Brexit View

[red devil]

Anyone expecting the Maybot to change tact, it looks like you shouldn't hold your breath...

And Stephen Bush has a good line on the Theresa May speech in his New Statesman morning briefing.

Just as with the forthcoming Taylor Swift album, we?re all hoping that the full record will be better than the pre-released extracts but it doesn?t exactly look like a floor-filler at the moment. It?s long on optimistic paragraphs about the greatness of the United Kingdom and the European Union but short on realism.

[JohnL]

Theresa May's in Florence then, wonder if anyone might present her with a bill. Florence was a great banking centre once until someone borrowed all the money off the banking companies and refused to pay it back

Oh it was Edward III ;)

https://thefinancialengineer.org/2013/03/31/14th-century-the-crash-of-peruzzi-and-the-bardi-family-in-1345/

[Blah Blah]

Teresa May gave a speech to the UN a couple of days ago. The room was pretty much empty. Says it all really.

[red devil]

JohnL Wrote:

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> Theresa May's in Florence then, wonder if anyone

> might present her with a bill. Florence was a

> great banking centre once until someone borrowed

> all the money off the banking companies and

> refused to pay it back

>

> Oh it was Edward III ;)

>

> https://thefinancialengineer.org/2013/03/31/14th-c

> entury-the-crash-of-peruzzi-and-the-bardi-family-i

> n-1345/

And the church where she's giving the speech houses The Crucifixion of St Phillip. I can think of one Chancellor of the Exchequer who will be fidgeting nervously...

[Blah Blah]

Apparently she is going to quote Machiavelli. The mind boggles.

[JohnL]

Barnier will reply 15 minutes after the speech apparently and he has already quoted Machiavelli in his speech in Rome yesterday (he had to go to Italy too just in case)

"Dove c'? una grande volont?, non possono esserci grandi difficolt?."

"Where the willingness is great, the difficulties cannot be great".

http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_SPEECH-17-3404_en.htm#_ftnref1

If this was two men we'd call it a d**k waving contest .

[JohnL]

Underwhelming to say the least. 2 years is what she wants.

She's managed to annoy both sides.

[pato]

Mrs May seems always one step behind...someone should update her on things.

After USING us,the EU citizens in UK, to make some kind of leverage on the EU ..after checking those people bank accounts..after we had to take (myself personally) 7+kg of papers to show we exist in here after 20 years, after an english test to demonstrate not only we are here but we can actually talk..after deportations and dividing families now she says: We want You to stay...

Can someone tell her that phase is long gone and instead now we want to go?? I thought datas on immigration and ppl leaving UK few weeks ago made it clear..but she probably was busy writing her speech for an empty room at the UN...yeap Blah Blah, I agree with You: it says it all!

She also added she doesn t want a cliff edge for businesses so they don t go away...

Has she noticed that banks, very orderly, are already moving to Frankfurt and science and research in Milan?

she probably was busy writing her speech in Italy where....her speech didn t even make it on the first pages of the newspapers while green pace activities on the river made it as much as the Uber licensing situation...

I have 2 Eu friends in here running businesses one still working here but moved warehouse to France. The other friend, Italian is relocating to Portugal..

A proper leader with a vision!

[JohnL]

Looks like JP Morgan has started down the long road of moving to Warsaw.

https://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2017/09/22/business/22reuters-jpmorgan-poland.html

May just isn't seeing whats happening.

[BrandNewGuy]

Haha, that won't please the greedy burghers of Paris and Frankfurt. Sounds like it's got more to do with employing cheap drones than with Brexit.

[JohnL]

BrandNewGuy Wrote:

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> Haha, that won't please the greedy burghers of

> Paris and Frankfurt. Sounds like it's got more to

> do with employing cheap drones than with Brexit.

probably - has just happened to some in my industry too.

[keano77]

JohnL Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> Looks like JP Morgan has started down the long

> road of moving to Warsaw.

>

> https://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2017/09/22/busines

> s/22reuters-jpmorgan-poland.html

>

> May just isn't seeing whats happening.

They'll be back, cap in hand.

We ought to levy a punitive relocation corporate tax rate. Desert Britain now, beg to come back.

[Loz]

keano77 Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> JohnL Wrote:

> --------------------------------------------------

> -----

> > Looks like JP Morgan has started down the long

> > road of moving to Warsaw.

> >

> >

> https://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2017/09/22/busines

>

> > s/22reuters-jpmorgan-poland.html

> >

> > May just isn't seeing whats happening.

>

> They'll be back, cap in hand.

>

> We ought to levy a punitive relocation corporate

> tax rate. Desert Britain now, beg to come back.

That's really taking delusional to new heights. If we lose the banking passport there will be a stampede to get out.

There was a Brexiter on the Victoria Derbyshire program this morning trying to say Britain would not drop off the cliff edge "because there was no cliff". It's like a new attempt at reality...

[red devil]

The delusion is often married with a dismissive arrogance, not a nice combination.

Brexiteers have been maintaining this delusional, simplistic concept, that we could simply walk away without there being serious repercussions. Nothing has been properly thought through beyond that concept. Even the leave campaign's head honcho has admitted it's been a shambles, that even A50 was invoked far too early. May's speech yesterday was finally a public admittance of that...

[miga]

We should really all just punch ourselves in the face until the EU gives us what we want.

[JohnL]

Well extra two years (if they let Theresa May have it)

Could it really just be a case of kicking the can up the road and hoping.

[Alan Medic]

Why should the EU let TM have an extra 2 years? The whole thing is just unreal. Look at this...

[Blah Blah]

I think it is reality check time for leavers. Most people who voted leave have no understanding of how business, trade and exports work, none whatsoever. The politicians driving the leave campaign deliberately didn't educate them on any of that (and nor did the remain side either to be fair). Experts tried to warn about all of this but people with simplistic world views don't ever listen to experts. There was a flurry of leave voters who claimed they had done their research, but then couldn't hold an informed conversation about any of it. In a nutshell, they voted leave for reasons around immigration and who makes the rules, over the really important issue of economics and trade.

Even if we decided to not leave the EU, the damage is now done. Business is relocating (as we were warmed it would), skilled people are leaving the country, as we were warned they would, prices and inflation are up, the pound is down and the economy is slowing to a rate taking us closer to recession, just as it was warned it would.

Slowly we are going to conceed to every EU demand in order to get a deal. I would still put money on us ending up staying in the SM and CU. The Tory Party will rip itself apart in the process.

[Loz]

Blah Blah Wrote:

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> The Tory Party will rip itself apart in the process.

Labour is hardly looking like it has any party agreement on Brexit either.

I'm still hoping that both the Tories and Labour split, with the centre-left and centre-right coming together to form a new Macron-style party (dare I say Blair-style?) and save the country from the morons on both the further right and further left.

[Blah Blah]

I don't diagree with you there Loz, but I also think that we are in for a run of hung and coalition government, before the centre ground splits away and forms a new party. A Labour SNP coalition is less likely to remove us from the SM and CU than a Tory/ DUP one. But you are right in that Corbyn's eurosceptic position is a minority one amongst labour MPs. And I don't expect that to change as the hard left has had very little success in changing the shape of local constituency parties.

[Seabag]

2021

Plenty of time for a new generation to save us

[Loz]

Blah Blah Wrote:

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> A Labour SNP coalition is less likely to remove us from the SM

> and CU than a Tory/ DUP one.

That's a thought. Sturgeon would run rings around Corby in a coalition.

[Blah Blah]

Yes, Sturgeon might be the voice of reason in that coalition. But the price might be another referendum on independence for Scotland, although I don't think there is appetite for that in Scotland. Some think that part of the swing away from the SNP has been because of the obsession with independence. I also think the Tories and esp the brexiteers, are terrified of a Labour SNP coalition, and also now see that as a real posibility. The two year transition deal is designed to make sure that the Tories, if parliament goes the full term, will have had complete control of Brexit and made sure we are fully out just by election time, without the impacts of a cliff having hit yet, to affect their electoral chances. It's a plan based purely on political expediency, not what is best for the country. Lots can go very wrong in the meantime and force an early election of course.

[Alan Medic]

https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/200634

This is for the government to publish it's own Brexit impact/risk assessments. We have a right to know. We paid for them.

[red devil]

The Gov is using the excuse not to publish those reports saying it will weaken their hand in negotiations. The same excuse they used when people asked what their plans were for EU nationals in the UK. As we subsequently found out, there was no plan. Please Sir, can we have more time?...