This is now a full blown constitutional crisis....

[WorkingMummy]

...and Buckingham Palace is going to have to step in.

Only question is if she calls a general election or simply appoints a new PM to get on with Brexit.

She cannot leave an emasculated Cameron in place until the party conference, his successor (who will run Brexit) to be chosen by the whim of the Tory party.

And she cannot leave her government without a rudder until the Autumn, when civil unrest is only one bad turn away.

[????]

There will be an election in the Autumn

[citylover]

No crisis, wd voted out and it's all good.

[jaywalker]

well, could we not do some scenario planning?

one possible course (all possibles currently being a little difficult to get a grip on) is this:

Tories in limbo next couple of months.

Corbyn gets vote of no confidence this week. EU leaders demand article 50 is invoked, UK refuses.

Corbyn is re-elected by rank and file party members, but does not have the support of more than a rump of MPs (about 50 I think).

Labour splits. Corbyn keeps labour party but ceases to be leader of HM opposition.

New centre left party, Umunna as leader if can be persuaded, otherwise Cooper. New party almost certainly becomes official opposition (no elections necessary, MPs can and do just shift party) and forms new shadow cabinet. Parliament still has years to run.

Tory leadership election: MPs give Teresa May big majority over Boris. But final two candidates must go to members: Tory members give Boris overwhelming majority over May.

Remain Tories refuse to serve under Boris. New centre-right party formed under May.

New government under Boris is refused supply by parliament (or Queen cannot appoint him in first place knowing no supply).

EU begin to cancel opt-out privileges negotiated by UK over past couple of decades. Very large number of EU workers begin to arrive in UK before we split. Signs of recession in real GDP become apparent. Instability on financial markets. First sign of significant inflation after collapse of sterling: yet Bank of England feels forced to print money wholesale to try to prevent recession and preserve integrity of banking system. Financial collapse threatens.

New govt of national unity formed by centre-parties (Umunna, May) on condition of electoral reform (otherwise centre parties, with majority in parliament, would be swept away at next general election). Actually of course, tory party doesn't have to formally split here - the new government can be non-party based, so Boris would just be leader of a party and not himself in government. New government says they will consider invoking article 50 when the conditions seem right.... but deteriorating economy makes it clear that that time is not now. General Election (possibly only in 2020).

IF then General Election under new voting rules. New coalition government announce they have no immediate plans to invoke article 50 and begin renegotiating the taken-away privileges. Economy swiftly recovers if EU not itself in crisis by then (significant elections there are in 2018).

ELSE General Election under current rules. Huge gains for far right in election. Centre MPs squeezed out by first past the post. Capital flight, inflation, chaos.

I fear the worst. The big problem is that the rest of the EU may start disintegrating. Then it is Ruritania here we come.

[JoeLeg]

citylover Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> No crisis, wd voted out and it's all good.

If you think there aren't problems on the horizon then you're either on medication or in total denial.

I'm not sure I agree it's a crisis...yet...but the government needs to step up and give people some clear indicators of what will happen, and quickly.

This is far from over.

[Blah Blah]

Agreed. Anyone who thinks there is nothing to worry about is deluded. But right now we need strong government with a plan. With every day that passes, it becomes increasingly clear how we've been led to the abyss by a small group of privileged boys who have decided to play Russian roulette with all of our livelihoods for the end game of an Eton power struggle.

[WorkingMummy]

But for HM the Queen scenario planning won't do (and anyhow she's not allowed to do it). She can't have no effective PM (or one who can only mow the lawn) for the next 4 months of crisis.

And it is crisis. Constitutional crisis. It is way bigger than the collapse of two political parties. Sturgeon is threatening to veto, (Queenie may have to have a quiet word and say she hasn't that power). And MPs are likely to start debating how to respond to the referendum itself - ie whether to ratify.

None of that can happen with a lame duck ex PM in waiting, a vapourised chancellor and no alternative government about to be formed.

She can't tell the government what to do but she is going to have to identify who the government currently is.

jaywalker Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> well, could we not do some scenario planning?

>

> one possible course (all possibles currently being

> a little difficult to get a grip on) is this:

>

> Tories in limbo next couple of months.

>

> Corbyn gets vote of no confidence this week. EU

> leaders demand article 50 is invoked, UK refuses.

>

> Corbyn is re-elected by rank and file party

> members, but does not have the support of more

> than a rump of MPs (about 50 I think).

>

> Labour splits. Corbyn keeps labour party but

> ceases to be leader of HM opposition.

>

> New centre left party, Umunna as leader if can be

> persuaded, otherwise Cooper. New party almost

> certainly becomes official opposition (no

> elections necessary, MPs can and do just shift

> party) and forms new shadow cabinet. Parliament

> still has years to run.

>

> Tory leadership election: MPs give Teresa May big

> majority over Boris. But final two candidates must

> go to members: Tory members give Boris

> overwhelming majority over May.

>

> Remain Tories refuse to serve under Boris. New

> centre-right party formed under May.

>

> New government under Boris is refused supply by

> parliament (or Queen cannot appoint him in first

> place knowing no supply).

>

> EU begin to cancel opt-out privileges negotiated

> by UK over past couple of decades. Very large

> number of EU workers begin to arrive in UK before

> we split. Signs of recession in real GDP become

> apparent. Instability on financial markets. First

> sign of significant inflation after collapse of

> sterling: yet Bank of England feels forced to

> print money wholesale to try to prevent recession

> and preserve integrity of banking system.

> Financial collapse threatens.

>

>

> New govt of national unity formed by

> centre-parties (Umunna, May) on condition of

> electoral reform (otherwise centre parties, with

> majority in parliament, would be swept away at

> next general election). Actually of course, tory

> party doesn't have to formally split here - the

> new government can be non-party based, so Boris

> would just be leader of a party and not himself in

> government. New government says they will consider

> invoking article 50 when the conditions seem

> right.... but deteriorating economy makes it clear

> that that time is not now. General Election

> (possibly only in 2020).

>

> IF then General Election under new voting rules.

> New coalition government announce they have no

> immediate plans to invoke article 50 and begin

> renegotiating the taken-away privileges. Economy

> swiftly recovers if EU not itself in crisis by

> then (significant elections there are in 2018).

>

> ELSE General Election under current rules. Huge

> gains for far right in election. Centre MPs

> squeezed out by first past the post. Capital

> flight, inflation, chaos.

>

> I fear the worst. The big problem is that the rest

> of the EU may start disintegrating. Then it is

> Ruritania here we come.

[DulwichFox]

Of course there is Panic and comfusion..

It't the first time in 40+ years that any P.M. has had to make any decision for themselves..

Brussels has done that for them...

Now we just need to listen what the U.S tells us..

Having The US and Brussels was like having 2 Anti-Viruses on your P.C. Conflict.

Foxy.

[WorkingMummy]

Ok, Foxy. If you think that, you just demonstrated in a single post why the referendum should never have been held.

No prime minister has done anything for 40+ years without EU say so????

Bollocks. You have no idea what either your government or the EU do.

DulwichFox Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> Of course there is Panic and comfusion..

>

> It't the first time in 40+ years that any P.M.

> has had to make any decision for themselves..

> Brussels has done that for them...

>

> Now we just need to listen what the U.S tells

> us..

>

> Having The US and Brussels was like having 2

> Anti-Viruses on your P.C. Conflict.

>

> Foxy.

[Toffee]

Love your posts Foxy. Am with you one hundred percent. There are too many people who arent old enough to know what Britain was like before we joined the EU. Edited to say sorry workingmummy, I didnt realise you were a politician.

[JoeLeg]

Toffee Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> Love your posts Foxy. Am with you one hundred

> percent. There are too many people who arent old

> enough to know what Britain was like before we

> joined the EU.

Ah, the sarcasm and condescension of the older generation rears its head. More than he racists and xenophobia, more than the protest votes that didn't really think Leave would win, it is you lot who have dragged the UK into this mess.

By yearning for a Britain that is totally unfeasible on the modern world and that was probably not that great anyway, you've told the younger generation they must live by your rules, despite the fact that the world they are inheriting is totally different.

In your selfish desire to 'take back control' - even though you don't even know what control that will be, as the Leave campaign is starting to admit, you've told everyone younger than you that they can clean up your mess.

Yes, more of them should've turned out to vote. Yes, the Remain campaign should've done much better. But you forgot, or didn't care, that they will have to live with the consequences of your dewy-eyed remembrance of the Britain of your youth.

Forty years ago the world was a very different place.

[JoeLeg]

DulwichFox Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> Of course there is Panic and comfusion..

>

> It't the first time in 40+ years that any P.M.

> has had to make any decision for themselves..

> Brussels has done that for them...

>

> Now we just need to listen what the U.S tells

> us..

>

> Having The US and Brussels was like having 2

> Anti-Viruses on your P.C. Conflict.

>

> Foxy.

Total rubbish. Remember Thatcher? Remember Blair?

The Leave campaign didn't have a plan for what to do when they won, because they didn't think they would. Now Cameron has dropped the whole steaming mess on their laps and sodded off, they better figure it out fast.

[DulwichFox]

WorkingMummy Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

It't the first time in 40+ years that any P.M. has had to make any decision for themselves..

Brussels has done that for them...

and

No prime minister has done anything for 40+ years without EU say so????

are not the same thing..

Under the E.U. the rules were laid down and the any UK P.M had there hands tied.

Now they have to think for themselves. Makes it more difficult . So Cameron resigns.

Foxy.

[Blah Blah]

Well said Joe. Those older generations have a clouded view of their own past. Decline had set in long before we joined the common market, but of course they hark back to the brief golden period they were born into. That 20 year post war boom that delivered everything they could have ever wished for was paid for with post war debt. The near full employment and decent wages was the rusult of the post war reconstruction that needed to happen. Well the world is now different. Technology has replaced billions of jobs. And the percentage of people of working age to those over 65 is shrinking. Many older people though also understand this, but not enough of them.

[JoeLeg]

Rubbish Foxy, absolute rubbish.

Cameron resigned to screw Boris, it was his parting 'gift'.

[Toffee]

Thank you. Always blame the older generation for everything. After all, we are all ignorant, pathetic wastes of space that should be put to death asap. Its our fault for everything. Have some respect.

[Blah Blah]

Respect? why don't you acknowledge the points made in my reply? In fact answer this simple question. What shape was the UK economy really in when we joined the EEC?

[JoeLeg]

Toffee Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> Thank you. Always blame the older generation for

> everything. After all, we are all ignorant,

> pathetic wastes of space that should be put to

> death asap. Its our fault for everything. Have

> some respect.

Am I blaming you for everything? No. No I'm not. I didn't call you ignorant, pathetic or a waste of space, so don't put words in my mouth. I called you selfish, and I stand by that.

I have two young children and a black wife who was born outside the UK. You've just told my kids that they can't have opportunities you took full advantage of, and my wife that she isn't welcome, despite holding British citizenship since she was 4 years old. You've just told us that things were better 40 years ago. Really? My wife doubts it. I doubt it.

Have some respect? Respect for you is not automatic just because you're older. I learnt a long time ago in the Army that respect is earned. Don't think by demanding it while taking away my children's future that you will get it.

[Blah Blah]

Inflation was an average of 9% for a start in 1973.

[Toffee]

Actually, my xomment was not about anyones race, gender or status. I truly hope and pray that leaving the EU will improve your childrens chances for their future. I am not racist by any meansand im sure my comments have not come across as such. I wish us all the very best for the future.

[Louisa]

I have respect for people's opinion, but on this I can no longer justify the decision that has been made. Not only have we, the brexit supporters been lied to in a big way. We have also overseen the potential collapse of our political system as well as upsetting the international community, many of them close friends and allies. We have also allowed a vacuum to develop in which some rather distasteful opinions have emerged which are making some people who are guests and great contributors to our country feel unwelcome and deeply troubled.

Foxy and toffee, you have both been lied to on this and that really isn't any exaggeration. We need to respect the fact that some people have been hit quite hard by this decision we have made and it seems to me that we should now have a period of calm reflection, in which some of us hold our hands up, admit we have been wrong- and somehow help to fix the mess we have unknowingly unleashed on the population.

Louisa.

[Toffee]

Very well put Louisa. I have great respect for your thoughts. However, my vote to leave the EU was not an intentional vote to upset or hurt anyone. I feel I must stand by my belief that we are better off without the dictatorship of Brussels. I have respect for many of the posts regarding this on the forum. As I said, I wish no individual, race, gender any harm or disrespect by voting out, it was my vote and I used it as such.

[midivydale]

Louisa I just wanted to say thank you. For reflecting, and sharing those reflections.

Joe, yes yes yes to all the points that you have made.

[JoeLeg]

Toffee Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> Actually, my xomment was not about anyones race,

> gender or status. I truly hope and pray that

> leaving the EU will improve your childrens chances

> for their future. I am not racist by any meansand

> im sure my comments have not come across as such.

> I wish us all the very best for the future.

All right, I take you at your word. But we're in it now, and I hope for all our sakes we can pull through, because if not you will feel it just as much as me, my wife and my little girls.

[Toffee]

Thank you JoeLeg. I hope we all come out of this for the better. God bless.