Are the Conservatives broken or loving this !

[thomastillingthe3rd]

Now as James B is probably not allowed to start a thread that in anyway admonishes members of their new party so I will.

Yes they are loving it ....although this cracker below will wipe the smile of their little bloody faces.

Financial titan Terry Smith's Tullett Prebon brokerage today issued the most pessimistic forecast for the UK economy from a City institution in months.

In a hard-hitting advisory note to clients entitled "No way out? Why the British economy is in very deep trouble", Tullett Prebon warned clients the outlook for growth was "exceptionally bleak" due to Britain's addiction to householders' debt and public spending.

Now people are winding down their debts and the taps have been turned off public spending, the economy has little chance of recovering any time soon, the report argues.

Tullett claims 58% of economic output is now from sectors dependent on either debt or public spending: property, finance, health, education, construction and public administration.

"These sectors are now set to contract rather than expand, which renders economic growth implausible And, without growth, there may be no way of avoiding a debt disaster."

Chancellor George Osborne and the Opposition are both basing their policies on the assumption that somehow growth can be restored, writes Tullett economist Dr Tim Morgan. However, he adds: "We see no reason whatever to assume this." Morgan is extremely pessimistic about the Government's debt reduction strategy, not because he is opposed to it - he agrees it is vital to cut Britain's deficit - but because of the "mathematical implausibility" of the economy reaching the 2.8% growth rate that the plan depends upon.

"If this doesn't happen - and we are convinced it can't - the deficit reduction plan will come apart at the seams."

Morgan said: "There is no such thing as a pain-free recession but people think we've just had one. The only reason we got through it was Government borrowing replaced private borrrowing, but that has now stopped."

He said living standards could continue falling for another five years with inflation staying high and pay barely rising. The pain would be worst for pensioners and people in moderately paid work with mortgages.

Although Britain might avoid double-dip recession it will "flat-line" for the foreseeable future with feeble growth of 1% a year or less, not enough to generate the taxes needed to cut the deficit.

He added: "You don't need to look far between the lines to see that the Government's deficit reduction plans just don't work."

Tullett director Michael Fallon is a senior Conservative MP on the Treasury Select Committee.

[thomastillingthe3rd]

Oh and Huguenot I know that my comings and goings are somewhat difficult for you to see, but LOOK -

Financial titan Terry Smith's opinion is basically that Huguenot, East Dulwich's own financial Phil Gramm, has been talking out of his batty since time !

brap brap brap.

[Marmora Man]

TT3 - time will tell. Your cut and paste job is neither surprising nor any more accurate a forecast of the future economy than any onne of thousands available from various financial pundits.

On balance I believe the Coalition's approach remains correct and will be validated over time.

You have certainly not made any case for the title of your thread - the Conservatives are not broken and the idea that they are "loving this" is some kind of strange left wing fantasy based on an unreal caricature of the Conservative party.

[Huguenot]

I don't know what tt3 said, nor am I interested, but I was intrigued by James B's assertion that Labour councils are kind of 'over-cutting' and salting money away to inactivity (I think 9 million was the figure for Southwark).

If this is the case, I think it deserves looking into.

It would suggest that Labour are the ones 'loving it', and prepared to cut back on vital services in order to drive forward a political attack.

[DJKillaQueen]

To comment on a thread when you haven't read the OP Huguenot is a bit ignorant don't you think?

It's not new news that the economy is flatlining. All the recent figures show this with some shrinkage in some areas. It something we probably can't do a lot about at the moment either, and the deficit is something that whatever party in power would have had to address. The difference would have been in the distribution of 'pain'. Labour would not have made the poorest pay as much as the coalition are doing for example. And for me there are moral arguments to be had there.

Are the Conservatives broken? Not looking at the recent local election results they aren't. Whether that is the result of a seemigly inneffective opposition or the implosion of Lib Dem support is impossible to measure but come general election time I think we'll be in a different place with the full effect of public service sector cuts being felt - so too early to answer that one I think.

As for the 9m Huguenot. That is just 2.4 % of Southwarks annual spend so perhaps not quite the scandal you seem to want imply. The councils approach to realising cuts is by looking at efficiency savings within middle management and above. They have a pledge to make sure that front line services do not bear the brunt of these custs.

But if you want to look at waste then you might prefer to look at the diabolical number of expensive contracts the last council locked Southwark into (an area that definitely needs reforming). I've talked about the poor value of the call centre elsewhere but even something like estates parking management is another example of an overpriced contract yielding too little return. That is something the current council are looking at and there is broad support for the view that in future it would be worth using skilled specialists in contract matters to make sure the council isn't overpaying for it's outsourced services.

[Huguenot]

WTF? Are you for real?

DJKQ it is entirely normal to respond to a comment by a previous poster on a thread. I was responding to Marmora Man's point about whether the Conservatives were 'loving' the cuts.

If that makes me 'ignorant' then it makes every poster on this forum 'ignorant' including yourself. In fact, I don't think it makes me or them ignorant, it just makes you a sanctimonious dickhead who would be wiser to look to herself before calling people names.

Neither was I implying that the 9m salted away is a scandal - I was highlighting that Labour cannot take the Tories to task for cuts in services if Labour are actually cutting them further than necessary.

And in fact I was never talking about 'waste' either, that'll be you doing that.

What I was highlighting is Labour hypocrisy. So you can put your snotty comments up whichever orifice they'd feel most at home.

[DJKillaQueen]

Whatever Huguenot...the only dickhead is you....hissy fit central everytime someone gives you as good as you give them. That's your real issue with TTT3 ...nothing more.

And as for Labour hypocracy...the local council had been Lib Dem controlled for eight years.....but then what would you know about the current local Labour council? When did you last have a conversation with any local councillor about anything or attend a local council meeting? But just to make you happy I will find out directly for you just what the thinking behind the 9m contingency offset is.....because after all, wiki and google can't help you there.

[James Barber]

This financial year Southwark Labour has had to make cut of seven % so adding an extra avoidable 2.6% onto that is a scandal.

Its a real fiction that ?9M unnecessary savings put into contingency hasn't affected front line services. The streets are now swept once a month rather than fortnightly. Litter picking in Southwark is no longer daily by every other day. A dozen day centres have been closed. Holmhurst House is being closed a local day centre for Southwarks older people with dementia - with an aging population a specialist centre we'll need more of in the future. Lots and lots of other unnecessary front line cuts.

NB. The Lib Dems proposed a budget signed of by the Finance Director as perfectly feasible which didn't make such cuts or put money into reserves.

Even the tories proposed dramatically less cuts - so we have a Labour budget more right wing than the tories!

But back to the thread. Are the tories broken. Clearly not. Labour got the nation in such a debt pickle that it will take up to a generation to fully recover - voters wont forget that quickly. With the SNP appearing to wipe out opposition support in Scotland Labour wont have sufficient MPs to take the tories on on their own making the tories much safer.

[DJKillaQueen]

Tbf the level of cuts required are so high that something was always going to be lost. Litter picking can live with a reduced service. But with regards to day centres James, you know as well as I do that those that use them are transferred to other day centres. In the case of Holmhurst that is Fred Francis Day Centre which is nearby. Also Holmhurst is a converted house and is not suitable long term for this kind of service. There are often valid reasons for the decisions that are taken and the important thing to note is that the other day centres nearby can cope with the former users of Holmhurst.

Labour did not get the country into a debt pickle James. The debt Pickle started in the 80's with the advent of cheap borrowing and I think you'll find that was a global trend and oh yes...we were under a Tory government then.

Maybe just for once you can be balanced in your commnets and agree that both the Thatcher and Blair governments were equally culpable in building our economy on a bed of debt, both to blame for the deregulation of banking (started under Thatcher - continued by Brown), both to blame for burying their heads in the sand when warned and both equally gutless when it came to standing up to big business, the banks and global conglomerates. And we aren't seeing anything from the coalition either that is about to change any of that soon.....because it is of course extremely difficult to change any of that now, especially without some kind of international agreement.

[????]

Tullett Prebon warned clients the outlook for growth was "exceptionally bleak" due to Britain's addiction to householders' debt and public spending. ....

and that's the Conservatives fault is it?

Of course we are in the shite, we've an overmollycoddled population, unsustainable public spending commitments given demographic changes ...the only way out of this is becoming more competitive and entersprising....taxing the shite out of entrepreneurs, successfull businesses whilst maintianing unsustaianable public sector rights/pensions and spending designed for very different circumstances is not

...Labour and the Left and the majority, but not all, Unions, certainly don't seem to have grasped any of this

[katie1997]

Has some mysterious being been editing the posts a bit further up on this thread?

Honestly, you have to be quick off the mark in the ole Drawing Room these days, eh? No poppping out to Homemade for a quick coffee, best get your reply in.

[Ridgley]

It?s a little early to say if the conservative are broken, as the Lib/Dems are baring the brunt of all this. The cuts are now beginning to bite I think the members of the public know it has to be done but it does not mean I agree on the way they are going about it they still need to be more in tune and listen to the mood of the people the Tories have a track record of being apathetic still early days.

[Loz]

Ridgley Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> [...] they still need to be more in

> tune and listen to the mood of the people

Unfortunately, most people tend to take two opinions here:

1) "I don't mind cuts, but don't cut areas that affect me."

2) "Increase taxes on The Rich." (The Rich is generally relatively defined as "people who have more money than me".)

The Tories are nowhere near broken. I think that if an election were held tomorrow, we would have a full Tory government voted in, based on the fact that Labour not yet regained credibility (and electing Mr Invisible has not really helped there) combined with the fact that they no money to fight an election campaign anyway.

[Brendan]

Loz Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> I think that

> if an election were held tomorrow, we would have a

> full Tory government voted in, based on the fact

> that most people are fukwits.

Fixed that for you.

[Brendan]

That really isn?t the sort of flippancy and bad language which befits the Drawing Room now is it Brendan?

[Brendan]

Well exactly what sort of flippancy and bad language would befit it then?

[Loz]

He's finally flipped.

[James Barber]

Hi DJKilla Queen,

Mixing dementia and similar from Holmhurst with other fully capably older people at the Fred Francis Centre isn't ideal.

The specialisms of each will become more blurred. This is not in the interests of the users. And at no point in the past have the wrokers at Holmhurst said please find us a different building.

Sweeping our street every month is already making them look rubbish. We know from the broken window theory research that this risks more crime. Also if this decision was going to be made doing it to take affect after the Olympics would ensure our streets looked better for when London has more visitors.

Thatcher eased credit. But the John Major govt was reducing national debt when he lost in 1997. Brown released credit hugely and when the economy was doing well borrowed heavily - hugely irresponsible - he even said with huge arrogance while doing it that he'd removed boom and bust from our economy. He created the huge boom and now we have the huge bust.

Germany, scandinavian, australia countries have no bust going on now. The economic problems are limited to a few western countries.

[DJKillaQueen]

Hmm but wasn't it Leon Britain that said we'd be rich for ever...oh and then there was Black Monday....boom and bust can NOT be laid solely at Browns door. He was just another in a line of both Tory and Labour chancellors who were eqully guilty of poor economic management. 300,000 people lost their homes in the recession of the late eighties - Brown had nothing to do with that. Both parties have a lot to answer for imo and let's not forget that the banks were the architects of this latest crisis before anything else.

Regarding Holmhurst...it's not going to be suitable as a day centre in the long term anyway because of the type of building it is. I can't see any reason why, as long as the appropriate staff are there, that any kind of patient can't be accomodated at any venue. There were several reports exploring the feasibility of the closure of Holmhurst and all of them give very good arguments for the closure with little doubt that the patients can't be equally well catered for elsewhere. But the important thing to note in all of the changes being made is that no patient is losing their care service.

Broken windows have nothing to do with litter James. That theory is the basis that dereliction encourages further vandalism but we hardly live in an area that is derelict or vandalised. Litter does not induce crime and is also avoidable in the main. Remember the keep Britian Tidy campaign of the 70s? That was a decade were the streets were truly litter strewn. We have come a long way since then.

[Goodkick]

....!!!B)

[Huguenot]

You think we're not rich?

There's people just across the water from me (so shallow you could almost wade it) getting by on $10 a week with a life expectancy of 35 years - and in ED you've got 10 year old kids getting mugged for their $800 smartphone and $1500 laptop.

The unemployed are whingeing because they're bored with the 40 games on their Sony Playstation, and the healthy are complaining about a 3 month waiting list on cosmetic surgery.

The homeless are pissed off that they need to wait for a four bedroom house by living in a hotel.

14 year-olds are so scornful of education that they feel it gets in the way of buying jewellery and drinking Absolut, and parents are so scornful about the widespread availability of quality food that they shove burgers through the school gates.

You think we're not rich?

[Goodkick]

..

[Huguenot]

Goodkick, I think you're a mentalist. Fuck off.

[James Barber]

Hi DJKilla Queen,

You haven't read the Dutch pear reviewed research on broken windows theory - litter is part of the driver for more propenstiy to commit crime.

Banks don't invent the legislative framework they work within. Govts lead by politicians do that. Thatcher eased the framework, brown eased it a lot more.

Closing 12 day centres which largely catered for particular ethnic groups. Some might go to one of the 2 left but my hunch along with the dozen centres is most wont. Sad that their social lives which are known to keep people healthier for long will be wrecked for many.

I'm spoken to one of the key workers at Holmhurst they take a different view to the council official report saying closing it was such a good thing.

[Pugwash]

The ground floor of Holmhurst was used as the Day centre, the upper floors are used by the Community Mental Health Team for Older People. Many of the users have been at Holmhurst for years and will be disorientated for a while in new premises. My understanding is that all the users are being reassessed as it was discovered that some had not ben placed by social services and therefore were not included in the community care charging process (effectively receiving free care whilst many other atendees were paying).

With the numbers increasing at FFrancis - it is possible that the Holmhurst people will not get the same number of days allocated to them.

Most day centres now have older people who are in varying stages of dementia - however those at Holmhurst tended to have Alzheimers or end stage dementia, some with challenging behaviour.

I would like to see Labour councillors vote for retaining day centres and scrapping the free meals for primary kids. Cutting back on day centres and similiar will have a massive effects on carers - depriving them of breaks, increasing their stress levels and ultimately forcing more people into care homes as carers physical and emotional health will eventually breakdown. There is a general agreement throughout the country that too many older people especially, are being force prematurely into care by the lack of community provisions. Southwark Council have been advised to cut back on the number of placements it makes and to keep people at home longer. The Tories (in Government) aided by Labour (Southwark)by a combination of cuts and ill thought out policies are determined to make life for the borough's older population more difficult.