Brexit View

[StraferJack]

Trinnydad

you can say project fear all you like - that helps noone. And in the aftermath you simply going "whoops" isn't going to cut it. If "our" fears come to pass what will you do? You will blame someone and I think I know who

(if we crash out and there is little disruption I will be relieved and happily hold my hands up but then I won't have harmed anyone)

But is it project fear to say families who have lived here for decades have to pay hundreds of pounds to APPLY to stay here? Because that is reality. That is happening now. You think that's OK do you?

As for your repeated claim of ?49b despite being told it wasn't that much, here is the breakdown. Only perspective you need is that walking away from it destroys your credibility as a country

https://fullfact.org/europe/eu-divorce-bill/

[StraferJack]

"I?ve never looked into it but I don?t understand why there would be shortages of medicines. "

Of course you haven't keano

Medicines across the 28 EU states are licensed - everyone of those 28 member states has agreed to not change what's in them and because we are trade partners with license and agreements there is no need to keep checking

UK leaves the EU and becomes a third party - it is no longer covered by license agreements (because THAT'S WHAT IT WANTS! SWEET SWEET FREEDOM!!!)

No being covered means additional checks. Coupled with transportation disruptions, this leads to shortages. the EU aren't witholding or bullying anyone or anything

UK might argue "well we won't change anything in medicines. trust us. No need to be uptight old chaps"

But you will be trying to do a deal with USA remember? And they will want some of those medicines changed to fit with their different standards

[alex_b]

Ok, I?ll bite. I would be OK with the UK joining EFTA as an individual member and trying to join a customs union (or other customs facilitation agreement). I would hope to reach bilateral agreements on fisheries and agriculture either as part of the customs arrangement or separately. Broadly I?d hope to remain the status quo in both agreements. I don?t think it?s better than our current membership but we would have left the EU and it would protect us from the worst of the downsides. I think this is a plan the EU might agree to, although I don?t know if the other EFTA members would agree. It might be able to get through Parliament if Labour backed it, but otherwise not. At this stage the current withdrawal agreement would have to stand, though the political declaration would be rewritten.

Now I?ve made a proposal, how about one of the brexiteers gives their version of a proposal?

[JohnL]

StraferJack Wrote:

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> UK might argue "well we won't change anything in

> medicines. trust us. No need to be uptight old

> chaps"

But we're not paying any of our share of commitments we agreed to.

[StraferJack]

Alex - a lot of that sounds sensible. And if it's where we landed I wouldn't be too upset. But it asks an awful lot of too many countries to, again, "Trust us", when it will probably simply lead to outrage from brexiteers and those countries wathcing us have another meltdown for several more months (which we don't have)

John - sorry, I don't quite get the gist of what you are saying there. I think I agree with you and you are making same point as me?

[keano77]

I still don?t quite understand StraferJack.

Yes we will become a third country. But if we?re importing from the EU or the US or elsewhere checks are irrelevant. The EU pharmaceutical companies won?t be adulterating their own products. Checks only apply if we?re exporting to EU countries to their required standards.

I?m sure if we bunged the US a few billion and knocked it off our EU bill they?re be whizzing us chlorinated aspirins by container ship load.

[Cardelia]

JoeLeg Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> keano77 Wrote:

> --------------------------------------------------

> -----

> > I?ve never looked into it but I don?t

> understand

> > why there would be shortages of medicines.

> >

> > Do the EU gangsters control the supply, on some

> > country-lines basis? Why can?t we buy them from

> > elsewhere eg the US? The yanks pop pills until

> > they?re coming out of their ears so should have

> > plenty.

>

> I'm not entirely sure why this should be either -

> I can't see anyone being a jobsworth over

> life-saving medicines when it comes down to it.

> That said the pharmaceutical companies seem to

> think this is a thing, and the govt has slapped

> them all with NDA's, which says to me there's an

> issue somewhere.

It's because we don't manufacture many drugs in this country anymore. It's all been outsourced overseas, which means that we currently import medicines like insulin and salbutamol. If we crash out with no deal these sorts of drugs join the long list of "important stuff we get from other countries" which will need new trade agreements to be in place before we can have more.

[TheCat]

JoeLeg Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

>

> Promises about how easy it would be to negotiate a

> deal were made by the Leave campaign. Those

> promises are not being fulfilled, and it not up to

> those who voted otherwise to try and help -

> particularly when it's been made very clear for

> some time now that we should "shut up and accept

> it" - language which I think you would agree is

> only divisive (I concede that cuts both ways, and

> do not excuse either side in that respect). I also

> think it's credulous to blame the EU for playing

> hardball. Credulous and naive. Of course they

> would stick up fore themselves.

>

> I have no idea what's going to happen.

Its funny you know, we may be two sides of the same coin. I voted to Leave, and feel similarity as you do that whenever I have tried to voice what I perceive as my valid reasons at the time, that I have been 'drowned out'. You have bemoaned in previous comments the lack of reasonable debate, and the deeply held emotive nature of how people feel on this issue; which has actually made meaningful, constructive discussion impossible - I feel exactly the same.

My few attempts to engage on this thread specifically have been made in good faith to try to gain an understanding of differing viewpoints, and while there are a few posters who i have learnt something from, the general boorishness and judgement applied by the majority of the crowd in painting someone as either a Brexiteer or a Remoaner makes it largely pointless to try. I am not a 'Leaver' - I am a person who happened to vote Leave - I happen to be many other things,many of which probably make me different from other people who also voted to leave - and being ascribed every trait often associated with Leavers again makes sensible discussion almost impossible. So in that sense I share your despair.

In an vain attempt to pre-empt some of the criticisms from the crowd after clearly outing myself as a 'Leaver'....

- It was not an automatic/dogmatic choice for me. I am not 'blind to reason'. There are many positives and negatives on both sides. Which way soemeone voted is not necessarily always a matter of them being 'ill-informed', but is a measure of the relative importance one places on various likely outcomes, and also the level of risk tolerance one is comfortable with.

- I dont feel I was 'lied to', as campaign slogans didnt impact my decision at all. I read about 3-4 economic reports (IMF, PwC, Treasury) cover to cover, and more broadly tried to base my decisions on my own 'research' - such as it was.

- I don't want to see a decrease in migration at all. I just feel control over it is beneficial.

- I am resident in this country by virtue of my EU passport (I also have a commonwealth passport, which gave me the right to vote - but doesnt keep me here as a resident). So I certainly didn't vote out of any overwhelming self-interest.

- I would consider myself educated, and work in a job which requires detailed and comprehensive analysis of facts/figures/forecasts - this of course doesn't mean I 'know better', just to say that i don't feel I am ill-informed or ignorant person

- I will clearly say that this government has made a right hash of negotiations, and it is embarrassing

- No matter what you thought of Cameron and Osbourne, their Government seemed mildly competent, and this was the government I thought would manage this transition (even if Cameron was not there), but muppets now running the show have proven me wrong on that front.

- I stand by the reasons I voted the way I did at the time - even if you disagree with them, I feel they were well formed and rational.

- I dont know if I would change my vote if there was another vote today, I'd have to conduct a similar examination of what 'no deal' really means; and determine if I think the risks are worth any rewards that may come.

[StraferJack]

How will the medicines be transported to the UK? In special boxes marked "Nice EU approved medicines only - definitely nothing else that might be illegal in here"

All goods coming in to the UK from EU wil be subject to more checks/transport disruption - that's part of controlling your borders isn't it?

[StraferJack]

"If we crash out with no deal these sorts of drugs join the long list of "important stuff we get from other countries" which will need new trade agreements to be in place before we can have more."

Exactly. All of this can be managed with goodwill between EU and UK but the UK has pissed away a lot of goodwill, and talking about walking away, no deal is doing more damage

[JohnL]

A bit of evidence there is already a shortage of some medicines as stockpiles are made.

[alex_b]

TheCat Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> Its funny you know, we may be two sides of the

> same coin. I voted to Leave, and feel similarity

> as you do that whenever I have tried to voice what

> I perceive as my valid reasons at the time, that I

> have been 'drowned out'. You have bemoaned in

> previous comments the lack of reasonable debate,

> and the deeply held emotive nature of how people

> feel on this issue; which has actually made

> meaningful, constructive discussion impossible - I

> feel exactly the same.

>

> My few attempts to engage on this thread

> specifically have been made in good faith to try

> to gain an understanding of differing viewpoints,

> and while there are a few posters who i have

> learnt something from, the general boorishness and

> judgement applied by the majority of the crowd in

> painting someone as either a Brexiteer or a

> Remoaner makes it largely pointless to try. I am

> not a 'Leaver' - I am a person who happened to

> vote Leave - I happen to be many other things,many

> of which probably make me different from other

> people who also voted to leave - and being

> ascribed every trait often associated with Leavers

> again makes sensible discussion almost impossible.

> So in that sense I share your despair.

>

Thanks for your detailed post and I do think (particularly on immigration) you are in a minority of those who voted leave. Could you explain what you think a good exit deal would look like then, what were you expecting to be the outcome to be when you voted leave?

[JohnL]

StraferJack Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> Alex - a lot of that sounds sensible. And if it's

> where we landed I wouldn't be too upset. But it

> asks an awful lot of too many countries to, again,

> "Trust us", when it will probably simply lead to

> outrage from brexiteers and those countries

> wathcing us have another meltdown for several more

> months (which we don't have)

>

> John - sorry, I don't quite get the gist of what

> you are saying there. I think I agree with you and

> you are making same point as me?

Yes - we've lost so much trust already (seen by some as the mad nation in Europe), we may not meet our commitments, so why should they not trust we may do something dodgy with medicines (dilute them to go round anyone ?)

Apparently one German TV station uses that picture of a British shoe being shot as it's standard Brexit background.

[keano77]

We?re not talking about nuts and bolts for the car industry here StraferJack, we?re talking about life-saving drugs in some instances. Even EU ?algorithms on legs? holding clip boards should resist their bureaucratic urges.

Sounds like project fear version one million and one to me. Sorry NHS your meds for diabetes, pestilence and plague are still in the customs warehouse because Pierre hasn?t filed his tick box sheet in triplicate to confirm these pallets from GlaxoSmithKline are really from GlaxoSmithKline.

[JohnL]

Well the government say they may give pharmacists emergency powers to replace patients medicine with something similar or reduce dosages.

If that's a lie it's extremely irresponsible.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/brexit-no-deal-medicine-prescription-drug-stockpiling-shortages-nhs-matt-hancock-health-a8672021.html

[JohnL]

Oh-Oh here we go with Mad Mrs May

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/theresa-may-human-rights-act-repeal-brexit-echr-commons-parliament-conservatives-a8734886.html

[TheCat]

alex_b Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> TheCat Wrote:

> --------------------------------------------------

> -----

> > Its funny you know, we may be two sides of the

> > same coin. I voted to Leave, and feel

> similarity

> > as you do that whenever I have tried to voice

> what

> > I perceive as my valid reasons at the time, that

> I

> > have been 'drowned out'. You have bemoaned in

> > previous comments the lack of reasonable

> debate,

> > and the deeply held emotive nature of how

> people

> > feel on this issue; which has actually made

> > meaningful, constructive discussion impossible -

> I

> > feel exactly the same.

> >

> > My few attempts to engage on this thread

> > specifically have been made in good faith to

> try

> > to gain an understanding of differing

> viewpoints,

> > and while there are a few posters who i have

> > learnt something from, the general boorishness

> and

> > judgement applied by the majority of the crowd

> in

> > painting someone as either a Brexiteer or a

> > Remoaner makes it largely pointless to try. I

> am

> > not a 'Leaver' - I am a person who happened to

> > vote Leave - I happen to be many other

> things,many

> > of which probably make me different from other

> > people who also voted to leave - and being

> > ascribed every trait often associated with

> Leavers

> > again makes sensible discussion almost

> impossible.

> > So in that sense I share your despair.

> >

>

> Thanks for your detailed post and I do think

> (particularly on immigration) you are in a

> minority of those who voted leave. Could you

> explain what you think a good exit deal would look

> like then, what were you expecting to be the

> outcome to be when you voted leave?

Lets remember that the vote was nearly 3 years ago now. And I'll be frank that I did not have a detailed map in my mind of the exact deal that I would have wanted - I really don't think that was practical or possible at the time.

What I did have was a number of (what I saw as) well-founded reasons that in the longer term (after some initial disruption) would possibly mean a better life in the UK out of the EU than perhaps within the EU. Crucially, I also had faith (perhaps misplaced) that some of the more obvious risks would be managed by a competent and sensible government. I also took what I perceive as a very long term view of leaving the EU, thus in the shorter term I was prepared to wear recession/transition challenges for longer term benefits.

I think that at the time of the vote, that level of detail was enough. Sure, now we need to discuss the detail given we're staring at a poorly managed negotiation and possible no-deal scenario.....

[Blah Blah]

But who in their right mind is prepared to wear recession, knowing full well how that compounds millions of people, low paid and unemployed alike to hardship on top of 10 years of already bad austerity? Even worse than that, it makes no economic sense to risk recession at a time where billions have to be spent making those both economic and practical adjustments. And that is for me the whole problem with the Bexit debate. Economics (the real issue) was sidelined for vague notions around sovereignty and immigration. In truth, everything we are is government delivered, over successive decades. That is not going to change because we leave the EU. And also in truth, we have done more to shape EU policy over the past 25 years than being changed by it. This is a good read for an understanding of that.

https://www.law.ox.ac.uk/business-law-blog/blog/2017/10/eu-law-uk-eu-law-without-uk

All I see is continued confusion from many leave voters about how any of this stuff actually works.

[TheCat]

Blah Blah Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> But who in their right mind is prepared to wear

> recession

Well...rather than suggesting im 'not of right mind' you could perhaps just ask politely why I did?

Becuase, a recession is a temporary hardship, and this was a vote which I viewed through a 50+ year lens.

I could equally ask who in their right mind would yolk together completely disparate economies under one central bank for ever and ever amen..and think that situation won't result in recession and hardship for various countries at various points in the future. And then assume that even with a different currency, that the UK would be immune to being affected by that.

You may argue that this situation is more tolerable for you than the short term recession which I reluctantly accept might be a risk....well that's personal preferences, personal risk tolerance, and perhaps agree to disagree. But if you haven't considered some of the drawbacks of the EU project as well as the benefits, then perhaps you share some of that 'confusion' you so willingly ascribe to leave voters....

[Sephiroth]

Ireland cat, Ireland.

Stop prattling on about your tolerance levels for recession and get real

Or talk about those families paying hundreds to apply to remain. The sheer stress caused by uncertainty

This isn?t something you get to shrug and glibly talk about personal risk levels

You talk of drawbacks In the European project - could you spell out how any of these drawbacks have negatively affected you, anyone you know or even the country as a whole?

[diable rouge]

TheCat Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> Becuase, a recession is a temporary hardship, and

> this was a vote which I viewed through a 50+ year

> lens.

Depends how you define 'temporary'. We're still suffering the hardship of the 'credit crunch' recession of 10 years ago. A No Deal Brexit would compound that...

[JohnL]

TheCat Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> You may argue that this situation is more

> tolerable for you than the short term recession

> which I reluctantly accept might be a risk....well

> that's personal preferences, personal risk

> tolerance, and perhaps agree to disagree. But if

> you haven't considered some of the drawbacks of

> the EU project as well as the benefits, then

> perhaps you share some of that 'confusion' you so

> willingly ascribe to leave voters....

Well I'm over 50 with no children :)

But for lots of youngsters the advantage of EU was you could get on your bike and find a job (or set-up a business) anywhere in the whole continent.

[Trinnydad]

TheCat Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> Well...rather than suggesting im 'not of right

> mind' you could perhaps just ask politely why I

> did?

>

> Becuase, a recession is a temporary hardship, and

> this was a vote which I viewed through a 50+ year

> lens.

>

> I could equally ask who in their right mind would

> yolk together completely disparate economies under

> one central bank for ever and ever amen..and think

> that situation won't result in recession and

> hardship for various countries at various points

> in the future. And then assume that even with a

> different currency, that the UK would be immune to

> being affected by that.

>

> You may argue that this situation is more

> tolerable for you than the short term recession

> which I reluctantly accept might be a risk....well

> that's personal preferences, personal risk

> tolerance, and perhaps agree to disagree. But if

> you haven't considered some of the drawbacks of

> the EU project as well as the benefits, then

> perhaps you share some of that 'confusion' you so

> willingly ascribe to leave voters....

@ TheCat

I subscribe to your views. You come across as a knowledgeable and intelligent person who has reached a considered long term view on Brexit.

Too many others have failed to remember how the EU started out as a free trade area only that has developed into a centrally controlled dictatorship that is largely under the control of Germany. Nothing happens without Merkel's approval.

The Euro has been hugely beneficial for Germany but it has marginalised much of southern and eastern Europe. It devastated Greece and will do the same, in time, to Italy, Portugal and Spain. When these last three disintegrate financially, the EU project will be finished.

Oblivious to the realities, Brussels is intent on further centralisation. That is when people will look back on the merits of national sovereignty.

[diable rouge]

Trinnydad Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> I subscribe to your views. You come across as a

> knowledgeable and intelligent person who has

> reached a considered long term view on Brexit.

BREXIT SUPPORTER SUPPORTS BREXIT SUPPORTER SHOCKER!

Trinny, you do make me laugh...:)

[Blah Blah]

You clearly have no conception of generational hardship do you TheCat. It can be argued that generational hardship, caused by successive governments doing too little to regenerate the economy outside of the SE is why we are where we are, with the EU being scapegoated for what has been too much reliance on the service sector and the SE for our economic growth.

All that brexit delivers, is greater power to those very people who have shaped the economy that genuinely lies at the heart of our woes. Other countries manage perfectly well within the EU with better outcomes and less social inequality. Finland has such a low tax gap that people actually pay more than they need to. Whereas it is no accident that the biggest voices backing brexit politically speaking are also those with numerous offshore interests and have most to lose from the EU's coming directives on tax avoidance and tax havens.

They sold a brexit to the people, and promised a deal that would be easy to agree, and have delivered nothing. They sold brexit from a completely different agenda to those they conned into voting for it. And they will continue to fail the very people they have failed for the last 40 years, if they get their way.