MP details please

[Green Goose]

rendelharris Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> Green Goose wrote:

>

> >Germans dont drive many Jags and RR's

>

> In 2015 Europe was Jaguar Land Rover's largest

> market with over 110,000 sales, representing over

> 25% of total global sales, and sales in Germany

> rose by 28%. So, basically, you're utterly

> wrong.

>

> http://www.jaguarlandrover.com/gl/en/investor-rela

> tions/news/2016/01/08/jaguar-land-rover-reports-st

> rong-full-year-global-sales-for-2015/

Read my post please.

I said "Germans dont drive many Jags and RR's" but you have said ""EUROPE" was Jaguar Land Rovers largest market". There is a big difference.

Remember, France =wine whilst Germany = cars when it comes to targetted negotiations. Please keep up.

[Green Goose]

Loz Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> The problem you face with that strategy, GG, is

> that - AFAIK - each of the 27 EU countries has a

> veto on whatever trade deal is settled. And, as

> we know, you have to do the trade deal with the EU

> - not each individual country.

Sorry Loz, but effectively the EU doesnt work quite like that in reality. The EU Commission is the most powerful entity there and they are effectively controlled by the innerr clique of 6 ie France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands , Belgium and Luxembrg. Out of this 6, France and Germany hold the clout. If Merker doesnt want it, then it doesnt get through. The other 22 are just marginal players.

[rendelharris]

Green Goose Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

>

> Read my post please.

>

> I said "Germans dont drive many Jags and RR's" but

> you have said ""EUROPE" was Jaguar Land Rovers

> largest market". There is a big difference.

>

> Remember, France =wine whilst Germany = cars when

> it comes to targetted negotiations. Please keep up.

Read my post please, JLR sales in Germany increased by 28% last year. Please keep up. You can say you're going to have "targetted negotiations" as much as you like, won't happen. EU rules forbid separate agreements between individual member states with outside entities, unless the EU actually collapses you cannot have them.

[Green Goose]

Lordship 516 Wrote:

Now they are left with

> no one in control & the EU will never compromise

> on the four main principles including free

> movement - that will have to be on a mutual basis

> also. It will either be all in or all out.

The EU is in terminal decline. Brexit was the first step.

It will take time but other nations will exit.

The EU will compromise on free movement in due course. It will eventually revert to a "Common Market" for trade.

[JoeLeg]

Green Goose Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> rendelharris Wrote:

> --------------------------------------------------

> -----

> > Green Goose wrote:

> >

> > >Germans dont drive many Jags and RR's

> >

> > In 2015 Europe was Jaguar Land Rover's largest

> > market with over 110,000 sales, representing

> over

> > 25% of total global sales, and sales in Germany

> > rose by 28%. So, basically, you're utterly

> > wrong.

> >

> >

> http://www.jaguarlandrover.com/gl/en/investor-rela

>

> >

> tions/news/2016/01/08/jaguar-land-rover-reports-st

>

> > rong-full-year-global-sales-for-2015/

>

> Read my post please.

>

> I said "Germans dont drive many Jags and RR's" but

> you have said ""EUROPE" was Jaguar Land Rovers

> largest market". There is a big difference.

>

> Remember, France =wine whilst Germany = cars when

> it comes to targetted negotiations. Please keep

> up.

HAHAHAHA! You really think it'll be that easy? That it'll come down to threatening the French over Chardonnay and Pinot Noir?

You're deluded

"The EU will compromise on free movement in due course. It will eventually revert to a "Common Market" for trade."

Well, you seem to know the future better than people like Mark Carney, Boris Johnson, Theresa May, Angela Merkel and all the rest, so I guess that's all settled. Thanks for telling us exactly what the future holds. While you're at it could I have the winners at Ascot and future share prices? Thanks.

[JoeLeg]

Green Goose Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> Loz Wrote:

> --------------------------------------------------

> -----

> > The problem you face with that strategy, GG, is

> > that - AFAIK - each of the 27 EU countries has

> a

> > veto on whatever trade deal is settled. And,

> as

> > we know, you have to do the trade deal with the

> EU

> > - not each individual country.

>

> Sorry Loz, but effectively the EU doesnt work

> quite like that in reality. The EU Commission is

> the most powerful entity there and they are

> effectively controlled by the innerr clique of 6

> ie France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands , Belgium

> and Luxembrg. Out of this 6, France and Germany

> hold the clout. If Merker doesnt want it, then it

> doesnt get through. The other 22 are just marginal

> players

This is so stupid I can't even be bothered to argue with it.

[Green Goose]

rendelharris Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> Green Goose wrote:

>

> >Germans dont drive many Jags and RR's

>

> In 2015 Europe was Jaguar Land Rover's largest

> market with over 110,000 sales, representing over

> 25% of total global sales, and sales in Germany

> rose by 28%. So, basically, you're utterly

> wrong.

>

> http://www.jaguarlandrover.com/gl/en/investor-rela

> tions/news/2016/01/08/jaguar-land-rover-reports-st

> rong-full-year-global-sales-for-2015/

Look again. Your link says that sales to Europe was up 28% last year. No mention of Germany! My turn to say "Do keep up" Again.

Also, also up 28% from what quantity to what quantity? Tell me please.

Believe me, JLR sales to Germany are very modest. BMW, Audi and Merc export far more to the UK than JLR sell to Germany.

Forget Europe overall, just think France and Germany and put the squeeze on them. The rest will follow their lead.

[rendelharris]

Here you go:

http://www.coventrytelegraph.net/news/coventry-news/jaguar-land-rover-breaks-global-10704601

Sales records were also broken in Australia, FRANCE, GERMANY, Korea and the US.

None of which, as pointed out above, makes your peculiar conceit that we will be able to negotiate with Europe country by country, any less absurd.

[Loz]

JoeLeg Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> Green Goose Wrote:

> --------------------------------------------------

> > Loz Wrote:

> > --------------------------------------------------

> > > The problem you face with that strategy, GG, is that - AFAIK - each of the 27 EU countries has a

> > > veto on whatever trade deal is settled. And, as we know, you have to do the trade deal with the EU

> > > - not each individual country.

> >

> > Sorry Loz, but effectively the EU doesnt work quite like that in reality. The EU Commission is

> > the most powerful entity there and they are effectively controlled by the innerr clique of 6

> > ie France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands , Belgium and Luxembrg. Out of this 6, France and Germany

> > hold the clout. If Merker doesnt want it, then it doesnt get through. The other 22 are just marginal

> > players

>

>

> This is so stupid I can't even be bothered to argue with it.

My thoughts exactly. I think we've actually found someone more obstinate in the face of the most obvious facts than Foxy!

I see GG didn't bother to read the FullFacts link I gave to him/her in the "Farage resigns" thread, which would have given him/her a bit more understanding of the EU. And he/she is still claiming "the EU Commission is the most powerful entity" - doubly amusing since Merkel isn't on the Commission, she's on the Council.

GG doesn't understand the different EU entities; doesn't understand the veto; doesn't understand qualified/weighted majorities.

[Lordship 516]

GG

"Remember, France =wine whilst Germany = cars when it comes to targetted negotiations. Please keep up."

France exports 12.5% of its wine to the UK and the percentage has been dropping progressively for the last 10 years as UK buyers have already been opting for cheaper New World wines. On the other hand the French have been increasing their sales to the US, Germany, China, Japan, Canada, Singapore, HK, Switzerland. The French strategy is not to compete and only sell at the highest vintage levels & lowest plonk levels. They are already resigned to dropping UK sales.

57% of UK car exports [44% of total production] go to Europe - so how do you resolve this little conundrum when you tell the Germans to stuff off ?

"The other 22 are just marginal players."

This shows how much you really don't understand.

The UK is between a rock & a hard place - threatening main players who you want as allies & trading partners is not the way to win for UK jobs.

[Green Goose]

Apart for the 110,000 units for ALL of Europe in 2015, you quote only percentages. Germany was up 28% but from what to what?

JLR sales to the China region (China=HK) were 122,010 in 2014 some 10% behind all of Europe. During this same period, Europe was 86,310.

http://www.jaguarlandrover.com/gl/en/investor-relations/news/2015/01/12/jaguar-land-rover-december-1415-sales/

[Lordship 516]

GG

Car sales in China crashed in 2016 - down by 44% which started in Sept 2015 due to a crisis of confidence in the economy which has yet to sort itself out.

Individual company statistics are important but more important are jobs - 44% of all car production in the UK goes to Europe; 90% of all Toyota UK production goes to Europe; 80% of all Nissan UK production goes to Europe - these companies have no particular loyalty to any country abut their workers do & need to keep their jobs plus the other jobs that are in the supply chain here. The MINI is the second most produced car in the country; 175,000 MINIs are produced in the UK with 34,000 being sold here. Of the balance the US Germany China France & Italy were the top export markets; however there are MINI plants in Austria, the Netherlands and Asia. Arguably we are more vulnerable that the Europeans on the issue of car production/sales as we will in many more sectors.

You ignore the fact that the EU has 27 countries that can resolve supply/demand issues & even after any agreement we will be vulnerable to import substitution pressures from within the EU as they will want to keep as much economic activity within the EU region. We have very few unique products to offer [Rolls Royce engines is one] However there are complex commercial relationships shared with the EU - Airbus, Finmeccanica etc EU space Agency & all of these will be in play with UK jobs at stake. The UK has a lot of specialist expertise but much of this can be replicated elsewhere or moved with the human resource following. Only a mutually measured approach with each side giving respect to the other; otherwise there would be an economic bloodbath & all will suffer.

We export 45% of all our goods to the EU & they export 16% of their goods to us. The EU [ex UK] exports something over 600 billion euro in services, while the UK imports only about 40-45 billion euro in services from the rest of the EU but exports about 65 billion Euro of services to the EU. Hopefully we can achieve a mutually beneficial agreement on car sales with the EU & the same across all industries.

Hopefully also we can also reach agreement on the migration of workers to & from the EU. The EU is the world's biggest exporter of manufactured goods and services, and it is the biggest import market for over 100 countries. It is also the world's largest single market area.

I forecast that in the end of a lot of wrangling [that could have been avoided] we will have more or less the same conditions as we currently have but with the UK not having any say in how the EU is regulated but we will be subject to most of the regulations if we continue to want access to the single market. OK we will be able to do trade deals with other countries but one of our main competitors will be the EU & they will always have more fire power than we can ever have.

All of this disruption, unfriendliness, anguish & consequential loss was caused to massage the egos of the inadequate mob of fools who hark back to a colonial time when their forbears were in 'control'. Those times have passed but the DNA lives on in the psyches of a bunch of silly nincompoops.

Like the Grand Old Duke of York the rhyme goes: ?Oh, The grand old Duke of York, He had ten thousand men; He marched them up to the top of the hill, And he marched them down again.? This will be the Brexit anthem !

[Green Goose]

Hi Lordship,

Again you rattle off lots of percentages in relation to JLR ans Europe and you avoid providing hard numbers on

(1) Unit sales by JRL into Germany and France.

(2) Unit sales by Merc, BMW, VW and Audi into the UK.

Until these are to hand then percentages mean very little.

GG

[Lordship 516]

GG

I have never rattles percentages in relation to JLR - I have concentrated on the overall auto exports & if you have trouble with percentages then I can only feel sorry for you. Every car export lost is a job lost to the UK & EU - it is mutual and the solutions must be on a mutual basis. 44% of UK car production goes to Europe, 20% of European car production comes to the UK. They would far prefer to grow their sales in Asia than in the UK so they have other strategies in place & the Germans have already established that Brexit would probably result in a 2% loss of sales.

I wonder what the Toyota/Nissan/Mini outlook looks like or what contingency strategies they have in place for a Brexit meltdown ?

JLR already have manufacturing facilities in China, India and Brazil with a further one opening in Slovakia in 2018 - just in time for Bexit. They can keep the heart of their operations [R & D, innovation & design] in the UK & export the jobs to wherever it is most beneficial to the company, just as Toyota/Nissan/Mini can also do. Virtually all of UK car production is under foreign control. How's about them apples ?

Waste of time discussing issues with someone who wants to avoid the central issues.

You seem stuck on the hard shoulder over auto imports/imports. The fact is that we are exposed to the EU in regard to auto exports just as they are to us, except the impact would be greater to us if there is no agreement.

The whole matter is about percentages

Start with 45% of UK exports go to the EU, equivalent to 13% of GDP

16% of EU exports go to the UK equivalent to 3% of GDP. Of this figure, when you break out the individual EU countries trade with the UK only Ireland & Cyprus export more than 10% of their goods to the UK. France & Germany both export 7%of their exports to the UK. The UK exports 10% of our exports to Germany & 4.5% to France.

There are two kinds of statistics - those you look up & those you make up; worse than that are those that you suppose. If you are using Dan Hannan MEP 's statistics you will be using made up statistics, apparently based on flawed extrapolations. Numbers are dangerous in the wrong hands.

Which economy is more exposed ?

The EU is a composite economy [GDP 10 trillion Euro] - if we are leaving, we will be on our own [3 trillion Euro GDP} & we need all the friends we can get, especially from the largest economic block in the world - the EU - not the US, not China, not India, not Japan. Exporting to new markets or expanding sales in existing markets is a tough & long drawn out process - its always more economic to keep the customer you have than chase new ones.

If you fail to understand the import of all this then it is not worth discussing further.

No point in having a crack at Germany/France just because of the notional premise that their vulnerability is greater than ours - you have to look at the percentages & the interrelated issues to come to a mutually beneficial agreement. It won't come by posturing as the hard man or by telling them to stuff their goods/take a hike.

[Green Goose]

Your Lordship,

Please don't give up on a very interesting topic. It's close to my heart as I had a career with a major European vehicle manufacturer.

In the absence of hard figuers rather than percentages, I did some Googling and turned up some interesting info from two reliable resources. They both put Germanys unit exports to the UK at around 810,000 pa and the UK is its biggest export market. Their "sales" are slightly bigger in the USA but they manufacture BMWs and Mercs there.

The the two articles clearly support my view that the German car industry are terrified of a major upset to their UK market.

https://next.ft.com/content/f6cda050-20bb-11e5-aa5a-398b2169cf79

About a fifth of all cars produced in Germany last year, or around 820,000 vehicles, were exported to the UK, making it the single biggest destination by volume.

The German car industry has the most to fear of any sector. A study by the Bertelsmann Foundation in April forecast a 2 per cent fall in German car sales to the UK in the 12-year period following any exit of the UK from the EU.

_________________________________________

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3661255/Carry-trading-beg-German-car-bosses-Manufacturers-demand-Britain-allowed-continue-trading-EU-without-barriers.html

Germany sells more cars to Britain than to any other country, with 810,000 exported last year, Mr Wissman said. And half of the 2.6million cars made in Britain last year were built by German-owned firms such as BMW, which runs Mini and Rolls-Royce. Mr Wissman said: ?We should do everything we can to ensure that this success story will be continued. Now it is up to Brussels to take action.?

That progresses the matter of German car exports. The French export heaps (appropriate??) of Peugeots and Citreon Renaults to the uK and they have no manufacturing prescence here.So they would be very vulnerable if I was leading the negotiations.

Turning to the wine trade again, do I take it that my argument there has been accepted as that line of thought has gone without response.

GG

[Lordship 516]

GG

I note you 'had' a career with a major European car manufacturer. I have a career in major economic analysis across many industries globally.

"Turning to the wine trade again, do I take it that my argument there has been accepted as that line of thought has gone without response."

I gave you a response but you choose to ignore it. You like of thought had no validity in practice - only in your head.

I accept the figures you quote for car exports - no problem. I had already noted the report from the Bertlesman Foundation analysis. You might have a look at the aims of the Bertlesman Foundation - "Freedom, solidarity and goodwill are the values that underlie our work and determine our goals" But you choose to ignore figures - 44% of all UK car production goes to Europe against 20% of EU production coming to the UK. The problem is that the UK is equally vulnerable & therefore it is a good think that you won't be around that table. The scenario is more or less equally weighted on both sides with jobs at stake on each side of the equation so we need an equable solution.

We need parity of esteem & respect - not grandstanding & bullying.

[Loz]

Green Goose Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> Turning to the wine trade again, do I take it that

> my argument there has been accepted as that line

> of thought has gone without response.

The latest comment you made was: "Stuff the French and their wine. There's plenty good wine made outside France Australia, RSA, Chile, USA etc. We could take more Spanish and Italian just as long as it is not FRENCH."

You really think people are going to accept that? You really think that is a negotiating tactic a sane trade negotiator would attempt?

[tomdhu]

Lordship 516 Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

I have a career in major

> economic analysis across many industries

> globally.

>

Lordship, why dont you give GG some meaningful hard statistics instead of largely percentages - then maybe he/she will shut up.

Tom

[JoeLeg]

As I said, a position too stupid to be worth arguing with.

The idea that the a) the French are going to care, when they have much bigger sticks to hit us with, and b) the British public is going to accept being told they can't have French wine because of 'politics' is so risible that the inevitable rebuttals are almost pointless, as it's unlikely anybody who forms that idea in the first place is open to counter-points, as LL516 is finding out!

[Villager]

JoeLeg Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

>

> The idea that the a) the French are going to care,

> when they have much bigger sticks to hit us with,

> and b) the British public is going to accept being

> told they can't have French wine because of

> 'politics' is so risible that the inevitable

> rebuttals are almost pointless, as it's unlikely

> anybody who forms that idea in the first place is

> open to counter-points, as LL516 is finding out!

JL,

If things are going to get tough then what the Goose is suggesting may well be the right approach.

Maybe the yuppies of East Dulwich drink French wine exclusively but most of us get by quite nicely on Aussie, Chilean South Africa and here I would add Italian and Spanish ie anything but French if we are forced into penury by Brexit.

Vic

[Green Goose]

Lordship 516 Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> GG

>

> I note you 'had' a career with a major European

> car manufacturer. I have a career in major

> economic analysis across many industries

> globally.

>

M'Lud,

Since you have asked, I can confirm that I had a long, enjoyable and successful career with a major European car manufacturer and reached director level. It covered 4 decades, mostly spent outside the UK and I am now retired. Hence my interest in car exports/imports.

Having negotiated major commercial contracts, I may just have a better appreciation of negotiating strategy than your average Joe.

GG

[JoeLeg]

I'm just going to say this - and I'm sure it's one of those coincidences - but both Villager and Green Goose have a similar posting style. And they registered their accounts one day apart.

Weird. But life is weird these days.

Anyway, I'm more of the mind of LL516. The best way forward in negotiation is calm heads and a firm but fair attitude. If we try to intimidate or threaten the EU it's likely they will screw us just to screw us.

We need to decide what we are not willing to give ground over, and be flexible on everything else.

And with all due respect, commercial contracts and politics are different. Not much different, but those differences are important. Security cooperation and immigration concerns tend not to weigh as heavily for starters. But what do I know?

[Lordship 516]

Villager Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> JoeLeg Wrote:

> --------------------------------------------------

> -----

>

> >

> > The idea that the a) the French are going to

> care,

> > when they have much bigger sticks to hit us

> with,

> > and b) the British public is going to accept

> being

> > told they can't have French wine because of

> > 'politics' is so risible that the inevitable

> > rebuttals are almost pointless, as it's

> unlikely

> > anybody who forms that idea in the first place

> is

> > open to counter-points, as LL516 is finding

> out!

>

> JL,

>

> If things are going to get tough then what the

> Goose is suggesting may well be the right

> approach.

>

> Maybe the yuppies of East Dulwich drink French

> wine exclusively but most of us get by quite

> nicely on Aussie, Chilean South Africa and here I

> would add Italian and Spanish ie anything but

> French if we are forced into penury by Brexit.

>

> Vic

I agree with you with regard to choice of wines - the French wines that are worth drinking are too expensive.

However, GG's approach would not be a good place to start or even to get to. Merkel has already telegraphed her stance in regard to negotiation - she wants to reach a mutually suitable solution and she has already reined in the gung ho member of her party.

I would give finite amounts if I had the time but I off shortly to a wedding in Ireland between an Irish person & a French person - the wine will be French, the craic will be Irish & will last for four days [or so]. We have counted over 20 nationalities that will be present so no mention of EU or Brexit is allowed !

Even if I produce the figures, GG has zeroed in on a relatively small, if important, sector of the whole trade matrix. The negotiators won't favour one industry over the other, nor will they seek to score points over every position. With literally thousands of categories to sort out, tit for tat negotiations would just leave a lot of blood on the floor and entrenchment thus dragging out the agony unnecessarily.

Gove would be the wrong person as would Johnson. We need a very even handed person to lead, tough but fair & ready to see the other side within reason. There should only be winners, with each side leaving more or less happy with the long term outcome.

Bye for now & have a great weekend.

[Green Goose]

A couple of posts here suggest that my stance on negotiating is extreme and aggressive, but I have negotiated with Arabs, Israelis, French, Africans and Russians. They all have diffrent styles. I suggest my detractors visit various web sites dealing with the Theory of Negotiation.

I found the Israelis were the most intransigent. The French were the most aggressive and intimidating. The Arabls would always throw up another demand just when you thought everything had been agreed. The Russians would start out with a list of demands headed by several outrageous demands which they slowly concede. This works by softening up the other side so that all other demands appear reasonable.

I think the British are the only ones whose default strategy is the mutual win-win or meet-in-the-middle approach. By comparison with the other styles, it is relatively unproductive with a high probability of under-achievement. By all means let the other side think they have a "win" but their perceived "win" is only as good as the other side has made it appear.

Having said that, have a look at the "Blackmailer Paradox". To save time I will let you have it here.....

....................................................................................

Reuben and Shimon are placed into a small room with a suitcase containing $100,000 of cash. The owner of the suitcase offers them the following: "I'll give you all the money in the suitcase, but only on the condition that you negotiate and reach an amicable agreement on its division. That?s the only way I will give you the money. "

Reuben, who is a rational person, appreciates the golden opportunity presented to him and turns to Shimon with the obvious suggestion: "Come, you take half the amount, I'll take the other half, and each of us will go away with $50,000." To his surprise, Shimon, with a serious look on his face and a determined voice says: "Listen, I do not know what your intentions are with the money, but I'm not leaving this room with less than $90,000. Take it or leave it. I?m fully prepared to go home with nothing."

Reuben can not believe his ears. What happened to Shimon? he thinks to himself. Why should he get 90%, and I only 10%? He decides to try to talk to Shimon. "Come, be reasonable," he pleads. "We're both in this together, and we both want the money. Come let?s share the amount equally and we?ll both come out ahead.?

But the reasoned explanation of his friend does not seem to register on Shimon. He listens attentively to Reuben?s words, but then declares even more emphatically, "There is nothing to discuss. 90-10 or nothing, that's my final offer!" Reuben's face turns red with anger. He wants to smack Shimon across his face, but soon reconsiders. He realizes that Shimon is determined to leave with the majority of the money, and that the only way for him to leave the room with any money is to surrender to Shimon?s blackmail. He straightens his clothes, pulls out a wad of bills from the suitcase in the amount of $10,000, shakes hands with Shimon and leaves the room looking forlorn.

This case in Game Theory is called the ?Blackmailer Paradox." The paradox emerging from this case is that the rational Reuben is eventually forced to act clearly irrationally, in order to gain the maximum available to him. The logic behind this bizarre result is that Shimon broadcast total faith and confidence in his excessive demands, and he is able to convince Reuben to yield to his blackmail in order for him to receive the minimum benefit.

.............................................................

I welcome comments.

GG

[JoeLeg]

Edited and deleted because life is too short and it's not worth it.