New Prime Minister and outlook - factual update

[Rook]

Eughh- ANOTHER thread related to the Referendum!!. yes yes I know (sorry), but for those interested here is a factual update in terms of the early ballot results for a new leader and - just for clarity - their stated intial outlook on some of the key issues

BALLOTING HAS BEGUN, AND ONLY 3 CANDIDATES REMAIN STANDING=

Basic update first : Theresa May came out top in the first ballot among Conservative Party MPs to find Cameron?s successor, as was widely expected, with support from 165 MPs. Andrea Leadsom was in second place with the support of 66 MPs, despite previously being seen as an outsider in the race. Michael Gove, previously seen as second favourite, came in third place with the support of 48 MPs. Liam Fox came in last, with the support of only 16 MPs, and has been eliminated from the race, while Stephen Crabb, attracting 34 backers and coming fourth, decided to withdraw. Although both Liam Fox and Stephen Crabb have thrown their backing behind Theresa May, it is yet to be seen whether their respective supporters will follow their lead. In particular, while the policy stance of Stephen Crabb was more akin to Theresa May?s, Liam Fox?s policy stance was more akin to Andrea Leadsom?s, so it seems likely that some of his backers could support her instead. The next and final ballot will be held on Thursday 7 July before the final two candidates are put forward to the 150,000 Conservative Party members.

SUPPORT AMONG CONSERVATIVE PARTY MEMBERS HAS CLEARLY CENTRED ON THE TWO FEMALE CANDIDATES

A ConservativeHome survey, published 4 July, puts Andrea Leadsom marginally in front at 38%, with Theresa May just behind at 37%, and the remaining male candidates all below 15%. A YouGov poll released 5 July in The Times, meanwhile, puts Theresa May comfortably ahead of Leadsom were they to both face each other in the grassroots membership ballot (May: 63%; Leadsom: 32%; Undecided: 5%). If either female candidate were to face Michael Gove in the membership ballot however, the female candidate would comfortably win

ALL REMAINING CANDIDATES HAVE COMMITTED TO ENDING THE FREE MOVEMENT OF PEOPLE

This is at odds with gaining access to the European single market given EU27 leaders? comments of late. However, Andrea Leadsom who is gaining popularity among the grassroots membership, has stated that she is less concerned about the UK gaining access to the single market, while Michael Gove wishes to end EU budgetary contributions, suggesting he too is less concerned about access; as non-EU member states are still required to provide budgetary contributions to access the European single market. Even though Theresa May has committed to maintaining free trade of goods and services between the UK and the EU, she has stated that ending the free movement of people is ?non-negotiable?. Moreover, May has refused to guarantee rights of EU citizens in the UK unless EU counterparts commit to guaranteeing rights of UK citizens in the EU. The other candidates, however, have unconditionally guaranteed the rights of EU citizens already living in the UK. Conditional on EU27 leaders and Conservative Party leadership candidates not giving way with regard to free movement of people in order to access the European single market, then it appears that an EEA-style agreement is seemingly less and less likely.

THE TIMING OF WHEN TO TRIGGER ARTICLE 50 REMAINS IN CONTENTION

Theresa May does not believe it should be invoked until the UK is sure of its negotiating position with the EU, and hence does believe it will be invoked before the end of this year. Andrea Leadsom, however, believes the process should be as short as possible, and has committed to invoking it as soon she becomes PM (i.e., September). The position of Leadsom would likely cause the least tension among EU27 leaders who seem to wish for the UK to not unnecessarily delay in triggering Article 50 and beginning the negotiation process

TIMING OF ARTICLE50=

Tmay= Not before the end of this year

ALeadsom= As soon as she becomes PM (ie Sep 16)

MGove= No later than the end of this year

POLICY POSITIONS OF THE REMAINING CANDIDATES

- All candidates have stated a committment to exit the European union

- None of the candidates are in favour of another referendum or snap general election

- As above, all candidates have expressed a committment to end free movement of people

- FISCAL STANCE=

=TMay has pledged to end the gov committment to a fiscal surplus by end of parliament, and intends to avoid any tax rises.

=ALeadsom has committed to reducing the gov deficit, and pledged that the focus of any tax cuts will be on the poorest in society

=MGove will not contribute to the EU budget, instead allowing the UK to spend the proceeds

-NEGOTIATING STRATEGY=

=TMay wants to end free movement of people, maintain tariff free trade between UK and EU, will not guarantee rights of EU citizens in the UK unless the rights of UK citizens in the EU are guaranteed, and will create a new department to deal with exiting the EU and focusssing on trade negotiations

=ALeadsom wants to end free movement of people, is not concerned about access to EEA, insists we push for Northern powerhouse project, pledged to focus on poorest in society, will guarantee rights of UK and EU citizens, will use some of EU budgetary contribution in NHS, and also promises a simpler tax system.

=MGove wants to end free movement of people and introduce an australian style points system for immigration and bring numbers down

Right thats it. Id like to sincerely congratulate you if you made it this far

[TwoScoops]

Interesting, thanks

[Robert Poste's Child]

Gove's out.

[Loz]

Gove - sneaky nutter. Leadsome - scary nutter. It's come to a disturbing point where Theresa May is the emerging as the sane one.

[Robert Poste's Child]

Radio London now agog with 'how do you feel about having a female PM' discussion, which is a bit disappointing as you'd hope that in 21st Century Britain, 30-whatever years after Thatcher and with Europe's strongest leader also a woman, we could discuss the candidates without their selection being qualified by being female. For what it's worth, of the available and interested candidates I think they chose the right two.

[Green Goose]

Which one is the more likely to morph into another Thatcher?

[JoeLeg]

I'm no fan of Theresa May, but at this time we need experience and Leadsom does not have it. She should do a backroom deal with May to get a prime position in the Cabinet in return for dropping out. Five or ten years from now she'll be a much more plausible PM (not saying I'd vote for her, but recognising that she will likely have the experience by them to be capable of the job).

Very glad Gove is out.

I think May is the one we need at this time. I doubt I'll like half the stuff she does, but I kind of trust her not to do anything stupid during Brexit negotiations. I think she'll be just the right kind of hard head we need.

[JoeLeg]

Green Goose Wrote:

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> Which one is the more likely to morph into another

> Thatcher?

In pure 'Thatcherite' terms, provably Leadsom. But I reckon the Tory party would be wary of that. Whatever ones personal opinions of her, they agree that she threw collective Cabinet responsibility out he window by the late 80's, and I don't think they want to return to that. I also think both May and Leadsom wil want to avoid the inevitable comparison.

If you mean in terms of clarity of purpose, taking no crap and pursuing what they feel is the right path for Britain, well, a) let's be honest, we'll never see anyone like Thatcher again, and b) I reckon they both will be fierce advocates for what they see as the right path, so that could be considered a similarity, but they also will have learnt from what went wrong with Thatcher, and so on answer I guess I would say neither, as they both will need and want to be seen as their own person, and not some kind of heir to Thatcher.

[Robert Poste's Child]

Agreed; May seems preferable. While she has some attributes I'm not keen on, these aren't normal circs and she's shown herself capable of handling a crisis coolly, firmly and calmly. She's also a proven survivor, and we do need to be able to count on whoever it is not to jump ship when things get uncomfortable (Cameron, Boris, Farage...).

Will Gove have to resign now? After going against Cameron and then turning against Boris, surely he's too much of a risk to the party.

[JohnL]

Sounds like Leadsom would try and repeal gay marriage law.

[miga]

Robert Poste's Child Wrote:

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> Britain, 30-whatever years after Thatcher and with

> Europe's strongest leader also a woman, we could

> discuss the candidates without their selection

> being qualified by being female.

I could be way off but I see this as a symptom of Americanisation of politics here. I think 20 years ago it would have been a bit meh and not a point of particular interest. Now it is. Meanwhile, they seem to be having apoplexies across the pond about the possibility of a female president and vp.

[Loz]

Robert Poste's Child Wrote:

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> Will Gove have to resign now? After going against Cameron and then turning against Boris, surely

> he's too much of a risk to the party.

As MP or minister? Not sure he will resign from the cabinet, but the likelihood of him being a cabinet minister to either of the candidates seems to have dropped markedly over the past week.

I can't see him resigning as an MP.

[DaveR]

The think I like about T May is that the cops hate her, and she doesn't care. It shows that she's had a proper look and noticed that (although still very good in many ways, and genuinely full of decent individuals) the Old Bill still have serious problems re routine bad practices and abuse of power, petty and not so petty. That's good in itself, but even more significantly it shows that she is not a prisoner of her background, which is very old school shires Tory.

[Robert Poste's Child]

After the last few years of over-confident Bullingdon boys, her background may have more popular appeal. Another reference point to Thatcher.

[Loz]

Robert Poste's Child Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> Radio London now agog with 'how do you feel about having a female PM' discussion, which is a bit

> disappointing as you'd hope that in 21st Century Britain, 30-whatever years after Thatcher and with

> Europe's strongest leader also a woman, we could discuss the candidates without their selection

> being qualified by being female.

Well, if you can get the Guardian to shut up about the candidates' gender for a few days, good luck to you.

[rendelharris]

Robert Poste's Child Wrote:

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> Radio London now agog with 'how do you feel about

> having a female PM' discussion, which is a bit

> disappointing as you'd hope that in 21st Century

> Britain, 30-whatever years after Thatcher and with

> Europe's strongest leader also a woman, we could

> discuss the candidates without their selection

> being qualified by being female. For what it's

> worth, of the available and interested candidates

> I think they chose the right two.

Well, I think given that nobody under the age of 47 has ever had the chance to vote for a woman as PM, and that nobody under the age of about 35 will even remember having a woman as PM, it's only natural that it will be a topic for discussion, no?

I do hope they choose May, who seems the best Tory to steady the ship. Leadsom appears to be awful in so many ways, vain, populist, preening and occasionally downright lying - her interview on World at One today was a car crash of evasion, "I don't recall" etc. I enjoyed Eddie Mair's question to one of her supporters on PM this evening: "Has Andrea Leadsom already changed her CV to say she's Prime Minister? Does she know who she is and what she's done? She managed to vote both for and against gay marriage..."

[Robert Poste's Child]

Re Andrea Leadsom's comments on gay marriage, apparently she thinks it should be redefined as a Christian sacrament between a man and a woman only. Sounds odd: gay couples aside, this seems to have implications for civil marriage, as well as for married people of other faiths.

She has also talked about repealing the hunting bill on the grounds she represents a mainly rural community where foxes are a nuisance (she should visit this area - getting tired of scraping up fox poo recently). Baffling to think there's anyone who still genuinely thinks hunting is an efficient way to control foxes.

[Earl Aelfheah]

Both are terrible imo. Whoever wins, we need a general election soon, in order to give them a mandate. We are getting not just a new PM, but effectively a completely different manifesto. It can't be chosen by a couple of hundred MPs and then around 100,000 party members. Taking back control eh? Whoever gets in has the opportunity to completely rewrite our legal and regulatory system.

[Rook]

While the You Gov poll released on 5 July in The Times had put Theresa May comfortably ahead of Leadsom, a ConservativeHome survey, published on 4 July, put Andrea Leadsom marginally in front

Since then, support for Andrea Leadsom appears to have gained momentum (according to the website ConservativeHome), and a membership rally took place in her favour in Parliament Square yesterday. However, Im sure youve seen Leadsom has also come under increasing scrutiny of her background and CV, with some former colleagues rebuking career claims she has made, according to The Guardian.

While this may deter some members from voting for her, it could equally be seen by some as tactics to call into question her reputation, and therefore in fact strengthen membership support for her.

More importantly, given the grassroots members are typically regarded as very eurosceptic, and have historically chosen the most eurosceptic candidate on the ballot, it would therefore not be surprising to see Theresa May emphasise her eurosceptic credentials over the upcoming campaign period to garner support among a group of people who could otherwise be expected to opt for the more eurosceptic Andrea Leadsom based purely on precedence

[miga]

> Taking back control eh?

It was a very powerful slogan. Oh, to have been a fly on the wall in that meeting. I'd love to see the ones that ended up in the bin. "Brexit, for the real you", "Brexit: feel lighter, be happier", "Take a step into the great unknown"....

[JohnL]

Robert Poste's Child Wrote:

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> Re Andrea Leadsom's comments on gay marriage,

> apparently she thinks it should be redefined as a

> Christian sacrament between a man and a woman

> only. Sounds odd: gay couples aside, this seems to

> have implications for civil marriage, as well as

> for married people of other faiths.

>

> She has also talked about repealing the hunting

> bill on the grounds she represents a mainly rural

> community where foxes are a nuisance (she should

> visit this area - getting tired of scraping up fox

> poo recently). Baffling to think there's anyone

> who still genuinely thinks hunting is an efficient

> way to control foxes.

She meant Liam Fox.

[JohnL]

Rook Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> While the You Gov poll released on 5 July in The

> Times had put Theresa May comfortably ahead of

> Leadsom, a ConservativeHome survey, published on 4

> July, put Andrea Leadsom marginally in front

>

> Since then, support for Andrea Leadsom appears to

> have gained momentum (according to the website

> ConservativeHome), and a membership rally took

> place in her favour in Parliament Square

> yesterday. However, Im sure youve seen Leadsom has

> also come under increasing scrutiny of her

> background and CV, with some former colleagues

> rebuking career claims she has made, according to

> The Guardian.

>

> While this may deter some members from voting for

> her, it could equally be seen by some as tactics

> to call into question her reputation, and

> therefore in fact strengthen membership support

> for her.

>

> More importantly, given the grassroots members are

> typically regarded as very eurosceptic, and have

> historically chosen the most eurosceptic candidate

> on the ballot, it would therefore not be

> surprising to see Theresa May emphasise her

> eurosceptic credentials over the upcoming campaign

> period to garner support among a group of people

> who could otherwise be expected to opt for the

> more eurosceptic Andrea Leadsom based purely on

> precedence

That rally was apparently hilarious

What do we want ANDREA LEADSOM when do we want her NOW

[steveo]

miga Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> > Taking back control eh?

>

> It was a very powerful slogan. Oh, to have been a

> fly on the wall in that meeting. I'd love to see

> the ones that ended up in the bin. "Brexit, for

> the real you", "Brexit: feel lighter, be happier",

> "Take a step into the great unknown"....

'Brexit: Free puppies'

[miga]

"Brexit: like a box of chocolates".

[Robert Poste's Child]

Boris has endorsed Leadsom. That's her out, then.