Brexit View

[Ali Mafi]

I wonder what the newspapers would have been filled with had we voted to remain?

I'm a remainder but absolutely sick to the back teeth with it .

63% of those eligible to vote voted and 52% of them voted leave that's just under a third

The majority of those who did not vote are youngsters who are mostly remainders but could not be bothered and MAY now have to live with the consequences.

We have today had confirmation from The White House that a trade deal is absolutely not a given.

Any way consider this the Pound has been as much as 30% lower than its pre Brexit level which is significantly more than the tariff levels , so why is every country on the planet not rushing to take advantage of the weak Pound to buy whatever it is that we are going to sell loads of to the rest of the world when, potentially, we lose the customers who buy 40% of what we sell?

If you are in any sort of business would you tell your biggest customer/ supplier to go fish??

We are in this mess for a single reason

The two main political parties are both aware of the above facts( no they are not all brainless morons) , they know a hard Brexit would be political suicide but they also need to take the referendum into account.

The classic rock and hard place scenario and the leaders of the other 27 nations are fully aware of this dilemma our political parties face and are fobbing us off with sound bites while they figure something out.

Just go back to May's speech in Florence. What she wants is a single market and custom union deal but does NOT want it to be called that . Sadly we WILL leave but in name only mainly because all other pathetic attempts to woo the young voters such as freezing tuition fees at the current astronomical level, building 5000 new homes a year etc is just not going to hack it

I have not met a single one of the passionate , obsessed Brexiters who can give a rational explanation as to why they feel so strongly without relying on ridiculous Faragisms such as : " we want our country back, we want control of our borders etc"

Please look up the word control , we will never control our borders in the true sense, we can stop people coming in but we can't entice people we need . I know of one hospital that has 600 nursing vacancy and as a result of Brexit the number of nurses coming here has fallen by 86% in one year.

Well done us

[Loz]

I really hope May doesn't resign and/or is deposed. Not because I think she's competent - rather that I really think whoever takes her place would be a lot worse and a lot more dangerous.

No leaders in the Tories; none in Labour, either. This country is really in the manure.

[malumbu]

Alan Medic Wrote:

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> http://blogs.ec.europa.eu/ECintheUK/euromyths-a-z-

> index/

>

> Euromyths. I like the Barmaids entry.

IS this for real (I am pretty sure it is). Surley the best ever posting.

[Ali Mafi]

You have a point Loz but the country is in a manure because we, the electorate, have placed it there.

One of the problems with voters is that many believe politicians actually can deliver what they promise. The reality is that many of them want to but can't so instead they settle for saving their own skin.

May called an election because she thought 1 She would walk it without effort and 2 she would obliterate Corbyn for once and for all. The problem , as far as The Tories are concerned is not a question of her abilities etc it's simply whether their seats are safe with her as leader and they are , quite evidently, not .

She will be kept until a safe seat is found for Ruth Davidson as potential future leader.

If May does not last that long it will be Davis as an interim leader

You have heard Davis state he wants to resign after March 2019'

That's a clear signal that he is available to save us from Boris but with no long term ambitions

My prediction is on Jan 2022 we will either still be in The EU or out with a Norway type deal and Ms Davidson will be our Prime Minister and she is the only one I can think of to save us from Corbyn

[Blah Blah]

Excellent post Ali and all points that have repeatedly been made on this forum too, with no real informed or evidence backed response from anyone who voted to leave. The worst thing about all of this are people like Farage and Boris - people who do know how everything works and have willingly chosen to drive us down this path and still, it seems, have learned nothing. Are still intent on driving us in a hand cart to economic hell.

[Blah Blah]

I would agree with you on Davidson Ali, except that she is a fierce ramainer and I can not see the wider Tory Party backing her. And David Davis is no guarantee for the interim either. He has to win several rounds of the Tory's leader selection process, with members only voting in the final round.

[Seabag]

Philip Hammond?

He's got a nice nose and that might come in handy.

A leader is defined by a good nose. David Davis is a c-nut with a pudgy I wanna punch ya nose. Boris just has a I-wanna-punch-ya face, so he's out.

Maggie had some nose on her, as did Ted Heath (can we say Ted H still?) Mind you so did Scargill, but his hair was a distraction as was Kinnock's.

May's looking like a witchy Deputy Head more and more, and her nose is dubious. But I quite like Vince Cable's snooter.

So for me it's Cable vs Hammond.

[Blah Blah]

Wtf Seabag LOL

[EDOldie]

Is the Catalan struggle for independence more likely to destroy the EU than Brexit I wonder? If the Catalans do get greater autonomy, or even full independence, then surely other regions such as the Basques will press for further autonomy. Is this is what the EU was so scared of happening with Scotland? The EU simply appears to show support, and no criticism, of the Spanish Governments, rather violent, approach.

There is so much that is good about the EU with trade, free movement, etc., but the political side shows the fragility of the whole project. Surely the long term aim of the EU is to become a Europe wide effective republic and yet here they are supporting a monarchy against a staunchly republican region. Are they such control freaks (similar to the majority of politicians) that they can?t let people govern themselves on a micro scale or am I misunderstanding the whole situation? Maybe there are parallels here with Brexit although they are difficult to see as I can?t imagine the Catalan?s, like the Scot?s, would want to leave the EU. But the EU don?t appear to want either as independent countries.

[Nigello]

The EU is in a tricky spot regarding Madrid v Barcelona. If it steps in, it looks like an "interferer" but if it doesn't it risks letting other restive separatist/nationalist movements getting ideas. Could Northern Italy secede? What about Scotland, Corsica and parts of Belgium?

[JohnL]

Grant Shapps :)

[JohnL]

Nigello Wrote:

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> The EU is in a tricky spot regarding Madrid v

> Barcelona. If it steps in, it looks like an

> "interferer" but if it doesn't it risks letting

> other restive separatist/nationalist movements

> getting ideas. Could Northern Italy secede? What

> about Scotland, Corsica and parts of Belgium?

As the referendum wasn't legal the "remain Spanish" supporters

didn't vote so I can't see any international body recognising it.

Maybe the constitution of Spain needs to be changed and an official

referendum set-up (otherwise we might see a re-run of nationalist versus

republican.

International order seems to be getting fragile

[JohnL]

Nadine Dorries

"The plot is to topple the PM, destroy Boris and put a remain leader in place to delay and possibly destroy Brexit"

[EDOldie]

JohnL Wrote:

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>

> As the referendum wasn't legal the "remain

> Spanish" supporters

> didn't vote so I can't see any international body

> recognising it.

>

> Maybe the constitution of Spain needs to be

> changed and an official

> referendum set-up (otherwise we might see a re-run

> of nationalist versus

> republican.

>

> International order seems to be getting fragile

I'd take issue with that, in the eyes of the Catalan government it was legal and the Spanish did everything they could to stop it. Maybe they were too scared of the result to let it go ahead?

[Loz]

Spain seems to be going the wrong way around any resolution with Catalonia. Apparently they're considering sedition charges against the Catalan head of police. That really won't help. Spain seems to think they can bludgeon the nationalists down, and that rarely works.

Mind you. Catalonia would be mad to leave the EU, which they will if they secede. The Barcelonian banks are already making plans to move. I think more autonomy would relieve the pressure, but both sides seem to be playing brinkmanship games at the moment.

What has slipped below the radar is the referenda in the northern Italian regions of Lombardy and Veneto this month regarding greater autonomy for those regions. It is all looking rather unsettled.

[JohnL]

EDOldie Wrote:

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> JohnL Wrote:

> --------------------------------------------------

> -----

>

> >

> > As the referendum wasn't legal the "remain

> > Spanish" supporters

> > didn't vote so I can't see any international

> body

> > recognising it.

> >

> > Maybe the constitution of Spain needs to be

> > changed and an official

> > referendum set-up (otherwise we might see a

> re-run

> > of nationalist versus

> > republican.

> >

> > International order seems to be getting fragile

>

> I'd take issue with that, in the eyes of the

> Catalan government it was legal and the Spanish

> did everything they could to stop it. Maybe they

> were too scared of the result to let it go ahead?

That would mean Scotland could ignore Theresa Mays refusal to allow a second referendum and just do it ?. (I read somewhere the polls a week ago showed a majority for staying with Spain - but those voters stayed at home)

I'm not pro or anti independence for Catalonia - it looks bad either way IMHO - but the vote would have been close ..

"The depth of support for independence even in Catalonia is hotly disputed. Opinion polls, although of uncertain reliability, have shown a split in opinion that hovers around 50 percent."

"In 2012, for the first time, 51.1 percent of respondents favored independence, according to the Centre d?Estudis d?Opini?, the official Catalan polling agency. In the most recent regional parliamentary elections, in 2015, 48 percent of voters cast their vote for pro-independence parties."

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/10/03/world/europe/catalonia-independence-referendum.html

[red devil]

Seabag Wrote:

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> So for me it's Cable vs Hammond.

As these things tend to veer into metaphorical dick-swinging, why don't we just go the whole hog and get them to slap their todgers out and be done with it. Biggest todger wins. Peter Snow can be brought out of retirement with his 'swingometer'...

[EDOldie]

JohnL Wrote:

>

> That would mean Scotland could ignore Theresa Mays

> refusal to allow a second referendum and just do

> it ?. (I read somewhere the polls a week ago

> showed a majority for staying with Spain - but

> those voters stayed at home)

>

> I'm not pro or anti independence for Catalonia -

> it looks bad either way IMHO - but the vote would

> have been close ..

>

> "The depth of support for independence even in

> Catalonia is hotly disputed. Opinion polls,

> although of uncertain reliability, have shown a

> split in opinion that hovers around 50 percent."

>

> "In 2012, for the first time, 51.1 percent of

> respondents favored independence, according to the

> Centre d?Estudis d?Opini?, the official Catalan

> polling agency. In the most recent regional

> parliamentary elections, in 2015, 48 percent of

> voters cast their vote for pro-independence

> parties."

>

> https://www.nytimes.com/2017/10/03/world/europe/catalonia-independence-referendum.html

Whats coming from the EU and Spain sounds a bit like project fear to me, I honestly don't think that the Catalans would have called it if they thought they were going lose. Likewise there's no clamor for Scotref2 (is that what it's called?) as the Nationalists think they'll lose at the moment.

[JohnL]

EDOldie Wrote:

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> Whats coming from the EU and Spain sounds a bit

> like project fear to me, I honestly don't think

> that the Catalans would have called it if they

> thought they were going lose. Likewise there's no

> clamor for Scotref2 (is that what it's called?) as

> the Nationalists think they'll lose at the moment.

#Indyref2 they call it on twitter - yes it's gone quiet for a while now.

Lets see what happens with Catalonia - its very complex - and I get the feeling Trump is going to do something incredibly stupid soon (can't find the old Trump thread) but he's said "this is the calm before the storm" - some calm - maybe all this is going to be overshadowed :(.

[EDOldie]

Trump, keeping it on a Spanish theme, Don Quixote if ever I saw one.

[red devil]

JohnL Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> Lets see what happens with Catalonia - its very

> complex - and I get the feeling Trump is going to

> do something incredibly stupid soon (can't find

> the old Trump thread) but he's said "this is the

> calm before the storm" - some calm - maybe all

> this is going to be overshadowed :(.

Near the top of page 3...you posted the last comment :)

Forget about Trump and his utterances (probably meant to be overheard) and get yourself down the pub and watch Wales with a pint in your hand...

[Blah Blah]

The fear with Trump is that he is about to pull the USA out of the deal with Iran, you know, the one that got Iran to stop trying to make a nuclear bomb in return for the lifting of sanctions (seems Trump cares more about the competition in oil production that Iran poses over keeping that region stable with a huge civil war raging next door). The mind boggles.

This is a good article on the Catalonia thing.

http://theduran.com/the-catalan-referendum-is-a-classic-bait-and-switch-operation-by-barcelona/

Spain may not be managing this ongoing issue well, but there is a reason why consitutions exist and have criteria on when elections can be held, and by who.

[Ali Mafi]

Blah Blah Wrote:

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> I would agree with you on Davidson Ali, except

> that she is a fierce ramainer and I can not see

> the wider Tory Party backing her. And David Davis

> is no guarantee for the interim either. He has to

> win several rounds of the Tory's leader selection

> process, with members only voting in the final

> round.

But you forget that 90% of Tories in Parliament are remainers

Trust me Ms Davidson is binding her time before striking and remember also that if it was not for her miraculous results in Scotland we would now have Corbyn in No 10 propped up by The SNP.

I'll go back to my point less than 1/3 of those eligible to vote voted for Brexit and it is a well established fact that it was the younger generation who did not vote and that the majority are remainers

I am a staunch Tory supporter who hates this particular government BUT I do not think they are all numb nuts

The dilemma and the reason why they will not hang their hat on any particular hook is that they know the fact stated above and that a hard Brexit would not only be economically suicidal but also electorally but they have the Euro sceptics and the Brexiters who also need pacifying

I am no fan of May but I can see her problem, damned if she does and damned if she doesn't

As for the thread about being positive being the catch phrase of Brexiters , positive about what ?

The slowest growing economy in the G7? The worst health service? The worst support for the elderly? The greatest number of potholes in our roads? The worst and by, some margin, the most expensive railway system ?

It's just a ridiculous sound bite . We need things fixed not pretending that they are ok

[Blah Blah]

That is a really interesting perspective Ali. Two thirds of Tory voters though, voted leave (Labour have the opposite problem). How to you think Ruth Davidson would sit with that core Tory support out of interest? Would it be a determining issue for those voters for example.

[Alan Medic]

https://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/magazine/how-i-learnt-to-loathe-england

A Dutch view of England having lived here for 6 years. I found it a very interesting read containing a lot of truth.