MP details please

[ianr]

Lordship 516 Wrote:

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> on the other hand UK politicians are threatening to deport EU citizens.

Where has this been stated?

[????]

jaywalker Wrote:

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> OK try this

>

> The EU can spot a hegemonic possibility when they

> see one. If they refuse to negotiate even

> informally before A50 is invoked we are placed in

> a hopeless negotiating position.

>

> The EU can fix individual members problems. But we

> have declared we are no longer a member!

>

> The accuracy of models of system outcomes is

> actually quite good. See the weather forecast.

> There is MUCH more data and MUCH more computing

> power (Moore's law) now: even 'chaotic' systems

> have long periods of stability. The BofE is

> polling its informants DAILY to ascertain the

> 'real' reaction to regrexit.

>

> Trade deals in the EU involve free movement of

> labour. Unfortunately most regrexiters voted

> 'leave' on the basis of atavistic notions of

> nationhood.

>

> The point of a model is that it models the system,

> not the shock. The shock can be calibrated - for

> example by the BofE's polling of informants.

What were the models predicting, say 2 years out, in 2006?

[Lordship 516]

???? Wrote:

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> Ok try this

>

> We have no real negotiation strength - we do

> The EU can fix individual members problems that

> occur as a result of Brexit - on what evidence?

> Greece?

> The world can be explained by models.......oh yes

> Trade deals can't be put together quickly - they

> can actually

> The EU doesn't want to get to a workable

> compromise - of course they do

> A 'Brexit' type scenario has never happened so how

> do your models build that in?

>

> I've said we are going to have economic hardship,

> largely as a result of uncertainty, my point is

> that if we get on with it, things won't be as bad

> as your models suggest

Everyone around a table has negotiating strength, otherwise they wouldn't be there; however, ours is not as strong as some suggest.

The EU did provide a fix for Greece but they didn't accept it. Ireland accepted it even though they were treated despicably by the German banks but they accepted the bitter pill and exited in 2012/2013 with more local recovery being worked on. The solution was provided by the EU that had the critical mass to provide it.

Modelling cannot explain the world - it is merely a tool that can be used to inform options & aid risk reduction. People like politicians & even some economists that try to use their favoured iterations of a model do so at their own risk - they will have been informed of this in advance by any responsible econometrist.

Trade deals cannot be put together quickly - we will just have to disagree on this.

The EU will want to get a workable compromise - we can agree on this but it may be very short of the mark that the UK will want under a Conservative government.

Knowing the Brexit result informs the model, various iterations can show the effects of the various shocks, currency values, price rises, unemployment, timings etc etc. From this we can derive options that can inform strategies & decisions.

We are in agreement in regard to the economic hardship that is unfolding; unfortunately 'we' are not getting on with it as politicians have decided to continue political uncertainty, so the models [not my models] show that it will be quite a lot worse than you suggest. We are entering into a time of stagflation with the compponents [as always] unknown so it is difficult to fend it off.

[jaywalker]

???? Wrote:

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> What were the models predicting, say 2 years out,

> in 2006?

that things would carry on much as before through to 2010 (say)?

i.e. they did not anticipate the shock of the financial crisis?

Now you are saying you have some way of knowing that the already palpable shock of regrexit (like the palpable shock of banks going bust in 2008) will just leave things as they are?

[????]

So where's your data to input for the last 11 days? How have your models calibrated anything other than guess work to come out with these scenarios? We don't know do we? We have no meaningful data yet? So you have made heroic assumptions or you haven't actually used any models? Any sensible model - and I think that's an oxymoron - needs data. The only conceivable way you could have done this is by making massive assumptions on say interest rates, trade levels, the value of the ? as 11 days gives you no meaningful data does it?

[jaywalker]

er, there was an event? regrexit?

would you have said the same if you were Darling woken up in the small hours and told of another event?

[Lordship 516]

???? Wrote:

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> So where's your data to input for the last 11

> days? How have your models calibrated anything

> other than guess work to come out with these

> scenarios? We don't know do we? We have no

> meaningful data yet? So you have made heroic

> assumptions or you haven't actually used any

> models? Any sensible model - and I think that's an

> oxymoron - needs data. The only conceivable way

> you could have done this is by making massive

> assumptions on say interest rates, trade levels,

> the value of the ? as 11 days gives you no

> meaningful data does it?

There's plenty of meaningful data, some of it finite, some structured, some unstructured - the skill is to analyse, interpret & quantify it. Your concept of a model is too narrow. A model doesn't define actuals like you might imagine, but what models can do is define limits & options, even if some of the data is imperfect. any model might have hundreds of iterations and this is where the analytical skill comes into play. The tracking of the pound and other currencies over the last 11 days has been quite useful in providing us with limits might be and what options are open and what options are closed.

That is what a model can provide. To go further - sure, we need more data but this will be collected on a real-time basis whether we are asleep or awake and analysed by algorithims that will then be interrogated as to their integrity so the resultant data is fed into the model & analysis will provide a reasonably robust result. The result is not real life - the mistake is to define it as such.

I never use assumptions, except when asked by a client to do 'what-if' scenarios & then test all the data ab initium.

[????]

But this is a "what if scenarios" two weeks ago the 'client' would be asking "what if the Uk leaves the EU?" And, you'd have to say "this hasn't happened before so we need to make some assumptions on Consumer spending, inflation, levels of investment etc etc. Other than exchange rate we have no meaningful data of this sorts based on 11 days. What hard data are you inputting then, there's been almost none at the aggregate level has there?

[Lordship 516]

:)) stay well !

As I said there is a lot of data spewing out every day from many sources, plus we have some more advertised public statements. Interest rate, QE proposed, currency trend developing daily, unemployment, price rises, energy models which are reasonably predictable, etc. etc... If you have the feeds & know where to look there is plenty of data and all modelers have alliances that mutually share data in a similar manner like the BoE poll banks & financial institutions. No man is an island, not even the Treasury.

Models are not single outputs but multiple iterations that are then reduced to more intelligent scenarios - this is where the skill, experience & expertise comes into it.

[Green Goose]

Pleased to see that Merkel is taking a more concilliatory position that the other EU heads of state. She knows what side the German bread is buttered on. The UK is the German's largest market for car exports. The total for VW, Audi, Mercedes etc is around 430,000 units per annum. At an average of say ?25,000 each that is ?10,75,000,000. Now that is BIG money.

If the UK was to slap an extra 15% duty on thes eimports, that impact massively on volume and would be seriously painful financially to Grmany. We can easily get more car s from Japan etc to compensate.

The value of French wine exports to the UK is around ?1,100,000,000 pa. The UK is the second largest importer of French wine after the UK. Slap extra duty duty on that and it would make them sit up and think.

Targetting these two countries I feel would produce real leverage in the forthcoming negotiations.

Belgium and Luxemburg are not worth wasting time on even though they are the most enthusiastic about having a Federal Euro State. Once Germany and France see how it might affect them then they negotiate pragmatically.

[Loz]

But, GG, negotiations don't go like that. The Germans know what their car industry is worth and will negotiate a deal for one or two of our exports that come to a similar value. We'll end up with a deal with Germany for their cars and, say, our steel. Maybe the French will barter some part of trade for wine (though French wine is generally more expensive anyway and all wine in general is subject to relatively large taxes at the lower end of the market.)

But we still won't have access to the single market.

[????]

well that would work out very well for us then Loz given the massive trade deficit we have with Germany & France - we are fixing our balance of payments problem already by your logic......

[Loz]

Yeah, but which do you want more - a better balance of payments, or cheap wine?

[ratty]

The thing that worries me most is more and continued austerity. Must admit this is quite personal as it would mean the end of my current job and extremely limited prospects of getting another one, as well as the genuine human concern for others. Would people more learned than me care to comment?

Looking for any cold comfort that there may be.

[jaywalker]

???? Wrote:

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> well that would work out very well for us then Loz

> given the massive trade deficit we have with

> Germany & France - we are fixing our balance of

> payments problem already by your logic......

I think this is wrong. Not just because of the J - curve effect (at first we carry on buying foreign goods even though they are more expensive, until we find domestic substitutes (but from where ....)). But mainly because the current account will indeed be 'remedied' but by INCOME effects. Falling real GDP means lower imports. So we get an improvement in the current account but that is only a symptom of stagflation. Meanwhile, the capital account is what should really worry us - 96% of all foreign exchange dealings. The impending outflow here must be matched by a current account surplus: dear god what that means for our collective standard of living.

[Green Goose]

Loz Wrote:

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> But, GG, negotiations don't go like that. The

> Germans know what their car industry is worth and

> will negotiate a deal for one or two of our

> exports that come to a similar value. We'll end up

> with a deal with Germany for their cars and, say,

> our steel.

Sorry Loz, but that is rubbish. The UK does not export much steel to anyone as the UK steel industry is on its knees. UK steel is costly because our energy costs are higher because we have gone overboard on green energy and carbon levels.

In this situation you dont go for the usual gentlemanly Win-Win situation. No, you go in hard and get your punches in first. Make them aware of what they have to lose. Target them individually where they are most vulnerable. Divide them, make them fearful and dominate the discussion.

The UK does not export much (apart from whiskey) to either France and Germany. So, we have nothing much to loose but they have. Scotland wishes to stay in the EU so let the Scots do it their way on their own and negotiate with whiskey.

Seriously, the UK must play hard ball with France and Germany. They have more to loose than the UK has.

This is a classic case where compromise is NOT best. The UK has a strong hand compared to France and Germany. We can get wine and cars cheaper from plenty of other countries. Going for a negotiated compromise ( ie win-win) just results in a wishy-washy pathetic outcome and the UK will miss out.

We need tough negotiators who have worked in industry and commerce- not career politicians who always want to go down the middle path of compromise. Cameron, Osborne, Johnston and the others from the Oxbridge elite etc have never worked outside politics. They have no idea of how business operates and know no other way than compromise. They all came up as SPADs - out of touch with real commercial life.

It was the politicos (then Labour) who did not give us the full facts about the implications of the Lisbon treaty. We were all conned. Same as the conned us on Iraq WMDs. That's why people voted for Brexit- it was a protest vote againstt the system be it in Westminster or Brussels

The UK was always a fringe player in Brussels. We never got accepted by the inner clique of France, Germany, Begium, Italy, Luxemburg and Netherlands.

If we negotiate strongly, we will come out of this stronger than before,

[Loz]

The problem you face with that strategy, GG, is that - AFAIK - each of the 27 EU countries has a veto on whatever trade deal is settled. And, as we know, you have to do the trade deal with the EU - not each individual country.

[Lordship 516]

GG

"The UK does not export much (apart from whiskey) to either France and Germany. So, we have nothing much to loose but they have. Scotland wishes to stay in the EU so let the Scots do it their way on their own and negotiate with whiskey. "

Whisky[not whiskey] & hard liquor exports to Germany account for 0.82 of UK exports. We export more ink 0.94% than we do hard liquor. Cars 7.7%, Aircraft Parts 6.4%, Car Parts 2.7%, Various types of engines 4.6% & so on....

Its not possible to source French wine except in France...and you cannot get BMWs, Mercs or Volks except from Europe...UK buyers will want these & no government will stop the demand. The opposite is also true - Europeans will also want Range Rovers & Jags.

Besides, do you for one moment think that adopting the traditional bullying attitude of the City of London will faze the Germans or the French [& others] ? I think not. They will have many positions of their own that they can counter hard ball positions from UK negotiators and they will have more substitution options from within Europe. You strategy will merely drag out the negotiations.

Exports to the UK are important to the EU but are only 12% of the overall exports & 3% of their GDP. Exports from the UK to Europe constitute 45% of UK exports - I think the EU negotiators might be aware of these facts. Your suggested tactics would just prolong the agony for the UK.

We do need tough negotiators but they also need to be realistic and pragmatic. We need stability as much and more than the EU. Sooner rather than later. WE need to make deals - not history.

[Lordship 516]

...a further note on cars - 90% of all Toyota car production in UK is exported with 57% of UK car production going to the EU so the pressure is equal - a mutual solution must be found. Car exports from Germany to the UK accounts for 20% of their production. We already had that a good solution in place but the lunatic fringe decided that they wanted control. Now they are left with no one in control & the EU will never compromise on the four main principles including free movement - that will have to be on a mutual basis also. It will either be all in or all out.

[JoeLeg]

Loz Wrote:

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> The problem you face with that strategy, GG, is

> that - AFAIK - each of the 27 EU countries has a

> veto on whatever trade deal is settled. And, as

> we know, you have to do the trade deal with the EU

> - not each individual country.

Is it not the case that the threshold is 20 EU nations in agreement with 65% of the population of the EU? Happy to be corrected either way. And it's still a pretty big mountain to climb.

Interested to hear GG's responses to the actual facts laid out by LL516, as opposed to their own thoughts. Not holding my breath though.

[Green Goose]

Lordship 516 Wrote:

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> GG

>

> "The UK does not export much (apart from whiskey)

> to either France and Germany. So, we have nothing

> much to loose but they have. Scotland wishes to

> stay in the EU so let the Scots do it their way on

> their own and negotiate with whiskey. "

Agreed. That's exactly the point I was making. Let the Scots do their own thing.

>

> Whisky & hard liquor exports to Germany account

> for 0.82 of UK exports. We export more ink 0.94%

> than we do hard liquor. Cars 7.7%, Aircraft Parts

> 6.4%, Car Parts 2.7%, Various types of engines

> 4.6% & so on....

OK , you have good statistics, so what might I ask is, what is the UK's biggest export, by value, to Germany and France respectively.

>

> Its not possible to source French wine except in

> France...

Stuff the French and their wine. There's plenty good wine made outside France Australia, RSA, Chile, USA etc. We could take more Spanish and Italian just as long as it is not FRENCH.

and you cannot get BMWs, Mercs or Volks

> except from Europe...

Stuff the German cars too. We can get more cars from Japan, Korea, Turkry, USA etc etc. They are just as good if not better. The common folk here dont drive Mercs and BMWs so why accomodate the elite?

> UK buyers will want these &

> no government will stop the demand.

Look, we are facing austerity, so stuff the Mercs, Audis and BMWs. Lets go Toyota and Nissan- both built here.

> is also true - Europeans will also want Range

> Rovers & Jags.

Germans dont drive many Jags and RR's

>

> Besides, do you for one moment think that adopting

> the traditional bullying attitude of the City of

> London will faze the Germans or the French [&

> others] ? I think not. They will have many

> positions of their own that they can counter hard

> ball positions from UK negotiators and they will

> have more substitution options from within Europe.

> You strategy will merely drag out the

> negotiations.

>

> Exports to the UK are important to the EU but are

> only 12% of the overall exports & 3% of their GDP.

> Exports from the UK to Europe constitute 45% of

> UK exports - I think the EU negotiators might be

> aware of these facts.

You miss my basic point. We should only target France and Germany. Forget your EU wide statistics. Hit the two countries that export most to the UK. Divide and conquer!

>

> We do need tough negotiators but they also need to

> be realistic and pragmatic. We need stability as

> much and more than the EU. Sooner rather than

> later. WE need to make deals - not history.

Sorry, but I think you are one of those down-the-middle, win-win people. Meeting in the middle is plain stupid. We have alternatives elsewhere to Germany and France. Tell them to take a hike and find another market for their exports. Then they will wake up and smell the coffee.

Merkel faces an election next year and she doesnt want to be seen as the one who gave up a huge export market for their cars. Same with Hollande and French wine.

[JoeLeg]

"You miss my basic point. We should only target France and Germany. Forget your EU wide statistics. Hit the two countries that export most to the UK. Divide and conquer!"

Sorry, but you miss the basic point - we are NOT going to be negotiating just with France and Germany. We will be dealing with thre entire EU. It will not be possible to divide and conquer.

And as for your 'stuff French wine' position (to take just one). You're seriously going to tell British people that hey can't have this or that product because of trade deals and such. Telling them only certain cards will be available? Telling them that in a globalised world like ours products are limited by politics? They won't accept that.

And yes, Nissan is here. Will they be staying?

I'm really glad you aren't part of he negotiating time. Rook makes good, well thought out points which give me pause for thought. Your reactionary insistence that we can run rough-shod over the EU is scary and divisive. We will make no long term friends by trying to kick them around the table.

[rendelharris]

Green Goose wrote:

>Germans dont drive many Jags and RR's

In 2015 Europe was Jaguar Land Rover's largest market with over 110,000 sales, representing over 25% of total global sales, and sales in Germany rose by 28%. So, basically, you're utterly wrong.

http://www.jaguarlandrover.com/gl/en/investor-relations/news/2016/01/08/jaguar-land-rover-reports-strong-full-year-global-sales-for-2015/

[Lordship 516]

Merkel is facing an elecion next year & she can afford to hold out until she can get back in. Then she won't be under so much pressure. Already the UK politicians are accomodating her by delaying action.

I have already given you stats for UK exports to Germany.

Uk exports to France - Aircraft Parts 7.8% Cars 7.4% Hard liquor 3%

Your stance is destructive - the EU negotiators would just walk out of the room & wait until the UK negotiators asked for another meeting. No serious negotiator would adopt the attitude you suggest - that's gambling.

The EU is a complex multidimensional matrix of resources - the UK is a single resource. Much of the goods imported by the UK can be moved around. I gave the simple example of bovine meat earlier this week. Ireland export about 1.2billion Euro of bovine meat to the UK; the UK export about 900 million Euro of bovine meat to Germany; the Germans can get this from Ireland and the Irish will then have to resolve the other 300million Euro elsewhere. The UK doesn't yet have that facility available to it.

Also some of the main manufacturers of cars in the UK are German - Rolls, Royce, Bentley, Minis & some components are made in Germany. If you play hardball with these guys they have several options & UK workers could suffer. A study by the Bertelsmann Foundation in April 2015 forecast a 2 per cent fall in German car sales to the UK in the 12-year period following any exit of the UK from the EU - the Germans have already put their strategy in place - it appears that Whitehall has yet to sort out theirs..

With Toyota & Nissan any significant increase in costs will cause them to question whether they will stay in the UK or move to a EU location as most of their UK exports go to the EU. They might conceivably just pack up & go & under WTO rules they couldn't be stopped taking all their kit with them and probably a lot of their human resource also.

I do believe in win-win but believe more in optimizing the resolution in the shortest possible time so constructive work can get under way.

There are about 2000 categories of exports that have to be negotiated item by item, company by company and the EU have 27 resolutions for each one - the UK will only have one plus any new markets the UK can develop & they have very few negotiators in place to do this. For every position the UK will try to adopt the EU can canvass 27 options to counter that - not an easy road ahead & certainly not with 'stuff this/stuff that, take a hike' barrow boy attitudes.

[Lordship 516]

GG

"We have alternatives elsewhere to Germany and France."

Where are these alternatives ? Further, why have the UK manufacturers not been selling to these buyers already ? Are they lazy & complacent ? I don't think so. Any new buyers will be hard to win & will drive a hard bargain plus the main competition for those buyers will be those people from the EU that you have told to stuff off & take a hike.

It's we who will be stuffed.