Russian aggression - what to do?

[Alan Medic]

Anyone got a theory on the timing of this attack? Why now? The guy has been in the UK for years. Interesting article from last year attached.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/russia-diplomats-deaths-theories-putin-kremlin-a7602201.html

[JoeLeg]

Because there?s about to be a Russian election, and as ?assured? as Putin?s victory may be, it doesn?t hurt to remind everyone of how he handles things.

[Blah Blah]

JoeLeg Wrote:

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> Because there?s about to be a Russian election, and as ?assured? as Putin?s victory may be, it doesn?t hurt to remind everyone of how he handles

> things.

Exactly that.

I think you need to take a look at cold war history SpringTime. You will see plenty of tit-for-tat proliferation. Let's start with how the West really did liberate the countries it crossed from the dictatorship of Germany and Russia? Well, those countries just went from one dictatorship to another. And just like the Biritsh EMpire, those countries only regained independence once they became an economic burden to the host nation. Putin is the product of a failed Glasnost. He oversees a Police State where any voice of dissent is snuffed out.

As for Syria, there was no right side to support. Again, go and do some research on the Assad dynasty (and how it was behind the first Islamic terrorist attacks in Western Europe. Learn something about the region (Syria has at least 19 different bedouin tribes that live outside of any idea of national identity). And then come and have a conversation with me about sides in Syria.

[dbboy]

Stepping away from the title of the thread, I'd be interested to learn about;

Where the nerve agent came from?

How it got into the UK?

How it was deployed?

Who has done this?

Is/are the perpetrators still in the UK (doubtful)?

How did they leave the UK?

How come the nerve agent did not affect the person or people who deployed it?

Why did the security services have no idea this could happen? (especially after the Litvenenko was murdered)

What are the authorities doing to stop anyone else bringing a nerve agent into the UK?

What will be the impact on those 500 people in the pub and Zizzi's who are collateral damage?

What precautions are the Government taking to protect the general public from any futur attacks?

How "polluted" are those areas that have been affected?

Why did Corbyn not condemn Putin in The Commons yesterday after May gave her Statement?

[JoeLeg]

Personal opinion - in fairness to Springtime they have a point about eastward NATO expansion since 1990. Russia was given assurances that NATO would not expand past East Germany which were comprehensively broken.

Now I can also see why Poland and the Baltic States would wish to join NATO (though frankly the idea of Latvia etc being able to trigger Article 5 fills me with dread), as Russia views large swathes if Eastern Europe as being their sphere of influence, and those nations remember what happened post-WW2.

But Russia, as I said, also learns from history. They don?t want a NATO state sitting on their border. They don?t want missiles sitting that close to them. The fact is we would respond the same way.

ETA - this is all part of the larger issue, which is Putin making sure no one treats Russia the way it was (in their eyes) treated in the 1990?s. He has economic problems domestically and he rememebers that it was economics that ultimately sank the USSR.

[Blah Blah]

It is more complicated than that though. Glasmost failed because capitalism does not work like that. You can not just switch economic system overnight and expect it to function properly from the off. What were the people really liberated from and into? Putin is a KGB man through and through. He was selected from an establishemnt that never wanted Glasnost in the first place. He is simply the product of an old order re-establishing control in reaction to it.

On the NATO thing, well again, Russia is not faultless is shaping these thngs. It starts with the blockade of the Western occupied half of Berlin, followed by a hard border that seperates families for decades. Russia did not have to do any of that. So where do the seeds of aggression really lie?

[JohnL]

Someone has said we may start targeting Putin's allies - Isn't that rather cavalier

Oh .. it was Boris (edit: and LOL he means people not countries - I thought we were about to go into Syria when I heard this on the radio).

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-russia/johnson-says-corrupt-putin-allies-may-be-targeted-idUKKCN1GR0UY

[JohnL]

dbboy Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> Stepping away from the title of the thread, I'd be

> interested to learn about;

>

> Where the nerve agent came from?

> How it got into the UK?

> How it was deployed?

> Who has done this?

> Is/are the perpetrators still in the UK

> (doubtful)?

> How did they leave the UK?

> How come the nerve agent did not affect the person

> or people who deployed it?

> Why did the security services have no idea this

> could happen? (especially after the Litvenenko was

> murdered)

> What are the authorities doing to stop anyone else

> bringing a nerve agent into the UK?

> What will be the impact on those 500 people in the

> pub and Zizzi's who are collateral damage?

> What precautions are the Government taking to

> protect the general public from any futur

> attacks?

> How "polluted" are those areas that have been

> affected?

> Why did Corbyn not condemn Putin in The Commons

> yesterday after May gave her Statement?

Boris has said we're going to send a sample to be analysed by the OPCW.

Maybe Corbyn was trying to ask the above questions, he was booed when he mentioned the diplomatic service (that's code for MI6/MI5 I think) - Has TM kept him out of the loop ?

[Alan Medic]

JoeLeg Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> Because there?s about to be a Russian election,

> and as ?assured? as Putin?s victory may be, it

> doesn?t hurt to remind everyone of how he handles

> things.

Like you say he is pretty much assured of victory. I don't think that explains the timing of it and I'm not sure who exactly he is reminding of how he handles things. Why the UK? If anything it should show the UK how much it needs to be part of the EU in terms of not being isolated. And that I'm sure is not part of Putin's agenda.

[JohnL]

Alan Medic Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> JoeLeg Wrote:

> --------------------------------------------------

> -----

> > Because there?s about to be a Russian election,

> > and as ?assured? as Putin?s victory may be, it

> > doesn?t hurt to remind everyone of how he

> handles

> > things.

>

> Like you say he is pretty much assured of victory.

> I don't think that explains the timing of it and

> I'm not sure who exactly he is reminding of how he

> handles things. Why the UK? If anything it should

> show the UK how much it needs to be part of the EU

> in terms of not being isolated. And that I'm sure

> is not part of Putin's agenda.

We're seen as the weakest link at the moment.

https://edition.cnn.com/2018/03/13/europe/spy-attack-salisbury-npw-intl/index.html

[jimlad48]

The Diplomatic Service is the overseas part of the Foreign &Commonwealth office, and covers staff serving in accredited positions overseas in Embassies, High Commissions and Missions. It does not refer to SIS/MI5.

The fundamental issue is that the Russians see the world in an entirely different manner to the West, and their world is one of repression, dictatorship and shocking poverty. It has been invaded more times than it remembers and it feels that NATO want to invade, which comes as news to NATO. The Russian response is to act in a manner that they consider rationale, but which causes revulsion in the West who simply dont work that way.

The Russians are unfortunately a fairly barbaric bunch, and keen on violence, aggression and unpleasant activity - just read the accounts of Eastern Europe in 1945.

[BrandNewGuy]

Well, there's a thing. Can't see how the timing of this can do anything other than fuel the conspiracy theorists.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-43405686

[JoeLeg]

Alan Medic Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> JoeLeg Wrote:

> --------------------------------------------------

> -----

> > Because there?s about to be a Russian election,

> > and as ?assured? as Putin?s victory may be, it

> > doesn?t hurt to remind everyone of how he

> handles

> > things.

>

> Like you say he is pretty much assured of victory.

> I don't think that explains the timing of it and

> I'm not sure who exactly he is reminding of how he

> handles things. Why the UK? If anything it should

> show the UK how much it needs to be part of the EU

> in terms of not being isolated. And that I'm sure

> is not part of Putin's agenda.

I think he?s reminding people in Russia, plus exiles, who they?re answerable to. It was more for domestic consumption - he doesn?t give two figs what we think about it.

[JoeLeg]

Blah Blah Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> It is more complicated than that though. Glasmost

> failed because capitalism does not work like that.

> You can not just switch economic system overnight

> and expect it to function properly from the off.

> What were the people really liberated from and

> into? Putin is a KGB man through and through. He

> was selected from an establishemnt that never

> wanted Glasnost in the first place. He is simply

> the product of an old order re-establishing

> control in reaction to it.

I could?ve been clearer. What I meant was that America ultimately forced the USSR into an arms race it could not afford, which is what bought about its demise as a political entity. What happened after was just as you say.

And yes, he?s reestablished the old order. But a lot of Russians like that, it makes them feel safe and that?s really important to them.

>

> On the NATO thing, well again, Russia is not

> faultless is shaping these thngs. It starts with

> the blockade of the Western occupied half of

> Berlin, followed by a hard border that seperates

> families for decades. Russia did not have to do

> any of that. So where do the seeds of aggression

> really lie?

That?s a Gordian knot if ever there was one; most of Cold War history is a series of reactions to moves made by the other side, continuing until 1990. The fact is assurances were made and broken.

Again, this is just my opinion, but I think NATO made a grevious mistake in promising no eastward expansion, and the west in general made a mistake in thinking that Russia would not ?rise again? in the manner it has post-Yeltsin. The result has been an unsurprising flexing of Russian muscle as they reassertvthemselves.

[BrandNewGuy]

JoeLeg Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> I think he?s reminding people in Russia, plus

> exiles, who they?re answerable to. It was more for

> domestic consumption - he doesn?t give two figs

> what we think about it.

But why now? Just before the World Cup and a long time after the ex-agent was any kind of threat? Suggests very poor timing. And as others have pointed out, there is little evidence of other agents who'd been involved in 'spy swaps' being bumped off ? an unwritten rule of spy swaps during the Cold War was not to pursue them after the swap.

[rendelharris]

BrandNewGuy Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> JoeLeg Wrote:

> --------------------------------------------------

> But why now? Just before the World Cup and a long

> time after the ex-agent was any kind of threat?

> Suggests very poor timing. And as others have

> pointed out, there is little evidence of other

> agents who'd been involved in 'spy swaps' being

> bumped off ? an unwritten rule of spy swaps during

> the Cold War was not to pursue them after the

> swap.

No idea of the veracity but it was suggested on World at One yesterday that Putin's worried about the turnout in the upcoming elections making him look bad (even though he's got it sewn up) and that he also wanted a timely reminder to anyone thinking about spilling the beans re Russian help for Trump to win the election that there would be consequences.

[JohnL]

jimlad48 Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> The Diplomatic Service is the overseas part of the

> Foreign &Commonwealth office, and covers staff

> serving in accredited positions overseas in

> Embassies, High Commissions and Missions. It does

> not refer to SIS/MI5.

I won't ask what spies use as cover then (I always thought cultural attache - that must have come from a Bond film)

The ones we're expelling are spies - as that seems to be the gist of the reason for expulsions ?

Not sure what Corbyn was referring to then. Maybe he did mean diplomacy and I read too much into it.

[JohnL]

"Frankly Russia should go away, It should just shut up"

Gavin Williamson UK Defence Secretary.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/thousands-of-troops-offered-anthrax-jab-txsz9t9kl

[cella]

Terrible appointment. He has no filter apparently and has said some ill judged things. Looks like a petulant child. Very worrying if he's being pitched as a possible leader.

[TE44]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-43405686

[TE44]

You would think the UK being a leading country into

Research into chemical warfare, we could come up with answers to show the nerve agent used came from russia. I wonder how many people have believed the media info given blaming Russia, or how many felt a distrust especially with our governments history. I would think the latter is understandable.

[Blah Blah]

I agree with everything you write Joe. Absolutely the Russian people prefer what they know, and the 'stability' of that, to the chaos that Glasnost brought to them in the immediate term. I also think you are right with NATO vs Russia. The peace has always been uneasy between two fundamentaly different cultures. History absolutely plays a role in defining that but I would also add that so does terrain and climate. Russia is pretty inhospitable in some areas, and it's very rural too. It is easy to feel isolated in Russia. And with isolation comes paranoia.

[Inbound]

Deploy a secret agent and assassinate Putin, deny any involvement

[JohnL]

TE44 Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> You would think the UK being a leading country

> into

> Research into chemical warfare, we could come up

> with answers to show the nerve agent used came

> from russia. I wonder how many people have

> believed the media info given blaming Russia, or

> how many felt a distrust especially with our

> governments history. I would think the latter is

> understandable.

Corbyn & Labour seem to have agreed that Russia is the culprit (allegedly there was a privy council meeting last night - maybe there's more evidence)

Joint statement issued by UK, France, US and Germany too

https://www.vox.com/2018/3/15/17124062/usa-russia-uk-france-germany-statement-full-text

[rendelharris]

cella Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> Terrible appointment. He has no filter apparently

> and has said some ill judged things. Looks like a

> petulant child. Very worrying if he's being

> pitched as a possible leader.

He used to keep a pet tarantula on his desk to intimidate people, and sent the Navy out to shadow Russian ships saying "I will not hesitate to defend our waters" when they were, quite legally, sailing through international waters. Also claimed that Russia had plans to paralyze the UK by cutting our electricity interconnectors under the sea (experts swiftly pointed out that even if they were, which they weren't, that would result in the UK losing 5% of total capacity). He's a posturing little prick who seems to think he's the reincarnation of Churchill.