Increased xenophobia/racism

[jaywalker]

The question then DaveR must be whether you think your understanding of the situation is not influenced by models (consciously or non-consciously). There are it seems to me good reasons to think that ALL thinking is metaphorical in inspiration - one thing acting as a 'model' of something else. One then has to interrogate what the selection, simplification and inevitable distortion imply (the sort of work that is or should be done in the university). Or do you take ordinary commonsense thinking as veridical?

[DaveR]

I don't think that's the question. I think the question is whether you have anything helpful to say on this topic, and I think you've just answered it.

[JohnL]

Someone here is a weather forecaster I reckon :)

[Lordship 516]

Apologies again if you feel patronized - not intended, mea maxima culpa.

Your definition of a model is reasonable but there is another take on what a model is - a model seeks to provide a representation of the environment which the client is seeking to understand and should be capable of interrogation to display variations of that environment in response to the client's queries. The second part of your definition is something that every modeler ascribes to

In good faith I responded in the same manner as I would to friendly neighbours.

Its a fair question to ask what our data might be & also fair for me to refuse to share it as this is our stock in trade.

Carney displayed a little data today & has kicked off the information trail that will eventually display more or less what I and others have been talking about. I never predicted doom & gloom - what I have indicated is a certain reality that is unfolding and will further unfold daily/weekly/monthly/yearly and a lot of people will suffer due to this awful political impasse.

The quants didn't get anyone into any mess. Quants merely show consequences & options - its the policy makers that screw it up by not testing their policies in a robust manner. Every policy move has a consequence [intended or unintended] & usually can be measured but often ideology takes over & politicians either on the left or right plow ahead because they feel they know best. Most often the quants will then inform their clients where the gains will be much like tax accountants & lawyers will inform clients about how to take advantage of certain tax laws.

The facts are simple - we are heading for the rocks & badly need saving by some intervention that doesn't appear to be on the horizon yet.

Its like a tsunami - we know the earthquake has gone off somewhere deep in the ocean & can even see little ripples appearing on the surface of the water - it will grow and grow as the wave progresses unless it is stopped in its tracks by a superior force or if the energy is absorbed by the distance of travel. Not all will be fortunate enough to make it through the storm.

During the last couple of days someone made a comment about the people in his workplace making a comment that it would be best not to spend at this time & just pay down debt if you can. This is good personal advice but it will be bad for the economy as it will depress already stressed markets & cause employment. To fix our economy now we need everyone to go out & spend like crazy but people's defensive nature & herd instinct dictate otherwise. We have already entered the cycle & I'm sorry but all that is visible is doom & gloom.

Economics is a social science and subject to all the vagaries of human nature & the natural world. Sometimes 2 = 2 can equal less than 4.

If we could apply the Hegelian Dialectic it would be wonderful - Thesis, Synthesis, Synthesis [Mark went down that route & failed] - however trying to resolve economic systems & expecting large diverse groups of people to respond accordingly really is like herding cats.

My hope is that with all the chaos in play at the moment, both sides - UK & EU defer Article 50 & will work together to seek a middle way that will keep the relationship more or less like it is - not really remaining but not leaving either.

Face saving all round should be accommodated not the current chest beating, bombastic, adversarial posturing that is currently underway.

[Lordship 516]

miga Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> Lordship 516 Wrote:

> --------------------------------------------------

> -----

> > who program in Fortran

> > like it is our mother tongue - sometimes we

> strip

> > out redundant lines of code or insert routines

> of

> > our own.

>

> This made me chuckle....that's kind of what

> programming is.

Yep - but I was simplifying my answer so it wouldn't have too much techno rubbish in it. You are very familiar but others might not. To answer you directly - our main model is written using Fortran and was first set up about 40 years ago. We have kept the basic shell & refined it to a block tructure over the years [i belong to the 'goto' era - early 70s !. For our purposes it is superior to so-called modern Fortran developments.

'nuff about software. No one really wants to know.

[DaveR]

I don't think we disagree about definitions, but I think you have missed my point. You make a comparison with tsunamis, but modelling tsunamis is ultimately about the application of the laws of physics to inanimate materials. Economics, however, as you observe "is a social science and subject to all the vagaries of human nature..". It's just not the same, which is why when seismologists press the red button we all head for the high ground, but when economists do the same we are entitled to be sceptical. FWIW, my own view is that the medium - long term economic impact of Brexit is very likely to be negative but unlikely to be catastrophic - in particular, I am dubious about the stagflation predictions. Apart from anything else there appears to be a key assumption that 'the EU' is an institution whose behaviour is likely to be consistent and predictable over time - a very weak assumption when, just as a single example, there is a French presidential election less than a year from now.

[midivydale]

How did a thread about increased xenophobia and racism end up derailed to discussion about modelling the tsunami?

[Lordship 516]

DaveR Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> I don't think we disagree about definitions, but I

> think you have missed my point. You make a

> comparison with tsunamis, but modelling tsunamis

> is ultimately about the application of the laws of

> physics to inanimate materials. Economics,

> however, as you observe "is a social science and

> subject to all the vagaries of human nature..".

> It's just not the same, which is why when

> seismologists press the red button we all head for

> the high ground, but when economists do the same

> we are entitled to be sceptical. FWIW, my own

> view is that the medium - long term economic

> impact of Brexit is very likely to be negative but

> unlikely to be catastrophic - in particular, I am

> dubious about the stagflation predictions. Apart

> from anything else there appears to be a key

> assumption that 'the EU' is an institution whose

> behaviour is likely to be consistent and

> predictable over time - a very weak assumption

> when, just as a single example, there is a Frenchreal estate, sharee

> presidential election less than a year from now.

The reference to a tsunami was allegorical only.

What happens in France or anywhere else will not influence our current situation unless they give us a lot of financial support. We have opted to go it alone for the moment.

Everything so far points to stagflation being a distinct possibility & the political uncertainty is not helping. This will continue for a long time and will make people & companies very defensive & hesitant to invest & spend. We have already had one of the major elements of stagflation inflation due to currency depreciation - this has yet to come through in prices as vendors will try their best to hold off as long as they can out of self interest but the next six months are crucial for employment. Carney easing lending may or may not have any effect but it depends on people & companies being able or willing to borrow. Much borrowing is against tangible asset classes such as real estate, shares, stocks, etc all of which may already have been used or devalued. Even if the borrowing facility is taken up, it offers little by the way of addressing the demand side of the equation & is certainly not enough [even with the mooted interest rate reduction to 0.25% & increased quantitative easing] to keep us out of a serious recession from early 2017. Tough times ahead. Unfortunately stagflation takes time to embed & when it does it is too late to fend it off.

[Seabag]

I'm suffering 'read fatigue' right now

I'm I stagflated?

Or Bratigued ?

[jaywalker]

DaveR Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> I don't think that's the question. I think the

> question is whether you have anything helpful to

> say on this topic, and I think you've just

> answered it.

you are probably right. i guess i'm just too stupid to have anything helpful to say. I was always told this at school, i should have listened.

but also, I guess its only by trying that one can realise ones stupidity when given the benefit of such detailed engagement and criticism that you have kindly provided on my posts.

[jaywalker]

Seabag Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> I'm suffering 'read fatigue' right now

>

> I'm I stagflated?

>

> Or Bratigued ?

you soon will be stagflated. that's what we've been trying to say. forgive the sense of humour failure, but (to return to the main thread) we now have the leading Tory candidate for PM (and her odious supporters) saying that EU workers in the UK, and UK citizens living in the EU, are now 'negotiable'.

[midivydale]

Pawn chips

[WorkingMummy]

It's disgusting.

People of my generation grew up being told by our leaders that we were European and we believed them. Many of us committed to making the idea of the European family the reality of lives. For decades, we have lived, loved, had families, on the understanding that our partner's, children's, EU citizenship would give them equal rights in this country as our own British passports give us. And that in turn our, EU citizenship gave us the ability to follow our family members (of other nationalities) around the continent as personal situations and hard-nosed economics dictated. Now all that seems under threat. To hear Thersea May and the other ?uc?wit Tories debate whether the father of my children can or cannot definitely stay post Brexit is sickening. But what they have not factored in at all - what doesn't seem to have even entered their narrow minded little heads - is what taking away my EU citizenship does for the cohesion of my family in future.

Having built my life on my EU citizenship, I feel utterly, utterly betrayed.

Thank God - from a completely selfish point of view - I have today had it confirmed that my maternal grandmother was born in Ireland in 1900, entitling me to an Irish passport. But I know other British mothers of European families who do not have this comfort and it is awful for them.

I am seriously considering paying the 227 quid to renounce my BRITISH citizenship, once my Irish passport is sorted. I feel I have very little connection left with this land that I have lived in all my life.

[Alan Medic]

I've never built a life of being a citizen of anywhere. I'm not sure what it means to be honest. Your life is your life. It doesn't depend on politics. Enjoy it if you can. Anyway if it worries you so much at least you can get an Irish passport. It doesn't guarantee being happy though. Remember, the world will end.....for everyone.

[jaywalker]

WM I am so sorry. These are truly appalling times.

I just pray that the posturing of these would-be leaders is just another 'promise' to be discarded as soon as elected. The Times today in its editorial was less sanguine: these candidates for PM have already disgraced themselves.

[WorkingMummy]

Yes - AlanMedic - I was not really too conscious of the fact that I had built my life on my EU citizenship until Brexit threatened to take it away.

You obviously do not have children of dual nationality with a non-British European co-parent, who is being threatened with being ejected, whose job in any event looks like it will move. Because if you were you would be painfully aware that without your EU citizenship, you can't follow your co-parent (with your children) and keep your family together.

If the country suddenly decided by referendum that AlanMedic's children's mother could no longer live in this country, and that AlanMedic could no longer go and live in said baby-mother's country either, then you would find that you had built your life on a lot of things which you take for granted right now, AlanMedic.

Alan Medic Wrote:

--------------------------------

> I've never built a life of being a citizen of

> anywhere. I'm not sure what it means to be honest.

> Your life is your life. It doesn't depend on

> politics. Enjoy it if you can. Anyway if it

> worries you so much at least you can get an Irish

> passport. It doesn't guarantee being happy though.

> Remember, the world will end.....for everyone.

[Lordship 516]

WorkingMummy Wrote:

>

> Thank God - from a completely selfish point of

> view - I have today had it confirmed that my

> maternal grandmother was born in Ireland in 1900,

> entitling me to an Irish passport. But I know

> other British mothers of European families who do

> not have this comfort and it is awful for them.

>

> I am seriously considering paying the 227 quid to

> renounce my BRITISH citizenship, once my Irish

> passport is sorted. I feel I have very little

> connection left with this land that I have lived

> in all my life.

Hi WM

Do you have all your grandmothers details - where born etc ? If you have any certificate [birth, marriage, death, old deeds] these can help. Sometimes Irish records can be difficult to obtain as the Customs House in Dublin was partially destroyed in 1922 [during the 'Troubles'].

See link for more info - www.gov.ie/en/essays/genealogy.html

I'd say - Keep both passports - I have both and it's quite useful.

Good luck !

[WorkingMummy]

516 - that's really helpful. I have my grandmothers full name and dob but will have to try to get new documentation as my mother has none. Apparently she was born in Belfast so perhaps the 1922 destruction you mention will not be a problem. They are inundated with hopeful would-be Irish just now though - I know of 5 other people applying through friends.

Thank you for your expression of sympathy jaywalker.

[WorkingMummy]

.

[midivydale]

Alan Medic Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> I've never built a life of being a citizen of

> anywhere. I'm not sure what it means to be honest.

> Your life is your life. It doesn't depend on

> politics. Enjoy it if you can. Anyway if it

> worries you so much at least you can get an Irish

> passport. It doesn't guarantee being happy though.

> Remember, the world will end.....for everyone.

Enjoy your life? I doubt very much that my 4 year old (and the thousands of children with him) can enjoy his life very much without his mother in it!!!

[Alan Medic]

WorkingMummy Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> Yes - AlanMedic - I was not really too conscious

> of the fact that I had built my life on my EU

> citizenship until Brexit threatened to take it

> away.

>

> You obviously do not have children of dual

> nationality with a non-British European co-parent,

> who is being threatened with being ejected, whose

> job in any event looks like it will move. Because

> if you were you would be painfully aware that

> without your EU citizenship, you can't follow your

> co-parent (with your children) and keep your

> family together.

>

> If the country suddenly decided by referendum that

> AlanMedic's children's mother could no longer live

> in this country, and that AlanMedic could no

> longer go and live in said baby-mother's country

> either, then you would find that you had built

> your life on a lot of things which you take for

> granted right now, AlanMedic.

>

Neither my wife, my son or I have UK passports. My wife has a Spanish one, and we have Irish passports.Only my son was born here. You said you can get an Irish passport yet you appear to becoming frantic about something that may never happen.

[Alan Medic]

midivydale Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> Alan Medic Wrote:

> --------------------------------------------------

> -----

> > I've never built a life of being a citizen of

> > anywhere. I'm not sure what it means to be

> honest.

> > Your life is your life. It doesn't depend on

> > politics. Enjoy it if you can. Anyway if it

> > worries you so much at least you can get an

> Irish

> > passport. It doesn't guarantee being happy

> though.

> > Remember, the world will end.....for everyone.

>

>

> Enjoy your life? I doubt very much that my 4 year

> old (and the thousands of children with him) can

> enjoy his life very much without his mother in

> it!!!

Does your edit mean you don't think my post is offensive any more?

[midivydale]

No it really doesn't, at all. I do think it is offensive as well as ignorant. It was edited which you clearly could not respect, as I simply do not have it in me to go backwards and forwards to explain HOW I found it offensive. Hence, the edit.

[Jeremy]

WorkingMummy Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> you would be painfully aware that without your EU citizenship, you can't follow your

> co-parent (with your children) and keep your family together.

This sounds rather over-the-top to me. If you want to stay in the UK, can't your husband/partner apply for Permanent Residence? Or if you want to live in your partner's country of origin, what would stop you going on a spouse visa?

Yes most of us would prefer the freedom to live and work in any EU country, but that doesn't mean that families are suddenly going to be forcibly separated.

[midivydale]

Jeremy, how do you know this? I would really appreciate some reassurance on this matter so please share if you can, Thanks