LTN: Our Healthy Streets - Dulwich: Phase 3

[JohnL]

My employer (and many) is flexible on that sort of thing (families, school etc.)

[Dogkennelhillbilly]

Metallic Wrote:

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> It occurred to me last week that many of the

> cycling families taking their children to school

> won't have time to do it when they have to start

> their own work commute again. It will be back to

> unwilling nannies and au pairs round in SE21/SE22

> until it gets too wet and cold, and dark.

NB this is a theory you've invented entirely in your own head.

[first mate]

Seems plausible enough.

[Abe_froeman]

Surely all theories are invented entirely in someone's own head?

[Metallic]

JohnL Wrote:

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> My employer (and many) is flexible on that sort of

> thing (families, school etc.)

You are lucky but as it seems we are shutting up shop again I suppose the family cycling to school and the shops will continue.

[BellendenBear]

Metallic Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> It occurred to me last week that many of the

> cycling families taking their children to school

> won't have time to do it when they have to start

> their own work commute again. It will be back to

> unwilling nannies and au pairs round in SE21/SE22

> until it gets too wet and cold, and dark.

We cycle our kids to school. If/when we have to go back to the office this will still be the best way to get kids to school and on to work. I realise this isn?t the same for everyone. It has been lovely to see more families cycling during the last few weeks. I don?t know whether this is because of the road closures or people taking up cycling when roads were quieter or both. Either way I really hope it continues. For me the biggest consideration for continuing to cycle with kids through winter isn?t the weather but safety when it gets dark.

It seems to be in everyone?s interest, including those who really have no other option than to drive, if more people feel able to cycle safety. It would be great if this discussion could focus more on how this can be achieved and the role that we can all play in this as well as our local leaders. So far there seems to be a lot of ranting that the current changes don?t work with no alternatives being put forward. I say this as a car owner and commuter cyclist (non-Lycra wearing).

[Metallic]

Dogkennelhillbilly Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> Metallic Wrote:

> --------------------------------------------------

> -----

> > It occurred to me last week that many of the

> > cycling families taking their children to

> school

> > won't have time to do it when they have to

> start

> > their own work commute again. It will be back

> to

> > unwilling nannies and au pairs round in

> SE21/SE22

> > until it gets too wet and cold, and dark.

>

>

> NB this is a theory you've invented entirely in

> your own head.

It is a theory. (Unless everyone in this area is self employed or can do flexible hours.) I certainly had to start work before my kids would have to leave for school and so did my husband.

[northernmonkey]

But for a lot of working parents, they use school breakfast and after school childcare or a childminder, so those same parents who are cycling now with kids would just need to cycle earlier with them and drop them at either of these. The idea that because people go back to work it would all need to change is what is unreasonable. The difficulty for parents is where they take public transport to work, working out whether they can cycle in work clothes (mostly yes though some dresses are challenging!), and whether there is secure parking near the station for bikes.

[Rockets]

BellendenBear Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> Metallic Wrote:

> --------------------------------------------------

> -----

> > It occurred to me last week that many of the

> > cycling families taking their children to

> school

> > won't have time to do it when they have to

> start

> > their own work commute again. It will be back

> to

> > unwilling nannies and au pairs round in

> SE21/SE22

> > until it gets too wet and cold, and dark.

>

> We cycle our kids to school. If/when we have to go

> back to the office this will still be the best way

> to get kids to school and on to work. I realise

> this isn?t the same for everyone. It has been

> lovely to see more families cycling during the

> last few weeks. I don?t know whether this is

> because of the road closures or people taking up

> cycling when roads were quieter or both. Either

> way I really hope it continues. For me the biggest

> consideration for continuing to cycle with kids

> through winter isn?t the weather but safety when

> it gets dark.

>

> It seems to be in everyone?s interest, including

> those who really have no other option than to

> drive, if more people feel able to cycle safety.

> It would be great if this discussion could focus

> more on how this can be achieved and the role that

> we can all play in this as well as our local

> leaders. So far there seems to be a lot of ranting

> that the current changes don?t work with no

> alternatives being put forward. I say this as a

> car owner and commuter cyclist (non-Lycra

> wearing).

I think there were a multitude of factors at play with the uptake of cycling. I think the key one was that as people were working from home they wanted a way to do exercise with other family members. It was no coincidence that cycle sales went through the roof when the lockdown was first started - there were definitely more people out on bikes, especially families.

Kids were at home being schooled and parents weren?t under pressure to get the children to school and then get to their office. I do wonder how many people choose the car over public transport to shoehorn getting children to school. i.e. the car becomes the convenient transport choice.

I also think seasonal factors are huge. We were lucky that the lockdown hit during the unseasonably warm spring and hot summer. We all love cycling in fine weather but the moment the weather turns inclement far fewer people want to take to the streets - it?s why you couldn?t get a bike service for love nor money during early lockdown as everyone was taking their bikes to the bike repair shops after a winter of not being used.

As someone who used to do a daily commute to Hammersmith I would notice how many fewer cyclists would be on the road when it got to October/November and through the winter and often when I was unable to feel my feet or hands I would look longingly into warm cars and question my own cycling sanity!

[northernmonkey]

There's a huge difference in cycling across to Hammersmith in the cold vs cycling under 3 miles to school. You'd be surprised at how little kids complain - where mine have complained it has been things like cold fingers and has been fixed with warmer gloves.

Anyway - its these short journeys at peak times that need to stop most urgently and they're the most easily replaced by walking / scooting or cycling and in many cases are actually quicker than getting in and out of the car and finding a parking spot.

[JohnL]

Metallic Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> Dogkennelhillbilly Wrote:

> --------------------------------------------------

> -----

> > Metallic Wrote:

> >

> --------------------------------------------------

>

> > -----

> > > It occurred to me last week that many of the

> > > cycling families taking their children to

> > school

> > > won't have time to do it when they have to

> > start

> > > their own work commute again. It will be

> back

> > to

> > > unwilling nannies and au pairs round in

> > SE21/SE22

> > > until it gets too wet and cold, and dark.

> >

> >

> > NB this is a theory you've invented entirely in

> > your own head.

>

> It is a theory. (Unless everyone in this area is

> self employed or can do flexible hours.) I

> certainly had to start work before my kids would

> have to leave for school and so did my husband.

Companies are supposed to be looking at flexible hours - I've covered summer and xmas for people with families for years (and I don't mind doing it being single - I used to enjoy working at christmas - just me in the office LOL) but it's becoming more formal now.

https://www.wired.co.uk/article/flexible-working-post-covid

[Rockets]

northernmonkey Wrote:

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> There's a huge difference in cycling across to

> Hammersmith in the cold vs cycling under 3 miles

> to school. You'd be surprised at how little kids

> complain - where mine have complained it has been

> things like cold fingers and has been fixed with

> warmer gloves.

>

> Anyway - its these short journeys at peak times

> that need to stop most urgently and they're the

> most easily replaced by walking / scooting or

> cycling and in many cases are actually quicker

> than getting in and out of the car and finding a

> parking spot.

Yes there is but I think you would be surprised how many people drop their children to school on their way to work - and I suspect many of those do not work within a couple of miles. I agree that we need to stop the short journeys but during the council's data collection for their consultation process they identified the number of journeys through certain junctions but not where they were going.

The first evidence seems to be that the closures are not having the desired effect as people are still sitting in traffic in the Dulwich hotspots which suggests their journeys may not have been easily transferable to other modes.

The 11% rule seems to be applying across Dulwich at the moment and it's not enough to have a positive impact due to displacement and congestion it causes elsewhere.

[exdulwicher]

Yes there is but I think you would be surprised how many people drop their children to school on their way to work - and I suspect many of those do not work within a couple of miles. I agree that we need to stop the short journeys but during the council's data collection for their consultation process they identified the number of journeys through certain junctions but not where they were going.

I'd have to go back and read it more thoroughly but they did identify through-traffic, not sure if it included start/end points?

Modelling does try and identify and break down journey by type so someone getting in a car is not just "driving" - the trip is classed by business or leisure or school journey for example. Several ways and means of doing it, there's a (fairly technical) Government document on the principles here:

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/888363/tag-unit-m3.1-highway-assignment-modelling.pdf

If you want to read the entire thing, put aside a few days and search for Department for Transport TAG Unit, it brings up all the guidelines and documents.

Mobile phone data is very good at giving origin and destination of journeys as well as overall reliability, which is a measure of the time taken to do a set journey; you end up with a sort of bell curve of it normally taking (say) 20 mins but in exceptional circumstances it might take 12 mins or 40 mins depending on traffic factors. The narrower the bell, the more reliable the journey. As a general rule, active travel is far more reliable than driving - you know it takes 20 mins to walk to the shops for example and that won't vary much but driving it could take 5 mins or it could take 30 depending on time of day, traffic factors, parking etc.

The first evidence seems to be that the closures are not having the desired effect as people are still sitting in traffic in the Dulwich hotspots which suggests their journeys may not have been easily transferable to other modes.

No, it suggests that many people have not yet altered their behaviour. You always need time for measures like these to settle in, for people to be encouraged / nudged towards other options. It's up against a very challenging situation at the moment with mixed messages like "go back to work" followed now by "actually no, try and work from home again". A lot of people don't know if they're coming or going, the uncertainty isn't helping matters.

[Rockets]

I will save you the effort ;- ) as the council identified which streets the cars entered and exited on within a very small area i.e. Court Lane, Burbage Road etc - there was no data to show where the traffic was heading.

We are nearly 3 months into the DV road closures and nothing is changing - I know the council has said they need to give it six months. Interesting though that they didn't give the first phase 6 months to bed in before activating the second phase....

[exdulwicher]

We are nearly 3 months into the DV road closures and nothing is changing - I know the council has said they need to give it six months. Interesting though that they didn't give the first phase 6 months to bed in before activating the second phase....

Thanks for the clarification Rockets, appreciated, :-)

At a guess, that's down to the conditions of funding and how quickly these emergency schemes need to be implemented.

Lots of factors here - much of it imposed on councils by Government as to how and when they spend the money, not all of it related to number crunching.

[Dogkennelhillbilly]

"We are nearly 3 months into the DV road closures and nothing is changing "

You don't know that. You need data. The data hasn't been published yet.

[Rockets]

Ex- my pleasure. Finding anything on the SOuthwark website is a nightmare and they have this really annoying habit (I think it might be deliberate) of moving the materials so old bookmarks and links don't work anymore making harvesting any of the previously published info really difficult to find.

Dogkennelhillbilly - what data would that be? Remember the only data the council was collecting for the first couple of months after the DV closure was on the streets that had been closed - those were the only streets they put monitoring in on (and then someone cut them all in an act of childish petulance).

So their desire was to come to the conclusion that "hurrah, traffic has stopped using the closed streets - success, put up the bunting". Meanwhile on the displacement streets traffic is a lot worse but they had zero data collection in place. They rectified that glaring (and quite obviously deliberate) error a couple of months after the DV closure after people rightly questioned what they were doing - but putting monitoring in after the displacement has happened can't prove anything as there is no base to compare it against.

And the council refuses to put pollution monitoring in place - why, because they know they are causing an increase in pollution with these closures.

Per the OneDulwich email update last night after their second meeting with Helen Hayes:

? the Council is not monitoring air quality, so cannot assess the effect of the current trials (we didn?t agree with her view [Helen Hayes] that you can work out pollution levels from traffic volumes).

Do you now understand why people don't trust the council to do the right thing in these situations - because they lie, fudge and try to skew everything for their own benefit?

[Abe_froeman]

Did Helen Hayes really claim that?

Things are going to get a lot worse now we're in a second six month long lockdown.

[Dogkennelhillbilly]

What I like is the prospect of OneDulwich - entirely unqualified in traffic management and environmental monitoring - bickering over pollution measurement methodologies.

[Rockets]

Dogkennelhillbilly Wrote:

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> What I like is the prospect of OneDulwich -

> entirely unqualified in traffic management and

> environmental monitoring - bickering over

> pollution measurement methodologies.

But would you not agree that you would expect the council to have been monitoring traffic on the displacement roads and, given their desire to cut pollution, that pollution monitoring should have been a prerequisite? Or do they know that the results will show......

[Clutterqueen]

Abe_froeman Wrote:

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> Did Helen Hayes really claim that?

>

> Things are going to get a lot worse now we're in a

> second six month long lockdown.

I don't think Helen Hayes has a clue about the traffic problems created.

She has had her views etc. printed in the South London Press over recent things and has always been against the government against anything and especially the Brexit Vote.

[Dogkennelhillbilly]

...which you'd expect from a London Labour MP (who isn't Kate Hoey, tbf). That's the mandate she's been given by the electorate. The government hasn't helped itself by giving Labour a series of free kicks through its ineptitude...some of which Labour even managed to score a goal on.

But what does that have to do with the price of fish anyway? The roads are a council (and to lesser degree TfL) issue. Westminster isn't really involved.

[JohnL]

Dogkennelhillbilly Wrote:

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> But what does that have to do with the price of

> fish anyway? The roads are a council (and to

> lesser degree TfL) issue. Westminster isn't really

> involved.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/carltonreid/2020/09/17/end-governments-war-on-the-uk-motorist-argues-government/#525a0e4a566f

[exdulwicher]

Dogkennelhillbilly Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> What I like is the prospect of OneDulwich -

> entirely unqualified in traffic management and

> environmental monitoring - bickering over

> pollution measurement methodologies.

Taken a leaf out of Government's books. Discredit the figures you don't like, argue about how the figures are measured, change the method half way through... Government did it with Covid deaths...

You can measure pollution from traffic counts, you don't need actual pollution monitoring stations on every road. As it stands, there are already a load of them in and around London, they produce really useful baseline trends across long periods of time and every year there's a massive drop in NO2 on days when they close the roads for RideLondon and London Marathon. However they also pick up background stuff too - general city emissions, aircraft and so on.

Determining what comes from traffic requires intervention from traffic counts, weather models (wind patterns and vehicle turbulence both have significant effects on what gets measured and when).

However you can use traffic counts interlinked with traffic flow data and split by vehicle type to get a really good picture of pollution maps. Flow is already there - all those strips of tarmac by traffic lights are detector loops. There are cameras all over the place, mobile phone data and traffic apps.

Add in some actual physical counts at various times of day alongside the counters currently tied to lamp-posts (you know, those tubes that the helpful folk who demand to see data keep cutting...) and you can accurately predict pollution patterns.

Vehicle type is important as HGVs emit significantly more than cars so percentage of vehicle type gives options to potentially re-route lorries or model the impact that a bus has - a bus emits more than a car but it takes [x number] of cars off the road (sadly x at the moment with social distancing is lower than x pre-lockdown). So you add one bus but subtract (eg) 30 cars.

She has had her views etc. printed in the South London Press over recent things and has always been against the government against anything and especially the Brexit Vote.

Yep, a thoroughly sensible person!

[Dogkennelhillbilly]

Central government isn't making decisions about which roads to open and close, which schemes to introduce, and where to put double yellow lines in East Dulwich...much as like the idea of a conspiracy between Boris Johnson, the Stalinist class warriors of Southwark Council, and a shadowy cabal of Court Lane lizards - I mean residents - as has previously been asserted by certain increasingly agitated posters here.