Predictions for 2017

[bob]

Rent and Rates on L/L will go up.

Bob S

[jaywalker]

That none of these will happen:

people (and my neighbour) suddenly realise that Bach had more to say than One Direction (or whoever, it is sometimes difficult to tell)

those who buy the Daily Mail join the enlightenment

the police accept that they are responsible for deaths in custody

the prison service recognise that prisons manufacture criminality and call a strike to stop it

central government accepts that the care of elderly people is their responsibility

teachers have an epiphany: that they are part of the problem

the 'war on drugs' is seen to be the stupidity it is

politicians admit that surveillance is not good just because 'if you are doing nothing wrong then you have nothing to fear'

[Jenny1]

That on, or around, the 4th of May swifts will return to East Dulwich.

[DulwichFox]

The Sun will continue to Rise in the East and Set in the West..

Foxy.

[jaywalker]

From the BBC website today

"Of course, inflation is still at historically low levels - and no one is predicting a 1970s-style spike"

I predict that this is wrong

(as in, no one is predicting we will Brexit, no one seriously thinks Trump will win and other nonsense read this year)

The build-up to inflation is uncannily similar to the circumstances of the early 1970s - oil prices, lagged effect of monetary easing, fall in the pound, unsustainable government debt, a government that will attempt to spend their way to re-election ...

[Lordship 516]

Yup !

[Henry_17]

JW, L16,

What you are missing is that if there were to be a large surprise in inflation it would lead to mayhem in asset prices. This would be unpopular and so the government and central bank who after all have complete control won't let it happen.

[Lordship 516]

Henry_17 Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> JW, L16,

>

> What you are missing is that if there were to be a

> large surprise in inflation it would lead to

> mayhem in asset prices. This would be unpopular

> and so the government and central bank who after

> all have complete control won't let it happen.

Ho Ho HO ..! If only it were so simple. The Government & central banks have only very little control of inflation or asset values. Inflation & other economic impacts creep up on any economy & are also susceptible to external events & influences - we are dangerously close to the point where the little control they have in the UK will cease to be effective.

Most companies are holding back on passing on price increases & are maintaining jobs but that cannot hold out forever.

Today's economic picture looks reasonable but based on lagging data. The new year [Q1 & Q2 2017] will show very different outcomes - lets see what the picture is like next September/December.