Brexit View

[cella]

We are contractually obliged to pay our debts as Philip Hammond has been at pains to point out all along the way. Our reputation, such as it is, would be further sullied if we left without paying. Who would trade with us in future if that were the case?

[JohnL]

We will get Visa free travel to the EU no matter what (Sky News just reported).

But that doesn't mean freedom of movement - just that we have a scheme like the US I think.

[JohnL]

Oh Gawd - the EU described Gibraltar as a colony and it's all going to kick off.

More time-wasting and headline generating ?

[JohnL]

Adam Boulton: Are you stockpiling, I know people who are.

He's married to Anji Hunter - Tony Blair's old spin doctor so I reckon the Blair set are :)

[robbin]

I know some nutters as well - but none that are 'stockpiling'! What on earth are they stocking up on, I wonder!

[keano77]

Project fear 1 million and 10-ish.

Tomorrow?s The Sunday Times talking about plans to evacuate the Queen and other Royals in the event of a no-deal.

Please, give us a rest

[Alan Medic]

You think the possibility of food shortages is a project of fear and has no basis in the potential reality of exiting the EU without a deal?

[JoeLeg]

Well, given that the Queen hasn?t really made a secret of the fact that she backs Bre it, I wouldn?t be surprised if she decided to run away and hide if it doesn?t go well.

[JohnL]

JoeLeg Wrote:

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> Well, given that the Queen hasn?t really made a

> secret of the fact that she backs Bre it, I

> wouldn?t be surprised if she decided to run away

> and hide if it doesn?t go well.

That was only one source (LauraK couldn't run with it due to the aingle source)

and the hat :)

[robbin]

Alan Medic Wrote:

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> You think the possibility of food shortages is a

> project of fear and has no basis in the potential

> reality of exiting the EU without a deal?

Yes. Obviously.

[Alan Medic]

robbin Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> Alan Medic Wrote:

> --------------------------------------------------

> -----

> > You think the possibility of food shortages is

> a

> > project of fear and has no basis in the

> potential

> > reality of exiting the EU without a deal?

>

>

> Yes. Obviously.

How did you reach that conclusion?

[robbin]

Common sense, mostly.

Have you reached a contrary view? If so, was it based solely on hysteria, or on something else (as well)?

[JohnL]

robbin Wrote:

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> Common sense, mostly.

>

> Have you reached a contrary view? If so, was it

> based solely on hysteria, or on something else (as

> well)?

Even if you believe that project fear is made up, beware the self fulfilling prophecy.

[Alan Medic]

robbin Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> Common sense, mostly.

>

> Have you reached a contrary view? If so, was it

> based solely on hysteria, or on something else (as

> well)?

I don't believe everything I read or hear, but I'm happy that those who have spoken of supply chain problems, weren't joking. It's not that long ago that KFC had to close many of its outlets due to a supply chain problem (no chicken). This was nothing to do with Brexit, but is a good example of how things can go wrong. Medicines are being stockpiled. Why is that happening?

This article is on the beeb's website today https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-47095011 If your view is based on 'common sense' I would say mine is too. Border checks cause delays seems pretty logical. What logic have you used?

[rendelharris]

robbin Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> Have you reached a contrary view? If so, was it

> based solely on hysteria, or on something else (as

> well)?

We're not going to starve, but:

"We could see the random disappearance of products and well-known brands from shelves because supply has been interrupted," Ian Wright, the CEO of the UK Food and Drink Federation, told CNN. "We won't run out of food, but you will find that your favorite brands are sometimes in short or no supply." (January 25th)

Or is he part of project fear as well? Also, in times of short supply, prices rise - just because goods will be on the shelves, the poorest may not be able to afford them. It's not going to be Armageddon, but neither do I think we should shrug it off as alarmism and "project fear" just because it'll probably be no more than a slight inconvenience for us in our relatively wealthy and well-supplied London bubble.

[malumbu]

Interesting article albeit from the glass is half empty perspective (well almost totally empty) https://www.globalgovernmentforum.com/albion-through-the-looking-glass-britains-political-madness/?utm_source=UK+Wider+Civil+Service+31+March+2015&utm_campaign=a6483b46d3-UKW_BrexitAnalysis_AIFIN_AISAS&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_e4b5027d47-a6483b46d3-193462461

An extract to whet your appetite (what have we learned?):

That a deal forged to address the absence of technological solutions can only be rescued by recourse to technological solutions.

That revealing the PM?s weakness increases her strength in negotiations.

That it?s undemocratic to invite people to vote, and that they?d riot if asked their opinion.

That we deny the far right power and influence by doing what they want.

As the White Queen noted in Through the Looking Glass, ?sometimes I?ve believed as many as six impossible things before breakfast.?

[JoeLeg]

Robbin - you might be astonished to learn how short some supply chains are for certain foodstuffs.

While I doubt we will look like 80?s-era Moscow, I can well imagine a few things running out temporarily and that being extrapolated by social media into some kind of existential crisis.

I personally don?t believe the govt has been honest enough with people over the likelihood of temporary disruptions in the event of No Deal, but then they?ve f?ed up almost the whole thing so far so it?s hardly surprising. It?s also hardly surprising that in the event of not enough clarity, people either leap to the worst possible conclusion, or assume that everything will be absolutely fine with no possibility of trouble. Neither point of view is realistic.

[robbin]

Spot-on JoeLeg.

There is obviously a likelihood of some short term supply delays for some (but probably not many) food products. I've never suggested otherwise. What I think is ludicrous is for people to say there will be 'food shortages' as if it will be 80s style Moscow supermarket shelves, or people starving for want of food in the shops.

I know we live in a privileged bubble and I accept that I'm more comfortably well off than most, but I think it is absurd for anyone to scare-monger (unless they have an agenda of course) along those lines. If a supply chain delay means I cannot have my preferred 75% cacao content Belgian chocolate and instead have to settle for just 60% (the horror!) then I don't think that sort of thing justifies waving my arms in the air and declaring that our civilisation is ending, or declaring a 'food shortage'. If M&S runs low on Spanish tomatoes, or apples, then I suppose I'll have to slum it by buying British, or South African produce, or one of those other sorts of products I understand may just about be able to make it to the shops as they will be unaffected by any temporary delays on an EU border. In extremis, I suppose I could forego tomatoes altogether, for a week or two, and have some cucumber or peppers instead. Hopefully I'll survive such trauma, if it happens.

If some food products are low or sold out for a month or two, I suspect my world will not end. Anyone who truly thinks that first world problems like this amount to a 'food shortage' then so be it, but I don't envy their lack of ability to cope with everyday minor inconveniences.

The most likely scenario leading to any shortages is that idiots on social media (either that have an axe to grind, or are just plain stupid) or the 24 hour news media itself, talk up the possibility of a 'food shortage' to such an extent that people start stocking up and thereby create a 'shortage' (for others). I'm sure some on here would like that to happen, but most would not. In my view it is sensible to plan for the worst case scenario if you are a government or a business, but equally it is reckless and anti-social to try to whip up hysteria about something that will never happen or which is extremely unlikely to happen.

[JohnL]

robbin Wrote:

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> The most likely scenario leading to any shortages

> is that idiots on social media (either that have

> an axe to grind, or are just plain stupid) or the

> 24 hour news media itself, talk up the possibility

> of a 'food shortage' to such an extent that people

> start stocking up and thereby create a 'shortage'

> (for others). I'm sure some on here would like

> that to happen, but most would not. In my view it

> is sensible to plan for the worst case scenario if

> you are a government or a business, but equally it

> is reckless and anti-social to try to whip up

> hysteria about something that will never happen or

> which is extremely unlikely to happen.

now who would whip up hysteria.

https://edition.cnn.com/2019/01/11/uk/no-deal-brexit-shops-additional-security-gbr-scli-intl/index.html

don't panic

[robbin]

More nonsense. When you read what is actually being said, it is clear that it amounts to b*gger all. It suits those with an agenda to spout about food shortages and civil unrest ('where's my preferred instant latte mixture in that cool French packaging??') by latching onto some comment from somebody in the context of worst case scenario contingency planning.

Do those people really equate a worst case planning scenario (planning for a scenario which might be incredibly unlikely to happen) with what will actually happen? I doubt they generally do (unless they are very weak minded)- it is far more likely they are mischief making, because it suits their arguments/prejudices.

Because a ship has lifeboats, that doesn't mean it is likely to sink. They are there as a precaution. Every time you get on a boat, normal people don't publicly stress about it sinking because someone has seen fit to think to fit it out with lifejackets or lifeboats.

I continue to detect something akin to glee from some posters on here, when some clown on social media, or on some other internet site, is reported to have 'warned' of some sort of 'catastrophe'. Postings then appear as some sort of gleeful, self-serving 'I told you so' - as if we are being told about something that is about to happen, rather than something which is extremely unlikely to happen. Do those people think we should not carry out any contingency planning?!

[robbin]

I know this will come as a disappointment to any of you who were hoping that those of us not killed in the civil unrest bloodbath (in March 2019) would perish from starvation...

"Most" EU goods will be waved through dozens of British ports to avoid any traffic delays if Britain leaves without a deal on 29 March.

Should Theresa May not secure a formal divorce agreement with the union, British businesses importing from the EU should have all goods subject to rest of the world checks, meaning they would have to give a full declaration and pay duty before they come over the border.

But in a bid to avoid huge traffic jams and delays, HMRC has announced transitional plans which will be in place for a year, where EU goods will be waved through as they are now.

The simplified procedures will be in place for three to six months before HMRC reviews them.

Officials have promised to give a 12-month notice period to businesses for any changes made to the procedures within that time period.

No-deal Brexit means Britain will trade with the EU on World Trade Organisation terms (WTO) which regulate global trade, with rules on import taxes and limits on the number of goods supplied to other countries.

The plans are in place to avoid congestion, but critics say it means officials won't know what is coming into Britain.

There are 21 locations which will allow EU products to come through without additional checks, including Liverpool, Portsmouth, Hull, the Channel Tunnel in Folkestone, Pembury and Tyne.

The simplified checks are available to businesses with an EORI number, which businesses were able to register for from December, who are based in the UK, and are importing from the EU into the UK.

Businesses importing controlled goods from the EU into the UK will have to complete a "simplified frontier declaration" before importing the goods, make sure they arrive with all supporting documentation and then send another supplementary declaration within a month of getting the goods.

Those importing standard goods will have to make a "customs declaration within your commercial records when the goods cross the border".

The businesses will then have to make a supplementary declaration about a month after the goods are received.

[Jenny1]

Robbin - you've already pointed out that any rise in food prices (even if fairly small, and hopefully temporary) will affect those on small incomes. Therefore it's sensible, if you have cash available, to stock up on non-perishable items you use regularly.

Do also remember that there are people - like myself - who already have a limited diet for medical reasons. Some substantial surgery a few years back means there are a lot of foods I can't digest. So it's sensible to make sure I have some supplies of the non-freah foods that I can eat, in case they're suddenly less available than normal.

My view is that our politicians are showing great irresponsibility. They should not have placed us in a position where these issues are even being discussed.

[diable rouge]

"Most" EU goods will be waved through dozens of British ports to avoid any traffic delays if Britain leaves without a deal on 29 March.

This must be that taking back control of our borders thingymajig that everyone keeps talking about...

[Alan Medic]

I don't know if anyone reads Peston, but this is interesting.

https://www.itv.com/news/2019-02-03/theresa-may-cannot-resist-pressure-to-delay-brexit/

This is the current UK government, which is probably a misnomer.

As for stockpiling, I believe it's a sensible measure if done over a period of time so as not to cause shortages before Brexit happens (if it does). It will in effect reduce demand for some products which may be in scarce supply.

[JohnL]

Not 100% Brexit but Sajid Javid got taken down by John Bercow when he couldn't be bothered to show up for the anti knife crime initiative.

Bercow is now out to reign this government in a bit at every opportunity it seems.

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/john-bercow-calls-on-rude-sajid-javid-to-up-his-game-after-he-misses-knife-crime-policy-grilling-in-a4057331.html