Brexit View

[diable rouge]

Is that allowed Monsieur Medic?...

[Alan Medic]

Bit iffy but there wasn't anyone around to impose the 'rules' so to speak. Until now at least.

[Jenny1]

citylover Wrote:

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> The

> only real worry of Remainers is that it'll all

> work out fine in the end and their superstate

> dream will slip from their grasp forever.

My real worry is that the decline in the economy caused by Brexit will lead to the further erosion of health and social care.

[diable rouge]

Alan Medic Wrote:

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> Bit iffy but there wasn't anyone around to impose

> the 'rules' so to speak. Until now at least.

I blame Euros, he's done a Cameron, starts the game and then buggers off...

[JohnL]

As the EU stated from the start there is not going to be a deep and meaningful trade deal. The offer is Norway, Canada or Nothing

http://uk.businessinsider.com/theresa-may-warns-her-cabinet-there-is-now-no-chance-of-a-bespoke-brexit-deal-2018-7

if we're heading towards a Norway model then the extremist Brexiters have to be dealt with (Boris/Gove sacked, Rees-Mogg neutralised). Maybe she'll try and buy them off somehow ?

[flocker spotter]

its party first, people last. She will do whatever has to be done to ensure her party survival. like a grotesque constantly mutating virus. Remember, they work for themselves.

[diable rouge]

The Tory knives are coming out for the Mogglodyte after his latest Telegraph piece trashing May...gotta love Soames' hashtags :)

[diable rouge]

Even one of Boris' lackeys is piping up, get stocking up on popcorn folks!...

[flocker spotter]

its a sideshow- like rats eating their young to survive the hard time - this class have no shame. It is a nonsense to think that anything will chance due to the public evisceration of one of their kind.

[JohnL]

The EU claim to have read the white paper and rejected it already

?We read the white paper and we read ?cake?,? an EU official told the Guardian"

I thought it wasn't even written yet.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jul/02/uk-latest-brexit-proposal-is-unrealistic-say-eu-officials

[JoeLeg]

Reading the responses on Twitter by Leave supporters to the above tweets, what amazes me - and has done for some time - is the view of some of them that the govt should ?deliver the Brexit we voted for?.

But we didn?t vote for any particular Brexit, save for simply leaving. How any of them can now claim that the govt is not implementing their wishes is beyond me. We were asked if we wanted to Remain or Leave; nothing more.

We don?t get any further say in the matter. Unfortunately...

[diable rouge]

Agree joe, the referendum was flawed from the start. The Irish showed us recently how a referendum should be conducted by having a proper consultation period beforehand. The post-referendum situation could've been bettered had May instructed the Brexiteers to go away and come up with a plan to implement Brexit. Let them own Brexit. Instead she charged head-first into triggering A50 without a plan, and made that naive, jingoistic tub-thumping Mansion Hose speech with all it's unrealistic red lines. Those red lines are now what the Brextremists unwavering adhere to, saying that's the Brexit they voted for for. Of course it wasn't, but that's all they've got to cling to now, along with insults of treachery etc...

[flocker spotter]

Just wait until your INGERLAND win the World Cup - the fermented and stirred patriotic fervour will lead to clamour for the hardest brexit imaginable.

2 world wars and 2 worlds cups/

[JohnL]

flocker spotter Wrote:

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> Just wait until your INGERLAND win the World Cup -

> the fermented and stirred patriotic fervour will

> lead to clamour for the hardest brexit

> imaginable.

>

> 2 world wars and 2 worlds cups/

Why do our press love making digs at other countries - Columbia had a player assassinated by the cartels after losing in 1994 so the Sun headline is "Go Kane" - and just like the BBC team using "FLK 82" in Argentina they'll deny they knew.

[Earl Aelfheah]

flocker spotter Wrote:

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> Just wait until your INGERLAND win the World Cup -

> the fermented and stirred patriotic fervour will

> lead to clamour for the hardest brexit

> imaginable.

>

> 2 world wars and 2 worlds cups/

Oh god, that's so depressing. I really hope we lose.

[poch]

David Schneider this morn after Boris tweeted that Jacob RM is a 'principled, dedicated MP.'

REMAINER UNHAPPY WITH BREXIT WE?RE GETTING =

undermining our negotiating position, traitor, enemy of the people.

BREXITER UNHAPPY WITH BREXIT WE?RE GETTING =

principled person who wants the best for our country.

[JohnL]

Farage has tweeted that there will be grave consequences for everybody if the liberal elite don't wake up and respect the will of the people.

[JoeLeg]

Farage is blatantly trying to whip up mob hysteria. Someone needs to give him a slap. The man makes me sick, such a lying, hypocritical, vain narcissist.

He doesn?t give a #%^* for people who voted to Remain, he?d happily deport anyone who argues against Brexit. Godwin?s notwithstanding, commentary like that is reminiscent of the 30?s. My grandfather told a chilling tale of what he heard ordinary people say when he visited Germany during that time, and ho they rejected any view that opposed the prevailing ideology. He said it was then that he knew war was inevitable.

Now I don?t believe we?re heading for any kind of civil unrest, but it?s depressing, so depressing that otherwise intelligent people feel comfortable making the same kind of commentary in the 21st century.

[Alan Medic]

Peston's understanding of what's happening this w/end

Robert Peston

1 hr ?

This is one of the more important notes I've written recently, because it contains what well-placed sources tell me are the main elements of the Prime Minister's Brexit plan - which will be put to her cabinet for approval on Friday.

I would characterise the kernel of what she wants as the softest possible Brexit, subject to driving only the odd coach over her self-imposed red lines, as opposed to the full coach and horses.

And I will start with my habitual apology: some of what follows is arcane, technical and - yes - a bit boring. But it matters.

Let's start with the PM's putative third way on a customs arrangement with the EU, which has been billed by her Downing Street officials as an almalgam of the best bits of the two precursor plans, the New Customs Partnership (NCP) and Maximum Facilitation (Max Fac).

Last night I described this supposed third way as largely the NCP rebranded - which prompted howls of outrage from one Downing Street official.

But I stand by what I said. Because the new proposal of the PM and her officials, led on this by Olly Robbins, retains the NCP's most controversial element, namely that the UK would at its borders collect duties on imports at the rate of the European Union's common customs tariff.

The UK would in that sense be the EU's tax collector. And although the UK would have the right to negotiate trade agreements with third countries where tariffs could be different from the EU's or zero, companies in the UK importing from those countries would have to claim back the difference from Her Majesty's Revenue and Customs (HMRC), much in the way they currently claim or pay different VAT rates when trading with the EU.

The reason why, from a bureaucratic if not economic viewpoint, the UK would in effect remain in the EU's customs union is that there is no other way of avoiding border checks between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland. Or at least that is what the PM and her officials now believe.

To be clear, this would be an asymmetric agreement with the EU: Theresa May may ask EU governments to collect customs duties on behalf of the UK from companies based in their respective countries, but she knows they will respond with a decisive no, nay, never.

Which may seem unfair. But actually this would only be a problem if there were an imminent prospect of a future British government wanting to impose higher tariffs than EU ones. And certainly the political climate now - outside of Trumpian America - is for lower tariffs.

Just to be clear, there will be some of Max Fac in this new synthesised customs plan: IT and camera technology employed to reduce the bureaucracy and frictions of cross-border trade.

But the True Brexiters won't be wholly relaxed (ahem) by what they are likely to see as NCP by another name.

And there's more, of course.

Because frictionless trade and an open border between Northern Ireland and the Republic cannot just be achieved by aligning customs collection rates.

It also requires alignment of product standards, for goods and agricultural products.

Or at least that is what the PM will insist on with her Cabinet colleagues.

And that alignment would in effect replicate membership of the single market for goods and agri-foods.

Which would see European standards and law continuing, ad infinitum, to hold sway over British manufacturing and food production - though the ultimate court of appeal in commercial disputes. would, in May's and Robbins's formulation, be an extra-territorial international court, like the European Free Trade Area's EFTA court.

Given that the ECJ would still have a locus below this final adjudicating tribunal, I assume the True Brexiters such as Jacob Rees-Mogg will be unamused.

But maybe they would take comfort that a British parliament could always withdraw from the trading arrangement, if there were concerns that the rest of the EU was discriminating against the UK.

At this juncture you are saying, I am sure, "oi! what about services?" - given that the UK is largely a service economy (80% of our economic output, our GDP, is generated by service businesses).

Well there is an aspiration to maximise access to the EU's giant market for services by aligning professional and quality standards, for example.

But equally there is a pragmatic recognition that maximising such access would require minimising restrictions on EU citizens moving to the UK to live and work; there is a calculation by Robbins and his officials that, among the EU's so-called four freedoms, free movement of services and free movement of people are pragmatically connected.

And since the PM has pledged to impose new controls on the free movement of people from the rest of the EU, she accepts that the EU will insist on some new restrictions on the sale of British services in its marketplace.

But May and her ministers are hopeful there is a deal to be done here, a trade-off: preferential rights offered to EU citizens to live and work in the UK, compared to the rights available to citizens from the rest of the world, for improved market access in Europe for British service companies.

We'll see.

In the round, you may conclude - as I have - that Theresa May wants a future commercial arrangement with the EU that is not as deep and intimate as Norway's, but is not a million miles from Switzerland's.

From which there follow two crucial if obvious questions.

Will the EU - its chief negotiator Michel Barnier and the 27 government heads - bite or balk?

If Barnier's word was gospel on this, the plan would be dead at birth, because it does put a wedge between the four freedoms: May wants complete freedom of movement for goods (and capital), but restrictions on people.

May's bet is that his employers, the 27 prime ministers and presidents, will be less dogmatic.

But what about her own cabinet and parliamentary party?

If they are in the True Brexit camp, like Davis, Johnson, Fox, and Gove, won't they cry "infamy, infamy, etc", threaten resignation and launch a coup to oust the PM?

Well, what the PM will say to them is that her deal, she believes, is the only one around that stands even the faintest chance of being agreed in Brussels (though, to repeat, you would be right to be sceptical of that).

Which carries a momentous implication - namely that if they reject her vision of Brexit, the default option of exiting the EU without a deal would become the sole option.

And although many True Brexiters would say "hip hip for that", if a no-deal Brexit were to become the only game in town, there would be a revolt of MPs and Lords against the executive, against the PM and her government.

Parliament would - almost certainly - reject exiting the EU without a deal and could, probably would, vote for the UK to join the European Economic Area and remain in the EU's single market.

That would, for most True Brexiters, turn the UK into what they call a "vassal state".

So come Friday, Johnson, Davis, Fox and Gove face an agonising choice: agree to a Brexit plan from May which will stick in their craws like a rotting mackerel head; or reject it and take the risk that what follows is almost their worst nightmare, not a clean no-deal Brexit, but the detested "Brino", or Brexit in name only.

Of course there is always a chance that if they shout and scream loudly enough, May will buckle - and will allow the cabinet to agree on obfuscation for the White Paper on her Brexit negotiating position, to be published 12 July, rather than a clear and unambiguous plan to be put to the EU, of the sort I've described.

If that were to happen, her authority would be undermined, perhaps fatally. And the possibility of there being no deal with the EU, on divorce and future relationship, would become a serious, potentially catastrophic probability.

[JohnL]

Robert Peston claims Theresa May's 3rd way is a softish Brexit (Brino) with complicated solutions that break up the 4 freedoms.

Already been rejected by the EU before the cabinet have even discussed it so it seems as more Cakeism.

Edit: LOL beaten to it :)

[Alan Medic]

Brexit analogy.

[diable rouge]

rahrahrah Wrote:

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> flocker spotter Wrote:

> --------------------------------------------------

> -----

> > Just wait until your INGERLAND win the World Cup

> -

> > the fermented and stirred patriotic fervour

> will

> > lead to clamour for the hardest brexit

> > imaginable.

> >

> > 2 world wars and 2 worlds cups/

>

> Oh god, that's so depressing. I really hope we

> lose.

Farage and his ilk will try and hijack any success England might have, he previously called out the England v Belgium match as some sort of 'Brexit derby' FFS.

Gareth Southgate pointedly said recently that this England team reflects the diversity of the country, let's not forget that, and call out the Farges for what they really are...

[diable rouge]

At last, Corbybabes uses his 6 questions at PMQs to finally talk about the B word...Buses. FFS.

[JohnL]

diable rouge Wrote:

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> At last, Corbybabes uses his 6 questions at PMQs

> to finally talk about the B word...Buses. FFS.

LOL - He won though - all six questions on the buses (Theresa May didn't see that coming).

Esther McVey apologised for misleading parliament afterwards - possibly should have been sacked.

[diable rouge]

There is an issue with buses, but why bring it up this week of all weeks. He could've at least mentioned the Brexit Bus :)

Anyway, if anyone is feeling even the slightest bit sorry for the Maybot, don't... https://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/politics/the-chequers-summit-cannot-save-mays-premiership