BREXIT: Why so personal?

[ianr]

Shaggy> One interesting point, though, is that if it does turn out that Article 50 is

Shaggy> reveresable, then the courts will quash Thursday's ruling.

Or if in doubt, refer it to the CJEU, as has at least been mooted by some, even before the referendum; see eg http://www.howtocrackanut.com/blog/2016/11/3/why-an-appeal-of-the-high-court-parliamentary-brexit and https://eutopialaw.com/2016/07/08/what-next-an-analysis-of-the-eu-law-questions-surrounding-article-50-teu-part-one/. I suspect rather an outside chance, but it does promise possible further dark comedic potential, for them as can take any more, that is.

[Jenny1]

That makes interesting reading ianr. Thanks for posting the links.

[JohnL]

I still think it's common sense that A50 is reversible. Why is it not - nothing has changed after invoking it.

The article below states TM should be clear before invoking it that she knows if it's reversible - and it benefits her negotiations if it is. We could withdraw, wait a bit then invoke it again for instance.

http://uk.businessinsider.com/brexit-article-50-may-not-be-reversible-2016-10

and the blog (repeating what has been said here)but concluding it'll have to go to Europe to decide.

https://waitingfortax.com/2016/10/16/brexit-the-important-role-of-the-court-of-justice/

Worth noting if (when our millennial generation) grow up - they decide to go back into the EU it would be without any budget rebate and within the common currency in all probability.

[red devil]

Alan Medic Wrote:

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> Pure speculation, but what do people think will

> happen?

All hinges on the Supreme Court decision.

If they overturn last week's decision, then it's full steam ahead with Brexit, and probably a hard one with the hawks in the Cabinet pulling May's strings.

If they side with last week's judgement, then as has already been said it's a mess with a myriad of possible outcomes.

Maybe there will (should) be a good old fashioned political compromise. The MPs agree to vote for Article 50 to be triggered, but with the caveat that the terms of Brexit that the Gov has negotiated are then voted on by a second Referendum.

That way there are no accusations that Brexit has been blocked, and the Gov gets to negotiate how it sees fit, keeping it's bargaining chips close to it's chest. The public will then be voting from a much more informed standpoint as to what Brexit actually will mean politically and economically for the country...

[JohnL]

red devil Wrote:

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> Alan Medic Wrote:

> --------------------------------------------------

> -----

> > Pure speculation, but what do people think will

> > happen?

>

> All hinges on the Supreme Court decision.

> If they overturn last week's decision, then it's

> full steam ahead with Brexit, and probably a hard

> one with the hawks in the Cabinet pulling May's

> strings.

> If they side with last week's judgement, then as

> has already been said it's a mess with a myriad of

> possible outcomes.

> Maybe there will (should) be a good old fashioned

> political compromise. The MPs agree to vote for

> Article 50 to be triggered, but with the caveat

> that the terms of Brexit that the Gov has

> negotiated are then voted on by a second

> Referendum.

> That way there are no accusations that Brexit has

> been blocked, and the Gov gets to negotiate how it

> sees fit, keeping it's bargaining chips close to

> it's chest. The public will then be voting from a

> much more informed standpoint as to what Brexit

> actually will mean politically and economically

> for the country...

If Article 50 is irreversible a second referendum would be

(A) accept the terms agreed

(B) Exit with no terms

We're effectively out as soon as we invoke it ??

Yet if it's reversible the appeal should be allowed.

but parliament might get a choice of

(A) Accept the terms agreed

(B) Exit with no terms

© Return to the EU (and maybe invoke A50 again - been suggested)

[P.O.U.S.theWonderCat]

This is sobering.

[KirstyH]

Good thread. I liked rahrahrah's response to the first Q about why so personal - being about one's sense of identity and place in the world.

Two other Qs strike me i) on reversibility/Art.50 - what does the politial window for reversibility look like wrt how this is seen in Europe? Is there a legal point-of-no-return after which you can't trigger the 'reverse' during the negotiating process and would the default simply be back to BAU (as now)? Even if legally possible, what about the politics - would the dumped 27 want a full marriage again? How much political capital would have been lost through a heavy-handed negotiation strategy? What are the consequences for Britain's role in the EU? National elections in other EU countries next year surely make the landscape even more uncertain. Attitudes can harden quickly.

ii) Don't forget the other front - TM has to manage the relationship w other 3 nations of UK - including with the passage of any 'EU Repeal Act'. Another heavy handed bad start - fobbing them off with a hotline to D-Davis.

In addition to the absent debate over which Brexit option, I don't have any confidence at all that they know how to run a complex negotiation beyond chest-beating to the media.

[jaywalker]

P.O.U.S.theWonderCat Wrote:

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> This is sobering.

That is terrifying.

It is not that the government is conspiring or sinister - it is that it is sleepwalking.

[ianr]

>This is sobering. Attachments: Enemies.jpg (40.4KB)

I don't know where you got it from, but the English caption is incorrect. Here's a clearer and fuller version of the original: http://www.hans-dieter-arntz.de/bilder/volksverraeter.png

The headline actually says: "Betrayers of the People Expelled From The German Community." The text declares that the following persons, located abroad (they had already fled the country), have been deprived of German citizenship, having acted in breach of their duty of loyalty to the reich and the people.

Of those in the first row that I can find mention of (all politicians), Scheidemann, Wels and Breitscheid were leading members of the SDP, Pieck a communist. None a lawyer.

Scheidemann https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Philipp_Scheidemann

Wels https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Otto_Wels

Pieck https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wilhelm_Pieck

Breitscheid https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rudolf_Breitscheid

[jaywalker]

That is so grim ianr.

The aporia of 'freedom of the press'.

[JohnL]

Horrible comparison that makes you wonder where we are headed.

[Earl Aelfheah]

If Brexit wasn't personal before, it is now ;-) http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/toblerone-triangle-change-prompts-fury-from-customers_uk_58218004e4b09d57a9a9b09b

[JohnL]

Oh yes - a spaced out Toblerone.

Just what the UK needs at this point.

[????]

I think people are getting their knickers in a twist........

[JohnL]

???? Wrote:

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> I think people are getting their knickers in a

> twist........

Can't afford to with the price of knickers post Brexit.

[JohnL]

Well that India trip was a disaster it seems.

[Earl Aelfheah]

Brexit not only means Brexit. It's also red white and blue. So that's clear.

[Earl Aelfheah]

Oh this is reassuring: https://www.ft.com/content/88c29514-d1b0-11e6-9341-7393bb2e1b51

[jaywalker]

yes, he is "just stepping aside" so that someone with 10 years of negotiating umph can take over now (at the beginning of "the process").

wonders of having people of the calibre of John Redwood and Nigel Farage dismiss this as an administrative efficiency :-(

[uncleglen]

No surprise really

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-38498839

[Loz]

jaywalker Wrote:

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> yes, he is "just stepping aside" so that someone

> with 10 years of negotiating umph can take over

> now (at the beginning of "the process").

If only such a person existed...

[Earl Aelfheah]

This is farcical https://www.ft.com/content/4735fad6-d1c0-11e6-b06b-680c49b4b4c0

We're tired of experts and complexity. We want someone red white and blue, who understands that Brexit means Brexit blah, blah, blah. I always assumed that May's inane rhetoric was based on a total disdain for the intelligence of the general public, that she was just hugely condescending. But now I'm starting to think she may not very bright and that this explains the simplicity of her rhetoric.

[JohnL]

The Ambassador is right with his 10 year line IMHO - that Sky News are vilifying him for. The 2 year negotiations are just about process and residents in UK and EU - Nobody seems to have realised this - why would the EU discuss trade deals in the two year talks about process (We can walk out early - very hard Brexit with no process).

Trade negotiations start after the 2 year process and Canada-EU talks took 7 years.

[Earl Aelfheah]

Of course he's right. He's been hounded out of his post be ideologues, who don't want to be challenged by inconvenient realities. It's an absolute shambles.

[Lordship 516]

Bresignations have started.....