?600 billion to leave EU? What does EU membership really cost?

[keano77]

Just been watching slimy Nick Clegg talking at the Brexit debate and it reminded me.

Last night on Newsnight Evan Davis interviewed Guy verhofstadt who will be a player in Brexit negotiations. Evan asked him about the sum of ?60 Billion the UK has commitments to pay the EU by the time we leave.

Guy replied that current and future commitments by the time the UK leaves will be ?600 Billion. Evan Davis didn't pick him up on this and I haven't seen anything in the papers or on the news about it.

Was this a mistake by Guy? A Freudian slip?

The UK, rightly, will honour all its commitments. However, why should UK taxpayers keep paying the likes of Clegg's, and that great socialist family the Kinnocks', EU pensions among other things?

The UK ought to say (politely) after the two years we will off-set any payments against the costs to UK companies of any tariffs imposed on our goods and services.

(Newsnight, Jan 30, around 37 mins)

[Jules-and-Boo]

There's a big difference between ?60 and ?600billion!

[JohnL]

Brexit Express has got it. Looks like he said it.

http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/761018/Guy-Verhofstadt-Newsnight-600-billion-Brexit-bill-EU-exit

How much is that each ?

[keano77]

If true, on the basis of a population of 60m people then ?10,000 for every man, woman and baby in swaddling clothes.

[kford]

I won't believe it unless it's written on the side of a big, red bus.

[keano77]

What is a bit worrying about this ?600 Billion figure, if true, is that UK taxpayers appear to have been misled as to the true cost of membership of the EU.

If we assume our net contribution (allowing for the abatement) is around ?8.5 Billion a year for 2017,18 and 19 that's ?25.5 Billion. So what is the outstanding ?574.5 Billion for?

Is there something Remainers would like to fess up to?

[red devil]

Expenses!..:)

[Seabag]

Let's find out the real facts, not the speculative #AltFacts and discuss them.

Else we're back to asking 'where's the ?350 squillion Scot the NHS then?"

And then .....you know the form!

[Otta]

I got my tax breakdown last year. I paid ?88 to the EU. Less than I paid for anything else. A fifth if what I soent on defence. A tenth of what I spent on state pensions and education. A 20th of what I spent on welfare. And a full 1500 quid less than I spent on health.

Seems lime a bargain to me.

[Loz]

Otta Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> I got my tax breakdown last year. I paid ?88 to the EU.

Yep - and you'll pay much more than that in higher Brexit prices over the next 12 months.

[keano77]

Seabag Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> Let's find out the real facts, not the speculative

> #AltFacts and discuss them.

>

> Else we're back to asking 'where's the ?350

> squillion Scot the NHS then?"

>

> And then .....you know the form!

I agree. The figure might have been a slip of the tongue by a non-native speaker although he spoke fluently.

If such a figure were to be the EU's opening gambit in the forthcoming negotiations I'll look forward to how the FT and the Economist break it down.

[jaywalker]

keano77 Wrote:

>

> Guy replied that current and future commitments by

> the time the UK leaves will be ?600 Billion. Evan

> Davis didn't pick him up on this and I haven't

> seen anything in the papers or on the news about

> it.

What he said in the interview was that this was the implied cost of leaving, not the cost of 'being in'. Those two things are not at all the same (for a start they would refer to different time horizons).

These are highly technical issues. We know what the net annual cost of being in the EU is because we have been paying it (after rebates) for years. It was for that reason we (well, I know not quite all of us) knew that the lies about the ?350m per week we would gain for the NHS were lies and not truth.

[keano77]

Sorry jaywalker, doesn't wash with me.

He might have said implied cost of leaving and there might well be highly technical issues to be resolved. But if the net annual cost of membership is approx ?8.5Billion and we leave by 2020 how could we still owe some ?550 Billion?

Now I realise we probably have agreements on defence, intelligence, green commitments etc that will no doubt continue. However, if Verhofstadt's ?600 Billion includes such matters the true cost of membership is significantly more than what we think we've been paying.

You'll have to do better than that Jaywalker

[jaywalker]

er, like I said, because the cost of leaving is not the same as the cost of staying in?

For example, you might say, it only costs me ?100 a year to stay in this house (insurance, council tax) but to leave it will cost me ?1000 (lawyers fees).

You are trying to create an equivalence where none exists.

[Loz]

keano77 Wrote:

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> If we assume our net contribution (allowing for

> the abatement) is around ?8.5 Billion a year for

> 2017,18 and 19 that's ?25.5 Billion. So what is

> the outstanding ?574.5 Billion for?

I doubt it will be ?600m, but if you think Brexit will only cost the remaining years' contributions, you're in for a big surprise.

[keano77]

But here we're saying it costs us ?8.5Billion a year to stay in and enjoy the benefits but if we leave it will cost the equivalent of 70.5 years membership with no single market access and tariffs to boot.

Okay, I don't expect you to know the answer Jaywalker and I realise it's probably an inflated figure to start the negotiations with. We'll have to wait until they reveal their hand.

[malumbu]

I paid the equivalent of one Walnut Whip every week from the time of the announcement that we would be host city for London 2012.

People whinged and moaned. It was great. It was always going to be great.

Not even that bothered of some of the legacy promises that were not fulfilled. Except the use for the ammers.

I'm sure that the comparison with the Walnut Whip was not alt/fake news. Other items of confectionary are available.

[Seabag]

It would have been great to be discussing such matters before the *ahem* RFNDM

No?

Speculation on ?6000000000000000 +/- a few zeros here and there, is only going to create unnecessary anxiety

[Abe_froeman]

This is being discussed now on Newsnight. ..

[Abe_froeman]

Maximum ?60bn they think. Possibly lower down to as little ( !) as ?34bn.

[Seabag]

Down to ?24-32 billion now on BBC

[keano77]

We'll that's better. Obviously a mistake by the lead Brexit negotiator for the European Parliament. Interesting that the video on the BBC website doesn't carry that bit.

[Seabag]

keano77 Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> We'll that's better. Obviously a mistake by the

> lead Brexit negotiator for the European

> Parliament. Interesting that the video on the BBC

> website doesn't carry that bit.

That's funny Keano, there's us discussion discount in the billions, as if we're paying it ourselves

Oh.....hang on a minute

How many Walnut Whips is that?

[keano77]

Hard to know Seabag.

In my day a Walnut Whip was a Walnut Whip - not like the chocolate-drop sized pretenders mascarading as Walnut Whips these days.

[uncleglen]

The EU desk jockies are going to try and squeeze as much out of us as possible but since the EU budget has never been ratified how can they accurately calculate it. Also we have only been in it since 1973 (De Gaulle blocked us for 14 years!) unlike founder countries

The cost of the gravy train and its pension fund is sickening.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/oct/13/brexit-britain-cost-divorce-bill-questions-answered-uk