Whither the euro?

[DaveR]

An editorial in the French newspaper, Le Monde, is not surprised by Britain's position: "Let's be fair. The British have nothing to do with the euro crisis. They are not responsible for the inability of the eurozone leaders to resolve their sovereign debt problems. It makes sense that the British resist a move towards greater economic and budgetary integration. They don't believe in it. They do not believe in the idea of the European Union. Britain, which joined the then European Economic Community in 1973, is interested just in one thing: the single market. They [the British] are indifferent about the rest of the European project, when they are not hostile to it."

I couldn't have put it better myself. The single market will live on. There is no reason to think the UK will suffer from being outside a fiscal union any more than it has suffered being outside Schengen.

[????]

...various opinions

Chortling at this one

The UK is "as isolated as somebody who refused to join the Titanic just before it sailed".

[Huguenot]

I think the editorial is well put also - apart from the conflation of influential right wing Eurosceptics and the 'British' in general.

Neither does that mean that I think the 'British' position is correct - I can just recognise it.

Current anti-Europe sentiment in the UK is entirely predicated on a confusion between the Euro and the EU, and an externalisation of British woes upon some dangerous European interlopers.

Nor am I worried about the absence of the UK from this deal in particular (I never imagined it was likely) - but I do think that this position is indicative of a greater malaise, and it's foolish to imagine that Europe will continue to do business as usual with a country that they feel is either indifferent or hostile to their interests, and was disruptive in their hour of need.

In that context mathematical calculations about the inclusion in certain agreements simply miss the point - it's the political fallout that matters, and the potential tarrifs that manifest themselves consequently.

[????]

..the real political fall out will come with the growing malaise from those people in the smaller states who feel they have no real influence, have not had a choice, and have, in their minds, austerity imposed upon them by Germany and France, and yet will be too scared to leave the Euro which will work pretty poorly at balancing economies of its member stats, that's a massive, massive (like potentially Tim McVeigh type) problem a few years down the line...if the Euro makes it that far. They can't all get jobs in Germany!

The attempted Euro 'rescue' is risky, undemocratic, based on a growing economy and taking awayany sense of democratic empowerment that the non-existant 'people of europe' (ha!) ...it's a timebomb and completley predictable that it would end thus. I personally feel they need to think about dismantling it as ordely as possible

[Huguenot]

I understand the sentiment - but as I've illustrated before, Europeans don't feel this way about it. You're describing a British state of mind.

Europeans don't empathise with why the British would be indifferent to the 'European Project'. There's a potential misread of the Le Monde quote above - it's not justifying the British position, it's scornful of what it believes to be a simplistic Anglo-Saxon preoccupation with markets rather than people.

The Greeks for example do not feel, nor protest the proposition, that the austerity has been imposed by Germany.

In fact they believe that they've been subject to a monumental rip off from their own social elite. Europe (and European legislation) is perceived as an opportunity to resolve this - not, as the British think, a threat on sovereignty from afar.

[DaveR]

"Current anti-Europe sentiment in the UK is entirely predicated on a confusion between the Euro and the EU, and an externalisation of British woes upon some dangerous European interlopers."

H, I think your muddle-headedness is predicated on an inability to distinguish between the Euro, the EU as currently constituted, and the 'European project' referred to by Le Monde. The 'European project' is the belief that the EU will lead inevitably to political union and a European federal state. Fiscal union is a big step towards this because fiscal policy is a key political issue in most countries.

There is not and never has been any UK support for the project, and tbh there is precious little support across the EU outside of the narrow political class and a thin seam of Euro idealists. That's why it has taken the mother of all crises for the Italians and Spaniards, for example, to sign up for it.

On the other hand, there is no real widespread anti-European sentiment in the UK other than the odd bit of tabloid generated nonsense and the extreme wing of the Tory party. Cameron knows that and will (I predict) resist calls from IDS etc. for repatriation of powers and the like.

You mention tariffs; what do you mean? If you are suggesting that a new Euro zone is going to suddenly tear up the founding EC treaty and start imposing import taxes on UK goods then you're even more barking than I thought.

[silverfox]

Britain isn't being "disruptive in their hour of need"

The Eurozone's need is to solve the debt crisis, to cover Greece's debts before contagion becomes systemic. The Eurozone has until the summer to raise nearly ?1 trillion to meet bond obligations and it's not clear where this money is going to come from.

All these are needs.

The new treaty isn't a need. It is a desire by Germany to mitigate future pressure on itself to pay off others' debts. The more Germany controls the fiscal policy of other countries the less it will have to pay out. This is quite understandable from Germany's view point. I'm not sure it will be so easily accepted by those countries who have lost the right to determine their own fiscal policy for the next 30 to 50 years and the austerity being imposed on them by 'foreign' forces.

William Hague has it right ...a burning building with no exits

[????]

That was data from 2010 and was already trending away as I pointed out. In the FUTURE we have several years of austerity ahead of us, the resentment will grow enourmously., and I think defualts may happen anyway.

The Greeks for example do not feel, nor protest the proposition, that the austerity has been imposed by Germany.

...you are joking surely? Spain beginning to creak. Italy will be soon, the Irish are increasingly resentful. If you think there aren't huge parts of the populations in many EU nations who won't blame this on a French/German stitch up after a few years of austerity you are massively delsuional. The current debate is being framed by European politicians and bureacrats/techncnocrats who haven't a clue what to do about their Frankenstein ....the people haven't had a chance at all yet, I don't think it will end well.

[Huguenot]

"There is not and never has been any UK support for the project, and tbh there is precious little support across the EU outside of the narrow political class and a thin seam of Euro idealists."

No, I'm afraid you're wrong - that's where your whole argument collapses. For European views please check by on the research I provided a few weeks ago. Your claim is both unsubstantiated and untrue.

Every time I generate the data to prove it, you lose the argument - and then you repeat the same mantra later on, leaving me to have to generate the research again.

It's boring.

Even 10 years ago Britain was 68:19 in favour of staying in the EU. Now it's 49:40 in favour of leaving.

How has the EU changed since then? Not at all. The only difference is the Euro crisis, and how it has been exploited by anti-regulatory and isolationist businesses who could exploit a weak Britain.

[Huguenot]

European views...

[????]

How has the EU changed since then? Not at all. The only difference is the Euro crisis, and how it has been exploited by anti-regulatory and isolationist businesses who could exploit a weak Britain.

Hurrah, Hallelujah, rejoice - look at the title of the thread and realise why many of us (not all admiittedly) have been arguing with you for what seems like aeons on here and been getting frustrated by your unwillingness to split up the the Euro and the EU except when it suited your arguments.

The Euro was flawed for very several obvious reasons which I've posted about 20 times as have others (can't have a common currency without central fiscal control - and also, incidentally, the support of the people for the latter) that it's critics pointed out at it's foundation for which they were screamed "Xenpphobic/Little Englander" at continually from the idealists that didn't want to hear reality.

The shit has hit the fan and the Euro is now belatedly, and probably to late, nowtrying to do what it should have done at the beginning - and doing it without democratic consent, this is potentially disatrous.

Simplifying just answer these questions please.

Do you think the Euro was flawed at its conception?

Do you think that sovreighn states can have a shared currency without centralised Fiscal Control?

Do you think that handing over a sovreaign states fiscal control to a central state without the will of the people is democratic?

Do you think ALL critics of the Euro are bigoted europhiles?

Do you think the Euro has been a good thing for Greece, Irealnd, Italy and Spain thus far?

The irony of you claiming others are getting the EU and The Euro mixed up on this thread is truly hysterical!

[the-e-dealer]

Q1 Yes

Q2 No

q3 No

q4 No

q5 They did very well out of it while the Money came in. Pity they spent it all.

[????]

Those polls are spring 2011 Huge - the Greek austerity protests started in May 2011, the criss has unfolded since. Polls are polls and swing rapidly - as the swing in UK opinion that you showed earlier demobnstrats. Real democratic deciisions like are you willing to give up ypur sovreignty for the Euro require a referendum or an election if you believe in democracy, something the greeks were denied recently for starters...you think 70% of the Eurozone population would vote for that? Really?

[DaveR]

H, I'm not going to address your unintentional but hilarious grandiosity ("I generate the research...")

Boringly, I will just be factual. 2 Qs were asked in 2010 (at a time when 50% of people thought the worst of the crisis was over)

- do you think the euro is a good thing?

2/3 in favour. No surprise there.

- do you think stronger co-ordination of economic policy is likely to be effective in tackling the crisis?

Unsurprisingly 80% said yes, and they were right. What's more, dial forward a year or so and it is perfectly obvious that it is the only way of tackling the euro crisis.

However, to equate these answers with widespread support for a federal europe is just wrong, but that's not really the point. That's not what this argument is about. You started off by saying criticism of the euro = xenophobia. I said that's crap. Then you said the euro crisis was precipitated by financial speculation. And I said that's crap too. And now you seem to be saying that not signing up to fiscal union (which may or may not actually materialise) will threaten the UK's trading position with the euro zone. And I'm saying that is also crap. For the avoidance of any doubt whatsoever I am saying that you are terminally full of sh!t on this topic.

[Huguenot]

Eh? My position has not changed recently.

@Quids: I distinctly remember having a row with you four years ago of whether it was practical or whether it was necessary.

Do you think the Euro was flawed at its conception?

Were/are there flaws? Yes of course.

I'm aware you may fundamentally believe this is simply a yes/no economic question, wherein our differences lie. Economically the Euro is going to struggle through these formative years. However, I believe that the Euro is a political question that transcends fiscal mathematics - it is a necessary and vital part of social and global progression.

The 'flaws' are built-in as executional parameters. To say 'is it flawed' is to say 'are there problems with walking': of course you can only trip when walking, but these are necessary elements of progress. I don't contest them, I welcome them as a demonstration of growing skills and experimentation to a greater goal.

I've argued relentlessly that the Euro is part of a process towards political, administrative and economic integration

Do you think that sovreighn states can have a shared currency without centralised Fiscal Control?

No - but I also think that the privatisation of currency is an implausible construct. I don't believe that the ownership of the means of exchange should lie within the hands of 'interested' individuals.

Currency in the modern definition is effectively a facilitator of barter that relies upon inequality to function. Globalisation and the demands of the labour market render it a social issue that should be regulated outside of nation states.

The move to centralised fiscal control over a broad geography is a step toward the 'world currency' based on equality of labour that I feel is the inevitable consequence of the information age.

Do you think that handing over a sovreaign states fiscal control to a central state without the will of the people is democratic?

Currency is not currently remotely connected to the will of the people - it's a private commoditisation of a fabricated concept. The move to a central state control is an increase in democratisation, not a decrease.

Do you think ALL critics of the Euro are bigoted europhiles?

(Europhobes?). No - it depends upon their term of reference. If they're drawing conclusions based on substantiated evidence and/or historical reference I'll take the point. If they're opining on a projection of unsubstantiated perspectives then their motivation is simply prejudice.

Do you think the Euro has been a good thing for Greece, Irealnd, Italy and Spain thus far?

Come on mate, you and I are pretty similar ages - you remember what it was like yeah? I don't expect a 25 year old pharmaceutical rep from Brighton to remember what it was like when we were really f*cked, but I expect you to!!

[????]

Thanks Huge - I'm off to eat/kids etc but will get back at a later point but as in broad terms where we differ is that as a pragmatist I think objectives are best achieved by a distant goal with a number of achievable milestones on the way. The Euro as it was set up just had the distant goal......a dream. That's not enough.

[Carter]

"The Greeks for example do not feel, nor protest the proposition, that the austerity has been imposed by Germany."

And my favourite...

[Huguenot]

Ha ha!

Very good.

[Carter]

"How has the EU changed since then? Not at all." [10 year timeframe]

EU Diplomatic Service - est 2010

EU Arrest Warrant - est 2003

CEPOL - European Police College - est 2005

EU Institute for Gender Equality - est 2006

European Food Safety Agency - est 2005

There's about 10,000 jobs and 10 billion, and I'm sure I can find lots more if the pub wasn't beckoning.

Still, at least you yourself can keep believing the bollocks you keep spouting.

*edit to revise money. The Diplomatic Service has a budget of 7 billion itself.

[Peckhamgatecrasher]

To lighten the mood a bit:

Just read the obituary of Captain Charles Upham VC & Bar which included this:

In 1962, he was persuaded to denounce the British government's attempt to enter the Common Market: "Britain will gradually be pulled down and down," Upham admonished, "and the whole English way of life will be in danger." He reiterated the point in 1971: "Your politicians have made money their god, but what they are buying is disaster."

He added: "They'll cheat you yet, those Germans."

[Carter]

"European Views..."

The problem is, that when Huguenot posts such easily disprovable crap is that he is either -:

a. Very, very stupid. The eloquence and language would suggest not.

b. A shill. More likely. Now we get into propaganda territory, as opposed to reasoned argument. But as long as he is right, dammit, then the rest of us are right-wing xenophobic idiots.

Those graphics from the EC document referenced about how "Europeans" feel that he is so very proud of.

Working on the numbers in the technical reference at the end - the results came from 31,769 people interviewed.

Out of a population of 469,946,984! That wasn't even just EU countries - they threw 6 other countries in for the hell of it.

In other words those graphs represent the views of 0.006760124244142398% of the population.

So, again. Complete fucking crap.

[????]

Personally I think Huge likes an argument and will never admit he's wrong.

I think this thread clearly proves he is way out of touch with current and recent events in Europe and his knowledege is a bit sketchy about global finance/bond markets and the practical fundamentals of a single currency, his antagonistic style of posting is therefore exposed IN THIS CASE. And his stubborness means he carries on digging himself a deeper hole.

His defence that the ideal is right and the end justifies the means is poor (but all he has left other than to admit defeat) as he knows in his heart - Stalin, Mao, Pot all clung to tht kind of fanatical rubbish . Realistically millions are going to suffer becasue of the idealstic claptrat that created the Euro without firm foundations, democracy is and will continue to be undermined to try and hold up this charade and the consequences will be far reaching. Indeed, the Euro is as likely to result in the demise of the EU as cementing it.

It's been a disaster.

[Huguenot]

Quids - excellent. I am now Pol Pot, and you are snuffling around a Godwins.

Carter - must try harder.

I mean, really? They only interviewed 32,000 Europeans in a balanced representative sample, so the results are 'complete crap'? Were you drunk when you wrote that?

You also miss the point regarding the changes in the EU in the last 10 years. Most people do not know about the administrative changes you've suggested - they will not have impacted on people's view about Europe.

The only thing big enough to have impacted people's views are the challenges with the Euro, whipped up by an anti-European press.

However, the EU and the Euro are not the same thing, and Europe is not responsible for Britain's woes.

The irony is that 'pulling out of Europe' cannot make Britain better, it can only make Britain worse. There is no upside to giving the bird to Europe.

Since that is manifestly obvious, then your anti-European stance cannot be rational. So what then, can be fuelling your rabid anti-European stance that is so extreme that you claim interviewing 32,000 people cannot give us a fair idea what people think?

[Huguenot]

You guys remind me of a couple of Normans sat in the living room sharing a can of lukewarm Fosters telling each other that you're having a great time whilst the party's going on next door.

"Yeah, but PROVE I'm not having a great time!" - no thanks mate, I'm just gonna go join the party.

The silly thing is that it's not as if you weren't invited.

[Carter]

I did not "misunderstand" your point about "How has the EU changed since then? Not at all." You asserted the EU has not changed at all - administrative or otherwise, and have been shown to be lying.

Just like "The Greeks for example do not feel, nor protest the proposition, that the austerity has been imposed by Germany." - again, lying.

And do you seriously think a sample than 0.0007% can be extrapolated across an entire continent as "European views..."?

The European Union not only possesses such symbols of statehood as its own flag, anthem, motto and annual official holiday, it now has its own unelected government, with a legislature, executive and judiciary, its own unelected President, its own citizens and citizenship, its own human and civil rights code, its own currency, economic policy and revenue, its own international treaty-making powers, foreign policy, foreign minister, diplomatic corps and United Nations voice, its own crime and justice code and Public Prosecutor. It now even has its own defence force and Maritime agency, and a lot of the changes have come about in the last 10 years.

We have the removal of democratic governments in Greece and Italy, crap though they may have been. Now Cameron has pissed off Merkozy - how long will it be before he is removed?

And the citizens of the Union now owe allegiance to that Union, and to its aims and ?objectives?, even though no-one in the UK has any idea what these objectives may be.

The Euro is the EU is the Euro. The two are the one and the same.