Stunned

[P.O.U.S.theWonderCat]

On the other hand, they interviewed a younger man who voted Out on the basis that he wanted his country back and not be ruled by Europe, and then admitted he had never voted before and never would again.

[Jules-and-Boo]

People vote for reasons that apply to them personally. Most of UK wanted out - and 40% of London did too.

There are no doubt many varied reasons for both sides to have voted - and votes for remain are as likely to have been driven by fear of the unknown (better the devil you know) as votes for leave were driven by appetite for change/ dissatisfaction.

It's true that both political sides lied to get the voters on their side.

It's more true now, that we need to work together - cross party collaboration - to get the best for Britain and move forward. It may even bring positive changes to the EU for the countries remaining. It does not mean we will follow Norway for a single market at all.

It does not mean the banks will all move out of London - the banking passport will ensure movement across EU zones.

[Loz]

red devil Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> ???? Wrote:

> --------------------------------------------------

> -----

> > There's going to be an election - I can't see how

> > it's avoidable

>

> Agree Quids. All the main parties now seem to to be manoeuvering towards that. The Tories will

> definitely have a new leader by then, and hopefully Labour too. I can't see any Tory

> pressing the button until they have won an election with Brexit in their manifesto, and

> therefore have a clear mandate to do so...

Interestingly, the Lib Dems have just announced that their policy is to take the UK (or what's left of it) back into Europe. If Labour does implode, which it may just do if Corbyn is re-elected or refuses to resign, it might just attract the centre-left anti-Corbynites. And a few disaffected Tory centre-rights might just join them if Boris or Gove get the PM job.

[JoeLeg]

Jules-and-Boo Wrote:

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> People vote for reasons that apply to them

> personally. Most of UK wanted out - and 40% of

> London did too.

I'm not really clear what you mean by that - yes, 40% of London wanted out. That's means 60% wanted to stay! But overall 51.9% wanted to leave, so here we are.

> There are no doubt many varied reasons for both

> sides to have voted - and votes for remain are as

> likely to have been driven by fear of the unknown

> (better the devil you know) as votes for leave

> were driven by appetite for change/

> dissatisfaction.

>

> It's true that both political sides lied to get

> the voters on their side.

>

> It's more true now, that we need to work together

> - cross party collaboration - to get the best for

> Britain and move forward. It may even bring

> positive changes to the EU for the countries

> remaining. It does not mean we will follow Norway

> for a single market at all.

But where will we go? The Leave vote was on the basis of Article 50; that's what they campaigned on. They didn't vote for a Norway deal, or any other deal, they made it clear they want to leave. I'm not sure how the Tories can navigate out of this one.

You're right, we might get something good out of this; I hope so.

>

> It does not mean the banks will all move out of

> London - the banking passport will ensure movement

> across EU zones.

I remain to be convinced about this. I think the banks will do what is best for them, and I doubt they've decided on that yet.

[Loz]

JoeLeg Wrote:

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> I remain to be convinced about this. I think the banks will do what is best for them, and I doubt

> they've decided on that yet.

If it looks like the UK will lose its EU banking passport, there WILL be a banking exodus.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36630606

[nxjen]

At the moment, comments coming from the EU are being made by individuals, albeit powerful individuals, which may not become fact when the EU as a whole become involved in negotations. There's an awful lot of dust to settle before we can see the way forward with any clarity.

[LondonMix]

Yes-- during the campaign, EU officials said that any new trade deal with the UK would follow the template of Norway, Canada or default to WTO rules. I think all of those are on the table. They made that point to say there would be no tailored made new trade agreement.

midivydale Wrote:

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> Do people genuinely believe that the rest of

> Europe has any interest at all in providing

> Britain with a "Norway style" "deal"?!

[Azira]

messageRe: Stunned new

Posted by Jules-and-Boo Today, 12:15PM

It does not mean the banks will all move out of London - the banking passport will ensure movement across EU zones.

It is clear you don't work in or understand the financial sector. Passporting is by no stretch of the imagination guaranteed. There are considerable internal politics in the EU which could hamper this, and passporting without movement of people is particularly unlikely.

The yank banks tend to want to stay here if they can because they prefer the infrastructure and regulatory oversight here, however, that will be contingent on passporting. For the Japanese and Swiss banks, there is very little incentive to stay as the whole point of having a base here was to be in the EU - its cheaper to run a third country branch with passporting rights in lots of other jurisdictions. For the Germany and French banks, there will be considerable political motivation to be seen to retreat back into Europe.

As such, the banks have contigency plans to shift operations. Whilst in some cases this will involve relocations (and also mean the UK no longer benefits from the tax revenue), with ancilliary functions at the lower end of the pay scale there will be redundancies.

As well as passporting, several major pieces of EU legislation require equivalence decisions to be issued by the Commission for certain activities to occur by third countries. These take years.

Why on earth would we wait around twiddling our thumbs waiting for years for this mess to be sorted out?

Legal hurdles aside, in practice this level of uncertainly stalls markets. In the 2008 crisis, the contagion was produced by a relatively small group of products and there was hope for restoration of the status quo. There is no such hope here. The City has been hobbled, permanently.

I get that people didn't necessarily understand all of this without particular industry knowledge. I still don't understand why they chose to listen to simplistic explanations either put forward by morons or those with an agenda rather than the people who actually do know how it works.

[heartblock]

I know... I said I wasn't going to say anymore.. But drinking Cavalo Nero while poking around Mr. HB's bloody vegetarian sausages, glad to say that Iain Duncan twat-Smith has just said Boris your next PM is a liar.. Yea.

[Blah Blah]

It's funny how Uncle seems to want to defend the position of the 40% in Scotland, but not the position of the 48.2% nationwide. Seems to not even have a balanced view of that, let alone anything else. We'll still be part of the European Broadcasting Union Uncle, just in case you still believe you voted to leave that as well :D

[Henry_17]

Strong logic from the EU hardball politicians.

Country votes to leave group due to disgruntlement with unelected governing.

Instantly increase vindictiveness level to incentivise other sceptics.

[jaywalker]

I have just seen on the news the French are saying that the UK cannot expect the banking passport to continue. It is not a treaty obligation, just a policy arrangement. Curtains for the City if Leave cannot secure it.

[Blah Blah]

I do think that the more this goes on, the less likely it will ever be that Article 50 is enacted. Whilst the referendum has said leave, the government, or rather parliament, haven't agreed to that yet.

We all know the primary faces of parliament are going to change. We know we face new Tory leadership. I think Corbyn will be replaced too. But here's the rub. Farage has tried on 7 occasions to become an MP. The longer the inaction goes on the better it suits him (notice how quiet he's been too since the result anyone?). A snap election. No party promising what Farage told people they thought they were voting for. UKIP field cnadidates in strong leave constituencies who fight a campaign on the lines that only with a strong UKIP presence in pariament can brexit be delivered. You can see how this will go.

[Louisa]

Also, don't underestimate the fact Nigel is about to lose his job in The European Parliament and probably will want to try and become an MP ASAP.

Louisa.

[Blah Blah]

He has been trying all the time he has been an MEP Louisa. So have other UKIP MEPs.

[Mick Mac]

Louisa Wrote:

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> What's all the more harrowing for me, is seeing

> some of the awful racism that has been emboldened

> by the brexit vote, something I never wanted nor

> even began to consider before Friday. I've seen

> some shocking reports of hate crime across the

> country, including here in London. Not only has it

> (allegedly) been aimed at EU workers, but also at

> third or forth generation Brits with an Asian or

> Afro-Carribbean heritage, and that makes me so

> very very sad. I would just like to assure

> everyone my intentions were never to legitimise

> any form of hatred aimed at anyone, that's so far

> from the type of person I am and the way I think

> and feel. I am hopeful that much of this is only

> low level reactionary responses from the most

> despicable people in our country, and isn't

> reflective of the majority who voted for brexit

> because they wanted genuine democratic change.

>

> As you say above civilservant, we must now try and

> salvage something from this messy situation, and I

> am hopeful that Blah's analysis of a Norgwegian

> style deal will be possible, or perhaps even

> another referendum. Last time I ever take at face

> value the words of people who squander my

> democratic right within 24 hours of me voting for

> them.

>

> Louisa.

There will be no Norwegian style deal. It has free movement of labour which is what the brexit voters in general were voting against.

[Blah Blah]

Those leave voters will not be negotiating the deal though.

[rendelharris]

Louisa Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> Also, don't underestimate the fact Nigel is about

> to lose his job in The European Parliament and

> probably will want to try and become an MP ASAP.

>

> Louisa.

The (expletive deleted) has had a go at becoming an MP five times and been knocked back on every occasion, hopefully this run will continue. The (expletive deleted again) really needs to be knocked back to the obscurity he so richly deserves.

[uncleglen]

I said-'you people spit on them'...meaning that some people who voted to stay actually referred to the leavers as 'morons', well, I would have said p*ss on them but that is rude....

It appears theer has been some dodgy goings on surrounding 'the' petition. And not everything you read is true- do you all remember 'happy-slapping'- yes well.....when it comes to politics, it's a free-for-all

[JoeLeg]

Well, some people who voted to Leave have had choice words to say about those who voted Remain, so if all you're saying is that people have said nasty things about those who disagree with them then yes, that's gone on with both sides.

I made the mistake of reading the comments section of an otherwise very interesting article on the Spectator website; all I can say is it makes the commentary on here seem like a 60's love fest. A lot of what Leave voters are saying about 'Remainiacs' (to use one of the nicer terms on there) is far worse than anything I've seen here.

I don't deny such views exist on both sides, but then both sides need to take a good hard look at themselves and decide how they want the debate to go from this point. The actions of Boris and crew so far have given no clear indication of where we will end up so yes, this debate will continue.

Probably now we all should take a breath and focus on the larger picture, which means talking about the implications of what has happened.

Re: the petition. Well, it's less than 80,000 signatures out of over 3,000,000, so not a massive amount. Still not good I admit. Strange that N Korea seems involved, question is was it people using VPN tricks, or the Norks themselves getting involved (let's be fair, they have an odd sense of humour)? Either way it hasn't helped.

Not quite sure what you mean by politics being a free-for-all; can you expand on that?

[WorkingMummy]

George Osborne just kicked article 50 even further into the long grass.

Said only U.K. Can trigger it.

Current administration won't trigger it.

It should never be triggered until (he didn't say unless and until but I'm sure that is what he means) plan is all put together and new deal clear and agreed.

Economy will be volatile and dip in meantime. Fiscal measures and cuts likely to be necessary but wait until Autumn statement for that.

[intexasatthe moment]

Mmm .Could that be what will happen ? No article 50 and new deal thrashed out .

Did I hear that only 100 of sitting MPs in favour of leaving .500 not . Surely there will be little will to leave ?

[LondonMix]

That's what Leave has always said. It doesn't want to negotiate with a 2 year deadline. It wants informal discussions agreeing all major issues including trade and then Article 50.

The EU has said they want to discuss article 50 issues (which exclude trade) and then once the UK is out of the EU, only then commence trade negotiations.

The key question is if the EU will agree to informal negotiations ahead of Article 50. Based on what certain key figures have said to date, the answer is 'no'. However, a united position from all 27 countries should hopefully come out of the EU summit scheduled for Wednesday.

With no discussions, it will be a question of brinkmanship-- whoever is getting hit harder by the uncertainty will crack and shift their position. Given in Spain, Rajoy gained votes in the election on Saturday relative to last time and is a pro-EU politician, I fear the EU will have a greater political and economic ability to wait until the UK feels it has to trigger Article 50 and start the process.

The UK will be much, much better off from a negotiating perspective being able to hold informal conversations without the 2 year deadline hovering over the proceedings.

[miga]

Relax LM - it will be all fine. We have taken back control.

[Jeremy]

heartblock Wrote:

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> drinking Cavalo Nero while poking around Mr. HB's bloody vegetarian sausages

Cavolo Nero is a type of cabbage.