House prices in ED - new Tribeca development overpriced?

[DulwichLondoner]

I hope this is the right section. I have been keeping an eye on house prices in ED for the last 18 months or so, e.g. I registered with RightMove for periodic emails about new properties.

My impressions are that:

1) Volumes have come down massively. There seem to be fewer properties in the market compared to, say, 3 years ago, and it tends to take longer to sell

2) More and more price reductions, which were almost unheard of 3-4 years ago

3) More and more properties end up not being sold at all. I also wonder if sometimes agents report them as sold when, in fact, it?s not true. I checked the land registry for some properties I had my eyes on, and they have not been sold, even though the price was reduced multiple times.

Of course I have not measured this ?scientifically? , and, as with all these things, there is always the risk that I may have only seen cases which are, in fact, unrepresentative. What are your impressions?

In this context, it seems odd that in the new development near the gym of Goose Green / Crystal Palace road (the ?Tribeca? ? no comment on the choice of name!) 1-bed flats are marketed at ? 480k ? a price I have typically seen for 2-bed flats. OK, it?s a new development, and this always carries a premium, but ?480k for a one-bed flat seems really excessive now.

Ah, the same email that notified me of the Tribeca development, also mentioned 4 other properties ? all reduced. Of 5 properties in the email, one was the Tribeca development, 4 had been reduced!

[edhistory]

I first read that as Treblinka until I looked more closely.

If I have it correctly this building has gone subterranean and is a special case.

Has anyone read the geo-technical report?

[Phlox]

You can register with Ourproperty.co.uk to be emailed sold prices of areas you are interested in.

[DulwichLondoner]

edhistory Wrote:

> If I have it correctly this building has gone

> subterranean and is a special case.

What do you mean, exactly?

[edhistory]

Is this the special build that has an underground car park and had piles driven in below garage level?

I remember some pile-driving machines.

The details should be on the Southwark Council web site.

[edhistory]

The technical stuff is here:

http://planbuild.southwark.gov.uk/documents/?casereference=16/AP/1381&system=DC

[DulwichLondoner]

Could someone make a summary for those ignorant in all things architectural like myself?

[Reg Smeeton]

> 1) Volumes have come down massively. There seem to

> be fewer properties in the market compared to,

> say, 3 years ago, and it tends to take longer to

> sell

Sales volumes might have gone down, but the number of properties on the market has rocketed.

In 2015 there were typically about 180 listed as for sale in SE22 on Rightmove. The current figure is 330, close to the highest I can remember it being.

[DulwichLondoner]

I'm not sure it's the right metric to look at.

The relevant ones would be the number of properties sold in a year (which should be publicly available from the land registry) and the unique number of properties marketed in a year (along with avg time to sale), which is probably not available.

It could well be that there are more properties now because now it takes longer to sell.

For example, you could even have (I'm making these numbers up) 700 properties marketed in 2015, with an avg of 150 on sale at any given time, and, say, 500 marketed in 2017, with an avg of 300 on sale at any given moment.

[AD]

There are two bed flats on for 750k, yes they look nice and a good spec.... but 750k for a two bed flat in the current climate is crazy.

[wee quinnie]

woah!

[dbboy]

1) Volumes have come down massively. There seem to be fewer properties in the market compared to, say, 3 years ago, and it tends to take longer to sell.

- Not sure about that, but agree selling is taking longer, however a one bed flat opposite and house across the road both have been sold, the flat in some 3 weeks and house in about 3 months.

2) More and more price reductions, which were almost unheard of 3-4 years ago

- Absolutely true, you can blame the estate agents for over valuing properties, resulting in the current spate of price reductions. Plus agents not marketing effectively to get viewings and ultimately a sale.

3) More and more properties end up not being sold at all. I also wonder if sometimes agents report them as sold when, in fact, it?s not true. I checked the land registry for some properties I had my eyes on, and they have not been sold, even though the price was reduced multiple times.

- Properties tend that have not sold either stay on the market till a buyer eventually pitches up or the vendor switches agents to keep the property fresh. However a property is only worth what someone is willing to pay, so prices may I fear have to drop still further.

In this context, it seems odd that in the new development near the gym of Goose Green / Crystal Palace road (the ?Tribeca? ?

- SE23 3AP a one bed flat was on at ?330K and has been sold quickly.

Hope this helps.

[DulwichLondoner]

Exactly! "These prices are insane" is a phrase most people have been saying for the last 8 years or so; however, as far as I can remember, this is the first time in 8 years that I see so many prices being reduced and properties remaining unsold.

[Reg Smeeton]

> It could well be that there are more properties

> now because now it takes longer to sell.

> For example, you could even have (I'm making these

> numbers up) 700 properties marketed in 2015, with

> an avg of 150 on sale at any given time, and, say,

> 500 marketed in 2017, with an avg of 300 on sale

> at any given moment.

Fair point, but I think the high number of properties on Rightmove is an indication that this is more of a buyers' market. With all that choice, buyers are able to make low bids - and there will be the occasional vendor who is desperate to sell and will accept. Wouldn't be surprised if a year from now we see prices 5% lower than they are now.

[Oldtincan]

I've read that given all the current uncertainty the Greater London market for flats/houses on the market >?600k has slowed significantly - hence all the reductions. Property on the market for less than ?600k is still shifting as they qualify for help to buy (shared ownership funded by the government). I was told by an estate agent in Dulwich that buy to letters have virtually disappeared since the 3% stamp surcharge was introduced while owner occupiers are now shifting the onus of higher stamp duty rates onto the sellers - particularly for houses priced at more than ?930k which now attract a higher stamp charge. What with the spectre of higher interest rates (3 of the 8 MPC members voted for a hike in the last meeting), 2 years of Brexit negotiations ahead of us and the potential for a Labour government (if May's alliance with the DUP breaks down) then risks are firmly to the downside. If I was the owner of the Tribeca development I?d be very very keen to off load them ASAP - so maybe a bargain beckons! But look on the bright side - perhaps our children will be able to afford a house after all!

[JMK]

Based on recent experience estate agents are keeping property advertised on their websites and also rightmove as "for sale" even though the vendor has withdrawn the property from the market ostensibly as the offers received are "significantly below the asking price"

For example, two flats continue to be advertised in the same block at ?675k and ?750k respectively however are no longer for sale

The last flat to sell in the block was on the market for a long time at ?600k, then reduced to ?550k and finally sold at ?507k at the end of last year

All three flats are almost identical in terms of floor plan/size and in a very good state of repair with no need for decoration or other works

Such behaviour is wholly misleading and yet another distortion in the market

Should we expect the government to act to make such behaviour a criminal offence and prosecute for miss-selling, misrepresentation and downright fraud?

What are local authorities doing in respect of enforcing trading standards regulations?

With today's technology there is no requirement for estate agents. A simple peer to peer website and app can match buyers and sellers with a de minimis cost of perhaps a couple of hundred pounds at most rather than the 2-4% that estate agents look to charge (?12.5-?25k based on average London house prices. NB such costs paid out of after tax income and often financed in the mortgage so in reality significantly higher; hence, an easy way to save money for buyers that can be more productively spent or invested instead of wasted in largely unnecessary fees).

This could and should be operated by the Land Registry on a not for profit basis.

All property transactions should be obliged to pass through here and all prices should be disclosed from the first listing to the final transaction price such that there is full transparency of the price discovery process including any offers which are not successful.

Parties can also opt for an estate agent should they choose in addition to this and all their fees should be regulated and disclosed. Some people may need to use an intermediary or find it helpful which is understandable and their right to opt for and pay for such a service. However, the wider public benefit of price and fee transparency and the obligation to use the not for profit website should be considered pre-eminent.

Equally the Land Registry should immediately increase its frequency of updating the disclosure of transactions on its current system as the delay of 2 1/2 months is wholly inadequate and not fit for purpose

[edhistory]

JMK Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

>

> For example, two flats continue to be advertised

> in the same block at ?675k and ?750k respectively

> however are no longer for sale

>

> The last flat to sell in the block was on the

> market for a long time at ?600k, then reduced to

> ?550k and finally sold at ?507k at the end of last

> year

>

> All three flats are almost identical in terms of

> floor plan/size and in a very good state of repair

> with no need for decoration or other works

Are these East Dulwich properties?

[alex_b]

I'm not sure I believe that the market is as dire as suggested. Two of our neighbors both sold their flats at above asking on the first day of viewings.

[DulwichLondoner]

alex_b Wrote:

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> I'm not sure I believe that the market is as dire

> as suggested. Two of our neighbors both sold their

> flats at above asking on the first day of

> viewings.

Can I ask roughly where, how many bedrooms and what price range?

Let me talk some numbers to be more precise.

4 years ago you could buy a decent, non-ex council 2-bedroom flat in ED for ?300-350k and a 3-bedroom flat for around ?450-500 (flats, no garden).

I see that 2-bed flats with no garden now sell between ?450-500k (actual sale price, not asking price).

I am not sure where 3-beds sell, but I have seen many ads of 'fake' 3-bedroom flats, in which the 3rd bedroom has room for only a cot, not even an adult single bed, at ?700-750k. Is the extra space for a cot only (which I struggle to call a room as a child wouldn't even have room to play) worth 50% more than a 2-bed? Methinksnot.

What are your views / recollections / experiences about prices now vs 4 years ago?

[HelBel65]

Bought my 2 bed garden flat in SE22 in 2012 for 295k. I loved it at first sight but it had languished on the market for a long time by then, so I snapped it up with ease. Could never understand it and just put it down to insufficient demand at the time. Would really struggle to buy it now, and my income has increased a fair bit since then.

[Jeremy]

Ever since I've lived round here (15 years), every time a new housing development has been built, I've been shocked at the prices. I guess developers always try it on, and try to max out the "luxury" angle in the advertising, etc.

But they all sell. Sometimes they might take a couple of months, but they sell. The only one I can remember being a complete disaster was those 4 duplex flats on Underhill Road.

[alex_b]

DulwichLondoner Wrote:

> Can I ask roughly where, how many bedrooms and

> what price range?

Adys Rd (yes I know it's stretching the ED definition but just up the road from the Tribeca development). 2 bed (no garden) and 3 bed (with garden) in Victorian properties at around the ?700k mark.

> What are your views / recollections / experiences

> about prices now vs 4 years ago?

We've only been here 3 years, certainly there seems to be less stock than when we were looking, but asking prices seem to be about 25-30% higher.

[edhistory]

> Adys Rd (yes I know it's stretching the ED definition but just up the road from the Tribeca development).

Not really stretching as St John's is the East Dulwich parish church, and Adys Road is in East Dulwich Parish.

[Jeremy]

edhistory Wrote:

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> Not really stretching as St John's is the East

> Dulwich parish church, and Adys Road is in East

> Dulwich Parish.

This one never gets old! Always fascinating.

But serious question (I may regret this), why are you indicating that the Church geographical structure is more relevant than the Royal Mail? And presenting this as fact rather than opinion? Both organisations will eventually die out of course, but at least the Royal Mail is still vaguely relevant to most of us.

[DulwichLondoner]

Let's try to stay on topic, please!