Brexit View

[Hemingway]

Sorry, for clarity we both agree on being in not exiting!

[Hemingway]

'one reason only' - we had a WA on the table. MPs across the board rejected it, hence we face no deal.

[diable rouge]

Hemingway Wrote:

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> 'one reason only' - we had a WA on the table. MPs

> across the board rejected it, hence we face no

> deal.

I realise that No Deal is the legal default should a deal not be passed, I've had to stress that point on here many times in the past. But that doesn't mean No deal has to happen, there are mechanisms to at least delay it. Since May was booted out the Tory party have been actively choosing the No Deal route in order to save their party. Pointing your finger and saying it's Remain MPs fault is like blaming the gunsmith for making the gun...

[Sephiroth]

"Map me out how we get back in without now exiting (an outcome that you and I both agree is by far the best), I just can't see it politically."

It not being politically possible isn't the same as it being easy/hard. The lack of the political possibility is a strange outcome of this strange countries view of itself, the unwillingness of politicians or media to tell hard truths to the electorate.

But we don't have to get back in because we haven't left - and not leaving is easy IF we had someone willing to step up.

An election is coming - and someone is going to have revoke/ref2 in the manifesto. I think that is what will end this politically. All it takes is senior people to step up and stop pretending there is some benign brexit

But I accept it's entirely possible the whole country is too afraid/polite to countenance such a thing

[Sephiroth]

"nd saying it's Remain MPs fault "

indeed - but equally many prominent leavers voted the WA down as well. It's because Brexit isn't real

Not as it exists in leaver's heads anyway - leaving the EU is possible but any single version can't command a majority. Only the hand-wavy, drunk on it's own promises unicorn version can command a majority

[diable rouge]

There's a game theory that Johnson, rather than scaring the EU into a last minute deal with threats of No Deal, is actually deliberately scaring MPs so he can later offer up May's WA one more time nearer the deadline. It would have a much better chance of passing and he would've met his pledge of leaving by 31/10 ''by any means necessary''. A long shot and wouldn't be popular with the ERG headbangers (who Cummings hates by the way), but it fits in with Cummings' strategic thinking.

This is a good article on the ways and means Parliament can still prevent a No Deal... https://www.politics.co.uk/blogs/2019/08/13/psychological-warfare-over-no-deal-masks-a-strategic-vulnera

[pk]

Hemingway Wrote:

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> 'one reason only' - we had a WA on the table. MPs

> across the board rejected it, hence we face no

> deal.

Obvs there?s not one reason only

[diable rouge]

Oof, here's comes another...

The irony of blue passports produced by a French company and printed in Poland that cannot be guaranteed to be imported into the UK because a no deal Brexit means that no trade agreement will be in place to allow the blue passports to enter the UK.

[JohnL]

Hemingway Wrote:

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> 'one reason only' - we had a WA on the table. MPs

> across the board rejected it, hence we face no

> deal.

It still was and is a bad deal compared to EU membership.

Works economically and keeps food on the table but UK loses it's voice at the top table.

[Alan Medic]

Allow the UK to unilaterally decide to leave the backstop on condition the people of NI are allowed to vote on having 'special status' is an option worthy of consideration as this article suggests:

https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/let-people-of-northern-ireland-decide-their-brexit-fate-1.3985214

[JohnL]

The best offer was "everything stays the same for 5 years whilst we sort out what we want" IMHO which isn't that much longer than the implementation period plus already agreed extension.

[JohnL]

Alan Medic Wrote:

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> Allow the UK to unilaterally decide to leave the

> backstop on condition the people of NI are allowed

> to vote on having 'special status' is an option

> worthy of consideration as this article suggests:

>

> https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/let-people-of-n

> orthern-ireland-decide-their-brexit-fate-1.3985214

Arlene just fell of her chair

[Hemingway]

.

>

> An election is coming - and someone is going to

> have revoke/ref2 in the manifesto. I think that is

> what will end this politically. All it takes is

> senior people to step up and stop pretending there

> is some benign brexit

the one senior person who could perhaps swing this is unfortunately an adolescent minded, pro-Brexit, Marxist unbelievably in charge of the Labour Party. No-one in the Tories especially wants to or can do this, Hammond's trying and, sadly, the Greens and LDs son't have the numbers when you look at polls or even the Euro elections.

In this situation, May's deal was our best hope for the least damaging exit giving us some time to contemplate our collective stupidity. Where we are now, on the brink of no deal, was the most likely outcome of rejecting her deal and yet many now lamenting the horrors no deal made that decision on political grounds, and often to save their own skins, rather than caring about their constituents.

[Sephiroth]

Agreed with that

But perhaps if politicians, papers and sections of the public weren?t screaming to leave the eu at any cost it would leave room for politicians to manoeuvre

After more than 3 years it?s clear leaving can?t be done to the country?s satisfaction. obsessing over leaving in some shape or form is a weird pursuit at this point. Many leave voters wanted membership of single market for example. Mays deal wouldn?t give them that

It?s really better for everyone if everyone just moves the conversation how to not leave

[JohnL]

Accusing your opponents of ?terrible collaboration?

Now who would say that.

[carlafindle]

JohnL Wrote:

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> Accusing your opponents of ?terrible

> collaboration?

>

> Now who would say that.

Hmmm... is he orange?

[Passiflora]

Sephiroth Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> Agreed with that

>

> But perhaps if politicians, papers and sections of

> the public weren?t screaming to leave the eu at

> any cost it would leave room for politicians to

> manoeuvre

>

> After more than 3 years it?s clear leaving can?t

> be done to the country?s satisfaction. obsessing

> over leaving in some shape or form is a weird

> pursuit at this point. Many leave voters wanted

> membership of single market for example. Mays

> deal wouldn?t give them that

>

> It?s really better for everyone if everyone just

> moves the conversation how to not leave

Why should we move the conversation on to how not to leave the EU when the majority voted to leave?

[Sephiroth]

Because ?Brexit? is a mirage

You can point to a narrow referendum victory from 3 and a half years ago but you can?t define what leaving means AND still command a majority for that definition. That?s why we haven?t left after all this time. It?s costly, leaves us with less power, open to bigger nations taking advantage, and could end the United Kingdom and return violence to NI

Latest survation shows the changing picture - good thread here

Keybtakeaway

?

Key takeaways:

1️⃣ Remain would probably win in a 2nd ref

2️⃣ This is what public opinion looks like *without* any clear cues on this issue from the main opposition party! If Lab campaigns for Remain in a 2nd ref, public opinion should shift even further.?

[Sephiroth]

Irish peeps in the UK- you might want to have an oul read of this delightful bit of info about your possible future.

The UK Government is creating a tiered system for Irish citizens - here?s how by Emma DeSouza https://link.medium.com/KNtRnFAp9Y

[JohnL]

Maybe we're moving slowly towards a caretaker government under Harriet Harman or Ken Clarke.

[diable rouge]

The Brextremists are happy to No Deal by any means necessary, and so should the anti-No Dealers. It shouldn't really matter who leads a temp caretaker Gov if they all agree they want to stop No Deal and get an extension for a GE and/or referendum. I can understand Corbyn's wish to lead it as he's the LOTO with the most seats, and it will look good for him going into No. 10 even for a short period, equally the right wing press and Brextremists would self-combust. Every cloud etc...

[cella]

Agree.

[JohnL]

Hearing a bit recently that implies fear of Brexit is gaining real traction in some companies. These small fears can so easily multiply.

[Seabag]

I like Ken Clarke, his Twitter account is hilarious. We need a PM with a sense of humour, specially one who likes beer, jazz and smoking.

[Sephiroth]

That?s not his real twitter account tho is it?