8 June

[DulwichFox]

Teresa May has failed to get a majority and wasn't even elected in the first place.

She needs to resign.

DulwichFox

[rendelharris]

BrandNewGuy Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> DulwichFox Wrote:

> --------------------------------------------------

> -----

> > In a couple of hours time, Teresa May will go

> to

> > Buckingham Palace to seek permission

> > from The Queen to form a Government. Can The

> > Queen refuse her. Has that ever happened ?

> >

> > DulwichFox

>

> No and no. The only time there was a difficult

> decision to make was when Macmillan was ousted in

> 1963 in mid-term. The Queen (and her advisors)

> made it clear that she'd wait until a convincing

> leader emerged from the Tory infighting.

> Eventually Alec Douglas-Home told her that he

> could form a cabinet and gain the confidence of

> the Commons. If it had been left to the vote of

> Tory MPs from the moment Macmillan resigned, Rab

> Butler might well have won and become PM.

Don't know about that first "no" - technically the Queen has the right to do all sorts of things, including suspend Parliament and refuse assent to bills. In this case, she has the right to appoint the Prime Minister and there's nothing in statute to stop her offering the post to Corbyn if she wanted to. Of course in practice it'd probably be the end of the monarchy - the last monarch to try that level of interference was Charles I, and it didn't work out so well for him.

[Jenny1]

So how much influence will the DUP wield in this arrangement? Not too much I hope. Don't like their illiberal agenda.

[JoeLeg]

Well, the Tories can't govern without them, so I imagine they'll bring a shopping list. They've got influence and they know it.

They're a pretty nasty bunch. I find their attitude towards Corbyn/Sinn Fein pretty distasteful given that the DUP isn't exactly whiter than white when it comes to Loyalist terrorist groups. But that's Northern Ireland for you. (That's not to excuse Corbyn, btw)

[DulwichFox]

Jenny1 Wrote:

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> So how much influence will the DUP wield in this

> arrangement? Not too much I hope. Don't like their

> illiberal agenda.

It's like you going to Pub to buy a pint. The pint costs ?4.00 and you only have ?3.95 so a mate gives you 5p

Is he entitled to a sip. ?

Foxy

[Alan Medic]

A coalition of chaos maybe?

[Jenny1]

DulwichFox Wrote:

-----------------------------------------------------

>

> It's like you going to Pub to buy a pint. The pint

> costs ?4.00 and you only have ?3.95 so a mate

> gives you 5p

>

> Is he entitled to a sip. ?

>

> Foxy

Trouble is I think the DUP might be the kind of mate who says 'A miss is as good as a mile. Without that 5p you'd have no pint at all. I'm entitled to half.'

[Jenny1]

Alan Medic Wrote:

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> A coalition of chaos maybe?

That'll be it.

[Nigello]

I was surprised to see the SNP lose so many seats - and to a variety of opponents - and think it will mean a death knell to IndyRef2.

Also, 206 MPs are female this time - a record.

[rendelharris]

The DUP oppose LGBT rights, gay marriage and abortion, they're climate change deniers, recently implicated in a massive financial scandal and have historically had very close ties with loyalist paramilitaries and the far right. If May sits down to sup with them she'd better have a long spoon.

[rendelharris]

Jenny1 Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> DulwichFox Wrote:

> --------------------------------------------------

> ---

> >

> > It's like you going to Pub to buy a pint. The

> pint

> > costs ?4.00 and you only have ?3.95 so a mate

> > gives you 5p

> >

> > Is he entitled to a sip. ?

> >

> > Foxy

>

> Trouble is I think the DUP might be the kind of

> mate who says 'A miss is as good as a mile.

> Without that 5p you'd have no pint at all. I'm

> entitled to half.'

Nailed it!

[Jenny1]

JoeLeg Wrote:

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> I imagine they'll bring a shopping list.

Wonder what'll be on the list. Aside from assurances that Northern Ireland will have no 'special status' after Brexit. As rendelharris says, they're an illiberal bunch.

[uncleglen]

Theresa May declared her remain position very late compared with others. I think she hung around until the last minute because she wanted to stay in Government. She also stated to Andrew Marr that it was impossible to control immigration whilst we had free movement- and people endlessly criticised her for not keeping it under control. Although she declared Remain I believe it was to stay in the Cameron cabinet as she obviously was up against it as Home Secretary with the EU rules and regs.

The DUP are Brexiteers but will probably want a 'soft' Brexit so it looks promising to me

[jaywalker]

Now that I'm a little more sober (but what a night :-) ) I'm quite worried. The DUP will bring a very long and expensive shopping list and a minority government is basically a paralysed one. May will try to soldier on for 'stability' (my word, does she just not get it?). But her authority is completely gone and she will be the subject of concerted right-wing press moves to get her out. Tory MPs will presumably let her stay on until they are ready for a further GE and then ditch her. It is unimaginable that they would let her campaign as leader in the next election after this performance. Also remember that her politics are way out of line with the average Tory MP as she is way more social-interventionist than them.

On the EU I'm more optimistic. She is now in no position whatsoever to negotiate with the EU. She will have to make extraordinary compromises (another reason for the Tory MPs to keep her in place for a while so she can take the backlash from ukip sympathisers). She simply does not have the authority to say 'hard brexit then' when they demand their ?100bn or what have you. Even internally she is going to be unable to negotiate: first demand by DUP will be to maintain open border with Ireland, which means no immigration controls.

[Jenny1]

Very funny quote on twitter describing the DUP manifesto - 'Basically just The Bible, with fortnightly bin collections'.

[Lordship 516]

The DUP consist of ex-paramilitary members/sympathizers - Ulster Resistance & UVF

& consist mainly of right wing Free Presbyterian Church [biblical creationists] members who regarded

Rev Ian Paisley as being too liberal [they threw him out of the church he founded] and a traitor to

their cause for co-operating with Sinn F?in in the Good Friday Agreement.

These people are very dour & bitter people.

http://www.ianpaisley.org/main.asp

Hard on maintaining relationship with the rest of the United Kingdom at any cost

Climate change deniers butthey liked thr RHI money - very, very much.

Hard on Civil Rights

Hard on abortion

Hard on Gay marriage & LBGT rights - how they will get on with the new openly gay Taoiseach will be interesting

Against Gaelic being taught in NI schools despite being taught in Scotland & England & Welsh in Wales.

Socialist on Triple lock on pensions & on maintaining Universal benefits such as winter fuel payments

Wants a reduced VAT rate for tourism [similar to Ireland's]

Wants a special infrastructure fund for NI

Arlene Foster/Nigel Dodds have a confusing Pick'n'mix version of Brexit - possibly a 'flaccid' Brexit

Hard on immigration - racist & sexist overtones throughout their history even from Arlene Foster - described Michelle O'Neill [sinn F?in] as 'blonde'

Soft on the border with Ireland - want to act as a conduit for Irish exports to the UK [legalized smuggling - a NI passtime]

Their are fiercely dogmatic & inflexible - I wish Thearse well in trying to deal with them - they are implacable negotiators & will make her existance impossible.

[Jules-and-Boo]

Do you really think that we will face the world as a two-headed nonce unable to make a decision or have any leadership at all?

Do you think our politicians are actually that vile and self-centered that they will continue in that vein?

[Lordship 516]

Thearse will have no choice but to go for a soft Brexit & she will rely on cross-party support for that to neutralize the hard brexiteers in the Tory party who will be left spitting nails along with Farage blowing on the side.

the DUP will extract some major concessions [triple-lock & winter fuel payments, NHS & education] & some special infrastructure funding for NI

& will also try to re-negotiate elements of the NI assembly set-up but May would have problems in accommodating

them too much on that - too complicated to renegotiate the Good Friday Agreement - could end up as direct rule again - more hassle than it would be worth.

After a time the hard Brexiteers & main chancers - Johnson, Gove & others will make a move & try to shift her with another caretaker [a la John Major] being placed in position [Ken Clarke ?]. 2022 will be an interesting GE - Labour anyone..? They have the platform - all they need do is keep a cool head & avoid trouble - there will be lots of trouble for the government no matter what happens.

[jaywalker]

I'm guessing the size of the required NI infrastructure fund might be rather large. We are not talking just hundreds of millions I fear. And that is independent of May staying or going. I suppose it is just possible that someone like Clarke could negotiate a supply agreement with the Lib Dems instead, but it seems very unlikely.

Such is the madness of the first-past-the-post system. Five years of paralysis and economic instability from Brexit ahead. There is clearly a large majority of centrist MPs who could form a very good cross-party government and negotiate Brexit effectively - instead we will get this. Mind you, at least children will keep free school meals :-).

[Stephieee]

Let's not forget that due to the English Votes for English Laws legislation introduced in 2015, the DUP won't be able to vote on matters which wouldn't affect citizens in NI, the Scottish Tory MPs are next to useless for May (and Scotland for that matter).

[red devil]

I can't see this coalition lasting until 2022, they can't afford any dissenting voices, and there will be plenty on issues like the dementia tax*, removing the triple-lock etc. Her manifesto upset a lot of Tories with it's interventionism. May will eventually have to go, there won't be this 'stability' she's talking about. Don't be surprised if there's an October election.

*There was an interesting chart last night on TV in the early hours, it showed the constituencies that were most pro-Brexit in the Referendum, and how the over-65's voted. UKIP crashed and their votes were almost split equally to the Tories and Labour, everyone assumed in these areas they would automatically go to the Tories. The dementia tax must've been a big factor in this.

Ironic that the Tories and the rabid right-wing press went to town on Corbs links with hardline, terrorist linked Republicans, yet here we have the Tories about to climb into bed with the Unionist equivalent, something that Corb and SF wouldn't have done anyway, as SF made it a primary election pledge that they still wouldn't take up their seats in the House of Commons. They don't strike me as a party that would renege on such a fundamental pledge.

On the subject of the right-wing press, this result was a massive two fingers to them and the belief that they sway/win elections, that they can get away with systematic character assassinations. With the influence of social media growing by the day, that's not the case anymore, people can get their news/opinions from a variety of sources. Yes Corbyn has his faults, but nothing warranted the bile that was spewed at him and others. A victory for hope not hate...

[cella]

Just watched the news interview with TM. Quite scary as she looked disturbed throughout and sounded even more robotic. It was almost as though she hadn't realised that the election was anything to do with her and she was an innocent bystander. Said her main concern was her colleagues who had lost their seats "through no fault of their own and didn't deserve this". Quite spooky.

[Nigello]

Labour will not want to keep Corbyn for any much longer than he is necessary. I cannot believe the party will suddenly forget about its very apparent and much discussed internal division over whether to keep him or ditch him as a leader, though, in the short term, noone will pick a fight with him given the party's, er, "victory".

[hiit]

Her speech outside No. 10 was completely bizarre too. No acknowledgement of any of the mess, any degree of culpability. No sense of reacting to the changed mood of the nation. She goes into robot mode when delivering the lines, but when she's not speaking she looks like she's right on the edge....Half-dazed, half furious....until the crap about stability pops into her brain again...

Edited because I'm a wee bit tired and I keep missing out words...

[red devil]

Soundbite Alert!...In the national interest has replaced Strong and stable...