Brexit View

[Jenny1]

So. In what professional environment would the following be acceptable?

As per Brandon Lewis this morning (The Times and Today Programme).....the government is now going to do some research and will have 'the best evidence possible.....on the impact of exiting the EU on the UK economy' by September 2018.

It might have been of some use if this work had been commissioned five years ago. Not now.

If commercial enterprises adopted such a cavaliaer and tardy approach to 'doing their homework' they would go bankrupt within weeks. If researchers into drugs took this course, fresh thalidomide scandals would be happening every month. If engineers employed this strategy we'd have given up on bridge and tunnel building centuries ago, as it would have proved too costly to human life.

[JohnL]

or as Larry @Number10Cat tweeted (he gets more & more political)

"Amber Rudd has commissioned a major study into shutting stable doors after horses have bolted and been blamed for bad stable door management"

Meanwhile Theresa Mays gone on a 3 week walking holiday in northern Italy (does she care anymore).

[Seabag]

Jenny1 Wrote:

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> So. In what professional environment would the

> following be acceptable?

>

> As per Brandon Lewis this morning (The Times and

> Today Programme).....the government is now going

> to do some research and will have 'the best

> evidence possible.....on the impact of exiting the

> EU on the UK economy' by September 2018.

>

> It might have been of some use if this work had

> been commissioned five years ago. Not now.

>

> If commercial enterprises adopted such a cavaliaer

> and tardy approach to 'doing their homework' they

> would go bankrupt within weeks. If researchers

> into drugs took this course, fresh thalidomide

> scandals would be happening every month. If

> engineers employed this strategy we'd have given

> up on bridge and tunnel building centuries ago, as

> it would have proved too costly to human life.

It's not acceptable, we know that and they know that. But it's what we've got, mostly because the powers that be never expected to be here, the gamble failed and this 'unimaginable' scenario is now real. So we shuffle onward, because no real planning means making it up as we go along.

Of course those who are pushing for this will say it's new unchartered territory and that's to be expected.

But it's a shite shambles, it's hurting our country, our economy and making us the laughing stock of the developed world.

Only that we have Donald Trump and the Korean leader to thank for making us look less deranged and self destructive, it's relative, but there we go.

I hope Teresa is having a nice time.

Like David Davis said "I'm sure nobody will be following us" or something to that effect.

[keano77]

It's to do with working out our future immigration policy and is a perfectly sensible idea. It's easy to forget that after 40 years of being a subjugated nation to the EU dictatorship we've lost the habit of making our own rules.

So we'll need x thousand pea pickers in Lincolnshire, asparagus in Cambridgeshire and fruit and veg harvesters all round the country for example. No problem, give them visas for the season as part of the immigration quota to be employed directly by the British Businesses concerned. With luck it will cut out the criminal gang masters who oversee much of this murky business.

As an aside, I see one of the sticking points in the EU negotiations at the moment is the EU rejection of Britain's perfectly sensible suggestion that all EU Citizens entering The UK post Brexit be given criminal records checks. I wonder what the EU has to hide?

[JohnL]

keano77 Wrote:

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> It's to do with working out our future immigration

> policy and is a perfectly sensible idea. It's easy

> to forget that after 40 years of being a

> subjugated nation to the EU dictatorship we've

> lost the habit of making our own rules.

>

> So we'll need x thousand pea pickers in

> Lincolnshire, asparagus in Cambridgeshire and

> fruit and veg harvesters all round the country for

> example. No problem, give them visas for the

> season as part of the immigration quota to be

> employed directly by the British Businesses

> concerned. With luck it will cut out the criminal

> gang masters who oversee much of this murky

> business.

>

> As an aside, I see one of the sticking points in

> the EU negotiations at the moment is the EU

> rejection of Britain's perfectly sensible

> suggestion that all EU Citizens entering The UK

> post Brexit be given criminal records checks. I

> wonder what the EU has to hide?

The EU has always been sensitive about sharing criminal

records with non EU countries - US is not supposed to know

if you have a criminal record (but UK secretly shared ours

anyway).

I think it's because the EU believes someone who smoked a

joint 30 years ago should not be banned from US (or UK in future).

[Jenny1]

keano77 Wrote:

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> It's to do with working out our future immigration

> policy and is a perfectly sensible idea.

I'm afraid I don't share your sunny view of our current leaders' ability to plan ahead keano77 - or to adopt any policy based on it's usefulness, rather than it's short-term, knee-jerk ideological appeal.

However - even putting my own interpretation of the political landscape aside. Imagine that you were a government which was really focused (as you suggest) on doing the best thing for farmers, and working out how to efficiently achieve that. Would you put them through at least two years of inadequate labour supply before coming up with a plan? How many businesses will fold in that time do you think?

And of course there are all the other areas of our economy and society which have benefited from highly skilled employees from the EU. The NHS not least amongst them. These are people with lives to plan and families to care for. They're not hanging around to see what a Home Office report says in eighteen months time. They're leaving already. That's not a problem for them. It's a problem for us.

In any business or organisation, private or public, a failure of transition-planning spells disaster. Anyone who has ever managed anything knows that.

[JohnL]

So many East Europeans that have served me at coffee shops and pubs telling me they're leaving. A few UK people seem to have left too (probably planned to already but Brexit accelerated their plans).

NHS will be looking to India (again) to fill their shortages.

[Jenny1]

Seabag Wrote:

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> But it's a shite shambles, it's hurting our

> country, our economy and making us the laughing

> stock of the developed world.

>

I agree. I love this country fiercely. I will never forgive the unprincipled fools who are dragging it into the dirt.

[malumbu]

Interesting point on East Europeans as many second generation voted to leave the EU and the general anti-EU feeling being propagated in Poland and being bought in by some recent arrivals. I've got a few Polish friends so this is based on the facts. Just surprised that the EU has been generally positive for the East.

[JohnL]

malumbu Wrote:

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> Interesting point on East Europeans as many second

> generation voted to leave the EU and the general

> anti-EU feeling being propagated in Poland and

> being bought in by some recent arrivals. I've got

> a few Polish friends so this is based on the

> facts. Just surprised that the EU has been

> generally positive for the East.

Poland would have been a natural ally for Britain but some

of the things that happened after the Brexit vote scuppered

some of that.

William and Kate out there mending relations though so the

government realises :)

[keano77]

I share your concerns Jenny1. Of course we'll need experienced, qualified, professionals and experts in many areas.

I just don't understand your negativity. If many of the bleeding heart remainers stopped whinging and contributed positively this country would benefit greatly.

An example here. There was much mirth among remainers recently at the staged photo of the heads of the negotiating teams at the last EU talks. The EU teams has big thick files on the table, the British no paperwork. Cue laughing stock of Europe donkey-like braying, we don't know what we're doing etc. In fact, the UK had some 90 odd civil servants in their team to the EU's 40-odd.

One of the points that was examined by our dry civil servants was EU citizen access to the UK post-Brexit. So to take your example of EU Citizens fleeing Uncertain Britain above. Let's say, Helmut and Helga are two German doctors living and working in the NHS for the past five years, model Citizens, contributing fully. Their son Hansel, born in Berlin is now 15, lives with them here, goes to school here and is a popular pupil at school.

Now, given the Brexit uncertainties, Helmut and Helga decide to take up different posts in, say, Paris, taking Hansel with them. After three years, Hansel, now 18, decides Paris is a bit dull and post-Brexit UK is where all the action is. Hansel has no obvious skills or expertise to go to the top of our immigration priorities list.

Our dry civil servants asked the EU team the question - can Hansel just get off the Eurostar and demand the right to enter Britain because his parents worked here once as EU Citizens?

No matter how much thumbing through those pristine files you saw in the photograph the EU team couldn't answer that question and will have to liaise internally to formulate a response.

In short, we seem to be losing the PR war with the EU machine but I think you'll find that our negotiators are more than a match for Barnier and his cronies. Shame so many remainers seem to enjoy putting Britain down.

[edhistory]

Just in case you have not read it:

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/commissioning-letter-to-the-migration-advisory-committee

[JohnL]

keano77 Wrote:

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> In short, we seem to be losing the PR war with the

> EU machine but I think you'll find that our

> negotiators are more than a match for Barnier and

> his cronies. Shame so many remainers seem to enjoy

> putting Britain down.

It's not putting Britain down - it's a political play with the

ultimate aim of Remain.

I've seen these 'games' since the early 80s and Thatchers time

not a lot has changed except it's more visible due to social media

- once all the dirty stuff wasn't seen by most people.

[Alan Medic]

keano77 Wrote:

>

> Our dry civil servants asked the EU team the

> question - can Hansel just get off the Eurostar

> and demand the right to enter Britain because his

> parents worked here once as EU Citizens?

>

> No matter how much thumbing through those pristine

> files you saw in the photograph the EU team

> couldn't answer that question and will have to

> liaise internally to formulate a response.

Are you serious? Would you like to say what your source is for this?

I suppose it hasn't occurred to you the only people who could answer that question are the UK authorities, as they will be making the rules up.

[Jenny1]

keano77 Wrote:

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> Shame so many remainers seem to enjoy

> putting Britain down.

I'm a remainer Keano77. I also have, as stated above, a passionate love for my country. I particularly resent it when people like Andrea Leadsom claim that being a remainer means that I don't. I'm sure you wouldn't repeat her mistake.

I'm certain there are rafts of competent civil servants in our negotiating team. I have great respect for the civil service. But from my perspective we shouldn't even be having these conversations about a post-EU UK. It's a criminal waste of our collective national resources to be worrying about what happens to 'Hansel' (or even 'Gretel'), and indeed embarking on this whole project in the first place.

Because in my view the Brexit philosophy was always based on a fallacy. And, if you'll forgive me, a somewhat neurotic one at that.

The EU, with the UK as a powerful voice within it, was never going to become a 'scary super-state', as some leavers claim.

I also think this idea of 'taking back control' springs from a misguided, simplistic 'black and white' view of international affairs. It seems to appeal to people who do not understand that the international stage, both political and economic, like all areas of life, has always been about grey areas, balancing acts, compromises and continuous vigilance. You never 'arrive' at some perfect destination. You must always be working towards achieving your goals in a constantly evolving world. To which area of life does that approach not apply? To my mind the 'Leave' philosophy smacks of an inability to accept that reality.

Now I really wouldn't mind any of this if it wasn't for the long-lasting impact it will have on our national life. Because the world works in the manner stated above - not according to the ideas laid down in nineteenth century school text books - we will not be sailing off into some kind of glorious, self determined sunset. We will still need to be balancing those forces of international money and power. And the outcome? We will have to make some new and, in my view, unpalatable compromises.

This time we won't be a powerful member of the world's largest trading bloc. We'll no longer be part of an international group which promotes the values of the welfare state and public health provision for all. We'll find ourselves instead building that metaphorical 'Atlantic Bridge' which Liam Fox is so fond of. Getting much closer in social and political organisation to the United States.

I admire a lot about the USA. But my experience of the ups and downs of life has taught me that I'd never want to live in a country without adequate health and welfare provision, which is what the US is.

In essence we are sleep-walking towards the end of the post-war model of social democracy.

I don't think any true lover of their country - and the people who live in it - should be taking that course.

[red devil]

Keano, playing the patriotic card is low, even for you. Those opposed to Brexit care just as much if not more about the country and the direction it's going in, both on a social as well as economic level. To me that is true patriotism, not the flag waving, National Anthem singing, tub-thumping jingoistic tokenism you seem to aspire to.

The worrying thing about today's Brexit installment is that we have two Gov ministers from the same department with different views of what Brexit means. Even arch-Brexiteer Fox has had to accept the reality that there will likely have to be a transitional period whereby we are still in the EU with freedom of movement etc.

The Labour party are no better. At the weekend Corbyn said Brexit meant leaving the single market, period. Today we have Starmer and McDonnell saying they want to keep open the options of staying in the single market ans customs union.

Omnishambles...

[JoeLeg]

keano77 Wrote:

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Shame so many remainers seem to enjoy

> putting Britain down.

Don't do that mate - just don't do that. I thought we were past that...

[keano77]

Unbelievable. I suggest most of you go back and re-read your posts on this. Doom and gloom. Project Economic Disaster, Laughing Stock of Europe, the World etc.

Where's the positivity? The British people have given you a chance, seize it.

[JohnL]

So we've gone from hardest of hard Brexit talk and headlines like "Soft Brexit is just a euphemism for Remaining" to an almost certain soft Brexit and a 3 year transition period within a month of negotiations with the EU-27 starting.

At this rate we'll remain, give up any rebate we used to have and fly the EU flag at Westminster by 2019.

[Jenny1]

keano77 Wrote:

-

> Where's the positivity?

A positive outlook is indispensible in life. I quite agree. We'd none of us get anywhere without it. But if taken too far it can mean a blindness to reality. And that's dangerous.

[red devil]

Keano, you've missed your calling in life, have you ever considered putting that flowery positive prose of yours to better effect, perhaps flogging knick-knack-bric-a-brac-useless-tat? Just a thought...

[Jenny1]

JohnL Wrote:

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>

> At this rate we'll remain, give up any rebate we

> used to have and fly the EU flag at Westminster by

> 2019.

Yes. I'm really concerned that we've already effectively given away our previous position of strength within the EU.

This government is incapable of winning that back. The Labour leadership looks no more promising. I'm a Lib Dem supporter at the moment - I'm not sentimental about political parties - but I find them the most convincing right now. But what we really need is a complete shake up of our political system. I think the Tory party is effectively finished whatever happens with Brexit - though it could still remake itself as a new centre-right party. Labour needs to split. But it seems that the political class is currently suffering from collective paralysis. They may just limp on as they are indefinitely.

[keano77]

Shakes head. You can lead a horse to water but you can't make it drink ...

[Seabag]

red devil Wrote:

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> Keano, you've missed your calling in life, have

> you ever considered putting that flowery positive

> prose of yours to better effect, perhaps flogging

> knick-knack-bric-a-brac-useless-tat? Just a

> thought...

No that venture failed, it had to close.

Seems like flowery prose, no matter how hard you graft at it, just doesn't cut.

[JoeLeg]

keano77 Wrote:

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> Shakes head. You can lead a horse to water but you

> can't make it drink ...

Right back at you. I thought you were keen on reasonable debate; I do not believe that telling "Remainers" that they are always talking Britain down is helpful to that. You are free to disagree.

ETA - also, telling others "the British people" have said this or that, sounds a lot like you forget that we too are part of the British people. I'd be grateful if you'd stop pretending otherwise.