Can the East Dulwich micro economy survive a recession?

[mockney piers]

tiresomethreadsbumpedageddon

[Alan Dale]

whenthenumber40buscomespastageddon

[macroban]

One year on from when this thread was started, East Dulwich still seems to be pretty resilient.

[ibilly99]

We are entering the most profound economic downturn since 1929 - it must be obvious to all but the delusionally over-invested what will happen next.

[????]

I think the situation in East Dulwich is trivial and irrellevant...the whole country is fucked for 10 years plus

[*Bob*]

Chin up, everyone...

If we all go down LL tomorrow en masse and buy one cow-print cushion and one highly-quality non-stick saucepan, we can spend our way out of recession. We can do it. You've just gotta believe.

[SeanMacGabhann]

Thank you Parappa the Rapper

(with apologies to everyone, including *Bob*, who doesn't get that reference)

[macroban]

The serious point [i'm not sure that the EDF does "serious"] is that the pain of previous recessions has not had an evenly distributed geographical spread and whether the local East Dulwich economy has some special features which will enable East Dulwich to survive a recession better than other areas.

[SeanMacGabhann]

If the country is as banjaxed as quids thinks it is I don't see any reason why ED would be less affected than others.

But I grew up in a country that was permanently (and genuinely, seriously, majorly) f***** economy wise and I was in Wiltshire during the 80s recession and Devon in the 90s recession. Both of those may come to be seen as minor compared to the next but if we manage to avert the worst of the crisis it won't be because of any Cassandras.

Life DOES go on, even in the worst of recessions. Easy to say now, less so if times get pitifully hard, but no less true for all that.

I have my candles, my books and my still all good to go

[wee quinnie]

Just read Sean's message there, and was thinking "Candles? " - ?? thinking he was talking about all the fancy knick knack shops down LL closing down. OOPS!

[wee quinnie]

Just read Bob's message. Maybe SMG did mean that. OOPS.

[SeanMacGabhann]

obviously teh still is more important than the candles WQ ;-)

[????]

The house of cards that has underpinned the UK economy for 20 plus years, Financial Services (15% of UK GDP) and especially the very high value add bit eg Investment banking - and clever associated investment vehicles - has, in case anyone hasn't noticed, been exposed as a long running pyramid selling schemes on a global basis. London's position as the global finance centre is now outdated and f*cked and the associated jiggery pokery (auditing/legal/venture capitalism)which underpins much of London's wealth and income is also f*cked...and yet East Dulwich is somehow in a unique position to escape the carnage that will be the next 2 years and the slow overall recovery of our economy hopefully into new areas of enterprise that will be the next 10? Pray how? We are mostly in for a decline in real incomes, massive falls in asset values (houses, pensions, endowments)that's going to last a fair old bit....this isn't a recession it's a fundamental shift......hey, maybe we'll be better people for it...

[AcedOut]

What ???? said.

[Huguenot]

I always thought Quids was somehow a part of the city? ;)

[Jeremy]

I would guess not from the above post. Quids' post reminds me of the nonsense the readers contribute to BBC news and the free papers.

[????]

And what's your counter argument then Jeremy? Other than abuse and blind optimism...Come on economic sage

[Huguenot]

I understand your poke Quids.

To accept the challenge, I don't consider the picture is as dark as you describe.

There needs to be an inequity between product, productivity, supply and demand to generate a genuine global collapse. I just can't see it.

A third of the world's population is stil demanding access to basic supplies. Half of the world's population is in India and China and they're looking for ovens, not toasters.

The major issue - that they're looking for meat rather than arable stock - still hasn't been addressed, and they're willing to sacrifice labour rather than principle to achieve it.

The majority global debt nonsense was based upon poorly executed short term derivative gambles on a non existent promise. The UK still represents a secure market that guarantees reasonable payment on a commodities barter. This only exists in two other markets globally - SG & NY.

60,000 may lose their jobs this year, but 70,000 will be back tomorrow.

[????]

So acting as a global guaranteer of trade in commodities will make up for the massive loss in all the trad Investment Banking revenue we've generated since Big Bang, the 10 years plus of pyramid selling of deriviatives that has pumped billions into our economy and as importantly has (falsley) stood as an asset on GB PLC's balance sheet...er and that includes your and mine properties, pension funds and investments, all the 'sophisticated' investment vehicles such as hedgefunds...all replaced by the fact that we can still be counted a decent gurantor of chinese pork-bellies?

Come on Hugenot, the almost 20 year old party in the city of London has ended as has the boom in international finance, of course we'll still have expertise and a share but of a massively diminished global market with very little appetite for sophisticated value adding (I tried to write that with a staright face)financial products. Massive bonuses, huge tax revenues to the government, massive contribution to our balance of payments....all gone for good in the last few months. Shit, I'll expect we'll be taking the cotton wool out of those closed mines and learning to make things again pretty damned soon. We have a very tough few years ahead....Singapore won't escape unscathed either fella but will be better than us....

[Jeremy]

I'm interested in hearing your reasons for equating derivatives with pyramid selling.

I think we'll see a reduction in people using the higher risk instruments purely as a speculative investment, but that doesn't mean that the financial industry is finished. Financial products are always going to be needed to some extent, both on a corporate or retail level.

[benmorg]

a huge number of cheap restaurants in the West End are doing two-for-one vouchers at the moment. people in my office have piles of the things. Evening Standard reported about a week ago that low-to-mid price restaurants in central London are really struggling at the moment because everyone is tightening their belts. I think the same must be true of east dulwich, so we might see one or two restaurants struggling to stay afloat over the next year. i would have thought some of the more frivolous gift shops will also have problems.

[????]

erm, Jeremy how much do you know about derivatives as that effects my response - I don't want to patronise or bamboozle.... since the early 90s mortgage deriviatives have been sliced up and sold on as safe investments (with backed AAA ratings) these safe 'assets' have then been used by the banks and other financial institutions to raise further capital - this is 'gearing' or 'leverage'. Some say that banks have in effect been allowed (by other banks) to raise upto 35 times their asset (including these paperless mortgage deriviatives) position - imagine getting a mortgage for 35 times your income! This capital is all electronic/on paper so not 'real' and this is has then been taken back out to the market (credit market) to sell and then be sold on again by said fiancial institution to raise more money to bolster up its 'asset' position etc etc...that's basically the same principle as pyramid selling.

Anyway, the bottom line is that now these $1 assets are now going forabout 9c on the open market and many organisations/pension funds/banks/etc etc thus had hugely inflated values that have now gone...no winners just losers, and mainly you and I. Effectively imagine that the global economy has just opened its wallet and taken out 30% of its cash

and burned it - no transfer, no productivity, just money that wasn't really there but we -individuals/governemnets/banks/pension funds- thought that we had just gone...gonna painful for everyone, but worse for us, this country and city have benefitted enourmously from this false position as we were part inverntors and certailnly willing participants in the massive self-delusion that has now gone...for good.....

[snorky]

be careful of using the term derivatives as some kind of one stop definition - there are many many variations - most serve a purpose in the system of capital for risk management & have done for many many years

Im sure you know this ????, but too often the media seems to be full of this scaremongering stuff & every pub is full of people from the Camerwell omnibus with forthright views on the subject, who are being drip fed by the awful tabloids & have no knowledge of it beyond a couple of paras in their rag of choice - the heinous simpering cod left turd sheet the Guardian included

Not that this applies to everyone here,please rest assured

[????]

At a straight forward level deriviatives are an effective risk management product agreed Snorky - what's happened with them for 15 years is not and much of our economy has been based on the latter!! Don't worry Snorky - The crowing left will get a real shock soon when they see how dependent they have been on the hated city to keep their 'Diversity Officers' in ?40K a year jobs. Among the biggest sinners in this sorry state has been government - and our great man for a crisis GB - that have spunked the gains of our spivs on dole, 'Diversity positions' and other massive increases in Public Sector salaries (see Doctors) without ANY improvement in services or investment in our infrastructure. We've all been on a massive binge on cars, houses, etc, etc and now it's pay back time, and that, my friends, is a FACT.

[????]

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