Please - no more whinging about the referendum result

[rendelharris]

robbin Wrote:

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> But this was exactly my point! The FTSE went up

> last week - it hasn't crashed! That's not to say

> it might not do so some time, of course it might,

> but my point is that some people are hysterically

> saying it HAS when it hasn't! This is not a matter

> of opinion - the FTSE index is published data!

>

> It's fine to say I think in future there might be

> problems. To say oh look the economy has tanked

> (meaning the FTSE) is not - because it hasn't.

Yes, the FTSE 100 index is published data - it dropped 8% on Friday before recovering to only drop 3.2% on the day. In early afternoon trading today it has dropped a further 2.1% This represents billions and billions of pounds wiped off share values. The FTSE 250, which contains more companies with a British focus, dropped 7% on Friday and so far today is a further 6% down. Where are you getting the figures that say the FTSE is going up, please?

[Earl Aelfheah]

Forget it, we're 'post fact' now.

[WorkingMummy]

rahrahrah Wrote:

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> Forget it, we're 'post fact' now.

Pfffhhaa! Yes exactly. "The markets have gone up since Thursday, and that is just my opinion!"

[robbin]

Oh, so the circuit breakers automatically suspending trading for 5 minutes means the company is "in trouble" does it Azira?!

Your condescending comments are noted ( I see you've been keeping those up with others on other threads - so I won't take it personally - clearly that's just your style). However, you seem to have a very na?ve view of the 'markets'. Maybe that's a little knowledge being a dangerous thing. If you were to get involved in them on your own account, as well as in your job (whatever that is) then I reckon you would get to grip with the principles faster?

I assume based on the timing of your posts (e.g. 3.32pm) that you are not at the sharp end of things in the markets.

[rendelharris]

Can you answer my post too please Robbin and tell us where the "facts" showing that the FTSE has not dropped come from?

[JoeLeg]

"I assume based on the timing of your posts (e.g. 3.32pm) that you are not at the sharp end of things in the markets."

To be fair, based on the timings of your posts one might assume the same of you.

Genuine question (because I have no expertise in markets/finance) what is your area of knowledge/expertise?

[JoeLeg]

(Edited, double post)

[robbin]

rendelharris - you asked where the data comes from.

It is published on Londonstockexchange.com

Or many other sites. Google the relevant dates if you want to check. 7 days ago on Monday 20 June (i.e. before the vote) the FTSE 100 opened at 6021. This morning (Monday 27 June) it opened at 6049. 28 points higher than a week ago. Are those figures not correct?

Given that you asked that surprising question you went on to make what at first blush is a good point, which is of course that the 250 index is a better guide because it is more heavily domestic. However, while your point is a fair one, the same caveats apply to the 250 as to the 100 index in relation to the weight you can place on the stock market as a true short term barometer of economic performance.

In times of volatility any conclusions are rendered extremely shaky (at best) because of profit taking and setting up of positions, shorting of the market etc. The banks and investors are out there making money, day by day - they are not involved in some sort of voting of confidence in the long term performance of the economy and it would be exceedingly na?ve to think that they are (I know you were not saying that, but some others appear to believe that to be the case).

[rendelharris]

No Robbin, please provide figures and source. I say the FTSE 100 dropped 3.2% on Friday and has so far today dropped a further 2.1%. You say it's gone up. Please show your working.

[Westnorwoodboy]

rendelharris when compared to a week ago.......

Opening and close figures from 14 June...

Date Open close

24-Jun-16 6,338.10 6,138.70

23-Jun-16 6,261.20 6,338.10

22-Jun-16 6,226.60 6,261.20

21-Jun-16 6,204.00 6,226.60

20-Jun-16 6,021.10 6,204.00

17-Jun-16 5,950.50 6,021.10

16-Jun-16 5,966.80 5,950.50

15-Jun-16 5,923.50 5,966.80

14-Jun-16 6,045.00 5,923.50

The FTSE 100 increased in the week leading up to the referendum, and closed higher on the 24 June(6,138) than on 14 June (5,923)

Tried to reformat the table but i can't as it doesn't look like the above when previewing.

[rendelharris]

That's cheating Robbin, editing your post to add figures after I've replied! The opening figures comparisons between a week ago and now are irrelevant, what's relevant is that on Friday, the day after the vote, the FTSE fell from 6338 to 6138. It rallied slightly this morning to be higher than it was the previous Monday (but still more than 200 points below what it closed at on Thursday), which I assume is what you're trying to base "it hasn't dropped" on, but as of 15.57 today it had fallen again to 5985. You can say it's market volatility if you like but claiming it hasn't dropped since the result was announced is simply not true. ?85 billion has been wiped off share values on the London exchange in the last two (working) days.

[Westnorwoodboy]

You could argue it is a moot point as the market increased the index a couple of hundred points in week building up to the referendum therefore both gains and loses were made.

[Azira]

I'm sorry that you have chosen to interpret my comments as condescending. I was trying to be kind in the face of your appalling ignorance.

If you seriously believe that investors are not making predictions as to the future health of our economy, then you don't even have the faintest understanding of what products they are investing in. What on earth do you think investing in a forward or option is other than making a bet on the position of the future state of the market?

The time I posted is utterly irrelevant. I was making a comment about the wider state of the market and the fact you can't extrapolate the health of the economy by a snapshot view of a single benchmark, although if you get your information about the markets from newspapers rather than actual experience (which the fact you're using Google to get your info on the FTSE alone bears out) I'm not surprised you can't grasp that.

I can see you aren't interested in hearing about the facts, so won't bother with you any further, but you might want to look at Bloomberg for a start before you pretend to know what you're talking about. And for added levels of condescension, red equals bad, m'kay?

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/UKX:IND/members

[robbin]

Sorry - I was adding the figures (cut and pasted from my earlier post) to make it clearer.

I never said the index has not dropped since the vote (it plainly has - the figures are out there for all to see). However, I disagree - it is highly relevant that the index rose drastically just before the vote - there was an awful lot of speculation and position taking in the 2 days pre-vote (and on the day itself). It was artificially high and there was profit taking. What is artificial is to ignore the fact that it was all pumped up and just refer to the drastic fall the day after in a vacuum - context and perspective is everything!

Don't get me wrong - I'm not saying the index did not drop a lot in one day (although it recovered about half its drop on Thursday) - of course it did. I'm also not saying it won't fall again, or even that it won't fall into a longer term bear market. It is a very volatile market and will be for a time. Markets hate uncertainty, but at the same time some people profit from it (or will try to profit from it) and the trading that comes with uncertainty can itself lead to exaggerated falls and rises in the index with no real underlying trend (or at least that's my opinion - and I'm certainly not alone in that view). What I do think is wrong and the limited point I was trying to make is that some people choose to pick a day or two of downwards movement and start making wild and/or hysterical points by reference to them and holding them out as some sort of 'proof' of something which they are not.

[robbin]

Goodness me Azira!

[Siduhe]

robbin Wrote:

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> Oh, so the circuit breakers automatically

> suspending trading for 5 minutes means the company

> is "in trouble" does it Azira?!

Yes, that's exactly why the circuit breakers exist. It means that the value of the company has fallen so significantly from the price that it opened trading at that it is appropriate for a regulatory strucutre to kick in to protect them against unnecessary or transitory volatility in prices and to protect them from periods of extreme illiquidity. If you don't think that a stock price fall of this extent hurts Barclays or RBS (makes it more expensive for them to raise funding, deal with counterparties and generally continue with BAU) even over the short term, then I fundamentally disagree.

[robbin]

It was the uneducated reference (not yours) to "in trouble" that I was taking issue with. It is manifestly not the case that those companies are in trouble merely because of the activity of the circuit breaker.

[Blah Blah]

Not from one circuit breaker no, but we could have months and years of this until the market knows what is going to happen between us and the EU.

[Jeremy]

To be fair, the week before last, the FTSE dipped on the back of Brexit fears, so it's not a good benchmark for comparison.

Too early to say for sure whether the current apparent dip is of any particular significance. The drop in GBP is more telling.

[????]

I think all (or most) European banks are getting a pasting because of Brexit

[Lordship 516]

???? Wrote:

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> The world is in awe? le pen, Trump and various

> right wing Europeans is not the world. Most of the

> world is thinking what the f*ck have they done.

Not awe..aghast...amazed at the stupidity...gobsmacked... most normal people in US..China...South America...Africa...the same awe & shock as if an hydrogen bomb went off in central London...Trump is a dick - doesn't count for a hill of beans as they say in the good ole' south...

[Lordship 516]

Jeremy Wrote:

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> To be fair, the week before last, the FTSE dipped

> on the back of Brexit fears, so it's not a good

> benchmark for comparison.

>

> Too early to say for sure whether the current

> apparent dip is of any particular significance.

> The drop in GBP is more telling.

Hang on to that thought Jeremy 'cos that one is coming up your rear end also..!

[*Bob*]

Lordship 516 Wrote:

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...the same awe

> & shock as if an hydrogen bomb went off in central

> London

Let's not get too silly, there's enough of that around already.

[Jeremy]

Lordship 516 Wrote:

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> Hang on to that thought Jeremy 'cos that one is

> coming up your rear end also..!

??

[Lordship 516]

*Bob* Wrote:

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> Lordship 516 Wrote:

> --------------------------------------------------

> -----

> ...the same awe

> > & shock as if an hydrogen bomb went off in

> central

> > London

>

>

> Let's not get too silly, there's enough of that

> around already.

Apologies if you couldn't quite understand a metaphor...