???? Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 Of course the answer's Nuclear Sean but you also identify the problem it's a hands in the ears shreaks of "Chernobyl, Cherniobyl" response...no proper debate...... ever. Still when we re realise we really are running out of options it will come. Link to comment https://www.eastdulwichforum.co.uk/topic/14345-peak-oil-the-coming-catastrophe/page/2/#findComment-384347 Share on other sites More sharing options...
HAL9000 Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 I think it is worth posting the following paragraph from the above-mentioned article in The Oil Drum. I'm unlikely to experience the worst of this but younger members of this forum - and their children - will be alive during the worst of the post-Peak Oil decline in global population levels. The survivors (one in six) will be those who are fully prepared in advance, in my view. The Cost... Based on this model we would experience an average excess death rate of 100 million per year every year for the next 75 years to achieve our target population of one billion by 2082. The peak excess death rate would happen in about 20 years, and would be about 200 million that year. ...-- The Oil Drum: Peak Oil, Carrying Capacity and Overshoot: Population, the Elephant in the Room - Revisited Link to comment https://www.eastdulwichforum.co.uk/topic/14345-peak-oil-the-coming-catastrophe/page/2/#findComment-384365 Share on other sites More sharing options...
Loz Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 wjfox Wrote:-------------------------------------------------------> Townleygreen Wrote:> --------------------------------------------------> -----> > I've been worried about this for years.> > > > The Oil Drum website is very scary in places.> > > > > Indeed...> > http://www.theoildrum.com/node/6924> > Long article, but well worth reading.A great argument for cutting Child Benefit??!! Link to comment https://www.eastdulwichforum.co.uk/topic/14345-peak-oil-the-coming-catastrophe/page/2/#findComment-384366 Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jeremy Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 one in six survivors... what movies have you been watching, Hal?! Link to comment https://www.eastdulwichforum.co.uk/topic/14345-peak-oil-the-coming-catastrophe/page/2/#findComment-384392 Share on other sites More sharing options...
david_carnell Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 The survivors (one in six) will be those who are fully prepared in advance, in my view. What, exactly, should I be doing to be fully prepared. I'm not being flippant either....if I buy into this "end of days" stuff what sort of things will see me through it? Link to comment https://www.eastdulwichforum.co.uk/topic/14345-peak-oil-the-coming-catastrophe/page/2/#findComment-384410 Share on other sites More sharing options...
???? Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 Brogues Link to comment https://www.eastdulwichforum.co.uk/topic/14345-peak-oil-the-coming-catastrophe/page/2/#findComment-384412 Share on other sites More sharing options...
david_carnell Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 I'm set to go then! Link to comment https://www.eastdulwichforum.co.uk/topic/14345-peak-oil-the-coming-catastrophe/page/2/#findComment-384417 Share on other sites More sharing options...
wjfox Posted November 19, 2010 Author Share Posted November 19, 2010 david_carnell Wrote:-------------------------------------------------------> The survivors (one in six) will be those who are> fully prepared in advance, in my view. > > What, exactly, should I be doing to be fully> prepared.Move to the countryside. Buy a house with solar panels and good insulation. Grow your own food, stock up on seeds, etc. Link to comment https://www.eastdulwichforum.co.uk/topic/14345-peak-oil-the-coming-catastrophe/page/2/#findComment-384453 Share on other sites More sharing options...
Loz Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 wjfox Wrote:-------------------------------------------------------> david_carnell Wrote:> --------------------------------------------------> -----> > The survivors (one in six) will be those who> are> > fully prepared in advance, in my view. > > > > What, exactly, should I be doing to be fully> > prepared.> > Move to the countryside. Buy a house with solar> panels and good insulation. Grow your own food,> stock up on seeds, etc.The get murdered by the have nots for your food. Link to comment https://www.eastdulwichforum.co.uk/topic/14345-peak-oil-the-coming-catastrophe/page/2/#findComment-384463 Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jeremy Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 Not if you've constructed an adequately fortified security perimiter... and of course, taken the appropriate measures to prevent detection. Link to comment https://www.eastdulwichforum.co.uk/topic/14345-peak-oil-the-coming-catastrophe/page/2/#findComment-384482 Share on other sites More sharing options...
HAL9000 Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 It's a plausible scenario - the problem is no one knows how it will unfold: whether it will be gradual and controlled or swift and chaotic. My guess is something like the domino effect. It'll start within the most vulnerable countries and spread across regions and continents until all but a few enclaves of law and order remain - that's where most of the survivors will be.Each swift episode of chaos will be followed by a period of calm until a self-sustaining equilibrium is achieved.Those who can guarantee their own survival (i.e. those in positions of power at the relevant time) will face an interesting dilemma: do they expend precious resources on saving the masses or do they let them go under quickly in order to provide their own descendants with the best survival prospects? After all, the survivors will literally inherit the earth.Of late, I?ve been wondering whether the western banks have already discounted the effect Peak Oil will have on future property prices ? hence their reluctance to lend on real estate in general? Link to comment https://www.eastdulwichforum.co.uk/topic/14345-peak-oil-the-coming-catastrophe/page/2/#findComment-384488 Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jeremy Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 > I?ve been wondering whether the western> banks have already discounted the effect Peak Oil> will have on future property prices ? hence their> reluctance to lend on real estate in general?Why the correlation between oil and property, instead of other assets?Anyway, as far as I know, no bank is yet running stress tests on apocalyptic end-of-civilization scenarios. Link to comment https://www.eastdulwichforum.co.uk/topic/14345-peak-oil-the-coming-catastrophe/page/2/#findComment-384502 Share on other sites More sharing options...
???? Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 Western banks are pushed to think much beyond their next quarterly results, today's share price and their next bonus if you think the Boradroom's of the big western banks are building peak oil into their strategies (which are soooo short term) you live in CC land. Link to comment https://www.eastdulwichforum.co.uk/topic/14345-peak-oil-the-coming-catastrophe/page/2/#findComment-384505 Share on other sites More sharing options...
HAL9000 Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 Mortgages are long-term investments - the maturity dates of new mortgages fall in or around the projected Peak Crunch in population levels - coincidence or what?Whatever one thinks about banks, the quants who design and value mortgage-backed securities have to make assumptions and forward-looking projections through to the maturity dates.If they even suspected that UK house prices might be closer to 1950s than 2010 levels in 25-30 years time - well, do I need to draw a picture? Link to comment https://www.eastdulwichforum.co.uk/topic/14345-peak-oil-the-coming-catastrophe/page/2/#findComment-384520 Share on other sites More sharing options...
???? Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 Board members of banks will be nowhere near them by peak oil. They couldn't give a flying. Their goals are entirely short term and driven by THEIR performance and the banks share price and performance at the next quarterly results. They give not a hoot about even 5 years away, they're not that keen on mortgages becuase they think that the housing market is still inflated and may burst anytime soon nothing to do with some future armageddon. But you conspire on. Link to comment https://www.eastdulwichforum.co.uk/topic/14345-peak-oil-the-coming-catastrophe/page/2/#findComment-384524 Share on other sites More sharing options...
HAL9000 Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 Jeremy Wrote:-------------------------------------------------------> Why the correlation between oil and property,> instead of other assets?How many other assets are purchased with a 30-year loan secured on future value? Link to comment https://www.eastdulwichforum.co.uk/topic/14345-peak-oil-the-coming-catastrophe/page/2/#findComment-384555 Share on other sites More sharing options...
mockney piers Posted November 20, 2010 Share Posted November 20, 2010 You're all getting silly now.For a sensible idea of what we face you need to read Max Brooks' World War Zhttp://books.google.co.uk/books?id=5MBCDlb9jDkC&dq=world+war+z&source=bl&ots=egKODe3Svu&sig=88lKMJLQRW2shAwVHjzhQJ3FqPo&hl=en&ei=cHvnTOLaAYeqhAe51onwDA&sa=X&oi=book_result&ct=result&resnum=10&ved=0CEQQ6AEwCQ Link to comment https://www.eastdulwichforum.co.uk/topic/14345-peak-oil-the-coming-catastrophe/page/2/#findComment-384631 Share on other sites More sharing options...
HAL9000 Posted November 20, 2010 Share Posted November 20, 2010 ???? Wrote:-------------------------------------------------------But you conspire on.It's still early days - once I've added the relevant Biblical prophecies and links to the Knights Templar, the Holy Grail and Crop Circles you will be convinced - I'm sure. Link to comment https://www.eastdulwichforum.co.uk/topic/14345-peak-oil-the-coming-catastrophe/page/2/#findComment-384639 Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brendan Posted November 20, 2010 Share Posted November 20, 2010 david_carnell Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > The survivors (one in six) will be those who are > fully prepared in advance, in my view. > > What, exactly, should I be doing to be fully > prepared. GunsLots of guns. Link to comment https://www.eastdulwichforum.co.uk/topic/14345-peak-oil-the-coming-catastrophe/page/2/#findComment-384653 Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huguenot Posted November 20, 2010 Share Posted November 20, 2010 BunsLots of buns.It's not actually true to say that the UK isn't self-sufficient in food. It depends what food group you're talking about, and how easy or difficult it is to rectify the situation:http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/media/images/46174000/gif/_46174429_food_security_446gr.gifThe only situation that might be slightly unnerving is fresh vegetables - but it's easy to rectify. There's plenty of available farmland. Currently the EU pays farmers not to farm. Potatoes and meat are nothing to worry about.The fruit thing's a shame, but no reason to panic - there's quite enough of our nutritional requirements in more 'British' foods. Fruit's a bit of a luxury.So from a food perspective the transport oil thing wouldn't necessarily be a crisis, just a change of style.Cooking it might be a different matter.If you'd like a detailed breakdown of UK food security you can find it here. Link to comment https://www.eastdulwichforum.co.uk/topic/14345-peak-oil-the-coming-catastrophe/page/2/#findComment-384663 Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brendan Posted November 20, 2010 Share Posted November 20, 2010 Arse to that. 'British' foods blow goats*. Guns, lots of guns would secure you passage to Africa where the employment of guns, lots of guns, would sort you out a piece land with its own water source. Granted, I've stolen this idea from somewhere but it is preferable to cabbage. *Pies and beer excepted Link to comment https://www.eastdulwichforum.co.uk/topic/14345-peak-oil-the-coming-catastrophe/page/2/#findComment-384677 Share on other sites More sharing options...
HAL9000 Posted November 20, 2010 Share Posted November 20, 2010 Does that level of food security come with or without oil-based mechanised agriculture, processing and distribution, fertiliser and pesticide production and the heating of greenhouses, battery farms and over-wintering sheds? Link to comment https://www.eastdulwichforum.co.uk/topic/14345-peak-oil-the-coming-catastrophe/page/2/#findComment-384693 Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huguenot Posted November 20, 2010 Share Posted November 20, 2010 You'd have to ask that of them wot rote it.I deliberately didn't talk about the overall picture, as I'm sure it's more complex, but the debate was about peak oil, not about the end of energy. Hence the assumption is that many aspects of mechanization can still go ahead as usual - including heating greenhouses and sheds, and running conveyor belts. Distribution could still take place over electrified rail systems etc.The ones that aren't much good without oil are things like refrigerated overseas distribution. Link to comment https://www.eastdulwichforum.co.uk/topic/14345-peak-oil-the-coming-catastrophe/page/2/#findComment-384722 Share on other sites More sharing options...
Peckhamgatecrasher Posted November 20, 2010 Share Posted November 20, 2010 Heinz tomato soup and scotch. Or is it 42? Link to comment https://www.eastdulwichforum.co.uk/topic/14345-peak-oil-the-coming-catastrophe/page/2/#findComment-384755 Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jeremy Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 HAL9000 Wrote:-------------------------------------------------------> How many other assets are purchased with a 30-year loan secured on future value?In reality most mortgages are settled long before the maturity. And the risk of default (and the downside exposure) drops off sharply long before then, anyway. Also, you need to understand that yield curves and credit spreads are deduced mathematically from the market. The black-ops think-tank you are envisaging - brainstorming about the state of the world in 2040 and adjusting projections accordingly - just doesn't exist. Link to comment https://www.eastdulwichforum.co.uk/topic/14345-peak-oil-the-coming-catastrophe/page/2/#findComment-385019 Share on other sites More sharing options...
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