Dulwich housing market

[Holmdeneresi]

I'd be interested to hear some informed views on the Dulwich housing market post Brexit. Sure, estate agents will tell you it's business as usual but i'd like to know what's REALLY going on in the market. Has anyone reading this forum withdrawn an offer or reduced it as a result of Brexit? Are developers offering big incentives on new builds? Or are we seeing foreigners take advantage of the weak pound and buying up stock? Any estate agents on here willing to give a REAL view under the cover of anonymity?

[Jakido]

I know of two people who have pulled out deals in se22 & se15 since brexit.

[alice]

of course people are more nervous sales will slow but not much sign [yet] of lowered prices. Which means more demand for rental properties.

[Earl Aelfheah]

https://www.theguardian.com/money/2016/jul/14/housing-sales-forecast-to-fall-sharply-this-summer-after-brexit-vote

[heartblock]

The guy who offered on ours.

He offered less than the asking price before his house was even on the market and he badgered us and the estate agent to take ours off the market so no one else could offer on it.

We kept ours on the market and had another offer at the same price but waited for the original guy to give him a chance as he was so super-keen.

Our house is an older Victorian house with an untanked Victorian cellar, that is occasionally a bit wet on the slate floor, but has never flooded in the 30 years of living there and there is no damp damage. It has guarantees and wood treated recently. He viewed our flat 5 times and was told on each occasion the cellar was not tanked.

He eventually had an offer and we accepted his.

He pushed for an early completion, so we arranged to stay with friends.

After the survey he wanted extra off the original offer price because the cellar was not tanked

After Brexit he pulled out of the offer 1 month before his proposed moving in date.

[Henry_17]

rahrahrah Wrote:

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> https://www.theguardian.com/money/2016/jul/14/hous

> ing-sales-forecast-to-fall-sharply-this-summer-aft

> er-brexit-vote

Lol at the universal reduction in supply. "We'lol improve our IRR by waiting the knowable amount of time until the market returns to our psychologically anchored level!"

[Reg Smeeton]

In April the number of properties for sale in SE22 on Rightmove was 220. It's now just over 300. Supply is going up and/or demand going down. My prediction in April was that prices would be 10% below their peak by this autumn (peak having been reached around Jan/Feb this year), and I'm sticking to it. In other words, a place that would have gone for ?1m at the start of 2016, will soon 'only' be going for ?900k.

[????]

Short term people are worried.

Long term (and medium):

People in the UK obsessed with home ownership

Population forecast to grow

Economy still forecast to grow in the medium term

Housing stock (supply) woefully below demand

Interest rates not going up anytime soon

Credit restrictions (via capital ratios) on banks recently loosened

Housing just got 10% cheaper for foreign investors

Short term uncertainties and some kind of collective hysteria about the UK and London undermining the fundamentals is my opinion. If prices drop 30% plenty of people will jump at the market and prices will recover.

In 2008 the global financial system approached Armageddon - house prices plummeted...can anyone remind us how long before prices in London recovered?

If you need to sell right now you are probably going to take some sort of haircut but beyond that all will be OK is my opinion

[LondonMix]

Is the London population still forecast to grow though? Surely that will be a function of London jobs growth and UK immigration policy post Brexit. Before the 1990s, it's worth remembering London's population shrank for nearly 3 decades straight.

There is nothing inevitable about long term population growth in London or the UK.

Also, there is far too much supply in the upper end of the market in prime central London due to over building based on foreign demand for investment flats. For almost 18 months, the high end of the market has had virtually no transactions as there are no forced sellers but buyers refuse to pay asking price. However, if real discounting begins in the high end of the market (which the FT today has suggested has begun post Brexit), the upper end of the mainstream market (750-1,000 quid per square foot) will suffer as well.

Below 750 quid per square foot will be fine in the medium terms as its still very under supplied and completely insulated from the higher end market.

I have friends who post Brexit pulled out of a deal in Honor Oak and are buying more cheaply in Nunhead. If you look online, several homes in SE22 have had to reduce prices and still haven't sold. It is definitely not business as usual.

Only time will tell what house prices will do around here.

[DovertheRoad]

Spot on post from ???? above. Agree 100%.

The data shows that best time to buy in ED post-2008 was April 2009 when with some looking you could get a 20% discount on 2007 prices. That drop recovered almost immediately over the next 2 years and then accelerated massively in Q1, 2014... way beyond where prices were in 2007. It has since slowed again but even pre-Brexit was always going to do so.

I disagree with Reg above that peak in SE22 was Jan/Feb this year. I'd say late April/May from the valuations I was involved with. But agree with Reg that there will be a short term fall and 10% can't be too far off the mark.

[DovertheRoad]

Pass the cheese will you Anthony?

[strae]

And the port...

DovertheRoad Wrote:

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> Pass the cheese will you Anthony?

[bsand]

Took mine off the market just after Brexit - Winkworth's said people are looking for 5 -10 % of what they consider as fair pre-Brexit pricing. Has been a positive for us as we got the house ready for market and did a lot of overdue repairs. Looking at renting out a spare room for Mon-Fri let so happy to stay for the medium / long term as we are looking to downsize and release some cash. In the long run who knows enouh storm clouds gathering all over the place to expect a lot of rain...

Friends in Turnham Green got 200k off a 1.4m property post Brexit or they would have walked.

Here's one pundit predicting 30% falls...

https://www.theguardian.com/money/2016/jul/18/brexit-could-cut-london-house-prices-by-more-than-30-says-bank

[mikeb]

I'm hearing that estate agents are preparing for large-scale redundancies, which indicates that they too believe this is a serious turning point. Rentals continue to be good business, for now.

I think many people in the City (not just bankers, including lawyers, accountants, insurance, etc) will think twice about taking on outsize mortgages if they think prices are going to fall by 10-20%. It's maybe ok if you are confident about finding another job in the event of redundancy. But it seems that employment patterns in the City could change substantially over the next five years.

[Jeremy]

mikeb Wrote:

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> I'm hearing that estate agents are preparing for

> large-scale redundancies, which indicates that

> they too believe this is a serious turning point.

I think you're crediting estate agents with FAR too much expertise here...

[mikeb]

Maybe Jeremy, but I am hearing that one of them on Lordship Lane is about to sack a fair chunk of people across all its branches

[bsand]

I should have sold 6 - 9 months ago when rubbish was flying off the shelves quite a few people bought lemons then and are finding fixing them probably a great deal more expensive than they could have imagined.

[Holmdeneresi]

Just noticed that 2 houses around the ?1.5m mark have gone up for sale post Brexit on our road (Holmdene Avenue) to add to the one that was already on the market. This is very unusual as historically we see just 1 house a year come up for sale on this road. Perhaps it's just coincidental timing with Brexit or perhaps they foresee dark clouds ahead and are rushing to pull the rip cord?!? A garden flat originally listed early April, and sold in May, is also back on the market having, I assume, fallen though.

[spark67]

A work colleague was advised by solicitor to pull out of completing on a property in Bermondsey just after Brexit as Mortgage company got cold feet and wasn't going to guarantee original mortgage offer, so they have and are going to rent until situation stabalises and they can forage into the market again.

A neighbour in ED had house for sale before Brexit, but after, viewings disappeared, so they are now going to rent their property out until they know where things are heading ... it seems its going to be a stalemate until people know what the outcome of our exit is going to be and the full economic effects are going to be on the housing market.

[CBee]

I was moving ahead with a purchase in the area pre-Brexit and the vendors pulled out in May citing 'market conditions' and wanted to refurb and put the property on for more. ( I belive because the prices in the area had surged since January due to stamp duty changes).

I restarted my search again in May and saw a lot of properties and offered on a couple but my offers were rejected for being too low (about GBP20K-30K under the asking). When Brexit happened I decided to stop looking and have gone into a rental property for the next 6 months whilst the market calms down and have had emails from the agents that I offered through telling me that the vendors will now accept my offers and of the approx 15 places I viewed, almost all have come down in price by at least GBP25-30K (I was looking around GBP450K). This drop is possibly also because the prices were over-inflated to begin with as in the last 2 years these postcodes have surged by about GBP100K.

[Abe_froeman]

One thing you can always be sure of, whatever the actual state of the market, is that those looking to buy will talk prices down and those looking to sell will talk prices up.

[LondonMix]

That's a touch cynical. During boom times I find plenty of buyers on here in despair complaining of how high prices are.

Also, as an owner (but not looking to sell) I can't see how prices won't at least temporarily have been effected in this area.

[poppet27]

This is ridiculous. Dulwich is a family orientated area where people usually live in the houses they buy. There is still high demand due to lack of housing, and you are simply not going to see the market crash. Unless people are buying to then flip the house again in six months then maybe you've got a point about not making tonnes of profit. But buying a home that you can live in for several years not only means you're putting your ? to good use but will generally always improve in value round here.

Large super-houses may have cooled off in price but we needed that. This talk of flats and modest houses dropping by 10% is nonsense. It's just speculation breeding speculation.

If I was buying now, I'd expect small to medium places to be 1% or maybe 2% cheaper than they were at the beginning of 2016 and I'd be okay with that. To me, now is actually a perfect time to buy. Take advantage of the more sensible pricing and the amazing mortgage rates coming up.

To anyone who is midway through a purchase - go for it. My most senior colleagues and peers have crunched the numbers, done their forecasts and it suggests in East Dulwich you will not have a problem making money on your purchase. As much as we'd love to have a bash at the housing market, SE22 is still a great bet for investing what you have. Plus we get to live in this amazing neighbourhood which we are all so lucky to be part of. Amen!

[LondonMix]

Your most senior colleagues have analysed the housing market in East Dulwich? That only makes sense if you work for an estate agent.

When people are uncertain, they hold off on major decisions. People may be more nervous about basic things like job security. A shift like that in demand in and of itself is more than enough to reduce prices in SE22, regardless of how nice you feel the area is. Long term, I don't think the area is going into terminal decline but a short term price adjustment is happening all over London.

[Jeremy]

LondonMix Wrote:

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> Your most senior colleagues have analysed the

> housing market in East Dulwich? That only makes

> sense if you work for an estate agent.

An estate agent is pretty much the last person I'd trust to forecast anything!