer you to please focus on the root cause of the pollution which is the traffic caused by the car and van drivers rather than the LTNs which actually serve to reduce the volume of traffic and hence the pollution. I can only speak from my perspective which is that the LTNs have encouraged my family and I to stop driving and cycle instead. I no longer drive my children anywhere as it is now safe for them to cycle.

I am sure that you share my anger that it has taken this long for the powers-that-be to redress the balance of the increase in traffic over the last 20 years in favour of non-polluting traffic.

We need to focus on stopping people driving so much. I have offered before, but if you would like to we could team up and start protesting along EDG each week about the unnecessary car journeys. Perhaps every week morning when the school run is on? We could also club together to buy a banner and ask Alleyns if we could put it up outside their school on the railings?

Thoughts?

[Penguin68]

...start protesting along EDG each week about the unnecessary car journeys.

All car journeys you take are unnecessary (to me).

No car journey I take is unnecessary (to me)

Discuss

[heartblock]

I haven?t driven regularly for ten years, probably twice last/ this year and not at all for the preceding eight, my partner has been diagnosed with epilepsy, so the two car journeys this year were car service, MOT and to take my partner to his Covid Jab, after some dodgy battery charging!

I voted for the Green Party last Council election and have been an active campaigner for lung and cardiovascular health for 30 years. Among other specialities, I lecture on the harmful and inflammatory effects of pollution as a causal factor in acute coronary syndromes and respiratory childhood and adult diseases at a well known medical school......anything else you want to know SE22?

I moved to ED Grove 30 years ago as a relative junior working for a pittance at Kings and I barely afforded the small flat I own on ED Grove, at the time I couldn?t drive, but as I was going on call I learnt to drive so I could attend patients having an acute MI. When I was promoted to work at the Royal Brompton I changed my car to a motorbike after taking my bike licence so I could get to an emergency within 20 mins.. I also do not ride motorbikes anymore.

I now walk, cycle and take public transport as a choice.

Now after years working for the NHS and in academia and hoping for a peaceful retirement in my small flat with my partner with disability....Southwark has decided to ruin my life and my little flat with awful traffic and terrible pollution, so guess what. I?m angry!

Happy?

[Chick]

We had some Labour councilor's at our front door canvassing for votes. I said I would not be voting labour because of the LTN's and she replied that they are going? I'll find her name and post it later.

[heartblock]

So now over to SE22...do you own a car? did you vote green? how big is your house? When was the last time you or your partner drove? Do you live in an LTN.

You see this is the issue. If you believe that LTNs are socially unjust and do not reduce pollution across the area installed...you have to produce a cv of proof, otherwise you are trolled and stalked on Twitter as is Rosamund Kissi Debra, in fact there was an attempt by the LTN lobby to no platform her!

...whereas locally we know that LTN campaigners live in LTNs, drive cars and do not vote for the Green Party and have never actively campaigned with Ext Reb...for example..yes I am a member.

LTNs are about wealthy people having a quiet road...that is it.

Traffic was down by 12% across London ...so a 14% reduction, measured by means that can be contested...is not a significant reduction in any sense of data analysis. 2% while EDG went up between 26-35% dependent on comparison -So let?s add that 12% and it is more like 38 to 47%..unacceptable.

[AylwardS]

The Dulwich Review consultation has been extended until 18 July and a further online meeting added. See below for update from Southwark Highways.

Dear all,

Thank you for your continued engagement with our Review of the road schemes in Dulwich Village, East Dulwich and Champion Hill.

Thousands of residents have already completed the consultation which can be found at www.southwark.gov.uk/dulwichstreetspacereview. We want to allow some extra time for those who have not yet completed it, so we are extending the deadline to Sunday 18th July.

We have also published a report on the monitoring data that we have obtained over the past couple of months. You can view this at www.southwark.gov.uk/dulwichstreetspacereview . We are going to hold an extra community meeting to discuss the data and what it tells us about the road schemes, on Tuesday 13th July 6pm.

This will be an online meeting ? to register for the meeting please go to https://dulwichreviewdata.eventbrite.co.uk

Kind regards,

Southwark Highways

[SE22_2020er]

Hey Heartblock,

I think you?ve misjudged my note. My point is that I believe we need to do something about the volume of polluting traffic on EDG and an effective way to do this (and certainly more than posting here) is if we come together collectively and protest directly to the drivers who are causing the pollution so that they think about whether their journey is indeed necessary and more important than our children lungs.

Are you in? Of course if work precludes doing this at 8am in the morning then let?s work out a time which is better for us both.

[heartblock]

Sure SE22- feel free to meet up with me one morning and show me how to decide which car and van drivers are not making necessary journeys on ED Grove and how to stop them, I'm sure some of the residents in flats on my strip would love to see you in action and learn some top tips.

Do wait for School term time though, that's when many of those unnecessary journeys are at a peak.

I'm sure the parents dropping of several kids, trying to get to work or running several errands would love you to tell them how unnecessary their driving is - TFL stats - "Parents of pre-school and primary school aged children have the highest car driver trip rates, and young adult households by far the lowest car driver trip rates"

I'm more than happy for ED Grove to join the LTN family, I can be just as selfish as all those people in lovely quiet LTNs - a nice big barrier on LL -EDG junction would suit me.

[legalalien]

Why are councillors canvassing now - no election till next May is there? Or are they taking the political temperature locally? I haven?t seen any, or any leaflets, so presumably not seen as being a ?swing? street.

[Rockets]

The LTN survey being done on streets like Woodwarde was being conducted by lifelong Labour supporters who said they were going to take the input to Margy to get her to realise she would likely lose her seat in May based on the LTNs, such is the feeling of anger towards the council amongst many residents in the very area where Margy would be expecting support.

[Nigello]

I'm sure the parents dropping of several kids, trying to get to work or running several errands would love you to tell them how unnecessary their driving is

Maybe they could organise their lives a little bit differently to allow for walking, cycling, car-sharing or bus-riding to school, even one day a week. Stop defending ingrained, selfish behaviour. Yes, it?ll be a bit of a drag but if you?re (you?re = any person, not the writer of the above) invested in your health and that of your offspring, whose future may be badly affected but climate change, you would at least consider rearranging your life at least one day out of five.

[heartblock]

Fine by me Nigello.. I actively campaign for closure of private schools... and kids to only go to state schools within walking distance and...as I said, I await SE22 to show us all how to do this and I'm all for a permeable barrier on the LL/ EDG junction. Yes Please.