Brexit View

[Jenny1]

robbin Wrote:

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> As if the Dutch PM knows what preparations

> have/are taking place in the UK.

Do you have information on these 'preparations' yourself Robbin? If so I'd like to know more about them.

[robbin]

JohnL Wrote:

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> > I agree it's negotiation - but they just seem so

> much better at it than us - this tweet from Peston

> actually makes you feel sorry for her - the girl

> being excluded from the in crowd at school. You

> get the feeling it was all planned.

Yes, the old boys of the almost exclusively male EU in-crowd.

I don't feel sorry for TM - I think she's useless. However, she is at a massive structural disadvantage. The EU Commission and its negotiators do not have the same set up to cope with as the UK does. We have an opposition (sort of!) and commentators who are at pains to take points against the government (which is their job) and those points usually signal weaknesses in our negotiating position. In fact they are designed to whip up doubt and/or fear even if they are correct. Whereas the EU body is able to keep all internal stuff like that at arms length.

I'm not suggesting that the opposition/opponents of Brexit shouldn't make their points, but the fact remains that structurally we have that in-built disadvantage that does not exist with normal negotiations. We are starting the game without a goalkeeper and missing a couple of midfielders (with Raheem Stirling as our main striker).

Jennie - I only have knowledge of what I have read. Like the Dutch PM I don't have an inside line to all the relevant government departments. I do know the Dutch are cr*pping themselves about their aviation industry as well as other aspects of their economy though.

[Jenny1]

robbin Wrote:

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> I do know the Dutch are cr*pping themselves about

> their aviation industry as well as other aspects

> of their economy though.

I doubt they're cr*pping themselves as much as UK business.

[keano77]

Around 28,000 people work at the Belgium port of Zeebrugge Jenny, one of Europe?s biggest ports.

I think you?ll find Belgian politicians are putting pressure on the Commission to get a deal as one very simple example.

Don?t be taken in by EU PR about unity of the 27. Word is, like rats fighting in a sack

[diable rouge]

...and yet still the bombastic Brextremists bluster on blah de bloody blah :)

[JohnL]

Sky News are calling yesterday the "Salzburg Snub"

I don't know where we go from here - As a remainer I say Peoples Vote (maybe now with 4 options Remain, Norway, Canada, No Deal) done by STV. There's no time left unless we extend A50.

[Jenny1]

keano77 Wrote:

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> Don?t be taken in by EU PR about unity of the 27.

> Word is, like rats fighting in a sack

I doubt they're fighting in a sack as much as 'our' rats.

[flocker spotter]

Short term hardship will provide long term gains - just not the non specific economically illiterate ones being hawked by those with irons in that particular fire.

The breakup of the union will be one of the highlights of a bad brexit. The slow painful dismantling of the empire of evil.

macron may be a right wing opportunist but his recent musing is pretty much spot on. its like we are a country who have been subject to a mass 419 and still stubbornly deny we have been done like a kipper.

[JohnL]

news is so depressing.

Theresa May embarrassing, John Redwood as crazy as ever. The leader of UKIP making islamophobic statements on air (I'll be surprised if he doesn't get a visit from the police).

[diable rouge]

flocker spotter Wrote:

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> macron may be a right wing opportunist but his

> recent musing is pretty much spot on. its like we

> are a country who have been subject to a mass 419

> and still stubbornly deny we have been done like a

> kipper.

I'm trying to work out why the arch-Brextremist Telegraph ran this headline. I understand why they would want to stick the knife in May, but it's hardly complimentary to their replacement poster-boy Johnson either...

[robbin]

Like the majority of French people I don't give a t*ss what that clown Macron has to say.

He'd be well advised to pay a bit more attention to home. He has an eye wateringly low approval rating of 19% in France (the like of which is almost unprecedented) and large swathes of the electorate appear to think he has lied and broken his earlier fine sounding promises. His own MPs have been saying it feels like they are on the Titanic, they are that disillusioned with him. Waste of space almost makes TM look half decent!

[Jenny1]

diable rouge Wrote:

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> I'm trying to work out why the arch-Brextremist

> Telegraph ran this headline.

Hard to be sure without seeing the full text of the article, but I would guess either

1) They temporarily remembered they're supposed to do some proper journalism, or

2) They figured all their readers instinctively hate the French so this will fire them up to further venom against 'Foreigners'.

[JohnL]

Jenny1 Wrote:

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> diable rouge Wrote:

> --------------------------------------------------

> -----

> > I'm trying to work out why the arch-Brextremist

> > Telegraph ran this headline.

>

> Hard to be sure without seeing the full text of

> the article, but I would guess either

>

> 1) They temporarily remembered they're supposed to

> do some proper journalism, or

>

> 2) They figured all their readers instinctively

> hate the French so this will fire them up to

> further venom against 'Foreigners'.

At a guess option 2 :)

But May doesn't need to climb down in Europe - just at home. She can go

Canada with the Brexiteers

Norway with Labour

Otherwise it's an election, referendum or no deal.

[flocker spotter]

It is pure diversion. It is irrelevant what macron has to say about something from 2 years ago, even if it is broadly correct.

[robbin]

Jenny1 Wrote:

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> robbin Wrote:

> --------------------------------------------------

> -----

>

> > I do know the Dutch are cr*pping themselves

> about

> > their aviation industry as well as other

> aspects

> > of their economy though.

>

> I doubt they're cr*pping themselves as much as UK

> business.

Who knows - I don't think they have the 24 hour hype and hysteria about Brexit in Holland, so maybe not, but the figures speak for themselves. In 2015 (the figures haven't changed much since) the UK exported ?17.3 billion to Holland and the Dutch exported way more to the UK - ?31 billion. So, an annual positive net balance (for the Dutch) of ?13.7 billion every year, which they must be worried will be at risk - that's a lot of jobs and effect on their economy. Even in the short term, (say 5 years) that's a net trade balance of ?86.5 billion that they would not want to lose.

For a country with an economy (in GDP terms) less than one third the size of the UK, that is significant, it seems to me.

If you think that's not something Holland and certain other major EU nations are bothered about, then I'd be interested in your explanation why those figures are not relevant to this other side of the argument. In addition, there's the uncertain so-called Rotterdam effect.

[Jenny1]

On the contrary. Certainly relevant. It's a senior French politician saying what no senior English politician (I advisedly do not say 'UK politician') has been brave enough to say. It's also an indication of how naive May's efforts to win over individual EU heads of state over the summer has been.

Edited to make clear this in response to Flocker Spotter's post on Macron.

[Jenny1]

robbin Wrote:

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> If you think that's not something Holland and

> certain other major EU nations are bothered about,

> then I'd be interested in your explanation why

> those figures are not relevant to this other side

> of the argument.

Of course no sane person in the Netherlands, or any other EU country (including the UK), wants to have to cope with the economic losses and dislocation that Brexit will cause. But the important difference between the Netherlands and the UK is that after Brexit (any kind of Brexit) the Netherlands will be in a position to quickly re-adjust its business models within the EU. We in the UK won't. So, as one sensible person put it, the economic damage of Brexit is, for the EU 27, like a bullet in the foot. For the UK, it's like a bullet to the head.

[robbin]

On top of that, don't forget the common sense economics of the balance of trade. A country can relatively easily replace imports from one country with another source (e.g. buy Japanese or US cars instead of German cars). It is far, far harder for any country to replace their exports. If suddenly you are not exporting to one particular country, you can't just replace those exports by selling to another (indeed, you would already be exporting those amounts to them if it was that easy).

Reading this thread it all appears so black and white and negative (and more than a little hysterical) but that's hardly surprising if its all based on a skewed and selective set of data. I would rather Brexit was not happening and I'm pretty sick of hearing about it, but I do not think everything is all doom and gloom and there's certainly not clarity on a lot of things. We'll have to wait and see what a no deal scenario brings (if that's what happens) but I doubt the sky will fall in (unless we all collectively will it to do so).

[JohnL]

We might still buy Dutch stuff but pay more (maybe quite a bit more) for it.

That depends on how prosperous we feel post Brexit.

[robbin]

Jenny1 wrote

"...But the important difference between the Netherlands and the UK is that after Brexit (any kind of Brexit) the Netherlands will be in a position to quickly re-adjust its business models within the EU. We in the UK won't..."

I'm sorry - I can't let that statement go unexplored! What on earth does that even mean? I don't mean that rudely - I just can't work it out and it makes no logical sense to me - it comes across as a sound bite. How, exactly will the Netherlands be able to "quickly re-adjust it's business models in the EU"? How? It already sells as much as it can by way of exports to other EU countries, surely? It can't just suddenly turn around and replace lost exports (see my last post) and it's nonsense to postulate otherwise.

If (and I stress 'if') on the other hand Brexit means new markets are opened up (which couldn't previously be accessed in the same way, owing to membership of the UE) then it may be easier to replace lost exports to the Netherlands than it would be for the Dutch to replace their lost exports to the UK by somehow selling more to the EU.

I'm not predicting that will happen, but I do seriously question the apparently flawed logic of that statement. It's a danger of sound bite politics and reporting, I think, that people state positions as fact without any reasoning lying behind them.

[Jenny1]

robbin Wrote:

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> ...more than a little

> hysterical... We'll

> have to wait and see what a no deal scenario

> brings (if that's what happens) but I doubt the

> sky will fall in (unless we all collectively will

> it to do so).

I think it's important not to conflate justified concern with hysteria. As to your final point I think it will probably depend on how you define 'the sky falling in'. I know the reference to 'collectively willing' was probably just a throw away remark - but it's important to remember that no event, negative or otherwise, was ever caused to happen by 'collective will', while a major change in circumstances often brings consequences.

[Jenny1]

robbin Wrote:

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>How, exactly will the

> Netherlands be able to "quickly re-adjust it's

> business models in the EU"? How? It already sells

> as much as it can by way of exports to other EU

> countries, surely? It can't just suddenly turn

> around and replace lost exports (see my last post)

> and it's nonsense to postulate otherwise.

>

> If (and I stress 'if') on the other hand Brexit

> means new markets are opened up (which couldn't

> previously be accessed in the same way, owing to

> membership of the UE) then it may be easier to

> replace lost exports to the Netherlands than it

> would be for the Dutch to replace their lost

> exports to the UK by somehow selling more to the

> EU.

>

I probably should have said 'more easily' rather than 'quickly'. I'm not saying the process will be that rapid or indeed complete. But there's no getting away from the fact that the EU is a very large and effective free market that offer massive benefits to members. Also the Dutch are already picking up some of the business which is leaving the UK and seeking an alternative post-Brexit home.

I'm glad you emphasise your 'If' in reference to new trade opportunities outside the EU. I have yet to see any convincing arguments that there will be any.

[flocker spotter]

The NL is soft tax haven for many UK businesses due to its friendly tax regime and like Ireland, easily accessed by EU domiciled businesses

Further, most EU bound trade sweeps through Europort and is disseminated onwards on behalf of other EU receivers.Much of our external trade outside the EU is routed through europort for the same reasons.

The NL is not a massive consumer or exporter in itself - apart from clogs and foamy beer, , but a massive facilitator for everyone else - this is why the NL is different.This is why the loss of the NL as a portal is immense

[robbin]

JohnL Wrote:

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> We might still buy Dutch stuff but pay more (maybe

> quite a bit more) for it.

>

> That depends on how prosperous we feel post

> Brexit.

Yes, we might. We might pay a few percent more for Dutch stuff and vice versa (on a 10% tariff a fair bit would moist likely be absorbed by the exporter). Ultimately (if there's a no deal scenario) in the longer term it's likely we would do a deal at some point to abolish or reduce tariffs, because that's generally considered to be in everyone's interests. In any event there would be some rebalancing of the economy needed of course, which would not necessarily be a bad thing.

There are greater challenges to our economy than Brexit in terms of rebalancing. In the medium to long term the development of AI is highly likely to be one of them, which may cause huge structural adjustments as very large numbers of jobs become redundant.

[robbin]

flocker spotter Wrote:

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> "...This is why the loss of

> the NL as a portal is immense."

Eh? Is this breaking news? Who is saying we are going to 'lose Rotterdam as a portal'?

Has anyone told the Dutch? The mayor of Rotterdam will have a cardiac event!