Insane house prices in the area

[JohnL]

Zoopla shows rises in southwark over 3 and 12 months and a fall over 6 months.

Maybe it's just statistical differences - note the report says year through to November 2017.

https://www.zoopla.co.uk/house-prices/browse/southwark/?q=southwark

[Earl Aelfheah]

Tractorlad Wrote:

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> https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-01-15

> /the-london-borough-where-home-prices-have-crashed

> -by-21-chart. Southwark officially worst

> performing borough 12 months to November!

They have another article underneath it which contradicts it completely.

[JohnL]

Latest analysis on the LSL Acadata website is for October - but even it notes that the figures are affected by a small number of high end sales - e.g. for Westminster in September. Note this is all Sales figures not asking prices.

"As can be seen in the above table, the largest price falls on an annual basis were in the top 11 boroughs by value, with prices in these eleven boroughs falling by an average ?50,600, or 5.6%, over the twelve months. The largest individual fall over this period was seen in the City of Westminster, down an average -19.2% or ?320,555, per property. It should however be noted that some 39 apartments were sold at the Thames-side Riverwalk development in 2016, at an average price of ?2.9 million, which raised prices in the City of Westminster in September 2016, but no similar sales of new-build high-end properties have been repeated in 2017, hence the substantial fall in prices seen in the borough. "

https://www.lslps.co.uk/news-and-media/market-intelligence/house-price-index/england-and-wales-house-price-index

[DulwichLondoner]

Average price indices are utterly unless you know how they are constructed and how they adjust for property size or characteristics: with a flawed methodology, the ?average? may go up simply because more large detached houses than one-bed flats were sold in a given period. For example, the ONS uses a geometric mean and adjusts for a number of characteristics. https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/about-the-uk-house-price-index/about-the-uk-house-price-index

Southwark is also a very broad area; London Bridge, Borough, East Dulwich, Gipsy Hill etc are all in Southwark but are all very different markets.

My impression is that, for 2 to 3 beds below the ?900k mark, prices have stopped rising but have not plummeted. Maybe gone down slightly but not plummeted, whereas volumes have collapsed ? i.e. considerably fewer properties are being sold. However, this seems to be true in most of London. It?s hard to tell how much is Brexit, how much the stamp duty, how much the new tax treatment of buy-to-lets, etc. I have also seen quite a few properties, in Dulwich but not only, that go on sale for a certain price, get reduced a few times, then get pulled from the market altogether; checking the land registry after 4-6 months shows they have not been sold. This makes me wonder how many of the properties advertised as ?sold? may have, in fact, simply been pulled from the market.

It will be interesting to see how many units in the two newbuilds in the area (one next to the gym on Crystal palace road, the other next to the ED train station) will be sold, and at what price. I seem to remember asking prices of ca. ?600k for 2-bed flats, whereas most 2-bed flats seem to be on sale between ?480 - ? 520k. Also, no first-time buyer would ever pay, say, ?510 or ?520k, because by going above ?500k they?d lose the discount on the stamp duty.

[Champ]

The housing market has without doubt stagnated over the last few months. Political instability has played a big part in this as uncertainty has put a lot of people off buying. Clearly this is why the government introduced the stamp duty incentive for first time buyers but it doesn't seem to have had much effect as yet. But its not only the housing market in Southwark that is suffering as we are struggling to sell a flat in Tower Hamlets, and all the houses on Rightmove in the area we are buying in (North London) are all significantly reduced. Its hard to tell if prices have actually dropped or if people were just overly optimistic about the value of their properties / led on by estate agents trying to get their business.

[Penguin68]

I suspect that increased interest rates, increased price inflation and continuing low wage inflation have led to some buyer uncertainty - and the drop-off in high end sales to overseas buyers has had a knock-on effect on those planning to sell these and re-buy lower value properties. Together with those things listed above. And it's not exactly house buying season quite yet. A slow-down in house price inflation locally is probably a good thing - children are not then forced to move far away from their home turf because they cannot afford to buy locally, and there is some slight increase in chance for people to get on the housing ladder.

If you want to track 'average' prices look at what particular types of housing are doing, rather than 'averaged' house prices in complex local authority areas. Housing type tends to be more area sensitive - 3/4 bed semis I would guess across Southwark are more similar than a 3/4 bed penthouse flat on the river compared with a semi, even in E. Dulwich.

[DulwichLondoner]

Champ Wrote:

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> The housing market has without doubt stagnated

> over the last few months.

Could we please, please pretty please, at least for a moment, stop pretending that ever-skyrocketing house prices are good for all, and adjust our language accordingly?

How about 'stable' prices rather than 'stagnant', for example?

If you have a 2nd property you wish to sell, or if you want to move somewhere much cheaper (eg abroad), you want prices to go up. So do you if you need your LTV to come down in order to get a better rate on your mortgage. But, in all other circumstances, 'stable' prices is not necessarily a bad thing. Let's not forget that one reason the previous generations managed to buy more easily is that inflation eroded the real value of their debt.

[froggy9]

The London house market growth forecast is slowing down, but overall the value in Dulwich compared to other zone 2 areas is rather good. You can get some better value properties if you are willing to be a bit further away from the station.

That is through Foxtons........

If you are looking for a good value new build, see the new local developments and speak to them, buying off plan could be an option to obtain better value, or purchasing at the end of the developers financial year, as they will want to get sell. I am not encouraged to buy from MYN developments as I have had a lot of negative experience with them.

[Champ]

DulwichLondoner Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> Champ Wrote:

> --------------------------------------------------

> -----

> > The housing market has without doubt stagnated

> > over the last few months.

>

> Could we please, please pretty please, at least

> for a moment, stop pretending that

> ever-skyrocketing house prices are good for all,

> and adjust our language accordingly?

>

> How about 'stable' prices rather than 'stagnant',

> for example?

>

> If you have a 2nd property you wish to sell, or if

> you want to move somewhere much cheaper (eg

> abroad), you want prices to go up. So do you if

> you need your LTV to come down in order to get a

> better rate on your mortgage. But, in all other

> circumstances, 'stable' prices is not necessarily

> a bad thing. Let's not forget that one reason the

> previous generations managed to buy more easily is

> that inflation eroded the real value of their

> debt.

Just to clarify I used the word stagnant to reflect there is little activity in the housing market in general. Yes prices seem stable but also there are fewer people looking to buy and this isn't solely down to it being winter. I was told this from three different estate agents so perhaps not the most reliable sources but that seems to be the consensus.

[Louisa]

Once some clarity over the Brexit position becomes apparent, we may start seeing the market moving again. Currently there is just too much uncertainty to guarantee stability. If, as I suspect, a no confidence vote emerges from parliament over the Brexit deal, the government could collapse and/or survive on the promise of a second EU referendum. Something big like this has to happen to improve certainty in the market.

Louisa.

[Earl Aelfheah]

I would 'guestimate' that prices have dropped around 10% on this time last year. Houses of the type that were going for around a milllion a year ago, appear to be selling at more like 900K now. Not based on any in depth research of course, but that's what it looks like to me.

[DulwichLondoner]

I'd also guess that 2-bed properties sell more easily than larger ones. Quite banally, 2-bed appeal more to first-time buyers, for whom the alternative is renting. 3+beds tend to be bought by people who are trying to upsize. It is easier to find arguments in favour of renting over buying, than in favour of upsizing vs staying put!

It will also be interesting to see if there will be waves of forced sales as amateur buy-to-let landlords struggle to refinance their interest-only mortgages, with the new rules on affordability, new tax rules etc., and may be forced to sell.

[ianr]

FoxRed wrote today at 07:11PM

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> There are four-floor, four bedroom, brand new

> houses in ED on offer for ?1.5m in Upland Road.

> Mind you, they have been on since the summer and

> still empty.

FoxRed, why have you registered on the forum today, to make two posts in threads both of which which haven't been live for two years? Do you live in the area? In the UK?