How do you measure uncertainty?

[Narnia]

Why would anyone want to measure uncertainty? Uncertainty is freedom. Without it everything would be certain. How boring would that be?

[garden man]

Very profound Narnia. For certainty or uncertainty only exist in the mind. You have a choice to embrace either, or be open to universal law,which is of course freedom.

[Huguenot]

Very pseudish. Certainty or uncertainty aren't mental constructs. Events like radioactive decay would be uncertain whether humans were here or not.

I've got no idea where you're going with 'universal law'. Have you levitated recently?

[Narnia]

How do you embrace something that hasn't yet happened and/or might never happen garden man?

[garden man]

It's that old chestnut, "If you think you can, you probably can" If you think you can't, then you probably can't"

[Huguenot]

Eh? What? When did a discussion of uncertainty become a proving ground for NLP?

garden man, are you rubsley in disguise?

[Lying Toad]

Since the Toad raised this question, it has been both scoped and probed by many.

Now, lets apply to live issues were there are pending / current cutbacks / changes:

* Council,

* Police,

* Royal Navy,

Which one are you uneasy with and how can you measure your uncertainty?

TLT

[Lying Toad]

The perigee will be upon us on Saturday 19th March.

Whats this? This is the closest passing point of the Moon to Earth, the last time this happened was 19 years ago.

There is uncertainty over the effects this will have, and the belief is that there will be a disturbance to the weather patterns and potentially worse! If it is thought to cause trouble on planet Earth, how can we measure such uncertainty?

I asked the scientist on Sunday (see starting thread) and she pointed out the key determinant, the tidal flow is determined by the moon. When the moon is above the sea, the sea is pull towards the moon and bulges up causing high tide.

What will be the net result be when the moon is over the sea covering active Tectonic Plates?

The Toad

[Huguenot]

The variation in lunar proximity is so small that the impact on gravitational forces affecting the sea will be marginally less than someone farting as they walk on the beach.

Since we don't feel this introduces sufficient uncertainty to enter our daily list of items to panic over, there seems no reason to add the perigee to them either.

[katie1997]

  Quote

What will be the net result be when the moon is over the sea covering active Tectonic Plates?

I wouldn't worry Toad, the tectonic plates are always active and they have been for around four thousand, six hundred million years (give or take a few hundred million years) :)

[Lying Toad]

Aaaaaah!

Toad will continue lying around the pond (think of Wham!), I feel rest assured now!

The question is...did the goldfish just breath out or....... was it more like a fart below the surface that was influenced by the Perigee?

The Toad

[Lying Toad]

We are alive!

Looks like Huguenot's principle is correct, the perigee was a just like a fart on a beach!

TLT

[Frankito]

Uncertainty by definition is intangible and thus never to be measured. It's also largely subjective which makes standardisation of measurement infinitely impossible. Move on people....

[BB100]

To measure uncertainty you would need to first define its meaning and then plot a continuum between absolutely certain and absolutely uncertain. Then the measure is the point of uncertainty indicated on the continuum at any given time.

[Lying Toad]

Toad speaks!

Which everway you look at it, there is uncertainty that we experience on a weekly or daily basis. In the car we consider enroute which way to work we should travel if we hear about traffic jams, or which tube line before we leave, and then back to the weather - will be cold,wet or sunny later?

So, what about policy!?

TLT

[gedwina]

Set up a Null amd Alternative hypothesis, measure certainty,run statistical test, turn into probability and subtract from 1.

[paphio]

"There are known unknowns, there are also unknowns that we will only know about... maybe later"