ED house prices: sanity check please

[Ted Max]

Love some, Quids, but the missus is hoofing a hole in my shin under your Habitat oak veneer extender so I'd better say no. Plus, I'm on the early shift tomorrow taking the twins to their circus skills class.

Also, I plan on killing myself tomorrow so it'd only be a waste of your Cockburn.

[borderpaul]

Can I recommend the fine Victorian cemetery in Nunhead as your final resting place now that you have lived it up in East Dulwich!

[JRS]

Dear Wanhope

Go and look in Nunhead, Brockley, Ladywell, still easy to be part of ED, green and leafy, not always so pricey.

[bsand]

The clue is in the title of the forum - Nunhead's better than ED quips should be reserved for the ever popular Nunhead Forum.

[benmorg]

bsand Wrote:

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> Police Crime Map April 2012

>

> Nunhead - all crime 874

> East Dulwich - all crime 446

>

> http://www.police.uk/crime/?q=London,%20Greater%20

> London%20SE22,%20UK#crimetypes/2012-04

>

> There's a reason why Nunhead is cheaper and that's

> it - you see a lot of bars and security gates

> there as well.

Don't those figures simply reflect denser housing and therefore higher population? If you set the map to Knightsbridge (SW1X), the crime figure goes up to 1763 - more than twice the figure for Nunhead. The crime figure is higher in Knightsbridge simply because there are more people there, not because it's a rougher neighbourhood.

[bsand]

Why do the cops bother with them then if they don't mean anything.That said Soho is an eye-watering 5258.

[dulwichgirl2]

Yes density of popn. Probably per capita figures would be more useful to the house buyer. Less useful to the police superintendent who needs more cover, overtime, bobbies on the beat etc. .

[adele0781]

There is a beautiful terraced Victorian for Sale on St Aidans Road for ?550k

Great street right near the park.

Have you checked this out?

[Sue]

Ted Max Wrote:

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> We're not even at pudding yet and the wine's

> running out. Wake me up when it's time for the

> unsatisfactory snog with the hostess at the base

> of the stairs.

xxxxxx

:D

[gregson74]

So i googled met police crime rates for both nunhead and east dulwich and there were some interesting facts...

East dulwich

http://maps.met.police.uk/access.php?pcode=Se22+8el&searchlocation-button=&sort=rate&curr_area=E01004016

Nunhead

http://maps.met.police.uk/access.php?area=00BEGP&ct=16&sort=rate

Anyway, my point is that nunhead is also a decent and safe place to live as is east dulwich. Neither have the omnipresent threat of crime and you can walk the streets at night without any trouble. You may get more for your money if you explore a little further away but still have access to all things ed.

[Gimme]

When we were house hunting in 2007 there were plenty of 3 beds in the 600k bracket so in reality it sounds like prices are back to 2007 levels.

[benmorg]

Some sellers are having to make big price drops:

http://m.guardian.co.uk/media/mediamonkeyblog/2012/jul/03/andy-coulson-victim-property-slump?cat=media&type=article

[Mick Mac]

Gimme Wrote:

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> When we were house hunting in 2007 there were

> plenty of 3 beds in the 600k bracket so in reality

> it sounds like prices are back to 2007 levels.

I'd say ED property is now in excess of 2007 levels.

[talloulah]

Apparently Brockley and Lewisham and the new ED . Much cooler by far .

[aicardo]

Interest rates are at a 300 year low for a reason, our economy and banks are f'd. Any rise in rates risks more defaults and more banks going under... Hence they'll doubtful be any rise in rates and hence no bubble burst.

Over the next 5 years rates will have to rise slowly as economies become stronger again with a gentle fall in housing prices.it's a fact that house prices, even in London, have to eventuallly reflect average earnings, so they just have to fall, but not overnight.

It's tough if your in the market to buy as there seems to be a demand gap between one bed flats and houses, so it's the 2nd rung on the ladder that's a real issue.

[AlexC]

aicardo Wrote:

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> it's a fact that

> house prices, even in London, have to eventuallly

> reflect average earnings, so they just have to

> fall, but not overnight.

I don't think this is by any means a fact. The population of London continues to grow. The amount of new housing built doesn't keep up with that. Add to that the fact that many buyers are after period conversions, which are of course of limited supply. London just doesn't follow the same rules that most of the rest of the country does - I don't think prices have to fall at all. They may steady off, or just rise in a slower manner but I can't see them crashing tbh.

[benmorg]

AlexC Wrote:

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> aicardo Wrote:

> --------------------------------------------------

> -----

> Add to that the fact that many buyers are after

> period conversions, which are of course of limited

> supply.

No, demand for flats is much less strong than demand for houses outside the centre.

Most of the growth in prices has been in larger houses or prime central locations. A period conversation in SE22 isn't a safe bet.

[Sue]

benmorg Wrote:

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A period conversation in SE22 isn't a safe bet.

xxxxxx

Gadzooks!

[AlexC]

benmorg Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> AlexC Wrote:

> --------------------------------------------------

> -----

> > aicardo Wrote:

> >

> --------------------------------------------------

>

> > -----

> > Add to that the fact that many buyers are after

> > period conversions, which are of course of

> limited

> > supply.

>

> No, demand for flats is much less strong than

> demand for houses outside the centre.

> Most of the growth in prices has been in larger

> houses or prime central locations. A period

> conversation in SE22 isn't a safe bet.

I don't really think that there are any safe bets, so I'd agree with you there, but I just don't see a property price crash happening in London. Price stagnation, maybe. I see the odd property getting reduced in price but looking at the ads it usually seems more of a case of the seller thinking prices are still rising a la pre-recession levels.

[dulwichgirl2]

Interesting.

I think we have to realise that, just as london is a totally different market cf outside london, different parts of london behave differently. Prime central is clearly being supported by foreign panickers using it and sterling like a Swiss bank account. As I have said many times before, the Brits in these areas sell and move to the new prime - places like Fulham, Wworth and Clapham. We are currently getting the spill over from Clapham.

Se london with access to the new overgound is in a rather different position again because suddenly city money can live here and get to work really fast. Both the wharf and city are covered by the 'ginger' line as my friend calls it. If your place is near an o/g station, then I think you are in business. The rest of the area as it approaches sw6 prices (!!) I am less sure about.

At some point the ' panickers' will gain confidence and buy again in Paris, rome, athens or whereever

[dulwichgirl2]

AlexC, I agree that often prices take a long time to fall in areas where people can cover their mortgage. At some point though, some people have to sell, through the usual divorce, death or new family. Then you suddenly see the drop.

Also, prices stagnating equals dropping in real terms. It is amazing how horribly inflation can eat into savings and real capital values of properties.

Then to pick up again, you need UK growth.

Having said all this, I love property and am constantly looking and thinking about buying. We just never have the guts at these eye watering levels, that's all.

[fazer71]

What makes no sense is the price differentials.

A fully refurbished flat with new heating wiring new kitchen and bathroom is little more to buy than a rundown pile of cack which would need a 50K refit I spent 14k on my bathroom alone!

Not like that in Paris a pile of cack is often ?200 a sqft cheaper.

The London market is still stuck in the victorian era in pricing too.

I think it's Lazy Estate Agents mind you they aren't the brightest probably can't figure out how to calculate price pere sqft.. hehehehehe derrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr

[dulwichgirl2]

Pricing per f2, is an objective function and leaves no room for the sort of arbitrage estate agents need with both sellers and buyers. Always always compare prices per f2. It is so obvious.

[Hotdog81]

My wife and me recently got gazumped on our third house in ED. Why do estate agents allow this sort of practice to happen so often? It is just so unfair and cruel. We have had enough and are looking elsewhere. We've found somewhere lovely in Penge. It's cheaper but bigger and has a great vibe.

[fazer71]

I've just been gazumped too.

But it's not bad agents.

Working for the seller the agents have to put forward any offers which they get even after the seller has agreed to accept an offer so it's the greedy seller not the agents who are the shysters.

Even if you get gazumped you can still gazump back.