Double Dip??

[Brendan]

Oh yeah, like Zimbabwe.

[????]

Yup - that's the huge potential downside. It's madness and hugely risky but it's potentially coming...didn't say I supported it. The Weimar republic would be a more apt and far scarier example actually Brendan.

[????]

To be honest, the best I think we (us, companies the govt) can hope for is limping along for a 'fair few' more years with low inflation rates chipping away at our debts and a continued reduction in state spending and anemic growth in most private sector areas....it's going to be grim.

[????]

So, horrid as it is we should welcome ?7bn of city bonuses (taxed at 50%) the huge corporation tax receipts the banks will give us and a reasonably soon sell off of our shares in banks at a profit....and then think about how to rebalance our economy and put a break on excesses in the future, for now it's any port in a storm IMO

[louisiana]

???? Wrote:

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>

>

> We, the west, badly need some significant economic

> growth.

It's not going to happen, boyo :-$

The 'perpetual growth' models are bust. See population. See peak oil. See peak everything. And forget the economists. They never saw it coming (says she with a UCL economics degree).

[????]

I wouldn't argue against you Lousiana - if it is true then it does maen that we all need to pull together and the 'dismantling' of the welfare state as we know is inevitable. I think on the upside technology may rescue us yet...maybe

[DJKillaQueen]

Aye I think we will have to pull together and share more as well.

[louisiana]

Quids, we might be able to limp along were it not for China.

Everyone owes China. Especially the US. Big time. What if China decides not to play ball on debt?

According to clients of mine who have a substantial Chinese (and international) presence, it's almost impossible to get money out of China. China for these firms is a cost centre, not anything else, 'cos profit taking (for such firms) is well-nigh impossible.

China has millions of PhDs to throw at anything, and they think long term.

They are also creating some of the most significant environmental issues, owing to sheer numbers. Check out their stats on coal, on cars, on anything.

We are only seeing the beginning of the Chinese issue and how this will impact on the world.

We need to factor in China.

[louisiana]

???? Wrote:

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> I wouldn't argue against you Lousiana - if it is

> true then it does maen that we all need to pull

> together and the 'dismantling' of the welfare

> state as we know is inevitable. I think on the

> upside technology may rescue us yet...maybe

I'll believe it when I see it quids. Most people upbeat about tech as the saviour of us all don't work in tech. Technology moves pretty damn slow. See how much progress we've made on batteries, for example. 'Planes cannot as yet fly on veggie oil, and PV systems are reliant for energy storage on deep-cycle battery technology used in caravans in the ?1950/1960s.

[????]

RE China - what I think most people don't get is that this recession/slump is a paradigm shift in power to the developing countries. The West hasn't had its day but it's had its day with the share of wealth and resources it's had and globlly that's fair enough but it means painful change for most of us...pople still say "oh well i remember the recession in 1990s/80s" as if they're the same thing. Relaity Check on the way.

[louisiana]

Absolutely, quids.

We're now in the terrain of Tainter's Collapse of Complex Societies. In the terrain of 'this model has failed', and this or that society is on the downhill path.

I forget to mention in the previous post: China is of course buying up sources of raw materials across the world. Some of this (e.g. their strategy on rare metals) can be dealt with: there are other sources that we can re-develop in other global locations. But some maybe not.

The balance of power is certainly changing. It would be foolish to ignore this.

[Huguenot]

I think that's a very fair point Quids.

We really didn't get a recession out here, as growth just dropped from 11% to 9%. No-one noticed.

[SeanMacGabhann]

Many good points coming to the fore now

But there are many things we don't know as well. Unquestionably the shift of power to the east means we aren't right to compare this to previous slumps. And yet, and yet...

What China and India have in common is a (to date) compliant workforce. The big labour struggles throughout the 20th century in the US and Europe have yet to be played out there. Arguably the balance of power against the workers in these countries is greater but something tells me not all is as predictable as we may think

[louisiana]

Well that's the great unknown, as you say, SM. We cannot predict what the future will hold, how people will respond.

And also bear in mind DJKQ's comment:

Aye I think we will have to pull together and share more as well.

That's why I also work on green/sustainability/community stuff.

Because despite certain models being kind of broken, there is stuff we can work through. It may be that in 20, 30, 50 years' time the power brokers of the world will be in a different location, and we may have problems that we never imagined in our youth. But there's still a sustainable life here, eh? Well, that's what I like to hope.

Now others may think that the battles will be played out at another level e.g. corporate banking. Maybe some of them will be. The power game. But I'm kind of thinking though that even those rules will have changed (for many people). I just don't think all the proponents of 'global' actually realised what 'global' meant. And in a way I don't care. My view is that nobody's responsible for me apart from me. But I'm happy to help where I can.

[Huguenot]

I'd like to see the decentralisation of renewable power generation.

I reckon that would solve the world's ills single handedly - having a domino effect on water supply and hydroponic farming, the greening of the deserts.

In turn this dissipates the energy in international turmoil and leads to the demise of the nation state, a rise in self-sustaining economic tribes and a golden age for independent enterprise.

*turns down rising crescendo of power chords*

[louisiana]

Huguenot, I'm sorry that I have to go and do some painting now (before certain workmen turn up) but...

Decentralisation of power gen is fab in that it saves on HUGE loses in transmission (one third?). It also makes people more resiliant, self sufficient. 'Make power where it is used' is no bad thing. There's a massive UK corporate interest in giving power to big business (our friends) when local generation could sometimes work as well if not better.

However, I'm not seeing the impact vis a vis water supply. I'm looking to southern Europe and what I am seeing is huge areas very short of water that are proposing massive infrastructure for e.g. desalination plants that are massively energy intensive; because they don't want to tell people to use less water (charged at far less than cost hence unlimited demand). I'd love for you to explain your reasoning on this.

[Huguenot]

No worries, I'm just getting quietly pissed on a Saturday evening here in sweltering Singers. Bumbalina's over with you lot at the moment, so there's no-one to tell me what a loser I am ;-)

Desalination exactly.

It is massively energy intensive, but I'm proposing that decentralised renewable energy generation would negate this howling shortcoming.

When I'm talking about decentralised renewable energy I'm kinda dreaming about cold fusion compact power plants, so we'd really be swimming in amps.

[waynetta]

DAB a series of dots onto bourbon biscuits with icing, and voila!

Edible dominoes.

[DJKillaQueen]

Yes the points on the developing countries is an important one and absolutely right that China is propping up the dollar.

I don't things are as bleak. I think we can reinvent ourselves in the West. For example what we should be doing is manufacturing high quality high value items. We manufacture JCB diggers for example but with parts made in Spain. Why can't we make the parts? We still have steel foundries.

I just think we need to let go of some things and accept we have to reinvent. Historically in Britian we've been bad at that though...slow to change anything and that is our greatest hindrance. We do have talent here, great Universities, great hopsitals, researchers......we just need to shift our enphasis and invest in the things we do well and then hopefully be able to sell that to the rest of the world more than we are doing at present.

[????]

Eventually chinese labour will want more than a $1 an hour...that's when it will start to turn...fair time off

[mockney piers]

Labour issues in China are becoming more prominent. There have already been murders of people coming to restructure factories. There is increasing evidence that the central authorities are treading lightly in terms of upsetting the workforce, and the third factor is that weakened central authority is giving way to increased local power. We're not looking at warlords any more but power is concentrating in the hands of local party bosses and industrialists, often the same thing.

China has a long history of not fulfilling the fears/promise of the predictions made for it.

Ive studied Chinese history, indeed gave a talk to the visiting head of history at Beijing university. It's always fascinating but it is most certainly chimerical and things rarely go the way of expectation. Sean hits the nail on the head, events are yet to play out that undercurrents are pointing to. I can't see it ever being the superpower so many claim it will.

[mockney piers]

Having said that, western hegemony is most definitely on the wane and peak x means we, or at least our children will meet the classic Chinese curse 'may you live in interesting times'.

[SeanMacGabhann]

I'm certainly never going to teach any child of mine about the evils of emigration/immigration

[Mick Mac]

SeanMacGabhann Wrote:

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> I'm certainly never going to teach any child of

> mine about the evils of emigration/immigration

Says the Irishman in London. Your arguments might be a bit weak Sean.

[SeanMacGabhann]

I don't follow your point there Mick