Syria

[El Pibe]

...and yet nobody has that influence, and 'the us will' is as hollow a threat as I've ever heard.

The presence of mujahadin didn't stop Bosnia's war from being Bosnia's war and Bosnia's tragedy.

This is in absolutely every respect Syria's war, 10,000 untrained fanatics/idealists (and Hezbollah) from across the umma won't change that, it's just another place for idiots to die in someone else's business.

There won't be anyone to steer this mess away from its current situation until the warring parties are willing to come to the table or one side wins.

You're obviously a Lebanon watcher, remind how long that took to peter out?

[stacey-lyn]

No idea what that is.

Anyway, on tonight's news - the sectarian warfare from Syria has already spilled into Lebanon via hezbollah. Quelle surprise - never saw that coming.

And you insist this is a Syrian war.

[uncleglen]

Why can't they all be Sufis then things might settle down!

[uncleglen]

The UN have asked Germany to take 10,000 Syrian refugees

[KidKruger]

So what's betting on what the US is gonna do now they appear confident that chemical weapons were used by Assad on his own people ?

If the US say they're in, I find it hard to believe they'll just provide military hints to the opposition.

[El Pibe]

The splintering of the rebels is horribly akin to the fractures in the loyalist coalitions in the Spanish Civil War, instead of concentrating on victory they're already fighting over the spoils of a victory that is becoming more and more illusory the more they fight for it's end-state.

In fact with each islamist atrocity I see an increase in likelihood of an end to the war with echoes of Iraq, a Hama-Awakening if you will. How that will pan out in terms of a workable peace after the atrocities committed by the government backed militias I have no idea, but uneasy would certainly be an understatement.

Given the events of the last few months surely any sort of peace is preferable to any end-state desired by extra national actors, but it would certainly seem that the loyalist forces have a better hand in those (potential) negotiations.

As an aside, I can't help (with the usual horror at all political, particularly indiscriminate, violence) a sort of schadenfreudal sense of irony at Hezbollah , on becoming a quasi-national military force and instrument of repression, eliciting the sort of insurgent activity that they more or less invented.

[polla2256]

The only real cure for Syria is to turn it into glass.

[El Pibe]

living up to your name there polla!!

[nashoi]

"The splintering of the rebels is horribly akin to the fractures in the loyalist coalitions in the Spanish Civil War, instead of concentrating on victory they're already fighting over the spoils of a victory that is becoming more and more illusory the more they fight for it's end-state."

A better example of the freerider problem in action than any on H's thread.

[Peckhamnearbe]

This came to my mail box and may provide some information/insight. I found that one of the speakers (Ewa Jasiewicz) has written a piece for the New Statesman recently:

Eyewitness Syria

Public Meeting Wednesday 31 July 2013 7.30 pm

Come and listen to an illustrated eyewitness account from the front line of Idlib by journalist Ewa Jasiewicz, plus Samir Dathi, Stop the War National Officer.

New Cross Learning (former New Cross Library)

283 - 285 New Cross Road SE14 6AS

Ewa Jasiewicz is a solidarity activist and trade unionist. She has lived and worked with oil workers and refugees in Iraq, and paramedics and farmers in Palestine. At the end of May, Ewa travelled to Ma?arrat al Numan and Kafranbel in Idlib province, Northern Syria with a new solidarity initiative called ?Witness Syria?. She spent time with Basmet Amal (Ma?rrat al Numan), the Kafranbel Media Centre and Karama Bus (Kafranbel) and Jasmine Studio (Bab Al Hawa Camp, Turkish-Syrian border). She will speak about the self-organisation and self determination taking place there and what you can do to support it.

[polla2256]

El Pibe Wrote:

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> living up to your name there polla!!

Thanks didnt know I had one, also its polla2256 btw not polla!!. Or we can leave it and await the rise of yet another rogue state, intervene and cause chaos in the middle east (again) or just talk about it endlessly from the comfort of our london homes while people die.

[polla2256]

El Pibe Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> I'm guessing you think a deal was done with the

> Mehdi Army to secure their release.

> That deal involved spreading democracy across the

> Arab world.

>

> You are Dirk Gently and I claim my five pounds.

>

> **eta

> 1. 2005 was a 6 years before the arab spring, I've

> no idea why you are connecting the two

> 2. I see from another idiot that apparently this

> is evidence that the Iraqi civil war was actually

> the end in itself and created by the sas and

> others planting bombs and shooting civilians.

>

> This is so ludicrous on so many levels I actually

> have lost the will to ask you why, but just out of

> curiosity i want

> a) evidence, not another link to a website with

> yet more speculation or tendencious opinion

> dressed as fact and cirular references to other

> loons on the internet

> b) A motive. Why are the CIA, Mossad the SAS and

> others (FSB? Peruvain internal security?)

> fomenting civil war in Iraq when it seems to have

> achieved nothing and runs counter to the policies

> of their civilian governements?

>

> Whilst you're at it do you believe in any or all

> the below?

> The US government conspired to let 9/11 happen

> THe US government conspired to do 9/11.

> The US government is powerless, the real world

> secret goveernment did it.

> The protocols of the elders of Zion.

> The UN as secret world government.

> The priory of Sion as secret government.

> The Templars as secret world government.

> The Rosicrucians are the real power behind our

> puppet civilian governments.

> Roswell and Area 51.

These views all seems a bit skewed. I recommend reading shock doctrine for a well researched account of events.

[polla2256]

El Pibe Wrote:

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> Impressive photo essay

> http://www.theatlantic.com/infocus/2013/05/syrias-

> long-destructive-civil-war/100522/

>

> Blimey

>

>

> And Brian Blessed in the FSA apparently

>

If chemical weapons are being used why aren't these guys clean shaven ? Its the only way to guarantee a good seal on your respirator.

[El Pibe]

So the Egyptian army seem to have read the Baath Party's seminal work "How to go about tearing your country in two".

Luckily Egypt doesnt have a massive unpoliceable border with a country run by various warlords utterly awash with weapons.

Oh.

On the plus side I don't think there is enough dissatisfaction among the majority to support moves towards brinksmanship that the Brotherhood seems to be pursuing, but it could be that a huge groundswell among the Brotherhood supporters would be enough for the conflict to take hold and spread.

All very depressing and every increasingly repressive move by the army just makes it more so.

[uncleglen]

At last -the Syrians are allowing a UN team in to determine the nature of the chemical attacks

[sheemy]

uncleglen Wrote:

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> At last -the Syrians are allowing a UN team in to

> determine the nature of the chemical attacks

I don't understand, why would Syria carry out a chemical attack on its own people at the same time it has invited weapons inspectors into the country?

Many of the videos circulating seem to be staged. If there was a chemical attack it was most likely the work of 'opposition groups' who want to provide a pretext for an attack by the US and its allies.

[El Pibe]

"I don't understand, why would Syria carry out a chemical attack on its own people at the same time it has invited weapons inspectors into the country?"

Probably because there's very little chance of them finding anything conclusive, especially if they're obstructive, but better than no letting them in when it looks increasingly like inaction will bring retaliation.

I'd have though a better quesdtion, given tha most ''opposition groups'' are based around neighbourhood defence, is why anyone would rain nerve agents down on their own families.

Plus given the apparent widespread distribution of chemical shells to army units, I'd have thought a decision to use them could have been made at a pretty low level, you don't need a nuclear football to shove a 100mm shell in an artillery piece.

[sheemy]

El Pibe Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> "I don't understand, why would Syria carry out a

> chemical attack on its own people at the same time

> it has invited weapons inspectors into the

> country?"

>

> Probably because there's very little chance of

> them finding anything conclusive, especially if

> they're obstructive, but better than no letting

> them in when it looks increasingly like inaction

> will bring retaliation.

>

> I'd have though a better quesdtion, given tha most

> ''opposition groups'' are based around

> neighbourhood defence, is why anyone would rain

> nerve agents down on their own families.

>

> Plus given the apparent widespread distribution of

> chemical shells to army units, I'd have thought a

> decision to use them could have been made at a

> pretty low level, you don't need a nuclear

> football to shove a 100mm shell in an artillery

> piece.

Really? Surely actually commiting a chemical attack while the UN inspectors are there is more likely to cause retaliation than not allowing in chemical inspectors?

And how will a few days be too late to find anything conclusive? I don't know much about detecting these things but I thought the UN inspectors were sent into Syria to investigate reported attacks which happened months ago. If they can't investigate something which happened literally a few days ago then they are not much use are they?

There has been numerous statements from western leaders concerning a 'red line' in terms of use of chemicals. Seems like a suicidal act for the Syrian government is they did this. I do not believe the Syrian leadership is that stupid.

So called opposition groups have been massacring civilians throughout this conflict. Many of these are not locals but 'jihadist' groups/mercernaries with foreign backing. One just has to look at the violent and graphic videos that have been released to see that they have little regard for civilian casualties.

[El Pibe]

I can't even parse point 1, but on your second point, finding the smoking gun won't happen if that's what they're looking for. Do you even remember the un inspections of all those bread queue massacres and so forth that used to happen in Sarajevo, the Serbs got to the point where they could safely lob some mortars in from some disputed neighbourhood and the UN would say nothing could be conclusively proved which would inevitably get reported in the press as speculation that the muslims were shelling their own.

THe red line had already been nicknamed the thick red line, and there's no stomach for it in the US, so this would likely result in a few tomahawks, and that only if the US can calm the Russians down. It certainly won't be enough to shift any balance of power given that it took a committed 7 month long air campaign to topple a much weaker regime in a less complicated internal conflict with a much simpler operating terrain and much less sophisticated AA capability.

To me it seems far more obvious that if the jihadists are gassing rebel ares that this will result in Syrian rebels turning on them, they having the greater numbers and the local knowledge, ESPECIALLY given that's *exactly* what happened in Iraq, and that was provoked by a bit of high-handedness and a couple of zealous summary executions in the street.

A willingness to bellieve a brutal secular governement that has massacred tens of thousands and employed murderous militias wouldn't do it but 'jihadists' would just sounds like the usual Islamophobia to me.

[polla2256]

Syria is a total mess. Once again we are backing some people, our enemies are backing some people, some other people want to get involved and some people just want to be left alone. It reminds me of Basra in 2004 (minus the chemical weapons).

These attacks happened - fact, carried out by whom - perhaps we will never know. Given the falsified data provided as justification for an attack in Iraq no matter what is found I think Syria's fate is decided. In the coming days the international community will change (again) and the middle east will once again be in turmoil (again).

I can only imagine the terror that people have gone though this last 2 years and dread what is to come from this.

[El Pibe]

It is the proverbial cluster isn't it.

Every possible move is fraught and will have repurcussions far removed from the ideal results that any international action would like. Having said that, even limited strikes on command and control could begin to persuade the regime to soften its stance, though the likelihood is tiny.

I guess the ideal, given the state of affairs, would be for a coup to remove Bashar and create a space where negotitaions could ensue.

[polla2256]

In History a Coup against such leadership is usually the result of differing economic policy (privatization Vs nationalization) at the hands of external influence (IMF for instance). In this case a coup has to be brought about by a will of the people. Unfortunately that was the catalyst to this conflict in the beginning leading both sides to polarize and even phase (rise of fundamentalism), but only the resistance phased in this way.

It's really difficult to see how a coup could be brokered in this situation. Only Russia hold those cards (from an economic perspective) and I don't foresee them taking this course of action. Iran and Lebanon are the only other two who may be able to sway an influence. Considering Iran want nuclear power it may be able to use this position and prove itself to be a stabilising factor in the region in the eyes of the International community and try to create such an event, Lebanon will never support a coup of Bashar (unless persuaded by Russia and Iran).

It is possible and could even be of benefit to a peaceful resolution for the "Iran agenda".... but then there is the Israel problem !

[El Pibe]

Iran wants the regime very much to hunker down and see it through, lebanon is of utterly no significance at all

I think your definion is somewhat narrow and coloured by the cold war, I guess you're thinking Iran, [nasser's] Egypt, Guatemala etc but actually they came about as a result of a fear of loss of American support that bolstered their power base rather than any issues with nationalisation per se.

Historically coups are done by parts of the army in a position to do so (think majors and colonels, generals less so because they usually have vested interest in the current establishment) out of a combination of self interest and an idea of 'what's best for the state' which may very well include a combination of carrot and stick by external influences.

They may well be driven by political philosophy, or more likely antoganism to the established philosophy or more realistically fears of what philosphy may become established, think the nationalist coup in Spain in '36 fearing communism/anarchism or even Egypt's recent coup fearing moves to fundamental islamism.

In terms of Syria I don't think it would take much to persuade those in direct control of divisions well placed to do, that th regime is extremely bad for the country and the potential rewards of taking over are worth taking.

I mean the country is edging towards a permanent division and the economy is utterly fucked even if parts of Damascus and the middle classes reamin otherwise unscarred by war.

It would probably involve a leap of faith that moving the locus of Syrian spheres toward turkey/US away from IRan/Russia, and that may be a leap too far.

Though thinkikng about it I wonder if it would actually be a solution that Russia might encourage, if getting rid of an intransigent figurehead but keeping the establishment staus quo might solve the problems at a stroke whilst being acceptable to them too.

[polla2256]

Perhaps Iam being a bit post soviet though I was drawing on thoughs of chile. The fact Lebonon is Hezbollah and will strike Israel mean they are of significance if you view the whole area as a tinderbox.

Unfortunatley as soon as the missile are sent there is a very strong possibility of total regional war.

[uncleglen]

Before the UN team were allowed into the area where the chemical weapons were (and when they did they came under sniper fire), the rebels were sending body tissue samples of alleged victims of the chemical weapons to the UN hotel, presumably to be analysed. It would be easy to contaminate some body tissue with a chemical. The delay in allowing the UN team in means that the chemicals may have denatured if there were any in the first place- it all seems very fishy imho.

It all boils down to some holy war upheaval and a massive power struggle in the islamic world and whatever the west does will not stop any of it.