Brexit View

[JohnL]

Multifish Wrote:

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> I think the trouble with Brexit is that there are

> a lot of conflicting signals arising now and there

> have been historically. Constitutional changes

> were made without the usual referendum route and

> the initial entry into the EU was falsely

> advertised in a lot of quarters. Maastricht and

> Lisbon were signed without seeking consent from

> the electorate.

>

> The most recent general election resulted in the

> electorate electing candidates whose party

> manifestos pledged to leave the single market, the

> winning party pledging to leave the single market

> and customs union. So, democratically speaking,

> that's what should be happening. Considering the

> history of constitutional change without a

> referendum many people wonder whether we do have a

> democracy or the illusion of a democracy.

>

> When you have ruling public figures declaring

> their wish to continue the trend of shaping the

> constitution while simultaneously contradicting

> the expressed will of the electorate then it

> reinforces the perception of an illusion of

> democracy and I don't really blame people for

> using the word "traitor". It might sound rude but

> it's not a rude word and he is betraying a widely

> held principle.

It's one of the rudest possible words and to me has connotations of Hung, Drawn and Quartered and the head being put on a spike on London Bridge - but maybe I'm old fashioned.

During John Majors stewardship the leavers pestered and heckled him left, right and center (he called them the bastards) - you can't blame remainers for embarking on the same sort of campaign that may last for just as long.

If we do go back in (even in 40 years) it's us who have to prepare the groundwork now.

[JohnL]

JoeLeg Wrote:

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> Listen up mate, Adonis is a bit of a joke frankly,

> but he had a few things spot on on his resignation

> letter. Not the least of which is that we're

> currently being governed by fools. 'Twas ever thus

> I suppose, but you don't care because you got what

> you wanted. The nation is being led up the garden

> path. Evause the Leave campaign wasn't ready to

> negotiate, and now you're already blaming others

> for your own failings.

On twitter today some lady claimed he grew up in a children's home after being abandoned by his immigrant (Cypriot) parents. Not the born into privilege type.

He is always (IMHO) Tony Blair's man however - what he says is really Blair's view - but Blair is too toxic to be able to speak on this these days.

[Blah Blah]

keano77 Wrote:

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> A second referendum will only settle matters if the leavers win it again.

> If remainers win it things will be more divided than ever. It would be 1-1 so to speak so we'd need a third and final referendum. Brenda from Bristol would be at the end of her tether.

Yes this would be the risk. The referendum was flawed and anything but a definitive swing in one direction of the other will change nothing in terms of the divide. I agree with you.

[BrandNewGuy]

JohnL Wrote:

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> On twitter today some lady claimed he grew up in a

> children's home after being abandoned by his

> immigrant (Cypriot) parents. Not the born into

> privilege type.

Well, he went to Kingham Hill boarding school ("Day from ?5,525 to ?6,350 per term. Weekly boarding from ?7,850 to ?9,660 per term. Full boarding from ?8,100 to ?10,600 per term") and then Oxford University, so he might not have been born into privilege but had it thrust upon him pretty early on.

[rendelharris]

BrandNewGuy Wrote:

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> JohnL Wrote:

> --------------------------------------------------

> -----

>

> > On twitter today some lady claimed he grew up in

> a

> > children's home after being abandoned by his

> > immigrant (Cypriot) parents. Not the born into

> > privilege type.

>

> Well, he went to Kingham Hill boarding school

> ("Day from ?5,525 to ?6,350 per term. Weekly

> boarding from ?7,850 to ?9,660 per term. Full

> boarding from ?8,100 to ?10,600 per term") and

> then Oxford University, so he might not have been

> born into privilege but had it thrust upon him

> pretty early on.

He was brought up in a council children's home from age three to age eleven, then was sent to Kingham Hill on an LEA grant. I hold no brief for private schools but I wouldn't call that terribly privileged and certainly not what I would want for myself. He got to Oxford on merit, as evinced by the fact that he took a first-class degree and went on to obtain a PhD. He's a Blairite bellend as far as I can see but accusations of privilege are a bit much - unless by privilege you mean advantages obtained through his intellect and hard work.

[keano77]

Interesting Rendel.

However why is he now acting traitor-like? Asking that Chris Graling resign - knowing how weak May is?

Don't be fooled. This is part of the Remainer counter revolution and Lord Adonis is a patsy in the greater scheme of things.

[rendelharris]

keano77 Wrote:

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> However why is he now acting traitor-like? Asking

> that Chris Graling resign - knowing how weak May

> is?

He's a Labour peer and has resigned himself on a point of principle. Not sure how attacking your political opponents is traitorous. He was an independent infrastructure adviser and decided he could no longer tolerate the hash May et al are making of everything. When May attacks Corbyn is she being traitorous or just doing her job?

Oh and by the way, it's not traitorous to continue to fight for what you believe in, no matter what the result of a vote - or is every opposition of whatever hue traitorous to continue to oppose an elected government? If so the only alternative is dictatorship.

[JoeLeg]

keano77 Wrote:

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>

> Don't be fooled. This is part of the Remainer

> counter revolution and Lord Adonis is a patsy in

> the greater scheme of things.

Look Keano, you just have to accept that the same democracy you and I live in which allowed you to win the referendum allows others to mount just such a counter-offensive, if that's what this is.

I find the idea that the 48% are supposed to meekly roll over to be deeply uncomfortable, smacking as it does of nasty little one-party politics in a third world dictatorship.

The 52% have spent 40 years pursuing their goal, no one told them they couldn't, so you don't get to tell others they can't fight for what they want.

Democracy, innit bruv?

(Moreover, if you genuinely think there's actually any liklehood of the referendum being over turned or Brexit not happening then I'll have some of what you're having! Happy New Year!)

[keano77]

Wake up and small the coffee Rendel. Lord Adonis knows exactly what he's doing. He's had private meetings with Barnier et al.

Why resign now? He gladly took the money for his position.

Resigned on a point of principle my arse.

Can you name one innovative project he was responsible for? His resignation letter pretends he had some influence oveR HS2, Crossrail, 4g and 5g. I suspect when I talk to my contacts in such fields they will tell me he was a grossly overpaid pen pusher.

I might be wrong - I was once.

[keano77]

JoeLeg Wrote:

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> keano77 Wrote:

> --------------------------------------------------

> -----

>

> >

> > Don't be fooled. This is part of the Remainer

> > counter revolution and Lord Adonis is a patsy

> in

> > the greater scheme of things.

>

>

> Look Keano, you just have to accept that the same

> democracy you and I live in which allowed you to

> win the referendum allows others to mount just

> such a counter-offensive, if that's what this is.

>

> I find the idea that the 48% are supposed to

> meekly roll over to be deeply uncomfortable,

> smacking as it does of nasty little one-party

> politics in a third world dictatorship.

>

> The 52% have spent 40 years pursuing their goal,

> no one told them they couldn't, so you don't get

> to tell others they can't fight for what they

> want.

>

> Democracy, innit bruv?

>

> (Moreover, if you genuinely think there's actually

> any liklehood of the referendum being over turned

> or Brexit not happening then I'll have some of

> what you're having! Happy New Year!)

JoeLeg, you are one of the more sensible people who post on here and I agree with much of what you say.

However I think this 52% to 48% nonsense. All this talk of how close the vote was is nonsense. If leavers (or remainers) had won by one more vote that was the result. That's democracy. unfortunalely many posters on this thread do not understand this. Maybe it's the age of social media etc or silly ideas such as proportional representation or alternative votes that people think they can change their mind or hedge their bets.

Look at the plight of Angela Merkel. Formerly the most powerful woman politician in the world. Now, no more important at this time than a bingo caller. None of my business, that's the German constitution and a matter for the German people.

Everybody on this thread wants the best for Britain. We just disagree as to the right path.

I've stated this at the beginning of this thread. A country that can't make it's own laws and can't make it's own rules is not a country.

A soft Brexit means kowtowing to the EU, accepting its rules and being told what to do. The Italians, and probably other languages, make use of the diminutive - i.e, just call us Britaino

This doesn't seem to bother younger members of this debate who seem, naively in my opinion, to surrender sovereignty to some silly idea of a global world, a global community, as if Mr Chen from Hunan province gives two damns whether you can afford your mortgage or not because you don't give a damn if his house is razed to build a new motorway. There is no such thing as a global community no matter what Facebook etc like to pretend. Just individuals trying to make their way in life.

Anyway, I'm babbling JoeLeg. We've got another 15 months of this Brexit malarkey and I need to make a New Year's resolution to keep away from this thread. It only makes me cross.

[rendelharris]

keano77 Wrote:

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> However I think this 52% to 48% nonsense. All this

> talk of how close the vote was is nonsense. If

> leavers (or remainers) had won by one more vote

> that was the result. That's democracy.

> unfortunalely many posters on this thread do not

> understand this. Maybe it's the age of social

> media etc or silly ideas such as proportional

> representation or alternative votes that people

> think they can change their mind or hedge their

> bets.

Who was it who said "In a 52-48 referendum this would be unfinished business by a long way. If the Remain campaign win two-thirds to one-third that ends it."? Nigel someone or other...maybe you, keano, would have accepted the vote had it gone t'other way, but if you think the big beasts would have stopped lobbying to leave and tried to force another vote in a few years...democracy means that when the opinion of the electorate changes the country's policy changes. Not silly ideas, democracy. "People think they can change their mind"? Heaven forfend!

[keano77]

Happy New Year Rendel, I've enjoyed our jousting.

Who knows what 2018 holds? A global financial crisis, the collapse of Bitcoin, an internet cyber meltdown, another election ...

One thing's for certain, more fun and games with the EU.

[rendelharris]

Same to you squire.

[Blah Blah]

Keano. You are aware of what is involved in trade deals are you not? That the smaller market always has to conceed more to the bigger market to get access to it? This fallacy you have that we are somehow hard done by because we have to agree to things in order to trade with the EU, as though such conditions don't exist in trade deals elsewhere is a certain sign of someone who knows nothing about trade deals.

What you don't seem to understand is the most of our agreements with the EU relate to trade and issues around trade. Of all UK legislative Acts, EU directives only impact on 13% of them. The 13% they do impact on, relate almost entirely to business, trade and labour. We are not going to get as favourable a deal on trade with the EU outside of the single market as within it. That is just a fact.

So what is at risk here? Our top 37% of exports to the EU are in things that the USA, China and India don't need from us. So where are the equivalent markets to the EU we can export to instead?

You might want to pretend there is no such thing as a global economy but you are wrong. And we are beholden to it just like every other Western economy is. The days of the West profitting off the backs of everyone else are long gone. And the isolationsism you stand for won't change that.

You really should listen to that interview of James Dyson with Andrew Marr, and ask yourself if that is really what you voted for!!!!

[poch]

Government's own analysis January 2018.

'The "no deal" scenario, which would see the UK revert to World Trade Organization (WTO) rules, would reduce growth by 8% over that period. The softest Brexit option of continued single-market access through membership of the European Economic Area would, in the longer term, still lower growth by 2%.'

And in terms of all those trade deals, here are the projected numbers...

'The analysis assumes in all scenarios that a trade deal with the US will be concluded, and that it would benefit GDP by about 0.2% in the long term. Trade deals with other non-EU countries and blocs, such as China, India, Australia, the Gulf countries, and the nations of Southeast Asia would add, in total, a further 0.1% to 0.4% to GDP over the long term.'

[JohnL]

So the impact documents are leaked and they did in fact exist.

Wasn't David Davies meant to bring them to parliament - if he wasn't looking so ill these days I'd say haul him back in for another rollicking from the Speaker.

[poch]

North East and Midlands will be particularly badly hit...

[TheCat]

poch Wrote:

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> Government's own analysis January 2018.

>

> 'The "no deal" scenario, which would see the UK

> revert to World Trade Organization (WTO) rules,

> would reduce growth by 8% over that period. The

> softest Brexit option of continued single-market

> access through membership of the European Economic

> Area would, in the longer term, still lower growth

> by 2%.'

>

> And in terms of all those trade deals, here are

> the projected numbers...

>

> 'The analysis assumes in all scenarios that a

> trade deal with the US will be concluded, and that

> it would benefit GDP by about 0.2% in the long

> term. Trade deals with other non-EU countries and

> blocs, such as China, India, Australia, the Gulf

> countries, and the nations of Southeast Asia would

> add, in total, a further 0.1% to 0.4% to GDP over

> the long term.'

I don't think you're comparing apples with apples there. 'Growth' being 8 percent lower doesn't mean GDP will be 8 percent lower....

[rendelharris]

TheCat Wrote:

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> poch Wrote:

> --------------------------------------------------

> -----

> > Government's own analysis January 2018.

> >

> > 'The "no deal" scenario, which would see the UK

> > revert to World Trade Organization (WTO) rules,

> > would reduce growth by 8% over that period. The

> > softest Brexit option of continued

> single-market

> > access through membership of the European

> Economic

> > Area would, in the longer term, still lower

> growth

> > by 2%.'

> >

> > And in terms of all those trade deals, here are

> > the projected numbers...

> >

> > 'The analysis assumes in all scenarios that a

> > trade deal with the US will be concluded, and

> that

> > it would benefit GDP by about 0.2% in the long

> > term. Trade deals with other non-EU countries

> and

> > blocs, such as China, India, Australia, the

> Gulf

> > countries, and the nations of Southeast Asia

> would

> > add, in total, a further 0.1% to 0.4% to GDP

> over

> > the long term.'

>

>

> I don't think you're comparing apples with apples

> there. 'Growth' being 8 percent lower doesn't mean

> GDP will be 8 percent lower....

S/he's not comparing anything, that's the governments own leaked analysis! And "Growth" is measured directly by the rise or fall of GDP (not adjusted for inflation) so if GDP is -3% compared to the previous quarter then growth will be -3% too.

[TheCat]

I know its he leaked export being quoted. Just best not to have it misrepresented.

I maintain these are two different things. One is an aggregate of growth over 15 years. One is the impact on the annual figure.

Apples and oranges.

[Ali Mafi]

I wonder what we would be talking about if the vote was to remain!

There are so many things I just don?t get

1 if we do a tarif free deal with China or The USA it is totally logical to assume it will be a two way deal so I?ll leave you to guess who will sell more to whom! What exactly are we going to sell more of to China?

2 The one thing the PM has confirmed and The DUP will not budge on is an open border with Ireland BUT The EU simply does not allow an open border with a non member so please someone explain to me what the choice is. Is it an open border so any EU citizen can fly to Dublin and just walk across the border or a closed border in contravention of The Good Friday Agreement which is likely to lead to violence and terrorism!

I really feel sorry for PM , as incompetent as she appears, you need to have a death wish to take the job of PM

[flocker spotter]

China is so not interested in a deal with Britain. All the major trading blocks are most concerned with each other. China wants to improve its trade with the EU, Britain is not a priority. The days of the Empire are over.

And please do not feel sorry for May - she chose to do this out of her own self-interest.

[Earl Aelfheah]

Ali Mafi Wrote:

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> I wonder what we would be talking about if the

> vote was to remain!

> There are so many things I just don?t get

> 1 if we do a tarif free deal with China or The USA

> it is totally logical to assume it will be a two

> way deal so I?ll leave you to guess who will sell

> more to whom! What exactly are we going to sell

> more of to China?

> 2 The one thing the PM has confirmed and The DUP

> will not budge on is an open border with Ireland

> BUT The EU simply does not allow an open border

> with a non member so please someone explain to me

> what the choice is. Is it an open border so any EU

> citizen can fly to Dublin and just walk across the

> border or a closed border in contravention of The

> Good Friday Agreement which is likely to lead to

> violence and terrorism!

> I really feel sorry for PM , as incompetent as she

> appears, you need to have a death wish to take the

> job of PM

None of it makes any sense, of course. But this is not a rational exercise.

[JohnL]

Mr Barnier said: ?My feeling is we have not a minute to lose because we want to achieve a deal... we have decided for this reason to accelerate all the contacts, the useful contacts.?

He's throwing shade as they say ;)

[malumbu]

China want what's good for China, particularly if it disables the West. Played a fine hand with Nixon allowing him to tell the USA nation that he was successful in that China would not intervene in Viet Nam. but allowed China to implement their colonial intentions elsewhere. And contributed to their rise as a global superpower.