Can North Africa become the new South America?

[LadyDeliah]

Interesting times in Tunisia, Algeria and Egypt. Fingers crossed they follow the example of Chavez and release the oil money for the people instead of keeping it in the hands of their corrupt elites.

Discuss

[Huguenot]

You may be being slightly presumptive there LD, just because those countries sound Arabic doesn't mean they have oil, they don't have any significant reserves.

Chavez is a socialist revolutionary, there's no evidence of a particularly revolutionary socialist stance to popular protests in any of the north African countries.

Venezuela was the worst performing South American country last year (3.3% drop in GDP) and this year looks worse (-6%) which given their massive oil reserves is a catastrophe.

Despite his rhetoric, he often acts against the interest of the people. His wish to nationalize the last great privately owned company - Polar - is expressly against the wishes of the workers and their union. This suggests he is driven by dogma rather than the wishes of his countrymen.

His attacks on political opponents and the attempted creation of a personality cult based on himself suggests that he is likely to be no better than any other totalitarian state in recent history.

In other words the Chavez coterie is an elite by any other name.

Still, his predecessors were so bad that at least he's done something for the living standards of the state, let's hope that the current recession is just a blip, and that he's more than just a one trick pony.

[ImpetuousVrouw]

Algeria has loads of oil.

[Huguenot]

The OP was trying to draw a parallel between Venezuela and Tunisia, Algeria and Egypt on the basis of oil revenues. My point was that it wasn't comparable.

For example: recent estimates of reserves put Saudi at 230 billion barrels, Venezuela at 100 billion, and Algeria way down a shrinking list at 12 billion. Egypt has 2.9 billion and Tunisia 0.3 at doesn't even nudge the needle.

For comparison the UK has 25 billion, but you wouldn't suggest that it was a major local political issue.

Hardly comparable.

[MitchK]

I think the OP is a Marxist revolutionary or thinks she is and has read some rubbish in the Socialist worker extolling the virtues of Hugo Chavez. I very much doubt they have been to Venezuela or could find it on a map. Tunisia will probably become a US-friendly military dictatorship which is usually the best way of running these countries. Look at what happened to Pakistan after Musharraf got booted out.

[mockney piers]

After? Musharraf staged a coup. The army IS the state there, it doesnt need any US encouragement. The us closeness can probably be explained by all those modern planes and tanks pakistan's receiving. Not a great deal of use in a war on terror, but rather useful in a war with India, hence why Obama had to do so much fawning in his recent visit there[india].

They are interesting times in N. Africa (they're not Arabs btw and oil isn't really an issue as point out by H). Corruption and lack of freedom is, fingers crossed that Tunisia form something which returns political freedom to it's people, and it looks like there might be a velvet revolution in the offing there.

Egypt looks a more dangerous situation, there are more volatile strands there including Islamist movements (islamism was born there), tensions between the Coptic minority and Islamic majority and a government prepared to use repressive force.

Don't hold your breathe over Algeria. Political freedom and democracy was crushed by a coup and the army showed a particularly viciously cynicism, including a willingness to murder journalists, opposition and civilians alike during the brutal civil war there which has thankfully quietened down. I'm not sure if anyone is willing to look into that abyss again just yet.

"best way of running these countries" ha ha, you sound like a foreign office mandarin circa 1850, could you be any more patronising ;-)

[katie1997]

I think that oil is important to North Africa although I guess this is more about corruption and lack of freedom (as MP says).

I thought that in Lady Deliah's post, they were hoping that any revenue received from the oil (and gas!) industry would be put to good use by those in power rather than comparing with Venezuela in size of oil reserves? I could be wrong.

Interesting to know where those figures on oil reserves are from? (Assume these are proven and currently producing, not including potential or possible?)

Algeria has commercial gas production too, two large gas fields and they don't allow foreign-owned companies as much of a stake in their natural resources as before. There is interest in this region for exploration and development. You only need to look at the geology, not saying its the new Libya tho...

There are important mineral resources in these countries - useful for new and developing technologies.

Venezuela has gone massively down the hydroelectric route (and with shortages of water)

Mitchk - how do you know that LadyDeliah has never been to Venezuela?

[MitchK]

I don't, was just trying to engineer a response from her. Her opinions seemed to be garnered from left-wing student websites or possibly she is trying to start a decent debate...

Egypt could be next to throw off their evil oppressors by the looks of it. Will it lead to a liberal democracy based on equality for all (including women) or an anti-Western, anti-Israel Islamist state? Pretty obvious which one.

[katie1997]

MitchK Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> I don't, was just trying to engineer a response

> from her. Her opinions seemed to be garnered from

> left-wing student websites or possibly she is

> trying to start a decent debate...

I see. I'm sure the intention was to start a (decent)* debate?

resources = money = greater chance of corruption I guess.

I'm not sure what the outcome in Egypt, there seems to be disillusion with all sides

* (apologies for getting sidetracked on energy issues for the region)

[MitchK]

I doubt oil and energy are the main issue here. They do not necessarily lead to corruption either, with Canada and Norway being good examples of this.

These protests are against presidents and regimes that have been in place for many years and don't seem keen to surrender power. People, especially the younger generation, are getting fed up with it and the increase in the cost of living (especially food) is not helping either.

But always suspicious of someone who starts a debate with inflammatory language and then doesn't get involved again. Discuss.

[silverfox]

Meaningless question as far as I'm concerned.

North Africa includes several countries on a vast continent. South America is a vast continent encompassing several countries.

What is the thread about here? Where is the link?

[DJKillaQueen]

The other thing I am confused about is just when South America stopped being full of military juntas and dictators and starting prioritising the good of the people. Seems to me that south America has just as much a tumutuous history as anywhere in Africa.

[mockney piers]

Lucky us Europeans have a history totally free of internecine war, civil war, revolution, dictatorship, bloodshed, repression and general mayhem.

[LadyDeliah]

Sorry for the silence, I got kidnapped on a fact finding mission in Somalia and the pirates didn't think my 3 bed semi was worth the ?3/4 million ransom, so I had to wait for my folks to go to the bank. You know how it is, embarrassing having to ask the parents, but hey ho, needs must and all that.

Anyway, my original post was made after an interesting conversation with an Algerian friend of mine who fled the civil war about 18 years ago and was watching the developments in Tunisia with interest. He's hoping that Tunisia, Algeria and Egypt, who are all showing varying levels of resistance to the corrupt and greedy dictators running their countries, might have a change of regime, hopefully one that doesn't steal all their resources for themselves, but uses them for the betterment of society and to improve the lot of the poor.

He mentioned Venezuela and Bolivia as inspirations.

Hence my question.

And interesting idea if you don't mind me saying so. Pluralism and egalitarian principles in place of terror and dictatorship.

Who knows if they have a chance of creating anything better? It would be nice to think so, but not so sure socialist and muslim would be permissible to the world police.

[Huguenot]

Venezuela and Bolivia are inspirations for using natural resources "for the betterment of society and to improve the lot of the poor"??? Ha ha ha.

I think your Algerian friend is a poorly informed fantasist.

A wiser course of action would be to create a society that manages an uneasy truce between the workers that generate wealth and the hierarchy that is required to allow organised labour to function.

[jumpinjackflash]

mockney piers Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

>

> Egypt looks a more dangerous situation, there are

> more volatile strands there including Islamist

> movements (islamism was born there), tensions

> between the Coptic minority and Islamic majority

> and a government prepared to use repressive

> force.

>

Completely agree Mockney. My father is Egyptian and although he (and most of the country) detests Mubarak and his regime, he acknowledges that it could be dangerous if an 'extremist' Islamic movement became more powerful and Mubarak was removed. Egypt is considered one of the US's strongest allies in the Middle East. Very worrying times.

[LadyDeliah]

"A wiser course of action would be to create a society that manages an uneasy truce between the workers that generate wealth and the hierarchy that is required to allow organised labour to function."

That is a bit patronising. I beleive that people managed to work and organise themselves into trade associations without any bosses telling them when to eat, shit and sit down for many hundreds of years.

The weavers associations even used to have schools to teach people how to read and such, without anyone telling them to. Amazing isn't it?

[Huguenot]

Amazing? It's just nonsense.

History would be a good start.

[LadyDeliah]

Here is a recommendation for your reading list seeing as you like history although I doubt you'd read it. I'm sure you'd rather read a summary and slag it off instead.

http://www.amazon.co.uk/gp/aw/d.html/ref=redir_mdp_mobile/279-9798518-3072246?ref_=sr_1_1&s=books&qid=1262626644&a=0140136037&sr=1-1

Can't url it tho, sorry cos I'm on my phone.

[nashoi]

I agree Egypt is the one to watch, murderous kleptocrats could just be replaced by murderous theocrats. Hamas is apparently very popular amongst the working class youths on the backstreets of Cairo. If Mubarak is overthrown it has to be a worry that they, or anybody like them, get into power. It wouldn't exactly be the first time a popular rebellion has been co-opted by islamists. Egypt relies on tourism and US aid, the first speech mentioning Israel or nukes (strictly for civilian purposes you understand) and all that goes and the already very small economy disappears down the khazi faster than a sociopath's turds.

Bolivia seems a strange comparison. Morales changed the constitution to benefit indigenous people, but that's not a problem anywhere in the North African countries mentioned. Meanwhile the Bolivian economy is a basketcase and GDP per capita is lower than Tunisisa, Algeria and Egypt. Perhaps they should look slightly closer to home for inspiration on how to lift a country out of poverty. Botswana might be a good place to start. Steady economic growth since independence, which has seen GDP rise from about $70 per head to about $14500, achieved largely due to good governance (presidents actually leave when they're supposed to), respect for the rule of law, relatively low corruption and a liberal free economy, strangely no marxist revolutionaries though. I mean, who could have guessed, that might actually work.

[Huguenot]

"organise themselves into trade associations without any bosses telling them when to eat, shit and sit down for many hundreds of years".

It's a manifestation of childish online proselytising that people try and make a general point by resorting to hyperbole, fiction or fantasy. It's a shame that you're impressed by this approach LadyDelilah. If you find that patronising it's because you deserve it.

You're also guilty of interpreting my observations through the chip on your shoulder. I made no mention of 'bosses', I was simply referring to organisational hierarchy. Organised labour inevitably leads to bureaucracy, and the power that bureaucrats yield inevitably leads to the uneven application of reward.

Leninist propoganda about the lion hearted but gentle handed working class is a staple of student unions and sexual fantasies. Rose tinted reviews about the trade union movement can do nothing to dispel the socialist catastrophes of Russia and China.

For every halfwit manning the picket lines at Stockwell I give you Bob Crow, on 200k a year including basic, performance incentives and perks. Not exactly shabby for a self-proclaimed communist / socialist.

In fact that would probably make him wealthier than just about all the 'bosses' in LU that he's attacking....

[LadyDeliah]

But would you read E P Thompson? He is a very interesting historian who has researched the history of the working class, but he has been labelled a Marxist, not by me, so I would imagine that you would be equally dismissive of his work. His books are very interesting and well researched, so if you are interested in history and can get over his Marxist label, then you might enjoy them and even learn something in the process!

[Cassius]

Egypt/Mubarak was one of the main signatories of the peace accord with Isreal I believe. If the Muslim Brotherhood (say) get a foothold in Egypt there could be interesting (!) times ahead.

[mockney piers]

An interesting (if very personal) take on events in Egypt in one of the blogs I occasionally read

http://www.cnas.org/blogs/abumuqawama/2011/01/mubarak-and-me.html

[HAL9000]

European and US petroleum futures prices are sharply higher on fears that shipping through the Suez Canal might be disrupted. Just one ship grounded or scuttled in the canal would hit Europe in particular very hard, albeit for the short term.