Election Predictions

[Loz]

Getting this part of the forum back to serious descussion...

Not being a party political type, I'd like to start a discussion on what will happen tomorrow and the aftermath. My national vote has been for the LibDems this time around, but I've voted for yellow, red, blue and green in various previous elections, so hopefully this is reasonably unbiased.

*Election Day*

The latest poll of polls have Conservatives 35%, Labour 29%, Liberal Democrats 27%, and others 10%. But, the biggie here that doesn't show is the 'undecideds' - estimated at up to 40% of the electorate. That gives fairly high chance of the pollsters' figures being off.

I think both Labour and the LibDems will do slightly better than the polls suggest, and the Tories a little worse. Labour will benefit from the undecideds going for the 'better the devil you know' and the LibDems benefiting from the late surge in registrations from younger voters, providing the turnout is high. That may be tempered by traditional LibDem difficulties in translating popular support into votes, but the Clegg-effect and the prospect of a hung parliament has taken away the 'wasted vote' tag.

That will leave us well into hung parliament territory. My guess at seats? Labour with the most seats at about 270-290, Tories at about 240-260 and LibDems at about 90-95.

*Coalitions*

Brown has the right, as incumbent, to try and form a government. Nick Clegg can expect a call early Friday. If my seat predictions are correct, Tory + LibDem can just squeak in a majority (326) too, so Clegg can expect two calls.

Will Clegg accept either offer? Will Brown try and form a minority government on his own? I think no official coalition will form and Brown will try to form the next government 'with LibDem support'. That will give Clegg the most leverage.

If Labour were smart, they'd go into a coalition and let Clegg be PM. Everyone wins. Labour stay in power, but won't be seen to be the bad guys when the whole house of cards comes down. LibDems get to be in power and make a few major changes. The Tories get to set on the sidelines and look good. This, of course, will never happen.

*Aftermath*

In an election with no winners there are, arguably, no losers, either. Cameron can claim to have won the popular vote, Brown may still be in power and Clegg has done better than anyone expected.

Clegg stays until the next election, whatever the outcome tomorrow. But Cameron, unless he forms an unlikely government, will go. This was his election to lose and he lost it. Osbourne will lose the shadow chancellorship as well.

Brown is the tricky one. If he stays on and forms a government he will argue he should remain leader and Labour rules makes it very hard to depose a leader that doesn't want to go. Only a revolt by Labour senior figures may force his hand - and don't count that out. Brown is not exactly Mr Popularity - the Blairites still exist. If Brown gets anywhere near 28% of the popular vote (the previous Labour low water mark) he is in big trouble.

The problem for Labour is: who next? Ed Balls has been positioning for a while, but the public has never warmed to him and he's done rather badly in this election campaign. Harriet Harman is, by her own admittance, unelectable. Could this be time for Ed Milliband to play that ace he's been holding up his sleeve for a while? Or will he continue to sit on his hands until the whole hung parliament saga is over?

The Tories have a similar issue, but their cupboard is bare. Osbourne has been ripped apart during the campaign, but who else? Liam Fox? Dare William Hague stand up again? He's certainly a proven performer who would be chief mischief-maker on the opposition benches in a hung parliament. And people have warmed to him since he resigned and relaxed a bit.

Well, that's my tuppence-ha'pennys worth. Anyone else - without party affiliations - want to take a stab?

[Magpie]

Its in interesting one - historically Labour has tended to do worse than the polls suggest and the tories better, this can be partly explained by a more committed core (ie Tory votes are more likely to vote than Labour), and the shy tory syndrome. However, its complicated by the surge by the Lib Dems, as they tend to perform in line with Polls.

I think the outcome will be the Torys as the largest party with some 300 seats but no majority.

[????]

I think it's possible Labour may do bit better than predicted as I actually think on this occasion people not admitting to voting Labour as they did conservative in 1992.

I think Cameron will stay whatever happens Loz

Hung parliament

[silverfox]

Yes I think Labour will do better than anticipated, despite their poor campaign. As Loz says, the key will be the undecideds.

If I worked in the public sector I would think very carefully who to vote for given the bloodbath of cuts, pay freezes and pension cuts around the corner. (Incidentally did you notice how Bob Crow's lot quietly settled the pay dispute with the post office during the campaign - 6.9% over three years. It hardly merited a paragraph in The Times).

Not sure if it'll be the best thing for the country but looking like a hung parliament. Possibly another election within 12-18 months if the markets give us that much time. David (not Ed) Milliband to be next Labour leader.

[Loz]

Nggh. Correct, Silverfox - I should have said David Milliband. Though Ed has less of the slime factor about him.

[????]

If (when?) Brown goes I think Labour will have a very bitter internal row as the odious Balls will stand (and is the dirty fighter). Either of the two Millibands would make me at least reconsider in the future - Balls is an old school, statist, talk down to the electorate, concentrate on the opposition rather than running the country 'Brown' type, without Brown's intellect. There's huge strife in the Labour party between the blair and brownites.

[peckhamboy]

Assuming Balls doesn't lose his seat of course...

[????]

That would be a Portillo moment

[katie1997]

My predictions (not necessarily my wishes):

a)

Labour will scrape through. Blairite/Brownite all out feuding within the party.

Conservatives will lose Cameron/Osborne for sure. (IMO I thought William Hague was good on Have I Got News For You, people have certainly warmed to him but he could never be Foreign Secretary).

Libdems will be buoyed by the surge of interest.

b)

Hung parliament.

Labour and Libdems. Nothing changes. Election soon after.

c)

In any event, the Greens will need to work harder to ensure that they reach all parts of the electorate and don't preach to the converted. They will need to demonstrate that they have policies to deal with those issues that aren't just environmental (economy, health and so on).

I do agree with you Loz that if Labour had sense they'd ask Clegg to be leader in a hung parliament but that won't happen.

[tomchance]

katie1997 Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> c)

> In any event, the Greens will need to work harder

> to ensure that they reach all parts of the

> electorate and don't preach to the converted. They

> will need to demonstrate that they have policies

> to deal with those issues that aren't just

> environmental (economy, health and so on).

Katie, as Caroline Lucas repeatedly said when journalists made this same point in the few chances they gave her, the Green Party has had policies across those issues ever since it was founded. It has just taken thirty years for the media to catch up. Check out our election broadcast for a flavour: http://www.onlygreen.org.uk

In this election our flagship policies address public services, the minimum wage and the recession. Here in Southwark the living wage for council workers, an action plan for Peckham town centre and safer streets are three of our priority issues.

You might not realise this because our real problem is having enough money and activists to reach more than two target wards with this message!

[Loz]

Interesting possibility...

What if the Tories win exactly 325 seats today? i.e. one short of an majority.

The constituency of Thirsk and Malton, up in Yorkshire, don't vote until the 27th May due to the fact that one of the candidates died a couple of weeks ago. They are, on paper, a safe Tory seat, but have been known to return LibDem candidates in by-elections.

They could be the kingmakers - or breakers - yet!

[Marmora Man]

Small but sufficient majority for Conservatives.

[????]

Exit polls say Tories don't quite make it and Lib Dems down 2 seats....

[wjfox]

Conservatives 307

Labour 255

Liberal Democrats 59

Others 29

[wjfox]

???? Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

>

> Dems down 2 seats....

Incredible if true. I was really hoping they'd do much, much better.

[silverfox]

Appears the exit poll excludes postal votes, most of which were completed at the height of Clegg-mania

[Peckhamgatecrasher]

BBC predicting hung parliament at mo, going by exit polls.

[Loz]

The big news is the polling debacle. Expect any city seat with a 1000 majority and maybe a 2000 majority to be challenged in court. This is going to make an uncertain situation much, much worse.

Looks like the LibDem effect (lots of support failing to transfer into actual votes) has trumped the Clegg effect. The high turnout seems to be going against the LibDems and for the Tories.

If Lab + Lib < majority then the Tories will hold all the cards. LibDems only have leverage if they can play both parties off against each other.

[Peckhamgatecrasher]

Well Battersea's swung to the right, hope for Camberwell and Peckham yet.

Dear Hatty's just turned up for count, indications are she'll be waiting a while yet.

[Peckhamgatecrasher]

Bollocks, bollocks, bollocks. The witch is back.

[womanofdulwich]

How come Tessa got a swing towards her? do you think the liberals overdid it with leafleting or was it the candidate himself?

[????]

Labour to LD swing of 0.1% in D&N Whoopedoo!

I think that the election has shown is that the British people are a deeply conservative (with a small c) people and don't really want change.

....another election within a year...great :(

[????]

PS Highlight of the night for me and absolutely delighted that the BNP came third in Barking and were trounced by Labour

[red devil]

What Quids said...a TV news report said they were also wiped out at local council level...hoopla!

[katie1997]

tomchance Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> Katie, as Caroline Lucas repeatedly said when

> journalists made this same point in the few

> chances they gave her, the Green Party has had

> policies across those issues ever since it was

> founded. It has just taken thirty years for the

> media to catch up. Check out our election

> broadcast for a flavour:

> http://www.onlygreen.org.uk

Tom - thanks for this, very interesting. I agree with you btw, perhaps more engagement with/or a different strategy towards the media would help get that message across to more?

Dare I suggest that changing the name of the party could help? (although I realise this presents problems in itself, not forgetting how difficult and costly it would be).

My election prediction did not foresee the good result for the Greens either!