Brexit View

[Jenny1]

robbin Wrote:

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> JohnL Wrote:

> -------------------------------------

> There are greater challenges to our economy than

> Brexit in terms of rebalancing. In the medium to

> long term the development of AI is highly likely

> to be one of them, which may cause huge structural

> adjustments as very large numbers of jobs become

> redundant.

But isn't it mad to be spending time, money and effort enacting a damaging Brexit rather than focusing on our approach to AI and the changes it will bring?

[robbin]

Jenny - Personally I don't think there should ever have been a referendum, but that's irrelevant now. Your question though illustrates the skewed 'debate' on this issue. Your question is loaded with the insertion of the word "damaging" - that's the only premise for the question that you appear prepared to countenance.

Why not ask "But isn't it mad to be spending time, money and effort enacting a Brexit rather than focusing on our approach to AI and the changes it will bring?"

The answer to that would likely be, 'it depends on how advantageous to the UK in the long term the Brexit would be'. But that's (apparently) not a question you would ask because of the degree of certainty in your own mind that eliminates any balanced or enquiring consideration of such an important issue.

You may be right to think it will be damaging. But, you may not be. It's not been done before and it's highly complex with positives and negatives being possible on all sorts of unrelated, or even overlapping issues. I find it frustrating that for something that is complex on an epic scale, so many posters on this thread are so utterly certain they are right about predicting the future (often by quoting sound bites from foreign leaders on the other side of the negotiating table).

With such a degree of certain knowledge of complex economic outcomes, it's a wonder some posters are not all already millionaires from their savvy market trades. Maybe you are and you have been posting from your yachts!

[flocker spotter]

its ok EDF

the jobs lost will be in the provinces. no need to worry too much about things. You have the luxury of detachment.

[Jenny1]

robbin Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> Why not ask "But isn't it mad to be spending time,

> money and effort enacting a Brexit rather than

> focusing on our approach to AI and the changes it

> will bring?"

>

> The answer to that would likely be, 'it depends on

> how advantageous to the UK in the long term the

> Brexit would be'. But that's (apparently) not a

> question you would ask because of the degree of

> certainty in your own mind that eliminates any

> balanced or enquiring consideration of such an

> important issue.

>

There's no reason why you'd know this Robbin, but I've considered the issue a great deal.

I think there's a big difference between attempting to predict the future (which is clearly impossible) and looking at all the information available and making a decision based on the facts available. As I said earlier, I have yet to see any sensible arguments as to why Brexit would benefit the UK - quite the reverse. My personal belief is that many people are prepared to wearily let Brexit happen because of the 'sunk-cost fallacy'. We've spent so much time, effort and money on it already that we simply must go ahead, no matter what the ultimate price. I don't like passive and fatalistic approaches like this.

[Jenny1]

flocker spotter Wrote:

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> its ok EDF

>

> the jobs lost will be in the provinces. no need to

> worry too much about things. You have the luxury

> of detachment.

Yes. Many do. But others, like me, on a small disability pension, do not. My main concern, like that of many people, is that the NHS and social care will be further eroded in the wake of the economic damage caused by Brexit.

[robbin]

I think fs' comment was tongue in cheek?

[Jenny1]

Yes. I think it was, partially. And in that spirit I wholeheartedly agree with it. But it did imply that everyone living in London is in a 'privileged' position.

[flocker spotter]

it was a non specific non targeted taking the piss.

I don't care about brexit really - its a hypothetical: how do you want to be assaulted - with a knife or a hammer ? kinda choice - I do care about the direction this country has gone & how we sleptwalked into such a sickening situation where so much will change for many but nothing has really changed for those that matter.

Dragged down into detail obscures the big picture.

Our forefathers fought and died for peace and the NHS, the least we can do is destroy the NHS and give the world a push into conflict instability.It's what they would have wanted. Doing it in their memory

[flocker spotter]

but hey! good news

there is a corporate approved mural that no one cares about being painted on a pigeon guano spattered train bridge and the cat killer doesn't exist - now that is something to cheer us up and I am sure the local retailers tills will be ringing with joy at that

/

[JohnL]

Jenny1 Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> flocker spotter Wrote:

> --------------------------------------------------

> -----

> > its ok EDF

> >

> > the jobs lost will be in the provinces. no need

> to

> > worry too much about things. You have the

> luxury

> > of detachment.

>

> Yes. Many do. But others, like me, on a small

> disability pension, do not. My main concern, like

> that of many people, is that the NHS and social

> care will be further eroded in the wake of the

> economic damage caused by Brexit.

That idiot John Redwood wants tax cuts - and says we can have it from the 39 Billion we are not going to pay the EU. I expected tax increases this autumn (even if indirect ones) - for the NHS and Social Care.

[robbin]

Finally TM has actually shown a modicum of tactical intelligence this afternoon by getting angry about the disrespect shown yesterday by Macron and others, but more importantly she appears (whether or not she will stick to it remains to be seen) to have rejected the notion that the UK should negotiate against itself. One of the basic rules of negotiation is that you should not get into such a position by following one 'reduced' offer by a further 'reduced' offer while the other side stays silent. That's the game the EU appears to be playing (that or its just not interested in doing a deal and is wasting time). We'll see which is which in due course, I guess.

Unfortunately, TM will probably get cold feet and start backtracking. I notice she didn't suspend/walk away from talks, so that suggests some weakness.

What I find particularly galling is the fact that the DUP now hold sway on the Irish issue, which means there's no chance of sticking customs checks between NI and the mainland, which is what the EU want (I wouldn't care if that happened).

[diable rouge]

Disrespect? Now I know you're trolling...:)

[JohnL]

UK is leaving the EU not vice-versa.

This is going to end in her resignation.

Edit: As I said 6 months ago the EU have offered 1. Norway 2. Canada. Boris is now saying he'd take Canada - you have a Devil's alliance.

Edit Again: And I assume Boris would throw NI under a bus :)

[JohnL]

What she said: No one wants a good deal more than me. But the EU should be clear. I will not overturn the results of the referendum nor will I break up my country. We need serious engagement on resolving the two big problems in the negotiations. And we stand ready.

What she meant: I will cave in after the Conservative Party conference

https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/theresa-may-10-downing-street-statement-what-she-said-meant-translation-a8548726.html

[edcam]

Highly amused that Theresa May thinks the EU maintaining its integrity is "disrespect". Just hurry up and stop this farce.

[Alan Medic]

edcam Wrote:

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> Highly amused that Theresa May thinks the EU

> maintaining its integrity is "disrespect". Just

> hurry up and stop this farce.

I think she probably just got pissed off with Donald Tusk's Instagram photo's and comment. That was a strange one as he writes his own comments and could have predicted the outrage it might cause in sections of the UK press. A tactic maybe, but to what end I wonder.

From what I read the EU got annoyed with the tone of her speech at the dinner which was apparently almost word for word what she had said to a German newspaper beforehand. Either it's my way or the highway.

Also in a private meeting with Varadkar the following morning she told him it was unlikely she would come up with a solution to the Border backstop issue before November when the understanding was it would be October. Mind you as there is no 'solution' given she is owned by the DUP, that's not a surprise. I reckon the EU got fed up with the kicking the can down the road routine.

[amac]

Jenny1 Wrote:

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> A fair and clear assessment.

>

> I'm old enough to remember the 1970s, when our

> status as 'The sick man of Europe' forced us to go

> 'cap in hand to the IMF'. It was famously the time

> of the 'brain drain'. That's already started

> again. Without a dramatic change of course, it's

> very clear what our destination is now going to

> be. And my honest assessment is that there's

> no-one on the political stage with the vision,

> leverage and courage to change that. I hope I'm

> proved wrong.

>

> I agree that this is a key, and worrying, point.

>

> Loz Wrote:

> --------------------------------------------------

> -----

> > The political centre has been

> > abandoned, and that is never a good sign. In a

> > country like Great Britain, that for so long had

> a

> > reputation for pragmatism and rationality, it

> is

> > grounds for real concern.

Interesting comments. But this current divisiveness is not so black and white. I know Labour voters who (though they don't like admitting it) agree with Mogg and co on Brexit. I know dyed in the wool Tories who are aghast at the prospect of leaving the EU (the trade bloc that helps us - as Brexiters, without irony, remind us ? be the 6th largest economy in Europe). Essentially, the problem is that far too many of us Brits have allowed opinion to overwhelm fact, have not learned their history (some of the second world war justifications are so so clueless), appear unable to cooly analyse our situation, have not listened to independent voices but have chosen prejudiced ill-informed rabble rousers. It's happened before and it'll happen again. It's stupid. But I still hope that the Centre can be revitalised and made more attractive - it's no coincidence that this is all happening at a time when we look a bold, charismatic centrist politician who has a vision of the future. Find that person and we can put this right.

[JohnL]

amac Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> Jenny1 Wrote:

> --------------------------------------------------

> -----

> > A fair and clear assessment.

> >

> > I'm old enough to remember the 1970s, when our

> > status as 'The sick man of Europe' forced us to

> go

> > 'cap in hand to the IMF'. It was famously the

> time

> > of the 'brain drain'. That's already started

> > again. Without a dramatic change of course,

> it's

> > very clear what our destination is now going to

> > be. And my honest assessment is that there's

> > no-one on the political stage with the vision,

> > leverage and courage to change that. I hope I'm

> > proved wrong.

> >

> > I agree that this is a key, and worrying,

> point.

> >

> > Loz Wrote:

> >

> --------------------------------------------------

>

> > -----

> > > The political centre has been

> > > abandoned, and that is never a good sign. In

> a

> > > country like Great Britain, that for so long

> had

> > a

> > > reputation for pragmatism and rationality, it

> > is

> > > grounds for real concern.

>

>

> Interesting comments. But this current

> divisiveness is not so black and white. I know

> Labour voters who (though they don't like

> admitting it) agree with Mogg and co on Brexit. I

> know dyed in the wool Tories who are aghast at the

> prospect of leaving the EU (the trade bloc that

> helps us - as Brexiters, without irony, remind us

> ? be the 6th largest economy in Europe).

> Essentially, the problem is that far too many of

> us Brits have allowed opinion to overwhelm fact,

> have not learned their history (some of the second

> world war justifications are so so clueless),

> appear unable to cooly analyse our situation, have

> not listened to independent voices but have chosen

> prejudiced ill-informed rabble rousers. It's

> happened before and it'll happen again. It's

> stupid. But I still hope that the Centre can be

> revitalised and made more attractive - it's no

> coincidence that this is all happening at a time

> when we look a bold, charismatic centrist

> politician who has a vision of the future. Find

> that person and we can put this right.

And yet on some specific policies (such as gender recognition) Theresa May is pushing a much more social centrist agenda than many others. I don't understand her sometimes - however seeing her creep around the fringes of international summits out of synch with every other leader doesn't give me confidence in her.

https://www.indy100.com/article/transgender-rules-reform-gender-recognition-act-2004-dysphoria-theresa-may-8427476

[robbin]

Loz wrote:

"I know dyed in the wool Tories who are aghast at the prospect of leaving the EU (the trade bloc that

helps us - as Brexiters, without irony, remind us ? be the 6th largest economy in Europe)."

Eh? Have I misread, or are you seriously suggesting the UK is the 6th largest economy in Europe?! If so, by what measure? You are way out. Spain is the 6th largest economy in Europe by GDP (the standard measure) which is just over HALF the size of the UK economy. Russia is 5th, Italy 4th, France 3rd.

[diable rouge]

You have misread robbin, as Loz didn't write that...:)

[Jenny1]

robbin Wrote:

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> the 6th largest economy in Europe

>

I'd assumed a slip of the keyboard - reference to our global rather than European position?

[diable rouge]

I don't think the Labour Politburo understand that a lot of people lent their vote to Labour at the last election hoping they would support a vote on the final deal, with the option to remain. Labour voting Remainers are going to have to do a lot of soul-searching today...http://www.politics.co.uk/blogs/2018/09/24/labour-s-people-s-vote-stitch-up

[robbin]

diable rouge Wrote:

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> You have misread robbin, as Loz didn't write

> that...:)

What did she mean then? :)

[diable rouge]

Loz (male) didn't write what you quoted, amac did...

[JohnL]

Jenny1 Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> robbin Wrote:

> --------------------------------------------------

> -----

> > the 6th largest economy in Europe

> >

>

> I'd assumed a slip of the keyboard - reference to

> our global rather than European position?

I saw this - assumed the same. Some (Brexiters generally) claim we are still 5th biggest in the world.

https://money.cnn.com/2017/11/22/news/economy/uk-france-biggest-economies-in-the-world/index.html