"The Truth of the Lie" - the McCann case

[Sue]

reggie Wrote:

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> The scary thing about suspicion is that once that

> thought is established then all manner of evidence

> comes along to back up that suspicion. It was the

> same with the 'dingo got my baby' case. Also the

> Ozzie outback murder. Both cases had loads of

> strange unanswered questions which will never be

> properly explained. Both defendants were

> unappealing, cold women.

> Sue I think your anger at the parents is

> increasing your suspicion.

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I've read quite a lot about the case, and my suspicion is based on what I've read which is based on the police files.

ETA: If there was any evidence pointing towards an abduction, then that would alter things.

I hope I'm open minded enough to take into account anything which contradicts my current view.

Signing off now for the night .....

[DJKillaQueen]

I think for sure the case is complex, but only because there's no overwhelming evidence for any given scenario. And if Madeleine did not die from an accident in the apartment or at the hands of another and there is NO body then it is entirely plausible why two parents would want to pursue anything that gives any hope of their child being found alive - even if there is no evidence whatsoever for it (such as abduction).

I disagree that anything in the Police files points beyond doubt or even with overwhelming evidence at a cover up by the parents. Yes it's possible (theories always are), but no European court of law would prosecute on such 'theoretical' evidence. The investigator cites a case in America where a prosecution is being made on equally weak DNA evidence. Anyone who knows anything about the US judicial system will tell you that American jails have a higher than average number of innocent people convicted of muder and manslaughter, because of such weak evidence being admissable. It's not something we should encourage to be replicated in European courts.

People often do very odd things when grieving...any funeral director can tell you that....and I do think that, because the case involves a missing child, with no easy explanation, that the media reaction and conspiracy theories are typical. As someone pointed out above....we've seen it before.

IMO...any continuing investigation should focus on finding Madeleine (whether deceased or living) because only then will there possibly be enough answers to know what really happened. Until then....laying blame achieves nothing but to add to the misery of two parents, who may well turn out to be guilty only of leaving their child unsupervised for an hour, on that trajic evening.

[HAL9000]

The Hire Car was after all a hire car and explains why the DNA evidence taken from it was so low and contained multiple markers.

Both her parents and twin siblings share Maddy's DNA - that alone could explain those results.

The CODIS STR DNA data set contains some 200 common alleles across 13 markers (ignoring the Amelogenin sex marker) to represent the entire human population: every individual carries 26 of those alleles (i.e. 13 pairs).

AFAIK, it is not usually possible to assign a particular allele to a specific individual within a mixed specimen.

I have in the past looked carefully at this DNA evidence ? it is meaningless, in my opinion ? I say that as someone who has worked in the field and is familiar with the underlying science and technology.

Edited for clarity.

[taper]

Anyone got views on the Twin Towers attack or Diana's death? I just don't trust the MSM. Or large farmers.

[ImpetuousVrouw]

Was the door to the apartment unlocked? If so why di the alleged abductor take the child out of the window?

[louisiana]

Sue Wrote:

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> DJKillaQueen Wrote:

> --------------------------------------------------

> -----

>

>

> The DNA evidence isn't

> > conclusive.

>

>

> This is a technical issue, but I understand that

> most of the markers matched Madeleine's and that

> in some countries this would have been sufficient

> in law. However I cannot follow all the scientific

> discussions about it, duh.

>

This is NOT a technical issue, which suggests a technicality.

Last year, at the Royal Society, I heard Alec Jeffreys - the inventor of DNA fingerprinting - say in the strongest terms that he disagreed with low copy number methods and the way they are being used, owing to huge uncertainty about their accuracy because there's virtually nothing to test and similarities are hugely exaggerated, purely owing to the method (nothing to do with the actual evidence).

In 2008, when all this was playing out, LCN was in and out of favour in the UK itself, owing to scientific disagreement about whether it was worth anything at all.

In an article in Science (prestigious peer-reviewed publication), the authors of an article on the method themselves said their own DNA gathered on LCN principles would probably also qualify them as suspects, owing to the number of common markers. The trouble is, there are often common markers at this level, owing to both missing information (owing to count being very low and therefore material being missing) and contamination. So on both the plus and minus sides. And of course, in any family, there will be many common markers.

Furthermore, in this case, after the UK police said the DNA evidence gathered was 'inconclusive', the Portuguese police then said (untruth), of the same 'evidence', that there was some DNA evidence based on the UK report. In other words, the Portuguese police at the time completely misrepresented the UK forensic science service evidence report.

I can't say I'm surprised (southern Europe is really crap at forensic science, and they have very little experience using it or interpreting it, and have very few test centres, which is why it has to be sent elsewhere for testing), but I do object to people then pointing to such *misrepresentation* of the science as somehow having any meaning.

The basic failure in this case was of the Portuguese authorities to secure the site forensically. That kind of screws up everything that came after.

[DJKillaQueen]

Thank you Louisiana and HAL too for very informative posts.

[Sue]

ImpetuousVrouw Wrote:

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> Was the door to the apartment unlocked? If so why

> di the alleged abductor take the child out of the

> window?

xxxxxxx

Just one of the many questions around this case.

And why were the only fingerprints found on the window those of Kate McCann?

And why did the parents claim that the shutters had been forced open, when in fact they hadn't been?

[louisiana]

My apologies. The article I mentioned, discussing LCN DNA, was in Nature. A prestigious publication. Really worth reading. (my memory's sh*t)

http://www.nature.com/news/2010/100317/full/464347a.html

[louisiana]

After my house has been broken into, why are my fingerprints, and those of my painter and decorator, the only ones to be found?

Because anyone breaking into here is (one can assume) not a fool.

I've had someone break into my home that had 30+ breaking and entering tools in his (carefully designed) clothing. Found on arrest.

[Sue]

Statistically, the vast majority of child disappearances are linked to the parents.

A tiny percentage is due to abduction by a stranger.

[DJKillaQueen]

That may be so (in the majority of cases solved, it has to be added) just as the majority of murders of adults are by people known to them, and the majority of rapes are committed by perpetrators known to the victims. It's not a statistic remarkable to just the disappearance of children nor should it be used to present weight to theoretical scenarios when some crimes (albiet a minority) are at the hands of a stranger, and therefore present an equally possible scenario.

Abduction is absolutely possible if the abductor has a key (it's a holiday villa where any number of people during the year would have access to a key, and not difficult to have a copy made). Add to that the ease with which a drowsy child can be lifted and removed, then you would not expect to see any disruption of furniture and so on.

Discrepancies between witness statements are also not that unusual in cases, especially with regards to timescales. Cases where a group of witnesses are agreed on every point are often more likely to involve some kind of collusion.

And of course if the abduction theory is nonsense then it is equally possible that a stranger is involved or even just one parent. It's not impossible that one parent knows nothing whilst the other knows exactly what happened.

There are any number of ways to look at what happened that night.

[louisiana]

Statistically, a very large proportion of criminals are known to their victims, as DJKQ says. Children or no children.

But while stranger danger is generally overblown, statistically, most middle class parents don't kill their own children, on holiday or at any other time.

[Sue]

louisiana Wrote:

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most middle class parents don't

> kill their own children, on holiday or at any

> other time.

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I never suggested anybody had killed anybody.

I suggested there could have been an accident whilst a small child was left unattended.

And DJKQ, the apartment was left unlocked.

[DJKillaQueen]

The two patio doors, to the McCanns apartment at the back of the villa, in plain view of the Tapas Bar, were left unlocked. All other doors were locked.

[Chick]

This thread is sick and disturbing. This family have suffered a massive tragedy and you lot are just adding to it by speculating and making implied accusations. The title: ?The Truth of the Lie - the McCann case? is an accusation on its own.

To say that: ?I think it is sicker that two parents left three little children under four in a dark, unlocked, unfamiliar apartment in a foreign country while they went out on the piss with their friends. And not just once - night after night.? is beyond the pale. You weren?t there, can?t know exactly what happened and shouldn?t sit in judgment.

Every parent who has had to look after children have made mistakes which could have ended in disaster, I have and had it ended in disaster I would hate it for you lot to sit in judgment. And speculation would only add to the grief.

You should hang your heads in shame and stop this thread now.

[ImpetuousVrouw]

I think the point is that the McCanns courted publicity and funding for their cause. If they had been less public, or raised less money from so many members of the public, then maybe less people would feel they had a right to comment.

[Sue]

DJKillaQueen Wrote:

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> The two patio doors, to the McCanns apartment at

> the back of the villa, in plain view of the Tapas

> Bar, were left unlocked. All other doors were

> locked.

xxxxxxx

I understand that the McCanns originally said that doors were locked and that the shutters to the apartment had been forced from the outside.

When it was shown that in fact the shutters had been opened from the inside, they then said that entry was via an unlocked door and exit through the window (strange for someone to exit through a window rather than back the way they'd come!).

Apart from the lack of any stranger's fingerprints (and yes they could have worn gloves), apparently lichen on the windowsill in question was undisturbed, plus the size and position of the window was such that it would have been almost impossible for somebody to climb through it whilst carrying a child.

So far as the money raising is concerned, a large amount of money was apparently spent on private investigators who apparently had no expertise or even experience in searching for missing children.

[DJKillaQueen]

I agree with chick.....this thread is pointless speculation, based on circumstantial at best, evidence. It is NOT unusual for bereaved people to be confused in the immediate grip of bereavement. There is no body and have been no arrests. You need overwhelming evidence for that and there is none. There is nothing to be gained by raking over it here with the sole intent of implicating the parents.

[Curmudgeon]

Chick Wrote:

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> This thread is sick and disturbing. This family

> have suffered a massive tragedy and you lot are

> just adding to it by speculating and making

> implied accusations. The title: ?The Truth of the

> Lie - the McCann case? is an accusation on its

> own.

>

> To say that: ?I think it is sicker that two

> parents left three little children under four in a

> dark, unlocked, unfamiliar apartment in a foreign

> country while they went out on the piss with their

> friends. And not just once - night after night.?

> is beyond the pale. You weren?t there, can?t know

> exactly what happened and shouldn?t sit in

> judgment.

>

> Every parent who has had to look after children

> have made mistakes which could have ended in

> disaster, I have and had it ended in disaster I

> would hate it for you lot to sit in judgment. And

> speculation would only add to the grief.

>

> You should hang your heads in shame and stop this

> thread now.

Bravo!

Hear, hear

[Keef]

You weren?t there, can?t know exactly what happened and shouldn?t sit in judgment.

Whilst I agree with you in a way Chick, the above quotation does work both ways. And I'm sorry, but leaving 3 young kids on their own is wrong, I don't care where you are, you just don't do that.

[daizie]

I agree , it is just the weirdest thing to do

[taper]

Like MMR, 9/11 and Diana's death, the McCann case has become a magnet for conspiracy nuts and Daily Express readers. It has an added ingredient in that people can get terribly self-righteous about what the McCanns did (no doubt to their eternal regret).

[Tarot]

Shouldn't this thread be in the drawing room perhaps?

[Moos]

People long to have the McCanns found guilty for the simple reason that it would be a relief. Parents make horrible mistake and try to cover it up? No implication for me and my children. It's much more frightening and threatening to believe that there are monstrous abductors lurking out there.

I have never believed that the McCanns could have been responsible, simply because they had no opportunity to hide a body. Their every move was watched after they reported the little girl missing.