8 June

[jaywalker]

red devil Wrote:

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>

> *Runs to the nearest estate agent...*

Too late. House prices in London now in free-fall - when this starts no one has an incentive to buy and everyone to sell. I think they will fall about 40% in this downturn in this area. People have such short memories. Only thing that might put a break on it is a further collapse in sterling if May clings on and we go hard Brexit (foreign investors on the cheap pound buying up homes they then don't live in - so bad for people who are working here).

Since they will be historically over-valued even after a 40% fall this is probably a good thing.

[JohnL]

titch juicy Wrote:

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> I have absolutely no faith in any polls right now.

> There's such a wide range of possible outcomes.

>

> The seat predictions here haven't altered a huge

> amount. Still an increased Tory majority. How this

> can be so wildly different to the poll that showed

> the tories falling 16 seats short is a mystery to

> me!

>

> http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html

That's not the raw figures - it assumes young people will

vote at the level they did in 2015. YouGov are closer to

the raw figures - assuming more young people will vote.

A few things have changed though - young people being targeted

(grime4corbyn etc), Corbyn is supposed (as a campaigning left

winger) - to appeal to youngsters. He's promised to remove

tuition fees - that's a big one for them.

[jaywalker]

titch juicy Wrote:

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> I have absolutely no faith in any polls right now.

> There's such a wide range of possible outcomes.

>

> The seat predictions here haven't altered a huge

> amount. Still an increased Tory majority. How this

> can be so wildly different to the poll that showed

> the tories falling 16 seats short is a mystery to

> me!

>

> http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html

No, the point is that all the polls are rapidly converging. That is what is significant. The error margins are large because no-one knows whether the young ones will vote - but the signs are that Brexit really shook them up, so they will. Not many under 50s are reading the stupid Tory press (which in the Mail and Telegraph cases seem to be getting ever more desperate with their contemptible headlines - not surprising when you think what May has done to destabilise her own core at-dementia-risk and house-asset-rich vote).

Actually, amend that to read over 60 (at least on average) - see the very interesting demographics of newspaper readership at https://www.themediabriefing.com/article/youth-audiences-newspaper-old-demographics-advertising. I am struck by the fact that of that age-group only about 10% went on to higher education, with new voters it is over 50% - probably says quite a lot I think.

[titch juicy]

Haven't the Telegraph been fairly critical of May in recent days, or did I imagine that?

Also, do the polls allow for the silent Tory voters. That's historically a thing isn't it? Tory voters who won't admit to being so until marking the ballot paper?

[Louisa]

Neil Kinnock did a very interesting interview on the night of the last election, in which he concedes that the problem tends to be, the left are more loud and visible, and a strong undercurrent of people who want to vote Labour, walk into the ballot box grit their teeth and the cross next to the Tories. It's been that way for years. A lot of people, like to exhibit a social conscience publicly, but then think of their own personal circumstances on the inside and just go and vote Tory anyway. It's caught pollsters out way too often in the recent past. Kinnock should know better than anyone.

Louisa.

[Earl Aelfheah]

titch juicy Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> Haven't the Telegraph been fairly critical of May

> in recent days, or did I imagine that?

>

> Also, do the polls allow for the silent Tory

> voters. That's historically a thing isn't it? Tory

> voters who won't admit to being so until marking

> the ballot paper?

The Telgraph is a joke. take a look. It's basically a conservative campaign pamphlet.

[JohnL]

I notice the Standard has been putting a Labour headline on the early edition and a Tory one on the later edition

Probably George playing games.

[titch juicy]

rahrahrah Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> titch juicy Wrote:

> --------------------------------------------------

> -----

> > Haven't the Telegraph been fairly critical of

> May

> > in recent days, or did I imagine that?

> >

> > Also, do the polls allow for the silent Tory

> > voters. That's historically a thing isn't it?

> Tory

> > voters who won't admit to being so until

> marking

> > the ballot paper?

>

> The Telgraph is a joke. take a look. It's

> basically a conservative campaign pamphlet.

I know traditionally it is, but i've definitely seen pieces recently that made me look twice. But of course, now i want them I can't put my finger on them.

I expected them to be in full on attack mode, but I think they've been surprisingly a little benign.

I found this.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/05/31/theresa-may-social-media-roasts-prime-minister-not-turning-bbc/

[titch juicy]

JohnL Wrote:

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> I notice the Standard has been putting a Labour

> headline on the early edition and a Tory one on

> the later edition

>

> Probably George playing games.

He can't support Corbyn and he hates May for the cabinet snub. He's having a right laugh at the whole thing!

[Windrush]

Jenny1 Wrote:

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As Suzanne Moore wrote on Twitter - it's a

> mystery as to why TM wants to be PM - most of the

> time she looks like she's going to be sick.

She's got diabetes and needs 5 injections a day. I guess she doesn't have the physical or emotional stamina to take on the task of being PM. Ask John major about the b*st*rds. TM will be easy meat.

I reckon Blair was the only one in the last 20 years that had the full toolkit to do the job.

[Toffee]

lord hear my prayers. Please just keep all humanity safe and stop any war or conflict. Amen. X

[Suffer-not]

Windrush Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> Jenny1 Wrote:

> --------------------------------------------------

> -----

> As Suzanne Moore wrote on Twitter - it's a

> > mystery as to why TM wants to be PM - most of

> the

> > time she looks like she's going to be sick.

>

> She's got diabetes and needs 5 injections a day. I

> guess she doesn't have the physical or emotional

> stamina to take on the task of being PM. Ask John

> major about the b*st*rds. TM will be easy meat.

>

> I reckon Blair was the only one in the last 20

> years that had the full toolkit to do the job.

He certainly made Labour electable after the tenure of Foot and Kinnock. Plus he kept the party together for 13 - more than any other Labour leader.

[jaywalker]

The dislocation between newspapers (who seem to be writing whilst trapped in their own mirror reflection) and social media is very interesting.

Today it's the social media pringle-moment and the continuation of the hilarious 'where's Theresa' that is biting http://www.radiotimes.com/news/2017-06-02/could-jeremy-corbyn-eating-a-pringle-be-the-turning-point-in-the-election not the 'serious' discussion in the stupid press.

[JohnL]

Faisal Islam has just tweeted that the Mori/Ipsos poll that gave Tory 45 Labour 40 WAS adjusted for likely turnout (age).

The raw data was Labour 43 Tories 40

[jaywalker]

I get a sense that social media might result in a significant swing in turnout towards younger voters.

Weird watching the debate on TV tonight: she just says 'Brexit' to every question. So if you want Brexit you have to go with everything else she says? They will have regrets, poor dears.

[PollyGlot]

Talking about Blair,

Q1 = are all Blairites discredited?

Q2 = if David Milliband popped up tomorrow could he secure an overall majority for Labour?

[Earl Aelfheah]

Boris Johnsons behaviour gets more and more bizarre. He is a spoilt bully.

[One Who Does]

PollyGlot Wrote:

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> Talking about Blair,

>

> Q1 = are all Blairites discredited?

> Q2 = if David Milliband popped up tomorrow could

> he secure an overall majority for Labour?

YuKK! You have invoked the name of Satan and DM is Satan's spawn.

[Jenny1]

rahrahrah Wrote:

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> Boris Johnsons behaviour gets more and more

> bizarre. He is a spoilt bully.

Yes. He is.

[Louisa]

It's good to know Boris Johnson knows what a food bank is. Apparently being mayor of London gave him special insight into the matter. The BBC interview last night was utterly contemptible, bizarre goading of the Labour (?) politician, awkward silences and some sort of attempt at a face off whilst the BBC man seemed lost in how to respond.

If politics has come to this low level bargain basement stuff, I'm happy to not vote in this election.

Louisa.

[red devil]

I see the Maybot stuck to her robotic script last night about there being no magic money tree when a nurse queried about pay rises, yet there's a magic money tree when it comes to MP's salary increases and expenses. Now if only we had a magic money bus to give the NHS ?350m a week...

[Lordship 516]

red devil Wrote:

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> I see the Maybot stuck to her robotic script last

> night about there being no magic money tree when a

> nurse queried about pay rises, yet there's a magic

> money tree when it comes to MP's salary increases

> and expenses. Now if only we had a magic money bus

> to give the NHS ?350m a week...

Yup..! Plus there has been a magic money tree for the conservatives & the coalition that effectively stole from the nurses & other public servents & also borrowed hundreds of billions to distribute to their wealthy friends. The Money Tree is OURSSSSSSSSS & not for little people - shut up & do yer job..!

[malumbu]

If the magic money tree is the same as the Singing Ringing Tree I'd happily vote for that. East German culture at its finest. Not everything was bas in the old communist bloc.

http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0052199/

[JohnL]

rahrahrah Wrote:

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> Boris Johnsons behaviour gets more and more

> bizarre. He is a spoilt bully.

He's off again Look at his body language :)

http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/boris-johnson-blows-kisses-at-labours-ian-lavery-after-heated-debate-a3556036.html

Are they all drunk :)

[Earl Aelfheah]

I don't get how Boris is still in front bench politics.