Happy Brexit Day

[Louisa]

I not for one second disagree with your sentiments above robbin. I do hope, for everyone's sake, that you are of course correct and the present situation does continue and that we see growth in the medium to long term as a result of this decision.

Some of the political minds and members of the upper circles, have for decades had vested interests in us remaining part of the EU club. That's surely undeniable? But equally, I believe some people have genuine reasons for enjoying the globalised and perhaps rose tinted view that the EU offers opportunities on our doorstep which far outway anything we could hope for beyond that. Perhaps, in some ways, that could be perceived as quite insular BUT I do genuinely believe those people were more intelligent and informed than that, and had a genuine low for the positives brought to us from membership of the EU... 'if it ain't broke, why fix it?'.

I am often perceived as perhaps being deliberately provocative on this forum, but I can assure you that I did freely vote for Brexit without fully understanding all of the bluster thrown at me during the referendum campaign. If I were offered the vote now, despite everything you say about the non-existent impending doom, I would have voted to remain. Not only because of the lies spouted, but also because it seems like an unnecessary upheaval- with the aim of achieving what exactly? Also thinking of the poor people who's lives have been turned upside down because of all the uncertainty. It just seems like a diversion off of the motorway, which leads us onto some A road heading in the same direction. What's the point?

Louisa.

[titch juicy]

robbin Wrote:

-

>

> I'm not saying it is all going to be roses, but so

> far so good (albeit we have not left yet -

> obviously I just mean in comparison to the

> ridiculous scaremongering scenarios predicted for

> this stage) "

I might be wrong, but I thought the "ridiculous scaremongering" was referring to when we leave rather than when we vote/trigger.

[titch juicy]

robbin Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> There's only one thing I am confident about, which

> is that those who constantly complain about the

> referendum result are not going to help matters

> moving forward and will only make themselves

> miserable. You are not getting another referendum

> - time to look back, recognise that you were

> bombarded with lies about looming disaster (just

> as you were with lies the other way about 350m for

> the NHS) and try to get some perspective. If you

> are still buying-in to the messages from those

> same people (the Osborne types) who have now been

> proved to have been completely wrong and/or lying,

> then you need to have a word with yourself because

> you are still being taken in.

>

> I'm not suggesting you strap on rose tinted

> goggles, but be very wary of the messages of doom

> coming from people who have been proved wrong (and

> not just a bit wrong) already. If, by the way you

> do still believe what that well known newspaper

> editor George Osborne (and his ilk) say about

> Brexit, then I have some swampland in Florida

> that's going for a really good price - the

> market's just about to take off - get in quick!"

No-one's been proved wrong. We haven't left yet, as you acknowledge.

[TheCat]

titch juicy Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

>

> I might be wrong, but I thought the "ridiculous

> scaremongering" was referring to when we leave

> rather than when we vote/trigger.

I think this is the type of 'ridiculous scaremongering' that Robbin is referring to....

"In a sign of the panic gripping the remain campaign, the chancellor plans to say that the hit to the economy will be so large that he will have little choice but to tear apart Conservative manifesto promises in an emergency budget delivered within weeks of an out vote"

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/14/osborne-predicts-30bn-hole-in-public-finance-if-uk-votes-to-leave-eu

[rendelharris]

Louisa Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

It just seems like a diversion off of

> the motorway, which leads us onto some A road

> heading in the same direction. What's the point?

>

> Louisa.

Nice simile Louisa, may have to pinch that one.

[Loz]

titch juicy Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> I might be wrong, but I thought the "ridiculous scaremongering" was referring to when we leave

> rather than when we vote/trigger.

True, though the collapse in the value of the pound was pretty immediate following the vote.

But bad stuff is happening already in the wake of the triggering of Article 50. Today, Lloyds announce 1 in 7 jobs are off to Brussels.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-39441035

[Otta]

red devil Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> After the tub-thumping of her Tory party

> conference and Lancaster Gate speeches, May's

> letter looked decidedly conciliatory by

> comparison. As a Remainer I'm not one who wishes

> the economy to go belly-up just so I can later say

> ''I told you so''. It's a difficult situation to

> be in, I don't want Brexit to be a success because

> one day I would want us to rejoin the EU, but

> equally I don't want the country to suffer

> economically. Personally I believe there will be

> hardship, but probably no worse than the credit

> crunch, and we'll therefore have to put up with

> many more years of 'austerity'. But for me it

> wasn't just about the economy, there's the social

> aspect too. How we're perceived as a nation to the

> rest of the world. I don't particularly want to

> live in a country that's doing ok economically if

> it means isolationism, inward thinking, and an

> increasingly xenophobic and jingoistic outlook,

> and that's how it's felt since the referendum.

> Then there's the long-term political outlook. The

> hard-right of the Tory party seized their chance

> and have taken a power-hold on their party. May

> has become a puppet, the acceptable face of

> Brexit. They are hell-bent on leaving the EU at

> any cost, even if it means Scotland leaving the

> Union. And if that happens their grip will get

> even tighter. Overnight a Tory majority goes from

> a smallish one to a very comfortable one. In a

> democracy, regardless of your politics, an

> effective opposition is a prerequisite, and we

> certainly haven't got that now despite the Gov's

> small majority, and it's likely to get worse

> unless Corbyn does the decent thing. Still, the

> sun will continue to come up...

This ^^^

[JohnL]

TheCat Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> titch juicy Wrote:

> --------------------------------------------------

> -----

>

> >

> > I might be wrong, but I thought the "ridiculous

> > scaremongering" was referring to when we leave

> > rather than when we vote/trigger.

>

> I think this is the type of 'ridiculous

> scaremongering' that Robbin is referring to....

>

> "In a sign of the panic gripping the remain

> campaign, the chancellor plans to say that the hit

> to the economy will be so large that he will have

> little choice but to tear apart Conservative

> manifesto promises in an emergency budget

> delivered within weeks of an out vote"

>

> https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/14/o

> sborne-predicts-30bn-hole-in-public-finance-if-uk-

> votes-to-leave-eu

That assumed Article 50 was to be triggered in June 2016.

Also So far the government have allowed the devaluation of the pound

to be a buffer against any issues (which Osborne would have done too),

but we really don't know where we're headed at the moment - it's like

the phoney war before the blitz hit.

[titch juicy]

Loz Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> titch juicy Wrote:

> --------------------------------------------------

> -----

> > I might be wrong, but I thought the "ridiculous

> scaremongering" was referring to when we leave

> > rather than when we vote/trigger.

>

> True, though the collapse in the value of the

> pound was pretty immediate following the vote.

>

> But bad stuff is happening already in the wake of

> the triggering of Article 50. Today, Lloyds

> announce 1 in 7 jobs are off to Brussels.

>

> http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-39441035

and Goldmans, UBS and HSBC too

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/goldman-sachs-brexit-bank-jobs-move-out-london-city-eu-deals-european-union-negotiations-a7641876.html

http://uk.reuters.com/article/us-davos-meeting-hsbc-idUKKBN1520SO

[KidKruger]

I working in banking and have lost 2 jobs since the referendum, ostensibly because of the Leave vote.

It's happening and the effects will I guess hit the rest of the country after some time.

[jaywalker]

We are leaving, at great cost.

Yet we will still

be subject to the ECJ (to get any kind of a trade deal)

take in several hundred thousand migrant workers each year (not to do so would close the NHS and care homes immediately, not to mention most of the businesses in London).

And this in a general climate of increasing protectionism in which all trade opportunities that remain open will be incredibly precious.

Do the Brexiters actually think they will get what they want? If the negotiations collapse then May will be out - the Repeal Acts will be defeated in both Lords and Commons.

Update on BBC News tonight. Independence from ECJ promised by Davies. Well, then we cannot have a trade deal. If we have a trade deal it must be actionable in the courts with those countries we have the deal. In the EU this means the ECJ. So, the government are not planning a trade deal? Or anything much at all, actually?

[TheCat]

jaywalker Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> We are leaving, at great cost.

>

> Yet we will still

>

> be subject to the ECJ (to get any kind of a trade

> deal)

>

> take in several hundred thousand migrant workers

> each year (not to do so would close the NHS and

> care homes immediately, not to mention most of the

> businesses in London).

>

> And this in a general climate of increasing

> protectionism in which all trade opportunities

> that remain open will be incredibly precious.

>

> Do the Brexiters actually think they will get what

> they want? If the negotiations collapse then May

> will be out - the Repeal Acts will be defeated in

> both Lords and Commons.

>

> Update on BBC News tonight. Independence from ECJ

> promised by Davies. Well, then we cannot have a

> trade deal. If we have a trade deal it must be

> actionable in the courts with those countries we

> have the deal. In the EU this means the ECJ. So,

> the government are not planning a trade deal? Or

> anything much at all, actually?

Sorry, I don't understand the basis for your comment. Perhaps i've missed something, in which case I'm all ears...but countries like Mexico, morroco, south Korea and south Africa all have free trade agreements with the EU, and none of them are within the jurisdiction of the ECJ.....

[uncleglen]

Lloyds of London (NOT to be confused with Lloyds bank)is a bunch of insurance brokers sitting in a building in the square mile- where they work from does not matter. All that matters is that the 'names' underwrite the risks. The building is horrible and started the trend of vile architecture dominating the London skyline

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lloyd%27s_of_London

[red devil]

jaywalker Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> take in several hundred thousand migrant workers

> each year (not to do so would close the NHS and

> care homes immediately, not to mention most of the

> businesses in London).

Not so fast, robbin of Brexitwood hath spoken:

...but there's also major benefits - a substantial increase in tourism, hotels sold out, restaurants busy, local businesses in London busier...

We're gonna need a lot more of those pesky immigrants!...

[rendelharris]

uncleglen Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> Lloyds of London (NOT to be confused with Lloyds

> bank)is a bunch of insurance brokers sitting in a

> building in the square mile- where they work from

> does not matter. All that matters is that the

> 'names' underwrite the risks. The building is

> horrible and started the trend of vile

> architecture dominating the London skyline

> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lloyd%27s_of_London

I don't suppose anybody did confuse them with Lloyds Bank, do you? However, to say that from where the brokers do their work doesn't matter is nonsense: the average broker salary at Lloyds is around ?150,000, so for every one they send abroad that's around a ?60,000 loss to the UK exchequer. OK, they're only planning to send around a hundred to Brussels at present, so that's "only" ?6M in lost tax/NI revenue, but if that's replicated across the city we're talking many billions lost in direct revenue, plus their purchasing power. It matters rather a lot, the UK economy is heavily shored up by London's position as one of the world's most important financial hubs, when they go elsewhere we all lose out.

[Loz]

rendelharris Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> uncleglen Wrote:

> --------------------------------------------------

> -----

> > Lloyds of London (NOT to be confused with Lloyds

> > bank)is a bunch of insurance brokers sitting in a

> > building in the square mile- where they work from

> > does not matter. All that matters is that the

> > 'names' underwrite the risks. The building is

> > horrible and started the trend of vile

> > architecture dominating the London skyline

> >

> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lloyd%27s_of_London

>

> I don't suppose anybody did confuse them with

> Lloyds Bank, do you? However, to say that from

> where the brokers do their work doesn't matter is

> nonsense: the average broker salary at Lloyds is

> around ?150,000, so for every one they send abroad

> that's around a ?60,000 loss to the UK exchequer.

> OK, they're only planning to send around a hundred

> to Brussels at present, so that's "only" ?6M in

> lost tax/NI revenue, but if that's replicated

> across the city we're talking many billions lost

> in direct revenue, plus their purchasing power. It

> matters rather a lot, the UK economy is heavily

> shored up by London's position as one of the

> world's most important financial hubs, when they

> go elsewhere we all lose out.

Not to mention a *lot* of jobs lost. Both directly and indirectly.

[JohnL]

Well Theresa May's fans calling out a win now after Donald Tusk does concede a little

- Some parallel talks

- He acknowledges the security misunderstanding (it wasn't it was a huge mistake and TMs been let off)

Whats happening is the EU is taking the lead on setting the agenda here. Have they not heard of conceding minor points to win the big ones :)

[Loz]

JohnL Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> Whats happening is the EU is taking the lead on setting the agenda here. Have they not heard of

> conceding minor points to win the big ones :)

And, after a week of dithering by May, the EU is today taking the lead on establishing the rights of EU citizens in the UK and UK citizens in the EU.

[Mr Django Wisteria]

Bollocks to this

let's all be Bwitish and miserable and exclude "johnny foreigner"

I refuse to call myself "British" now after this debacle

We should be ashamed of our so called maturer citizens who voted overwhelmingly to leave

What is there to be "happy" about !

It's a power grab by the Tories combined with a complete attack on our civil liberties.

[JohnL]

Mr Django Wisteria Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> Bollocks to this

>

> let's all be Bwitish and miserable and exclude

> "johnny foreigner"

>

> I refuse to call myself "British" now after this

> debacle

>

> We should be ashamed of our so called maturer

> citizens who voted overwhelmingly to leave

>

> What is there to be "happy" about !

>

> It's a power grab by the Tories combined with a

> complete attack on our civil liberties.

I voted remain and am a child of the 60s.

What I discovered though (due to this) - The baby boomer

generation is considered to have ended in 1964 which means

I'm Generation X (just) :)

[JohnL]

Mr Django Wisteria Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> It's a power grab by the Tories combined with a

> complete attack on our civil liberties.

And when they said all EU laws would be translated

to UK law then parliament would debate any changes

OK the Charter of Fundamental rights maybe a load

of BS - but we agreed on how this was to be done and

now the precedent has been set.

"While the Bill will provide for around 19,000 pieces

of EU legislation to be brought onto Britain?s statute

books, the Charter of Fundamental Rights will not be one

of them."

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/03/30/uk-takes-back-right-deport-britain-repeals-powers-eu/

[Louisa]

It's not just about age, though that did play a part.

It was;

Urban vs Rural

North vs South

Poor vs Wealthy

This whole thing was basically brought about by a London centric government ignoring English regions, where poverty reigned and no one in power bothered to do anything about it. A modern day peasants revolt ultimately, but obviously more complex than JUST that.

Louisa.

[titch juicy]

Hendersons now talking about moving their HQ from London to Luxembourg. I also read that Lloyds expects other insurers to follow.

[JohnL]

Someone reads through the whole EU document

?After the United Kingdom leaves the Union, no agreement between the EU and the UK may apply to the territory of Gibraltar without the agreement between the kingdom of Spain and the UK.?

And the papers scream !!!

[????]

Loz Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> rendelharris Wrote:

> --------------------------------------------------

> -----

> > uncleglen Wrote:

> >

> --------------------------------------------------

>

> > -----

> > > Lloyds of London (NOT to be confused with

> Lloyds

> > > bank)is a bunch of insurance brokers sitting

> in a

> > > building in the square mile- where they work

> from

> > > does not matter. All that matters is that the

> > > 'names' underwrite the risks. The building

> is

> > > horrible and started the trend of vile

> > > architecture dominating the London skyline

> > >

> >

> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lloyd%27s_of_London

> >

> > I don't suppose anybody did confuse them with

> > Lloyds Bank, do you? However, to say that from

> > where the brokers do their work doesn't matter

> is

> > nonsense: the average broker salary at Lloyds

> is

> > around ?150,000, so for every one they send

> abroad

> > that's around a ?60,000 loss to the UK

> exchequer.

> > OK, they're only planning to send around a

> hundred

> > to Brussels at present, so that's "only" ?6M in

> > lost tax/NI revenue, but if that's replicated

> > across the city we're talking many billions

> lost

> > in direct revenue, plus their purchasing power.

> It

> > matters rather a lot, the UK economy is heavily

> > shored up by London's position as one of the

> > world's most important financial hubs, when

> they

> > go elsewhere we all lose out.

>

> Not to mention a *lot* of jobs lost. Both

> directly and indirectly.

I'm not being argumentative here but people have to think a bit wider..this isn't a non-moving vacuum so here's some random thoughts

- we will lose some high end jobs, but not as many as the acoplytic forecasts predict but

-numerous EU companies have pass-porting rights into the UK for finance if these go too (as they will if ours do) that creates opportunities and jobs here by EU companies having to set up here to access capital/have UK customers etc

- if we come to no finance deal with the EU that creates opportunities in some reduced restriction/regulation which makes the UK a more attractive place for some financial companies, hedge funds and other forms of finance/investment etc

- taking SOME of the froth off our over reliance on Finance and the City isn't a bad thing in the medium term (rebalance, house prices etc)

- the huge amount of capital controlled, assetss managed & held here will look wider than europe for investment opportunities (it does already of course but this will be accelerated)and growth elsewhere is looking far healthier

- there's a lot of bright and motivated people in London, we'll lose some but some will look and find opportunities not yet realized, we have far more flexibility, rules, ease of start ups, and access to finance for entrepreneurship than our big EU rivals -especially France and Germany -skill shortages is the potential issue here so that does need addressing.

The general tone among the worried is that UK based business/finance/entreprneurship/capital will just sit here doing nothing whilst EU rivals chip away at it. Clever people are doing stuff now not waiting on dullard politicians.

Finally, as I said before, nice to see finance, bankers, hedgefunders etc suddenly loved and adored by the Guardian and other lefties after 10 yesr of "feck em, stick them all in jail" lunatic rhetoric.