ED house prices: sanity check please

[Jeremy]

dulwichgirl2 Wrote:

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> places like Fulham, Wworth and

> Clapham. We are currently getting the spill over

> from Clapham.

We've been getting spill over from Clapham for ten years now.

> Both the wharf and city are covered by the

> 'ginger' line as my friend calls it.

No, the overground doesn't go to the city. It goes to Shoreditch - but London Bridge is much more convenient for most of the city.

> athens or whereever

Seriously?!

[ratty]

Greedy seller? Oh yeah, I'll just take 10k less for my house and reduce that from my kids inheritance!

[El Pibe]

"for the sort of arbitrage estate agents need"

eh? Housing market doesn't really lend itself to arbitrage.

Are you suggesting agents buy houses in Camberwell then sell them in Clapham at a profit?

Not many victorian terraces will survive being uprooted and moved 5 miles west.

[dulwichgirl2]

El pibe, thank you for the correction. You are absolutely right and I was sloppy and plain wrong with the use of that word. "Leverage" would be a more accurate one. I meant that estate agents will do better in an environment that is more fluid, less certain etc. f2 as a measure is too cut and dried.

Jeremy, errr yes. Vast amounts of Greek money is hitting prime london so of course it might go back to Athens at some point. You can use the o/g to go to both the cut and the wharf and use existing overground train services for london bridge and the south of the city. Perfect coverage really, if you have access to both stations.

[dulwichgirl2]

House prices in prime London are set by global matters not average uk wage multiples, Aircardo.

East Dulwich is another story, once the trickle down effect slows or reverses.

[dulwichgirl2]

I meant city not cut!

[rgutsell]

Hiya all,

Here comes an anti capitalism rant!!

The "Market".....what is it? "Markets" do not exist. There are only self interested people seeking their own enrichment. (And, if you want to work hard enough, you can find out who they are...there aren't as many as you think!)

The "Market" is blocking normal people with families and children on normal wages (circa 28K income)from important areas of the UK. It is actually reducing support and resources to other areas.

Houses aren't investment capital; they are places we live in, and are essential.

We have to be brave and stop following the crowd, stop thinking its "cool" to be in places East Dulwich, and start investing commitment and energy to local community, local activity, and seeing our localities as places to live, not places to use to get rich.

There, I feel better now!

Yours

R N Gutsell

[dulwichgirl2]

It is possible to be very involved in your community while being pleased if the value of your flat rises!

[Jeremy]

But rising property prices harm the community - they only really benefit investors, or people who plan to leave.

I'm not naive, and more financially/economically aware than most, but I find it a little unsavoury when house prices are discussed in such a cold manner, littered with faux-business jargon.

[motorbird83]

A couple of points-- the new London overground line does go to Canada Water which is a 5 min change to Canary Wharf- not the City- but it does go to Shoredich. I know several people who use it to commute to both areas.

Second, if you want to know how much 3 bed houses are actually selling for look on right move--they have a sold price section http://www.rightmove.co.uk/house-prices.html. You can sort by flats, detached houses, terraced houses and look at trends even on a specific street. They have floor plans, pictures and map locations of the sold properties so you can understand variations in quality. I have been following the market as we are trying to decide if its time to sell our flat in ED and buy a house here-- we don't need the space yet but don't want to be priced out if there is a big jump in family home prices. The gap between asking prices and selling prices is about 5%. 575k for a mid terraced house with 1,100 sft within a 10 min walk of ED station on a quiet street is about right when the loft can still be converted. Large houses, those with big gardens and those closer to the station sell for 10%-20% more. Smaller houses, those on busy streets and those farther from the station still sell for less (sometimes substantially less). Those needing work sell for significantly less and stay on the market for a long time. The housing market in London is extrememly transparent so you can see very clearly what's going on.

Within the sold houses section of rightmove you can also generate a market trend report for any post code and by property type (flat, terraced house, semi, detached). It can be deceptive though as the quality of the property and location make such a big difference that the composition of what is coming to market really distorts the trend. More than prices increasing dramatically, people who moved here in the mid- 2000s when the first big wave of gentrification hit who could afford to really modernise their houses are now able to sell as the market has recovered which means on avg. nicer properties are coming to market in my opinion. A newly developed 3 bed property on Carthew was on sale for 550k back in 2007 when we were first looking. A similar property just sold for 575k.

Check out sold prices for the streets you are looking at and consider moving further from the station or buying a place that needs some TLC. A two bed house that can be converted to a 3-bed via a loft conversion is also still good value for money (450k-475k for a two bed, 40k for the loft conversion). You don't have to pay 600k to live in ED if that's out of your budget. Good luck and I hope this helps!

Edited for multiple typos!!

[Sue]

rgutsell Wrote:

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start investing commitment and energy

> to local community, local activity, and seeing our

> localities as places to live, not places to use to

> get rich.

>

xxxxxxxx

Well said

[dulwichgirl2]

Wow, motorbird, thank you. That is indeed impressive analysis.

[Katy Tonbridge]

How nice to see a thread that talks about "houses" rather than "properties". Somewhere in the last 15 years the British population got brainwashed into thinking the main purpose of a house was to make money.

[El Pibe]

15?!?! You might want to double that.

[AlexC]

Katy Tonbridge Wrote:

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> How nice to see a thread that talks about "houses"

> rather than "properties". Somewhere in the last

> 15 years the British population got brainwashed

> into thinking the main purpose of a house was to

> make money.

I don't think people were brainwashed into thinking this. A large number of people were making ??? on their properties during the boom! It wasn't make believe!

Nothing sums this up better for me than the episodes of Sarah Beeny's show during the boom years. Idiot property developer wannabe buys house in need of work. They ignore all Sarah Beeny's very sensible advice and instead get emotionally involved in the development and generally make some glaring mistakes.....but as the market has risen since they bought it, they still come away with a tidy profit!!

[fazer71]

The trouble is there isn't much else which is safe that WE can put our money into.

If you get a windfall where would you put your money to be safe and inflation proof?

Only Land and Property can give that security together with the inflation proofing.

I?m keeping my flat for my pension and buying a house which will make me a landlord OMG?.

ED gets my vote every time value for money at ?500 a sq ft.

The only thing which will slow property price increases are reduced supply of mortgages and change in the property ownership laws toward European ?Spanish? flaky ownership and rights and foreigners not wanting to come to London.

Foreigners don?t want to come to the UK they want to come to London that?s the key UK property prices are probably still high but London prices are still reasonable value especially when compared to some flaky European capital cities.

[Townleygreen]

fazer, what about all the young people who can't afford to buy/can't get a mortgage? If you don't have enough first time buyers, there's a clear and present danger to house prices anywhere.

[????]

100k in 2007 is equivalent to 89k now.Inflation eats it away....and we've had relatively low inflation...so far

[mrcee]

Articles like this help bring new money to the area. http://www.homesandproperty.co.uk/property_news/smart_moves_and_new_homes/londonstoptenprimeareas.html

Dulwich was name checked several times

[dulwichgirl2]

Yes but they represented SE London prices in Brockley and New Cross as 800 pounds per f2. This is clearly rubbish (more like 350!) and my fear is that people will read that and think they will be priced out of ED. Dear buyers, you won't be! That figure was utter rubbish.

[fazer71]

A young couple say a plumber on ?70K and his secretary girlfriend on ?30k can afford to buy a flat in ED. A combined salary of ?100k can get ?350k mortgage for a nice 2 bed flat.

A young city couple earning ?140k and ?60k can borrow ?700k and with the equity from the sale of their Clapham flat they might have ?200k equity which means they can pay up to ?900k that?s how it works for ED house prices though most of them probably play safe and only borrow 2.5 times joint earnings.

You only need to watch that Pimlico plumbers show about wages to realise there?s plenty of people earning more than enough to buy a house in ED and that?s without any inheritance and gift money from the bank of mum and dad.

ED is seen as a steppingstone to Dulwich Village and the local private schools so couples planning on a family move here especially medical types working at Kings Guys etc etc. thinking about schools for their kids.

I looked at moving out to Kent but by the time you factor in the train fares and the petrol driving everywhere it just didn?t make sense and I?d be stuck out in the sticks like a county bumpkin. What would I do in the evenings? Couldn?t just pop on a train to go to the theatre or spend the day visiting a museum.

Countryside is a dull a hell ok if you?re 70 and retired and even then you?d need your car to get anywhere.

More and more people are moving to Cities particularly Mega Cities like London the prices are probably only going one way and that?s UP particularly in prime areas which attract professionals like ED.

I work with a young guy who spends ?100 a month on his iPhone if you include the (lost ones and upgrades) and he is out every evening at restaurants and bars probably spends ?1500 a month on drink alone and he moans about not being able to afford a flat. I said to him 2 years ago ?save up and get a deposit? by now he?d have ?25k. But he just can?t help spending every penny he earns on complete rubbish. Prices have increased too so he?s probably ?50k+ behind.

So sorry not much sympathy for the young who moan about not being able to afford a property.

Ah also he want to buy in Chelsea it?s pure comedy.

Young people will just have to decide as I did spend their earnings on rubbish or save up and buy a property and spend your money on rubbish when you get into your late 30?s like I do? boxes of IT rubbish?? but that?s a whole different story.

[AD]

City worker on 140k and his girlfriend on 60k ? The average London wage is 40k and the average City of London wage for city folk is around 90k so you are being very generous in your estimates.

I live in a flat with my other half and we both earn what I would class as fairly decent wages but cannot afford to buy a house in ED as the prices are now so high. For people who bought their first property 10 plus years ago then their place has gone up 50% plus but for anyone who only bought in the last five years will find that in ED anything bigger than a flat is way out of their reach.

With unemployment high, and job security a thing of the past I would not want a mortgage of 700k or even 350 k !

Also, so what if that person spends 100 a month on iphone, what is approx a 1k a year going to be when you are trying to by a 600k house in ED ????

[*Bob*]

The myth of the ?70k plumber lives on..

[Ted Max]

This butter knife's no good for opening a vein. I'm going to try a discrete jab with a corkscrew under table. A combination of these Egyptian cotton napkins and my moleskin breeks should keep a good bit of the blood off the white floorboards.

[fazer71]

ED isn't an average area is it?

An average area is half the price ie Beckenham Bromley Croydon etc are average areas.

Your average ?90k and lets say ?15k for secretary salary for an average couple still equals a mortgage of ?367,500 and that buys an average house in an average London area.

ED is a prime area that?s why there?s a Foxtons on LL Foxtons only open up in Prime areas.

As for spending ?100 a month on an iPhone that?s fine buy if you?re saving up for a deposit on a flat then ?20 a month and any old phone would still do the job and the ?80 left over would pay all the legal fees and maybe some of the stamp duty too.

Dream dream dream I?m off to dream about living in a ?7 mil house off the Kings road test drive a new Ferrari???.. Which I can?t afford mind you I don?t really care I?m happy in ED.

If I couldn?t afford ED I?d probably be happy somewhere else I could afford.

?500 a sqft is really cheap compared to other equivalent areas of London bloody good value and I?ve been looking and looking and looking.

If you must be in ED then you could pay ?80 a sqft less and live on a main road.