softbank

[Lordship 516]

SOFTBANK DEAL

Japanese shareholders not so enamored with Softbank acquisition of ARM. Following the recent disposals, shareholders had expected that Softbank would address the debt problems that are inherent in Sprint, the US telecoms company where Softbank owns 80% stake & possibly issue a dividend to long suffering shareholders. Softbank will have to take on a lot more debt [$10billion] to complete the ARM deal and they also have $7.2 billion of bonds due for maturity in 2018 so many shareholders just had enough & bailed out and this has left the Softbank share price down 10%, the lowest price since their 2013 acquisition of Sprint.

Japanese ownership may even hinder ARM?s efforts to expand in China, as the Chinese government has some political issues with the Japanese government so if ARM is acquired by SoftBank, China will likely massively invest more to develop their own architecture and maybe some Chinese companies will use alternative architectures with the government already pushing local technology companies to come up with alternatives to foreign-owned technology. So there is a potential high loss of business for the future ARM business - China is not an insignificant buyer of technology, both for huge local consumption and massive export volumes. South Korea is also quite reluctant about doing business with Japan if they can avoid it.

Loss of control might see a dash for the door for some/many of ARM's highly qualified workers who would find no problem in getting good job offers elsewhere in the event of any interference with their current operating model or corporate culture.

This deal looks good for ARM now but how is Son going to fund the completion ? - more debt, $10billion - and also fund the proposed new jobs that he has promised ? More debt or possibly funded from cashflow - preferable as this would help the current account by reducing outflows but Son appears to be addicted to debt & financial engineering [sprint has $30 billion debt & Son has raised some funds by sale & leaseback of assets]. For the economy the immediate effect on the current account will be hugely positive, contributing ?24.3 billion FDI in a single deal, but it will impact future current account performance as ARM's profits [?340million & set to rise if we are to believe Son] flow out to Japanese banks, year after year.

A competing offer could possibly arise but even if the deal goes through unopposed the jury has to be out on the outcomes for a few years as we have to wait & see if Son's strategies & financial management will benefit ARM, its workers, the wider UK economy & Softbank itself.

May & Hammond might relish the short term effects of this deal but come to rue the long term outcomes.

[Jeremy]

Lordship 516 Wrote:

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> May & Hammond might relish the short term effects of this deal

What, the Top Gear blokes?

[*Bob*]

I MISS THE DRAWING ROOM THESE DAYS

[????]

Dose this really need another thread as it's already been discussed on another?? It's a bit spammy Lordship....

[Lordship 516]

???? Wrote:

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> Dose this really need another thread as it's

> already been discussed on another?? It's a bit

> spammy Lordship....

The other thread is about the ECONOMY - this is about a specific & important issue - I didn't intend to spam & there is plenty of space. Next time I feel like opening a thread I might ask your approval first.

[Siduhe]

Please stop shouting in your thread titles and posts.

[DaveR]

Next time you feel like opening a thread can it be something other than re-hashed Bloomberg plus econ consultancy wonk product? For all our sakes?

What do you think of M&S vs Iceland, for example?

[Lordship 516]

DaveR Wrote:

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> Next time you feel like opening a thread can it be

> something other than re-hashed Bloomberg plus econ

> consultancy wonk product? For all our sakes?

>

> What do you think of M&S vs Iceland, for example?

not bovvered !

[Lordship 516]

It's always best for some to tackle the man rather than address the actual issues. Of course I use references from elsewhere as everyone does, so whats the problem? I also add my own analysis & commentary. If you disagree why not state your own opinion ?

I don't apologise for being an econ wonk of sorts - that is my work. Maybe you prefer notional & emotional responses ?

[rendelharris]

DaveR Wrote:

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> Next time you feel like opening a thread can it be

> something other than re-hashed Bloomberg plus econ

> consultancy wonk product? For all our sakes?

I like reading L516's posts - as an economic ignoramus I find them interesting. If you don't like them why not just not open them, there's no need to be rude about it.

[DaveR]

When 50% by volume* of the posts on a particular day in the Lounge are this kind of analysis it gets a bit wearisome, particularly when half of it is in danger of being overtaken by events within the following 24 hours.

*An impressionistic rather than mathematical conclusion.

[????]

Lordship 516 Wrote:

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> ???? Wrote:

> --------------------------------------------------

> -----

> > Dose this really need another thread as it's

> > already been discussed on another?? It's a bit

> > spammy Lordship....

>

> The other thread is about the ECONOMY - this is

> about a specific & important issue - I didn't

> intend to spam & there is plenty of space. Next

> time I feel like opening a thread I might ask your

> approval first.

I enjoy the economic stuff; I like reading your input; I'm glad you're here...just think it's a bit spammy on a relatively micro-issue which won't have massive interest to most posters. Just my opinion.

[rendelharris]

DaveR Wrote:

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> When 50% by volume* of the posts on a particular

> day in the Lounge are this kind of analysis it

> gets a bit wearisome, particularly when half of it

> is in danger of being overtaken by events within

> the following 24 hours.

>

> *An impressionistic rather than mathematical

> conclusion.

Very impressionistic - glancing at the first page of The Lounge I can only see one similar thread and that wasn't started by Lordship!

[*Bob*]

It's a bit like what happened with the football - about which other likeminded individuals also enjoy chatting about regularly. Every day there used to be a new thread about, umm, Gazza's new boots or Rudi Voller's latest haircut etc etc. It wasn't exactly 'taking over' but it was enough to irritate some, certainly enough to comment.

Then someone started a thread called football focus, where all comments about hair and boots could be corralled - unless something 'wider' in the football world cropped-up, such as what flavour crisps Lineker was promoting or some such revelation, in which case a new thread seemed reasonable because it was in the wider public interest. It seemed a natural development and - basically - it stopped some people using the multiple threads as an opportunity to poke fun at people who seemed unnaturally obsessed with men kicking balls and their hair.

But obviously there aren't really any rules, so do and say whatever you like, wherever you like, just as others have on this thread. That's the deal, innit?

[DaveR]

"Very impressionistic - glancing at the first page of The Lounge I can only see one similar thread and that wasn't started by Lordship!"

"When 50% by volume* of the posts on a particular day..."

Posts by volume is different from numbers of threads - that's why I said it.

Ultimately, everyone on here does whatever they want, subject to very light touch regulation. I just have an aversion to big blocks of dense text econ analysis with confident accompanying conclusions. I can get that any time at work.

[Lordship 516]

Rendel & quids

Thanks for your kind comments.

I hadn't intended to shout - just had left the caps key on by error early in the morning. Its been changed now by the moderator although I notice THE ECONOMY header is still in caps.

I don't accept that it's a micro issue in any sense. The ARM deal has connotations for the larger economy which is why I became interested. I usually care less about micro issues, either in the social sense or economic sense.

I was attracted to offer my fourpence worth as I read a lot of similar comment that a lot of the time lacked any real logic or scrutiny. Anyway, if people would rather I didn't share my thoughts & analysis I'm not so bothered and can easily find plenty to occupy my time & energy otherwise.

[bodsier]

People can make their own decision as to whether they are interested or not. Your thread had 669 views Rook, that's not bad, do what you want.

[Lordship 516]

bodsier Wrote:

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> People can make their own decision as to whether

> they are interested or not. Your thread had 669

> views Rook, that's not bad, do what you want.

Thank you bodsier. By the way I'm Lordship 516 & have received 246 views ;)

[rendelharris]

DaveR Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> "Very impressionistic - glancing at the first page

> of The Lounge I can only see one similar thread

> and that wasn't started by Lordship!"

>

> "When 50% by volume* of the posts on a particular

> day..."

>

> Posts by volume is different from numbers of

> threads - that's why I said it.

>

> Ultimately, everyone on here does whatever they

> want, subject to very light touch regulation. I

> just have an aversion to big blocks of dense text

> econ analysis with confident accompanying

> conclusions. I can get that any time at work.

Sorry, I genuinely don't understand - what do you mean by "posts by volume"?

[DaveR]

"Sorry, I genuinely don't understand - what do you mean by "posts by volume"?"

You can gauge the activity on the forum by different measures. On a particular day, in a particular section, there might be 10 new threads started. On the same day, and including all the posts on both new and existing threads, there might be 200 new posts. The total volume of all the new posts might be 1000 lines of text. But 50 of the new posts might each consist of a single line of text, whereas three of them might in aggregate be 100 lines of text.

The simple point I was trying to make was that in the last couple of weeks, my impression was that a couple of posters had accounted for a lot of the new stuff (measured by volume) and that it was very homogenous - big chunks of economic analysis + commentary.

Obviously it's not up to me to dictate what people post, and evidently some people like it, and in any event it was probably just a slightly grumpy reaction from me than anything more serious. But, to put it into context, there is no shortage of this type of analysis - its constantly being churned out by all sorts of consultancies, think tanks etc. And also, in my world at least, it's used for specific things i.e. to inform current decision making where more information is almost always better than less. What it's never, ever used for is to provide an actual prediction of the future, other than in the most general and heavily qualified way.