burglaries in Forest Hill/East Dulwich areas

[drew]

Thats a good point concita ... but you appear to compare absolute numbers without comparing on a relative basis over a longer period of time.

I did a quick analysis the other day, comparing the area I used to live in NW London (West Hampstead) to both my ward and sub-ward in ED. With the exception of a spike in August 2010, WH generally had more reported crime than ED. There was no forum in existence in WH, so I had no idea of any of the crime around me - I thought there was no crime at all given I didnt know anyone who was a victim. I am sure this comparison can be made for a number of wards around London.

After the August spike, September numbers in ED are back to the average for my area (similar to June and July), therefore I find it hard to see that we live in a "hot" crime area because of one unusual month. As said by many on this forum ... knowing everything that happens can create unnecessary fear.

No disrespect to those recent victims of course (including you concita): its a terrible thing to happen, and hopefully better awareness can help reduce these numbers in the future. We need to balanced with our views by not creating fear, but also not ignoring the fact that crime is everywhere and we need to be wary at all times.

[James Barber]

i'm meeting east Dulwich ward Police tonight and will ask what their take on all this is and report back.

[James Barber]

East Dulwich ward Police Safer Neighbourhood Team tonight reported that for the last 12 weeks REPORTED crime was:

0 GBH

4 assaults (ranging from a shove to a bloody nose)

10 thefts from motor vehicles

4 motor vehicles damaged

3 bicycles stolen

0 people robbed

For burglaries, 5 in the last 2 weeks. Good news 2 burglars caught on Barry Road in the act and charged.

The ward priorities were and remain:

1. burglaries

2. thefts from people in licensed premises

3. youth engagement

What does this mean on the ground?

1. Burglaries

Local ED Police have leafletted all 5,250 homes in the ward highlighting free property marking SelectaDNA kits, free bicycle D locks, free motorbike locks, free panic alarms, free crime prevention advice visits.

For vulnerable adults and victims of crime FREE sash windows locks installation and similar.

Mainly burglaries in ED from sash windows being forced - sash 'restrictor' locks quickest and easiest way to reduce this risk and cost about ?3 per window from all good DIT stores.

Currently 6-10 ED residents a day taking up the above offers.

2. Thefts from people in licensed premises.

FREE Chelsea clips (to attach bag handles) offered again to all licensed premises and other promotional material to highlight the risks to customers. Very few takers so far.

Letter from the Police sargent responsible for licensing in Southwark asking all East Dulwich licensed premises to attend a meeting this Wednesday morning - if enough attend a Pub Watch scheme can happen.

After that meeting I'll tell you which licensed premises took part and want to ensure their customers are not victims of crime.

3. Youth engagement

We only have four primary schools in ED. Police visiting these kids. Getting groups of them involved with projects involving older citizens and visiting each others schools.

[cate]

James, do you know what the Lane figures are?

[ianr]

>Mainly burglaries in ED from sash windows being forced - sash 'restrictor' locks quickest and easiest way to reduce this risk

>and cost about ?3 per window from all good DIT stores.

But see also the discussion in another thread about some locked ones being broken open. Possibly some types or installations may be better than others.

[DJKillaQueen]

Some bolt locks won't hold if there is rot in the endges of the frames or the wood is soft. They are no match for a crowbar levering up. Restrictors work quite well but make sure they are locked because otherwise all it will take to open them is a metal rule.

[Pearson]

DJKillaQueen Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> Some bolt locks won't hold if there is rot in the

> endges of the frames or the wood is soft. They are

> no match for a crowbar levering up. Restrictors

> work quite well but make sure they are locked

> because otherwise all it will take to open them is

> a metal rule.

_________________________________________________________

All useless at the end of the day... they'll simply put a brick through

the back door if they can. The truth is, they'll always find a way when you

least suspect. Being burgled, sadly is just one of those things that we will

probably all encounter in some form or other.

The positive side of this is that hopefully it'll only ever happen a few times

in your lifetime.

All these threads make out as if it were happening to alot of people alot of the time.

I very much doubt that is the case...

[DJKillaQueen]

Funnily enough that is exactly what happened to a house of a friend. I spent the day fitting unbreakable locks with metal strip reinforcements. I made the door unbreakable too....and put up a sensor security light. Two days later, thieves unable to get through the locks just broke the window panes. And nobody heard a thing!

[Pearson]

^lol (in an odd way)

[James Barber]

Hi ianr,

Those windows weren't in East Dulwich ward.

Hi cate,

The Lane ward is in Peckham so I'm afraid I don't know those reported crime figures. You could call your Safer Neighbourhood Team. You could ask to join the ward panel to help select priorities for your police team.

hi pearson,

Most burglars will not burgle at any price. They're looking for east targets. Unlocked doors and windows, etc.

[cate]

DJKillaQueen Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> Funnily enough that is exactly what happened to a

> house of a friend. I spent the day fitting

> unbreakable locks with metal strip reinforcements.

> I made the door unbreakable too....and put up a

> sensor security light. Two days later, thieves

> unable to get through the locks just broke the

> window panes. And nobody heard a thing!

So how did they actually get in? Was it a back door? Wasn't the door locked so they couldn't get it open with door bolts or something?

[cate]

James, do you know when the burglars caught in the act were apprehended? There are a quite a few people who have been done by having their windows taken out which seems extreme to me.

[DJKillaQueen]

They broke the front window cate, and climbed through it. There was no way for them to open a window or door.

[cate]

DJKillaQueen Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> They broke the front window cate, and climbed

> through it. There was no way for them to open a

> window or door.

Sorry, I misunderstood. Eek!

[James Barber]

Tomorrow Wednesday 10 November 6.30pm - 7pm Christchurch (263 Barry Road near the Lordship Lane junction)all three local Police teams covering East Dulwich, College and Village wards will be holding surgeries.

If you have any concerns or issues about crime and anti social behaviour come and discuss them.

If you're an ED resident come along also for free property marking kits, etc.

[SeanMacGabhann]

tension mounts... if someone doesn't get done soon I fear concita might burst when it does happen

[Jeremy]

I wonder what the correlation is between number of active EDF members and posts about burglaries?

[Huguenot]

Well, 15,000 and about 12 so far. About 0.08% or something.

They're everywhere, I tell 'ee.

[edresi10]

Not sure why everyone is so aggro on this, have never been burgled but imagine it isnt very nice. lets hope that you all get burgled though and see how you react then.

The woman who started this thread obviously seems a bit upset, even a little crazy, but this just seems to be bullying to me.

[ianr]

That reminds me, I think I have somewhere a spare copy for sale of Siegel's Non-parametric statistics. Huguenot?

[Huguenot]

Sorry, edresi10, your point is a valid one. I'm not sure it's the intent of others to bully.

I think maybe there's a strong argument for social harmony. Burglary is a terrifying and unsettling experience, but it's not pervasive. It's exceptional.

It's entirely destructive to have 10,000 ED residents in a permanent state of anxiety over a crime that is unusual. Our society is bonded by a mutual trust that shouldn't be eroded on the basis of inappropriate fear.

[Huguenot]

Cross-post ianr, but as you've guessed, I'm on it.

[edresi10]

Very true Huguenot, threads like this spread fear, but I can also see them being a way of venting for victims of crime, perhaps looking for a bit sympathy! Im sure that the threads have done a good job in alerting people to the fact that crime does occur in this area, as well as the majority of London and that vigilance is always a good thing. However I agree that these things make it sound like it is the worst area in London, which it certainly does not seem to be. It may be a target and thefore there has been a spike, but people should feel quite safe, but consider themselves well informed.

[Huguenot]

:)

Thanks edressi10, I thought I was getting in all manner of trouble then.

To respond to ianr, you are clearly a man of letters. I'm proud of my knowledge but the maths of that chap has never crossed my doors.

To paraphrase the relevant arguments, it's important to be aware of the nature of your research sources, but not necessarily wrong.

For example, if you wanted to know if Halo III was good, you should ask the players of Halo III. The data source is not balanced, but it's relevant.

However, with the prevalence of crime, a data source such as comments on this thread may not reflect the experiences of the population at large, simply because this thread is likely to attract those who have been victim to crime. Hence it may lack credibility.

Apologies to ianr.

[SeanMacGabhann]

edrisi - if you're aiming for the moral high ground, probably best if you don't wish ill on people?

That said you make some valid points. My intention is not to bully anyone, but it is very trying when someone just won't listen to a little bit of perspective and appears to delight in jumping at any crimes reported on here

And you're correct, being burgled is horrible and makes one feel really shitty and it has happened to me so I'm not talking from some cloud cuckoo-land

But when someone says "ooh another burglary - it appears to be getting worse!" and then several people follow up with "oh no I've just moved here and now I'm really worried", I'm not sure venting isn't a little bit selfish. Saying to people "be careful" should be a given if you live in London - do we need to be told it after every crime?