23rd March - ?Put It To The People March? - central London

[Sephiroth]

Can anyone else help me out then?

Which bit of my post is Robbin referring to when they say ""Not a single one of those projections was made on that basis, as you well know. I chose the examples carefully. So your observation is invalid."

If they mean the claims in their post such as: " Loss of 500,000 jobs straight after the vote over

> 2 years ago. Utterly false. (ETA - see below unemployment figures out today) " I don't understand why my link addressing that exact point is being dismissed

I might not be making my points well, or clearly. But I'm not trolling

[exdulwicher]

Whatever "lies" or "misinformation" you think the Remain side were telling (all of whcih was dismissed blithely as Project Fear), it only seems to be the Leave side which broke electoral law repeatedly, they've just been fined again for further breaches:

https://www.joe.co.uk/news/vote-leave-fined-40-grand-breaking-electoral-law-224139?fbclid=IwAR10XgxK14F_wV_HBumze6kVIMDHHm_U3q9UfRMapodH7Wlyltrfl1WVACE

And as you can see from the Twitter campaign on the Led By Donkeys page which are quoting all the tweets and comment made by Leave politicians about "the easiest deal in history", "we have all the cards", the notorious "take back control".

All of them wrong. Outright lies.

Entertaining watch - aimed at those poor hard-of-understanding Yanks but it kind of works here too.

[diable rouge]

robbin Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> Straight into recession. Utterly false, GDP has

> grown every quarter since - it is the German

> economy on the brink of recession.

I didn't have the time to respond to this earlier, so I'd like to revisit.

I always thought that the claim of going straight into recession after the referendum was a strange one, because for there to be a technical recession there needs to be 2 successive quarters (i.e. 6 months) of falling GDP growth (note falling not negative), which means it's impossible to go into an immediate technical recession. Happy to be corrected if there's another definition of recession that economists use.

Also, when recession is mentioned one has to look beyond the headlines. For instance, let's say Germany's GDP fell from 2.5% to 2.25% to 2% over 2 quarters, and over the same period the UK's rose from 0.5% to 1% to 1.5%. Germany is technically in recession but still performing better than the UK. I'm not saying that's the case now, as I haven't checked, just that one needs to dig deeper to get the bigger picture.

I have though had a look at UK GDP and I can't find anything that backs up your claim that GDP has grown every quarter since the referendum. Growth has remained positive, i.e. above 0%, but it hasn't continually grown each quarter, there's been lots of ups and downs. Here's a graph to explain...https://tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/gdp-growth

I also think it's better to look at long term growth as opposed to snapshots, I'm spoiling you, here's another graph... https://fullfact.org/economy/uk-economic-growth-higher-europe/ Note the switch-over in fortunes between the EU and UK just happens to be at the time of the referendum. Around this time the world economy in general picked up, yet we trundled along. And as has often been cited, the UK went from being at the top of the G7 growth league to the bottom. Brexit itself can't be blamed as it's not happened, but uncertainty over it has clearly played a big part...

[robbin]

DR wrote:

"I have though had a look at UK GDP and I can't find anything that backs up your claim that GDP has grown every quarter since the referendum. Growth has remained positive, i.e. above 0%, but it hasn't continually grown each quarter, there's been lots of ups and downs. Here's a graph to explain...[tradingeconomics.com]"

Isn't that the very essence of growth? If GDP has grown every quarter (i.e. is a positive % figure on top of the previous quarter) then my statement was correct - GDP has grown every quarter - as is borne out by your chart. I think you are confusing it with whether the rate of increase of GDP has increased every quarter, which is a different thing and not something I have ever said?

The current deteriorating German economic situation is summed up here: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/feb/14/german-economy-just-avoids-recession-but-weaker-exports-take-toll

[diable rouge]

But you were talking in the context of recession, and for that to hold and make sense you need to refer to rate of growth, not just growth per se...

[robbin]

Based on your definition of recession, I would agree, but I don't recognise it from your description.

I think I am right (but then I usually do!). I am prepared to stand corrected (grudgingly!)

[robbin]

To put it more directly, your understanding of the definition of recession is wrong.

[diable rouge]

To put it more directly, I couldn't give a flying fook what you think...

[JohnL]

Anyway going back to the topic who's thinking of going on Saturday :)

[robbin]

It's embarrassing I know, but there's no need to be snippy. Just Google it. There's no need to continue to be wrong about something so basic as that (seeing as you are making points based on a false premise).

Obviously I'm aware of your sentiment already - no problem - I'm not bothered whether you give a f**k or not - I have no idea who you are, so why would I be?!

[teddyboy23]

Dr and robbin I had money on you two getting together oh well .

[diable rouge]

Sorry teddyboy. Anyway, you would've made a crap bridesmaid...

[teddyboy23]

😀 true

[Hemingway]

Remainer here, but UK has not been in reccession since referendum. Recession is two quarters of negative growth not a reduced growth rate....as you were

[JohnL]

Wonder how Saturday will go after today's disaster.

[robbin]

Hemingway Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> Remainer here, but UK has not been in reccession

> since referendum. Recession is two quarters of

> negative growth not a reduced growth rate....as

> you were

Thank you Hemmingway. That is the conventional (and correct) definition as I have always understood it to be. I've not seen dr's version before and having studied macro economics at postgraduate level I presume I would at some point have come across it, had it been the measure. But then I couldn't rule out the possibility I hadn't been down the pub for that particular lecture.

[robbin]

teddyboy23 Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> Dr and robbin I had money on you two getting

> together oh well .

I think I've blown it on that front. You can put your hat away.

[teddyboy23]

It didn't fit anyway

[JohnL]

Looks like Parliament might be in emergency session during this march.

[Sue]

I shall be there.

On the march, not in the emergency session :))

[Earl Aelfheah]

I don't actually support a second referendum. I think at this point, we should simply stand up for representative democracy and withdraw article 50 on the grounds that it has not been possible to deliver a brexit deal that parliament can agree is in the best interests of the country. Leaders need to be leading.

Will still try to go to the March however, to call for revoke and remain.

[JohnL]

Rumours that there are twice the amount of coaches from outside London as last time.

[Angelina]

are we clear on what the options are for a second ref?

it needs to be binary and can't be vague (leave/ don't leave)

A list of things the gov would change in order for the WA to be passed would be helpful (in fact, why is this not known)

[Sephiroth]

"A list of things the gov would change in order for the WA to be passed would be helpful (in fact, why is this not known)"

Because the discussion is over. The Govt can change or say what they like but the discussion phase with EU is over

The deal is the deal. So only options now are That Deal, No Deal or No Brexit (teh latter either via revocations or possibly via ref. I think Leavers should have had courage of their convictions re ref2 and had it. I think it's too late now and revocation is more likely)

[teddyboy23]

Telephone 116 123