Egypt & Libya

[louisiana]

As Harold Wilson might have said, two weeks is a long time in politics. :)

[zeban]

Good for the Egyptian people

[david_carnell]

We are entering a period of flux for the region.

Egypt's relations with the West, Israel and its neighbours will be determined by what happens next. The role of the armed forces, both in the coup and in the future will be closely studied. As yet, Egyptians do not have anything approaching a free democracy.

I'll be submitting something more thoughtful and lengthy over the weekend after digesting some further reading.

[zeban]

Why the emphasis on 'We' DC? - you know , every country is not determined by it's role in relation to the West. It's so arrogant. Yes it remains to be seen how all of this turns out but the Egyptians are fully aware of this and I for one am remaining positive. In so far as an achievement, it's pretty well done I'd say.

[louisiana]

Did that Egyptian guy on the radio (in the street) just say "Thank you Facebook!"?

[zeban]

I'm not sure but I wouldn't be surprised as social media played a large role in spreading the word

[louisiana]

zeban, has it already been dubbed 'the twitter revolution"? :)

[zeban]

Twitter/Facebook/social media

Anyway, It's amazing what can happen when people stop bitching and become pro-active!!

[louisiana]

Direct action is a great thing, zeban.

[louisiana]

Omar Suleiman

(1936?) 02011-01-29 January 29, 2011 02011-02-11 February 11, 2011 Vice President

Vacant (February 11, 2011-present)

Omar Suleiman (Arabic: عمر سليمان‎, Egyptian Arabic pronunciation: [ˈʕomɑɾ seleˈm?ːn]; born July 2, 1936) was for 18 years head of Egypt's national intelligence agency and for 13 days in early 2011 the Vice President of Egypt. President Hosni Mubarak appointed Suleiman Vice President on January 29, 2011, and he served until February 11, 2011, when Egypt's military assumed power.[3] On February 10, 2011, according to Egypt's ambassador to the U.S., Suleiman was made de facto head of state under Egypt's constitution, assuming all presidential powers.[4] The following day Suleiman announced Mubarak's resignation and governing power was transferred to the Armed Forces Supreme Council.[5]

***

Muhammad Hosni Sayyid Mubarak (Arabic: محمد حسني سيد مبارك‎, Egyptian Arabic pronunciation: [m?ˈħ?mː?d ˈħosni ˈs?jːed moˈbɑːɾɑk], Muḥammad Ḥusnī Sayyid Mubārak; born May 4, 1928[1]) is a former President of Egypt, serving from 1981 to 2011.

He was appointed vice president in 1975, and assumed the Presidency on October 14, 1981, following the assassination of President Anwar El Sadat. He is the longest-serving Egyptian ruler since Muhammad Ali Pasha. Before he entered politics Mubarak was a career officer in the Egyptian Air Force, serving as its commander from 1972 to 1975.

Beginning with the 2011 Egyptian protests on January 25, 2011, protesters called for his resignation as president of Egypt.[2] On February 1, 2011, Mubarak announced that he would not seek another term in the 2011 Egyptian presidential election.[3] On February 5, 2011, Egyptian state media reported that senior members of the ruling National Democratic Party, including Mubarak, had resigned from leadership roles within the party.[4]

On February 11, 2011, Vice President Omar Suleiman announced that Mubarak had resigned as President of Egypt, transferring authority to the Higher Council of the Armed Forces, following 18 days of protests challenging his thirty-year rule.[5][6]

***

Consistent Verb Tense - Mubarak's Resignation

Please correct some of the verb tense errors in the passage on the protests, they are phrased as if they are occuring in the present (which they are, of course, but it isn't it more future-proof to state them in the past tense?)

On February 1, 2011, Hosni Mubarak announced that he would (instead of will) not contest the Presidential election in September 2011. ... On February 10, 2011, it was suggested that Mubarak might (instead of may) step down imminently.[49] ... At the same time, it was also confirmed that there was (instead of is) room for his resignation in the days and weeks following (instead of to come).

***

Where would we be without Wikipedia?

I'm all in favour of correct use of verb tenses during the unfolding of history ...

[fyvum]

We should steam in there and get the Suez canal back whilst they are busy posting on the net.

[Jah Lush]

‎It is foolish for the chickens to celebrate now that the fox is in charge of designing the chicken coop. And we all know who the fox is don't we?

[zeban]

David Carnell, you might be interested to read this

http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2011/feb/13/west-no-longer-honest-broker-peace

[david_carnell]

Zeban - relax. I used "we" as in the world. A clumsy use of syntax but nothing more sinister and not some western-centric neo-colonial nonsense to get your knickers in a twist over.

And since when was Gary Younge an expert in middle-eastern or North African politics?

[Ridgley]

The Americans and the British, should stay out of it will be interesting to see what develops and who comes to power and if the reports on the radio are correct there seems to be a knock on effect as there are protesting going on in Iran.

[david_carnell]

No, the Americans and the British should not stay out of it. They should offer their support and aid to establish a stable democracy and work with the new government for the benefit of the region and to ensure that access to the suez canal remains viable in the long-term.

As for the knock-on effect, my money would be on Yemen next. Few western journalists reporting large demonstrations there.

[Ridgley]

As long as it just, support not interfering the Egyptians should decide for themselves.

[mockney piers]

I'm pretty sure those selfsame Iranian protesters think that they kicked off the whole movement rather their current protests happening as a result of other freedom movements.

We have no clue what is going to happen in Egypt. So far the figuerhead for a civilian autocracy almost entirely composed of military folk, enabled as much by the army as by the secret police, has stepped down in favour of a blatant military rule making vague noises about constitutional reform.

Good luck to them I say but regimes where the state and the military are effectively one havent got a great record in rescinding power (see more countries than you can shake a stick at).

Iran may yet have the best chance of genuine democracy, but it's not going to happen there without serious bloodshed. The army and revolutionary guard are tools of the state rather than the state an expression of the military. There are real power plays going on in the complex make-up of the state, which may just give enough room for manoevre for a popular movement to take hold. They've done it before when overthrowing the US puppet regime, and this time there's no Saddam to invade and ensure that the coup by the mullahs can consolidate.

So best of luck to the Iranians too, god knows they'll need it.

[Ridgley]

I agree with MP the Iranians, have a different road a head of them they have Muslims extremist in power and like you said there will be blood shed and god knows how messy this will be I hope the Iranian people will over come this.

[zeban]

Me too Ridgely

[mockney piers]

I wouldn't say it's ruled by Muslim extremists. It is ruled by traditionalists which is a very different thing.

The problem is that the the moderates and liberal reformers had been in charge and the conservatives thought they could use the zeal and demagoguery of Ahmedinajad to unite the conservative/rural/religious vote.

Thing is the reason he won was a protest vote aimed at the economic mismanagement, and his power brokers seriously underestimated what Ahm' was capable of politically. The comparisons with Hitler here are more convincing as he loses and fixes the election and used intimidation and violence to quell the protests.

The theocrats are scared because he marshalled the power of the Basij and revolutionary guards which are supposed to be totally subordinate to them.

So a ruthless nutter holds the presidency, the moderates have been kicked out and the conservatives hold power.

Extremism is the wrong label though.

[nashoi]

Though there have been widespread allegations of fraud regarding the 2009 Iranian elections, none of them have been substantiated have they? The result matched pre-election polls and I remember even commentators such as Robert Fisk stated that some liberals inside Iran admitted Ahmadinejad may actually have won regardless of the vote rigging. Legitimate winner or not, millions of Iranians do seem to have voted for a ruthless conservative nutter.

This is worrying when considering Egypt as the Iranians are significantly wealthier, significantly more literate and far more urbanized than their Egyptian counterparts. On the one hand, there is no Ayatollah Khomeini figure waiting in the wings, on the other all of the above. Things look pretty grim to me.

@Mockney Piers

Nice work getting Hitler in there, but to win Forum bingo you need to get the MIC, the Catholic Church and the Nazis all into the same post. If you get killer sharks in there as well you win a job on satellite television. Given that Mubarak is now in Sharm el Sheikh I reckon it should be doable. Looking back those attacks before Christmas were clearly a CIA shark assassin gone rogue.

[mockney piers]

I know you're poking fun, but I thought carefully before risking an invocation of Godwin.

The media (particularly certain parts of it) portrays an unbalanced picture of Iran, and the comparisons betwenn Ahm' and Hitler are tossed around casually and inappropriately. I've complained about it before, but i thought here there was a parallel to be drawn in that the power brokers (for Ali Khamenei read Hindenburg and Von Papen) thought they could use him, but ended up seriously underestimating him and paying the price.

Anyway we'll see how things progress. And yes he may well have won the election without the fraud, but that and the subsequent use of violence somewhat undermine any claims to validity dont they.

Plus I don't think anyone voted for him *because* he's a nutter; they vote for him because the rhetoric speaks to those who felt disenfranchised as the country moved in a liberal direction without consulting them.

Hmmm, I wonder if acumenman would vote for him.

[david_carnell]

An interesting interview with historian Niall Ferguson on MSNBC discussing Egypt and launching a scathing attack on US foreign policy and NSC intelligence.

 

[david_carnell]

Not about Egypt, but Libya this time.

The Telegraph carrying an interesting viewpoint on the "botched" MI6/SAS mission.