Brexit View

[Jenny1]

keano77 Wrote:

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> It?s a bit like the scene from the Good (UK), the

> Bad (EU) and the Ugly (EU again)

>

> Trigger fingers getting itchy, who?s going to draw

> first.

Sorry Keano77. What do you mean? On the face of it your jokey statement looks like the very definition of the 'zero sum' view of international relations that got us into this mess in the first place. You seem to be implying that the EU's attempts to preserve peace in Northern Ireland are some kind of dastardly plot, and that good old Blighty shouldn't let them get away with it. But I don't think you can mean that really, can you?

[Sephiroth]

It is amazing how most people in the rest of the world can see how crazy the whole thing is - apart from the diehard, committed leavers

Tusk is only doing some straight talking and instead of thinking he might have a point, it's all "ha ha - the EU are starting to blink"

It's possible, I suppose, to think that people like Farage, JRM, Johnson and co are on the side of Good - and most people viewing this madness are Wrong - but it's unlikely isn't it?

And as I said to robbin, if people like me are wrong, whoopsie. Ah well

But if Leavers are wrong*, then yes, "hell" won't be too far off the mark

*and they are.

[Sephiroth]

" But I don't think you can mean that really, can you?"

Jenny - love your posts, but you must have realised by now that keano is a bit "Typewriter Courier 12 FONT on A4 paper posted to the lamppost by the station" by now?

I've long stopped trying to see the good in people - simply look at his posting history. It's simply not pleasant

[Jenny1]

edcam Wrote:

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> Tusk has realised how screwed we are, now that

> there's unequivocal evidence of Corbyn's desire

> for Brexit, so he's not pretending any more.

>

> He is 100% accurate.

>

> The BBC's misreporting of this is very telling

> indeed.

Sadly, yes.

To be honest I've seen the failure of BBC Domestic News and Current Affairs programmes to properly report the issue of the UK's place in Europe as being a major weakness for a long time. The World Service has been better at this - though by no means flawless. In the last two-three years I'd see a couple of factors at play in undermining the BBC's capacity to report properly. Political coverage across domestic TV and radio has long been comfortable with simply following the 'theatre' of Labour v Conservative in the Commons. When an issue cuts across parties and doesn't fit that simple model they don't really know what to do. Also there's been great anxiety about falling audiences for News and current affairs - so baked into programme-planning is the idea that the main task is to attract a larger audience. It's perceived that the best way to do that is to set up dramatic confrontations - which usually convey no information, or are actively misleading. It seems to be considered very boring to interview anyone who can simply offer informed fact rather than contribute to the 'drama' of a story.

[Sephiroth]

Two things will happen

1) we leave the EU - with or without a deal. It will be either hideous or so hideous as to be untenable. Either way, we will, without any shadow of a doubt, be applying to join the EU at some point in the future. And of course we won't have any of the opt outs we have now#

2) We revoke A50 and cancel Brexit and save everyone a lot of pain, worry and time. I don't really care how - I tried to be nice and support another referendum but too late for that now

SO my advice to Leavers would be ditch the ego, and the fevered dreams and do this sooner rather than later

Of course, the reaction to this will be "you are arrogant, attitudes like that etc etc" - I literally don't care. What I DO care about is the state of the country - you are not taking a responsible attitude towards it. You are taking a highly dangerous attitude towards it - that's on you and has nothing to do with what I say or how I say it

[keano77]

Jenny1 Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> keano77 Wrote:

> --------------------------------------------------

> -----

> > It?s a bit like the scene from the Good (UK),

> the

> > Bad (EU) and the Ugly (EU again)

> >

> > Trigger fingers getting itchy, who?s going to

> draw

> > first.

>

> Sorry Keano77. What do you mean? On the face of it

> your jokey statement looks like the very

> definition of the 'zero sum' view of international

> relations that got us into this mess in the first

> place. You seem to be implying that the EU's

> attempts to preserve peace in Northern Ireland are

> some kind of dastardly plot, and that good old

> Blighty shouldn't let them get away with it. But I

> don't think you can mean that really, can you?

In my opinion Jenny1 it?s got bugger all to do with the peace process. Ireland has been used as a pawn in this process all along. The reason people like Tusk are starting to crack under the pressure is because ponzi schemes like the EU need to keep money flowing in or they collapse.

Tusk et al are looking over the precipice. If they keep to their ideological stance no-deal will ensue, the EU will be forced to impose a border ironically and the EU loses squillions from Britain.

The EU is playing a dangerous game and if May is humiliated again at her visit to Brussels on Thursday there will be huge support from the British people to just walk away.

Hope that?s answered your question.

[robbin]

Sephiroth Wrote:

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> @ robbin

>

> "Just so I'm clear, what do you mean by "people

> like you Robbin"?"

>

> People like you = are happy to leave, think

> everything will be ok or amazing

As I have repeatedly said for 2 years now on EDF (twice, I think, in this thread alone), I voted to remain. I am not happy we are leaving - that's why I voted to remain, however I'm also not hysterical about it, nor have I shut my eyes to all the pros and cons or the realities of the situation. There's precious little of any balanced argument on here - I would estimate it's about 95% (which even for the bubble is hardly representative of the referendum voting)hard liners bitching repeatedly about leaving the EU and suggesting people who voted for it are stupid, racist, evil or have been easily conned. It's not really a good reflection on the collective intelligence or maturity in our bubble.

Unfortunately there is not really any 'debate' about the issue on here - it's mostly self-serving comments from rabid remainers who would never countenance for one moment that they are not 100% right (they plainly are not) or that anyone who thinks different is not 100% stupid. If, like me you venture to suggest anything that's not entirely anti Brexit, the usual suspect don't seem to have the wit to engage with that without (incorrect) sniping about me being a die hard Leave voter. I keep getting that sort of ill-considered knee-jerk response, even though I repeatedly make clear my position on the referendum.

[Jenny1]

keano77 Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> Jenny1 Wrote:

> --------------------------------------------------

> -----

> > keano77 Wrote:

> >

> ----------------------------------------------

> Hope that?s answered your question.

I'm afraid not Keano77, no. We're never going to agree on this, are we? Probably best not to try.

I would just say that once more your comments suggest you perceive all of this as a 'zero sum' game. And as I said before, it's that view of international relations that got us into this mess in the first place.

[keano77]

I?m sure we both agree Jenny1 that we want the best for the UK and Ireland, we just disagree how best to achieve that.

[Sephiroth]

"happy to leave, think

> everything will be ok or amazing"

I didn't think painted you as a die hard Leave voter? I just thought it was a summary of your current position?

As for the tone of the debate - look, I'm sorry if you don't like it. But not EVERYTHING has a weighty balance of pros and cons. Somethings are self-evidently bad - this is one of them, It's not my fault if you are determined to find the pros. We COULD debate for ever - it won't change the actuality that we are currently scheduled to leave the EU in a couple of weeks, without a deal with widely predicted catastrophic consequences. And we are doing it led by a shower of inadequates, and a similar opposition. The Leave leaders at time of referendum have walked away from positions in cabinet and abandoned the country to even lesser intellects

[JoeLeg]

I?d say there will only be ?huge support? for walking away (ergo No Deal) from that part of the population that voted Leave. There?s a lot of people out there who don?t really care what kind of economic pain we go through, in order to Leave.

Personally I think that?s somewhat cruel on the 48%, but as was pointed on by someone (I forget who) it sometimes feels like on June 24th 52% became 100% and 48% became 0%.

I?d agree Ireland has been a tool for both sides on this, and I think it?s interesting no one, absolutely no one, was talking about the border during the campaign. Because no one had a clue what to do about it.

You talk of May being ?humiliated?. I?d argue that only applies if she can be seen as having been a reasonable negotiator during this process. She hasn?t. She?s f?ed it up from day one. She should never have triggered A50 so early, because that told the EU there was no way we had our house in order, and they knew they just had to piss about for two years and it would drive the whole thing to the precipice.

And yes, at this point it?s all getting a bit squeaky bum on both sides - except hard Brexiteers who want to invoke the spirit of an age that never existed and walk away.

May was under no obligation to start the clock going. She should?ve entered into negotiations here with the Remainers in Cabinet and the ERG and made in plain to all of them that th UK had to present a united front, otherwise Brussels would screw us.

She didn?t, and here we are. YOu can?t lay all the blame at the feet of Tusk, Barnier et al. The govt has done an excellent job of screwing this up handily.

[robbin]

I agree, Keano. I chuckled when I read that about the EU wanting to protect the peace in Ireland! If that is even slightly true, it will soon become clear because if the EU refuse to do any deal other than the now defunct backstop in the now defunct WA there will be a border of sorts put in place.

For the EU to say that there MUST be a WA with a backstop that avoids a hard border, otherwise no deal, when the effect of no deal is to introduce a border belies their position - their true position is to use Ireland as a pawn in negotiations. The EU would 'drop' Ireland the moment it suited them to do so - Ireland are minnows in this (which is why their economy would take a battering far beyond anything we would suffer in the UK in the event of a disorderly no deal scenario). The self-contradictory position of the Irish government suffers from the same basic flaw and now the reality of that has dawned on them.

[JoeLeg]

. Double post.

[Jenny1]

Sephiroth Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> Two things will happen

>

> 1) we leave the EU - with or without a deal. It

> will be either hideous or so hideous as to be

> untenable. Either way, we will, without any shadow

> of a doubt, be applying to join the EU at some

> point in the future. And of course we won't have

> any of the opt outs we have now#

>

> 2) We revoke A50 and cancel Brexit and save

> everyone a lot of pain, worry and time. I don't

> really care how - I tried to be nice and support

> another referendum but too late for that now

>

> SO my advice to Leavers would be ditch the ego,

> and the fevered dreams and do this sooner rather

> than later

>

> Of course, the reaction to this will be "you are

> arrogant, attitudes like that etc etc" - I

> literally don't care. What I DO care about is the

> state of the country - you are not taking a

> responsible attitude towards it. You are taking a

> highly dangerous attitude towards it - that's on

> you and has nothing to do with what I say or how I

> say it

Agreed. Personally I don't think it's too late to manage the extension to Article 50 and a 'People's Vote'. But it suits May and Corbyn to pretend otherwise. Corbyn's 'tactics' I don't pretend to understand (I strongly suspect he doesn't himself), but I guess May is just ploughing on in the mis-placed belief that the brinkmanship that served her well when she was at the Home Office and dealing with internal UK or EU issues will work when the UK has deliberately given itself 'third party status'. Massive mis-judgement. She seems to perceive herself as merely some kind of negotiator between the extreme right of her own party and the EU. She's taking no ownership for the consequences of her actions.

[Sephiroth]

"I?d agree Ireland has been a tool for both sides on this, and I think it?s interesting no one, absolutely no one, was talking about the border during the campaign. Because no one had a clue what to do about it. "

sorry Joe - but this is bobbins on two counts

Ireland is a smart enough country to not be a tool on anyone side - bit of an insulting comment tbh

Secondly - people WERE talking about it - but they were either nobodies like me, someobodies that are people who are now disliked, like Blair, or generally dismissed as part of Project Fear

Like so much of this, we are in a mess precisely because this country is insufficiently interested in listening to others

here are two big names talking about Ireland weeks before the referendum

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/09/tony-blair-and-john-major-brexit-would-close-irish-border

Here is Boris Johnson dismissing fears months before the referendum

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-35692452

[Jenny1]

robbin Wrote:

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> I agree, Keano. I chuckled when I read that about

> the EU wanting to protect the peace in Ireland! If

> that is even slightly true, it will soon become

> clear because if the EU refuse to do any deal

> other than the now defunct backstop in the now

> defunct WA there will be a border of sorts put in

> place.

>

> For the EU to say that there MUST be a WA with a

> backstop that avoids a hard border, otherwise no

> deal, when the effect of no deal is to introduce a

> border belies their position - their true position

> is to use Ireland as a pawn in negotiations. The

> EU would 'drop' Ireland the moment it suited them

> to do so - Ireland are minnows in this (which is

> why their economy would take a battering far

> beyond anything we would suffer in the UK in the

> event of a disorderly no deal scenario). The

> self-contradictory position of the Irish

> government suffers from the same basic flaw and

> now the reality of that has dawned on them.

I don't see your logic there at all Robbin. Working through this bit by bit, let's start with the 'defunct backstop', as you call it. The UK government were happy to sign up to this. Why would any sane person object to it?

[Sephiroth]

Rereading robbin's posts from around the referendum, it's hard to square them with someone who didn't want to Leave

as well as the quote below, there was a whole bit about if we remain Turkey will definitely be joining the EU which is straight out of the UKIP/Leave playbook

robbin: "I wouldn't panic if I were you, in the (unlikely) event there is a 'Leave' majority vote this week. The sky won't fall in. Longer term we will also be able to enter into free trade agreements with huge markets like India and China, which we are barred from doing individually as part of the EU (the EU talks opened with India in relation to their massive economy in 2007, but still no great progress!). Australia is another Commonwealth country we have always had close ties with (as with India) but which we are barred from having our own free trade deal with as part of the EU.

There will be plenty of economic opportunities far exceeding those in the EU (in regard to which, after all, we are net importers, not net exporters). It would be a shame if because of scaremongering from people who cannot be trusted (eg Dodgy Dave), or people with vested interests, you took a short term view and left to move abroad to some EU country. Go for the sunshine by all means, or the food, but not for the wrong/short term reasons!"

[Jenny1]

keano77 Wrote:

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> I?m sure we both agree Jenny1 that we want the

> best for the UK and Ireland, we just disagree how

> best to achieve that.

I would also hope that we are both wanting the best for our European neighbours, and indeed the whole world. Always worth remembering that 'No Man is an Island....' - even if he's living on one.

[Sephiroth]

given the number of people happy saying things like "ireland is just a pawn", you'll forgive me if I don't believe any of those people saying they have Ireland's interests at heart

And that's the nicest thing leave-leaning English people say - it's usually much more insulting and often racist than that

figure out where the border is and show a bit of respect before you claim to have our interests at heart

https://www.thejournal.ie/brexit-ireland-border-2-3721935-Nov2017/

[keano77]

Sephiroth Wrote:

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> given the number of people happy saying things

> like "ireland is just a pawn", you'll forgive me

> if I don't believe any of those people saying they

> have Ireland's interests at heart

>

> And that's the nicest thing leave-leaning English

> people say - it's usually much more insulting and

> often racist than that

>

> figure out where the border is and show a bit of

> respect before you claim to have our interests at

> heart

> https://www.thejournal.ie/brexit-ireland-border-2-

> 3721935-Nov2017/

You may not be totally objective on this point Sephiroth

[Jenny1]

keano77 Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> Sephiroth Wrote:

> --------------------------------------------------

> -----

> > given the number of people happy saying things

> > like "ireland is just a pawn", you'll forgive

> me

> > if I don't believe any of those people saying

> they

> > have Ireland's interests at heart

> >

> > And that's the nicest thing leave-leaning

> English

> > people say - it's usually much more insulting

> and

> > often racist than that

> >

>

> You may not be totally objective on this point

> Sephiroth

But K77. Would you see the suggestions from Brexit-promoting MPs that Ireland might like to leave the EU and re-join the UK as being in some way objective? What do you think that says both about their respect for the views of the Irish people and their knowledge of the history of Ireland and the UK? Aren't you concerned that some of the most prominent voices in our political life are so disregarding of the bloody recent past?

[robbin]

To put it mildly, Keano!

Sephiroth, I'm flattered you took the time to look at some of my older posts, but I think you have just proved my point (again) by your implied suggestion that in fact I didn't vote to remain.

Nothing in what you quoted suggests that (if you engaged any sort of objectivity to it) I was pushing for a leave vote. As part of what you quoted makes clear, I thought it unlikely there would be a majority to leave. Just because I was responding to hysterical postings by setting out what I saw as some 'pros' to a Brexit, you rush to interpret that as some confirmation that I was a leave supporter (presumably to try to support your already incorrect assumption that was the case). You couldn't be more wrong and you have just demonstrated my point yet again as well as demonstrating your absence of objectivety or willingness to enter into any sort of intelligent debate.

ETA: Not that I am inviting you to do so now - it's clear you are one of those who are not prepared to consider anything other than your entrenched views, so I think I've said all I want to say on the subject, as what we are doing is not debating. I think some sort of a deal must still be likely (but far from certain) so we may never see whether there would have been any significant disruption on borders, but if there is no deal, we can take stock in May and see whether yours was a hysterical position or a correct one.

[Sephiroth]

"You may not be totally objective on this point Sephiroth"

hark at Mr objective there. Brits belittling thick Paddies again. Instead of saying "you may not be totally objective" - how about going with "as you know more about Ireland than I do..."

robbin - stop saying that I'm trying to claim you voted Leave. I keep making the same point today - you are very relaxed about Leaving. But as you aren't reading what I'm saying, I'm not sure you are in any position to wag your finger and scold me about my objectivity, lack of

You voted remain and have said so repeatedly - I am merely saying your posts read like a Leaver. Both of those things can be true

[Jenny1]

Sephiroth Wrote:

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> given the number of people happy saying things

> like "ireland is just a pawn", you'll forgive me

> if I don't believe any of those people saying they

> have Ireland's interests at heart

>

I think this insistence on seeing Ireland as some kind of helpless 'pawn' is revealing. It usually means that people haven't seen, or don't want to acknowledge, that a country, however small, is much more powerful as part of the EU than out of it. The reality is of course that Ireland's interests will continue to have the weight of the EU to back them up whereas the UK will be greatly diminished on the international stage, if we do end up leaving.

[diable rouge]

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