Brexit reflections 10 weeks on

[malumbu]

Sorry to start a new thread,as I couldn't find one of the relevant old ones. It hasn't gone away, and will only get more relevant as time goes on. But maybe 10 weeks later time for a bit of more sober reflection. It would be interesting if others have a different slant on things, or understanding, to what they thought at the time. Not that we are going to fix it and please don't rant. I've done enough of that.

Even ten weeks later I am still stuggling to work out why and who to blame (including a number of our politicians). History will decide.

I still see and hear some of the rabid celebrations of outers, aimed as much at the liberal classes. Those of us who want a more equal society.

It was supposedly a vote against the free market yet not a lot has happened. We may get even more dependent on rogue states.

I am starting to loath all the project fear stuff and see this as an invention of the Brexiters. And from my take nobody talked about economic collapse, rather than a still very likely economic downturn (with additional borrowing, and the possibility of reduced revenue).

The government, city, BoE will of course work to mitigate that. But any grasping of short term benefits ("told you so" - inlcuding an article by the Grauniad economics editor) is very premature.

I have lost friends but thinking about it, their views and politics were diametrically opposed to mine and they were the little Englanders xenophobes that it easy to stereotype all Brexiters as. The one that does confuse me were the Green splinter group who voted out.

I am one of those who are going to have to sort this mess out. I loath the Government narrative which every other line is 'clear message' 'Brexit is Brexit'. I want a General Election.

The one argument that I can perhaps understand is the anti-federalism one. Which takes us back to Maastricht and why the fug we didn't have a referendum then (if we needed one at all). I'd still rather the mess that the EU is, due to the wider benefits including being part of the bigger thing, and common beliefs/purpose with the people of Europe. This is what was lacking in the stay campaign. From my ignorance of politics and history I thought the world was full of societies that were not properly functioning. Wasn't the US broke in the 30s but still trundled on?

I'm still coming across arguments where which are nothing to do with the EU, and are UK fiscal policy. We could have done things differently as the French in particular manage to do (protectionism, of course building costs would double!).

Whilst this is not a rant thread, do indulge me one little one. Perhaps all of those recent migrants that voted out would like to be first in the queue to leave. I am sure that this is a minority but still struggle with "EU allowed you to come to the UK to have a better life and now you have voted to leave.

[DulwichFox]

We have not left yet and possibly never will..

Woke a few people up though..

Perhaps if there is a General Election and a change of Government there may well be an abandoment of democracy

and a decision to ignore the referendum result and stay in the E.U.

Will be interesting to see if that decision would give the U.K. more say in our own policies or Brussells will

make things more difficult for us. ?

Really cannot see an Election happening too soon ..

...and can the result just be ignored if a group of people don't like the outcome.

Does voting change anything. ?

DulwichFox

[uncleglen]

and yet another rant against the people who voted out...imvho

Politicians are useless in the main- they are power crazy and who needs 750 more of them at a cost of ?63 million a week - especially the likes of European ones that are even more self-serving and short sighted than the pile of crap in the UK

[Blah Blah]

The recent injection of another ?70bn quantative easing into the markets tells you all you need to know about the pandora's box this has unleashed. Personally can't see us leaving. We'll end up with a Norway type deal to protect those exports that are vital to jobs and our now tanking economy. So we'll still pay into the EU and have no say in the directives we have to keep, like free movement of people. Those who voted for Brexit will feel cheated but no-one will really be happy and Cameron will go down in history as possibly the most foolish PM we've ever had.

I too can't see an election before boundary changes in 2018. If Labour tank in those local elections, I think May will seize that as her opportunity to call an election, to take advantage of both the boundary changes and Labour's position. She will do everything possible to stave off a recession in the meantime, so expect to see borrowing for capital investment from central government, and more quantitative easing, while she scraps the human rights act that is and whatever other telling signs of the right wing style of government that awaits.

Labour and Corbyn have 18 months max to get their act together. I'm not hopeful.

[Blah Blah]

There are 650 MPs uncleglen. They are being reduced to 600 with coming bondary changes. We need that many to ensure every region of the country is represented in parliament.

[JoeLeg]

Uncleglen, please don't act like the Leave campaign would've behaved any differently if it had lost.

You would've shouted just as loudly, complained just as much, and been just as angry. And that would've been your right, because we live in a society where we get to vote and then complain about the outcome if we don't like it. It may not change it but we can still say it. Certainly you say what you don't like all the time!

You and Foxy voted to Leave and you won. But I wonder if what comes out the other end will match what you hoped to achieve. Certainly my experience since the vote is that Leave voters want many different things from Brexit, some of which are mutually incompatible. I predict difficult times ahead, and many attempts by the government to try and please everyone, which will end up pleasing no one.

The Leave campaign was never able to tell us what Brexit would actually mean. They're all down at Chequers now trying to start and work it out. That says to me that we've leaped before we've looked. Not smart.

[Blah Blah]

It's also why May has appointed three fervent Brexiters to now negotiate the deal they promised they could deliver.

[Loz]

malumbu Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> Whilst this is not a rant thread, do indulge me one little one. Perhaps all of those recent

> migrants that voted out would like to be first in the queue to leave. I am sure that this is a

> minority but still struggle with "EU allowed you to come to the UK to have a better life and now

> you have voted to leave.

My understanding of this was that it was mainly non-EU immigrants that felt this way. There was some annoyance that they had had to jump through the various immigration hoops and, in some cases, were unable to bring family across. They were unhappy that EU countries could settle in the UK without facing the barriers they did.

[rendelharris]

Loz Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> malumbu Wrote:

> --------------------------------------------------

> -----

>

> > Whilst this is not a rant thread, do indulge me

> one little one. Perhaps all of those recent

> > migrants that voted out would like to be first

> in the queue to leave. I am sure that this is a

> > minority but still struggle with "EU allowed you

> to come to the UK to have a better life and now

> > you have voted to leave.

>

> My understanding of this was that it was mainly

> non-EU immigrants that felt this way. There was

> some annoyance that they had had to jump through

> the various immigration hoops and, in some cases,

> were unable to bring family across. They were

> unhappy that EU countries could settle in the UK

> without facing the barriers they did.

I think you may be right - my Indian immigrant mother-in-law was quite vociferous on the subject!

[JoeLeg]

Blah Blah Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> It's also why May has appointed three fervent

> Brexiters to now negotiate the deal they promised

> they could deliver.

A very smart move by her. If they deliver the government as a whole takes the credit. If they fail she throws them under a bus. And they know it.

The problem right now is that even those three can't agree on what Brexit should mean, and how the responsibilities should get divided up. That's why I'm not convinced by Leave voters who think this is a done deal. A long way from it.

[Blah Blah]

I completely agree Joe. May is quite the strategist here. And yes, we haven't even got the beginnings of a plan, because as you say, the three amigos can't agree amongst themselves.

[P.O.U.S.theWonderCat]

Loz Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> My understanding of this was that it was mainly

> non-EU immigrants that felt this way. There was

> some annoyance that they had had to jump through

> the various immigration hoops and, in some cases,

> were unable to bring family across. They were

> unhappy that EU countries could settle in the UK

> without facing the barriers they did.

About 50% of my friends are non-EU immigrants. None of them supported Brexit.

[P.O.U.S.theWonderCat]

Originally I thought May was mad putting Leadsom in charge of environment, until the penny dropped that she would have to be accountable to the farmers which are going to lose their subsidies long term.

[KidKruger]

I have several Indian immigrants working for me, they all voted OUT primarily because they didn't want their children's chances of doing well in the UK being diluted through further immigration and therefore competition (which I was amazed at).

[Blah Blah]

But that's because most people, no matter where they come from around the globe, vote out of self interest.

[LadyNorwood]

Young Polish lady in my local dry cleaners said she wished we had had the referendum earlier "before you let all the Romanians in" - the irony was lost on her....

[????]

mmmmm if you think about it it's actually a bit 'racist' to single out these examples as if 'they' are somehow not allowed these opinions as recent or from recent immigrant backgrounds, ironically ...........just pointing it out

[KidKruger]

No I don't agree, I'm merely pointing out my surprise that having availed of the opportunity themselves already they'd deny it to someone else so soon. As opposed to most of my extended family who voted out simply cos they don't like foreigners.

Anyone's allowed any opinion that's obvious to me and I hope it is to you, there's two different opinions listed above.

[Loz]

P.O.U.S.theWonderCat Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> Loz Wrote:

> --------------------------------------------------

> > My understanding of this was that it was mainly

> > non-EU immigrants that felt this way. There was

> > some annoyance that they had had to jump through

> > the various immigration hoops and, in some cases,

> > were unable to bring family across. They were

> > unhappy that EU countries could settle in the UK

> > without facing the barriers they did.

>

> About 50% of my friends are non-EU immigrants.

> None of them supported Brexit.

I am a non-EU immigrant. I voted to remain. About 90% of the people I know voted to remain (AFAIK, anyway).

The voting patterns of the UK as a whole didn't match either of our personal experiences, did it?

[jaywalker]

I think saying people are entitled to their opinion is crass. There are many people whose opinions are stupid, misinformed, essentialist and wrong. They should be told that those opinions are these things. Words are deeds: we are not so reticent when it comes to stupid physical actions.

Meanwhile, the EU has today mounted a full scale trade war with the USA. That is SO unwise. The US is not a 'controlled' state: there are too many disjoined centres of interest. So we will have an escalating trade war whoever is next president and whatever our status with respect to the EU. The rumour is that accountancy firms will be the next USA target (and that unlike BP they may not have the resources to withstand the 'fines') - we have so much to lose here.

Betting against global recession anyone?

[P.O.U.S.theWonderCat]

I'm not sure that the voting patterns as a whole demonstrate your claim that mainly non-EU migrants were pro-Brexit.

[Loz]

P.O.U.S.theWonderCat Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> I'm not sure that the voting patterns as a whole

> demonstrate your claim that mainly non-EU migrants

> were pro-Brexit.

... but nor does you asking a few friends negate it.

It's a technical point, but I didn't say (or at least didn't mean to say) that 'mainly non-EU migrants were pro-Brexit', I meant that, of the migrants that were pro-Brexit, they were mainly non-EU. My comment followed malumbu's "I am sure that this is a minority, but..." and I quoted that on purpose.

[Seabag]

Olive oil is still being sold and used on salads

But once it's back in the chemist (and ears) I'll know we'll have "gained back control"

[P.O.U.S.theWonderCat]

Technical point Loz but, if that is what you meant, the fact that all of my non-EU migrant friends voted Remain wouldn't have needed the comment from you that my experience didn't bear out with voting patterns...

I'd still be interested to see the evidence for the assertion that migrant Brexiteers were non-EU. You could well be right, but I've not seen that reported anywhere yet.

[????]

Anyway, back to the economics

Consumer Confidence up this morning (gfK), houseprices slightly ahead (Nationwide), when we add recent highs for FTSE 100 and 250, record levels of employment, and growth currently above pre-brexit forecasts - the wheels certainly aren't falling off yet as many foretold...including some 'experienced modellers' on here. Appreciate it's still early days.