Dulwich housing market

[micromacromonkey]

Realistic vendor here: We almost sold ours 12 months ago for 915 (chain collapsed, grrr), now we can't give it away at 800. I couldn't give the slightest toss how much we get for it in absolute terms, other than we need enough to stay in the area and upsize a bit (we have extra cash obv). Unfortunately our realism does not extend to other vendors who are still asking 1.1 for a 3 bed terrace with no garden.

One big problem is that we are overrun with tyre kickers and tourists. Do people really wander round houses all saturday just for something to do?

[DulwichLondoner]

The fact that asking prices are coming down means very little it could simply be that vendors and estate agents have totally unrealistic expectations; what we should compare are volumes (how many sales) and actual transaction prices. My impressions are that actual transactions are plummeting (fewer properties being sold) but prices are not - coming down a little, but not crashing; the two are of course related: more and more buyers realise they can't get the price they want, so decide to simply stay put and not move, or to rent the property out if it's a second property. Of course, it's just impressions, not hard data.

Also, the threshold beyond which the new stamp duty is more expensive than the old one is ca. ?950k. Not every property in ED is worth more than a million.

[SpringTime]

In response to the last three posts:

With a decline in foreign investment in property throughout London (not just in new flats on the river, and in high end commodity purchases in the priciest postcodes) of course things will change. The stamp surcharge from Osborne & co. caused the last spike pre April 2016. Since then things have crawled back. Hopefully less agents as a result and with less agents we should have more consistency in pricing. Joe Public still hasn't completely cottoned on to the fact that the reins have come in, and too many properties are still coming to market at the wrong price. But that won't last forever. This price drop is all very annoying for those trying to sell up and leave the capital, but since many of those practically won the pools simply by buying in London when the time was right I don't really care! For those buying and selling locally it's definitely a better market than it was a few years ago.

As someone with an interest in the business it can be said that transaction volumes are indeed down, though it depends which agents are involved. Only a few on the high street are doing any meaningful business. I think that the dynamic still favours the seller. There are less houses than buyers around. Problem for sellers is that too many buyers ~think~ that it's a buyers' market so they continue to shop around for bargains, and then when they do offer they offer low. This will carry on for a while. Probably for three years or so. Still, it's currently a better market than it was in boom time when transactions volumes were relatively low and every other property was subject to multiple bids (i.e. little supply to meet demand). That was a sad situation of many buyers failing to purchase and the only lucky vendors being those not needing a local onward purchase.

[DulwichLondoner]

The Daily Mash had a "story" on how, unless you are selling because you are moving to Nowhereshire where properties are much cheaper, house price inflation doesn't mean much as you still need to pay for a roof over your head:

http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/news/society/couple-makes-100k-selling-house-only-to-realise-they-have-to-buy-another-one-20170930136692

Like the realistic vendor above, I only care about the sale price of my property to the extent it allows me to buy another property in the area I want. Unfortunately, if you are in a chain, a single seller with unrealistic expectations is all that's needed for the whole chain to collapse...

To be honest, I am not sure if much is propagating from the super top end of the market to places like ED; after all, ED is still a place where people buy properties to live in or to rent out. I dooubt there are many multimillion villas in ED bought simply to park and launder foreign money.

Another interesting point, that applies to the whole of London, is what will happen when non-professional buy-to-let landlords will have to refinance; some of them will find that the economics no longer make much sense now that tax relief has been reduced substantially, and might be forced sellers.

Does any one know if there is any evidence of more properties being offered in the rental market?

[micromacromonkey]

DL actually I can see a link between central london prices and ED/PR. When they opened the overground it was like a tap was turned on, pouring Claphamites into the area. On our street 3 families we knew moved out (to Beckenham, Forest Hill etc), to be replaced by 3 sets of expecting parents who sold their flat in Clapham. This seemed to correlate with price increases. And of course the people buying Clapham 1 bed flats for 800k are displaced from Chelsea etc.

[micromacromonkey]

Springtime, it's a weird market. As I said we've almost sold our house twice in 15 months. First time, the very first person to see offered and almost bought. Second time, the second or third person to view did the same. This time: over 40 viewings! As I said these 40 have mostly been people who seem to enjoy the purgatory of traipsing round looking at houses on a Saturday morning without the least bit of interest in actually buying.

[bsand]

Not bad advice - we wanted to sell and move on and had 25 years of equity so were determined sellers - sold in 6 months - around 60 viewings 4 offers 2 repeated but lost their buyers and dropped 60k off the asking price in the end. The old adage a good buyer is better than a good price has never been truer.

[bsand]

Sold prices for the centre of ED since January from nethouseprices.

43 Crawthew Grove, London, SE22 9AD

Terraced, Freehold, Non-Newbuild

?817,500 2nd March 2018

Flat B 26 Crawthew Grove, London, SE22 9AB

Flat, Leasehold, Non-Newbuild

?462,000

593 sq ft

(?780 psf) 2nd March 2018

39 Rodwell Road, London, SE22 9LE

Semi Detached, Freehold, Non-Newbuild

?1,302,600

1,347 sq ft

(?967 psf) 1st March 2018

44a The Gardens, London, SE22 9QQ

Terraced, Freehold, Non-Newbuild

?1,290,000

2,476 sq ft

(?521 psf) 1st March 2018

Flat 3 45a Crystal Palace Road, London, SE22 9EX

Flat, Leasehold, Non-Newbuild

?454,500

713 sq ft

(?638 psf) 23rd February 2018

11 Archdale Road, London, SE22 9HL

Terraced, Freehold, Non-Newbuild

?755,000 23rd February 2018

47a Silvester Road, London, SE22 9PB

Terraced, Freehold, Non-Newbuild

?770,000

838 sq ft

(?919 psf) 23rd February 2018

13 Nutfield Road, London, SE22 9DG

Terraced, Freehold, Non-Newbuild

?730,000 19th February 2018

64 Crawthew Grove, London, SE22 9AB

Terraced, Freehold, Non-Newbuild

?907,500

1,207 sq ft

(?752 psf) 16th February 2018

27a Ulverscroft Road, London, SE22 9HF

Flat, Leasehold, Non-Newbuild

?630,000

463 sq ft

(?1,361 psf) 15th February 2018

Below Market Value Properties

107 Upland Road, London, SE22 0DB

Semi Detached, Freehold, Non-Newbuild

?1,090,000 15th February 2018

38 Hansler Road, East Dulwich, London, SE22 9DJ

Terraced, Freehold, Non-Newbuild

?907,500 15th February 2018

6a Worlingham Road, London, SE22 9HD

Flat, Leasehold, Non-Newbuild

?745,000

560 sq ft

(?1,331 psf) 15th February 2018

28 - 30 Upland Road, London, SE22 9EF

Freehold, Non-Newbuild

?650,000 13th February 2018

26 Upland Road, London, SE22 9EF

Freehold, Non-Newbuild

?325,000 13th February 2018

24 - 30 Upland Road, London, SE22 9EF

Freehold, Non-Newbuild

?325,000 13th February 2018

1c The Gardens, London, SE22 9QD

Flat, Leasehold, Non-Newbuild

?454,000 9th February 2018

60 St Aidans Road, London, SE22 0RW

Terraced, Freehold, Non-Newbuild

?620,010 8th February 2018

56 Silvester Road, London, SE22 9PB

Terraced, Freehold, Non-Newbuild

?660,000 2nd February 2018

48 Pellatt Road, East Dulwich, London, SE22 9JB

Terraced, Freehold, Non-Newbuild

?875,123 31st January 2018

31 Barry Road, London, SE22 0HR

Semi Detached, Freehold, Non-Newbuild

?1,100,000 5th January 2018

71 Whateley Road, London, SE22 9DE

Terraced, Freehold, Non-Newbuild

?886,000

1,410 sq ft

(?628 psf) 5th January 2018

[Mick Mac]

?1361 per square foot - Jeez

27a Ulverscroft Road, London, SE22 9HF

Flat, Leasehold, Non-Newbuild

?630,000

463 sq ft

(?1,361 psf) 15th February 2018

[Jules-and-Boo]

I've seen one property in Nunhead for ?3,000,000 which just looks like the seller has had very bad advice from the agents in terms of expected sale price.

Perhaps they have said that Nunhead is the 'other' Dulwich Village.

[robbin]

Reg Smeeton Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> In April the number of properties for sale in SE22

> on Rightmove was 220. It's now just over 300.

> Supply is going up and/or demand going down. My

> prediction in April was that prices would be 10%

> below their peak by this autumn (peak having been

> reached around Jan/Feb this year), and I'm

> sticking to it. In other words, a place that would

> have gone for ?1m at the start of 2016, will soon

> 'only' be going for ?900k.

Out of interest - Zoopla is telling me our house has risen in value by 8.1% since your prediction of a 10% fall 2 years ago.

[bsand]

That will be based on actual sales prices of nearby similar properties in terms of size / rooms etc. Condition is of course paramount if some minted maxed out have achieved top dollar and yours hasn't then the percentages are pretty meaningless - you need to be comparing like with like and no two properties are.

[bsand]

Someone has done well....

27a Ulverscroft Road ?433,000

London, SE22 9HF 2nd September 2016 and it has no sales record so must have been a private sale....

[DulwichLondoner]

robbin Wrote:

>

> Out of interest - Zoopla is telling me our house

> has risen in value by 8.1% since your prediction

> of a 10% fall 2 years ago.

That doesn't mean anything. I have seen quite a few properties on sale at prices lower than Zoopla's "valuation". These automated valuations can give a broad indication of the trend in an area, but the margin of error for specific properties is HUUUGE.

Also, the value of an item is what people are willing to pay for it. You may think that your property or used car is worth a lot, but what you think is irrelevant - it all depends on what buyers are willing to pay!!

[Reg Smeeton]

robbin Wrote:

>

> Out of interest - Zoopla is telling me our house

> has risen in value by 8.1% since your prediction

> of a 10% fall 2 years ago.

I really wouldn't trust those Zoopla estimates, especially at the moment. I'm not an estate agent (thank goodness) but if you wanted to sell your house in the next month, I reckon you'd get less for it than you would have got when the market was at its hottest two years ago. Unless you've done ?50k of improvements to it in the meantime, of course.

[alice]

bsand Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> Someone has done well....

>

> 27a Ulverscroft Road ?433,000

> London, SE22 9HF 2nd September 2016 and it has no

> sales record so must have been a private sale

A side and rear extension turns a small one bed into a spacious 2 bed so yeah there?s profit but

[JohnL]

Reg Smeeton Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> robbin Wrote:

> >

> > Out of interest - Zoopla is telling me our

> house

> > has risen in value by 8.1% since your

> prediction

> > of a 10% fall 2 years ago.

>

> I really wouldn't trust those Zoopla estimates,

> especially at the moment. I'm not an estate agent

> (thank goodness) but if you wanted to sell your

> house in the next month, I reckon you'd get less

> for it than you would have got when the market was

> at its hottest two years ago. Unless you've done

> ?50k of improvements to it in the meantime, of

> course.

Zoopla was saying a fall in the last 3 months for my block - now there are rises for all dates .

So it's saying a big rise in the last month or so ? Where do they get that data ?

[Reg Smeeton]

To take the first random example I looked at:

Number 55 Fellbrigg Road http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-54183255.html (lovely looking house by the way).

- Zoopla estimates the value as ?1,317,000

- The house actually went on the market on 2nd May at ?1,200,000, which is roughly 10% lower than Zoopla's estimate.

- And since most houses usually go for at least 5% less than the asking price, you're looking at Zoopla's value estimate being 15-20% above the actual market rate for that house.

Of course it'll be different for every home. But still.

UPDATE: 15th July 2018 - this property still for sale, now at ?1,175,000. Zoopla suggests the owners bought it ten years ago for ?745k. It wouldn't surprise me if it ultimately sells for something like ?1,000,000.

UPDATE: March 2021 - No.55 Fellbrigg never sold. Based on prices of houses currently on the market, perhaps the seller would get ?1.1m for it now.