EU Debate - I am Voting to Leave

[????]

agree Rah - it's done. We need to move on and get on with the next stage. But either the economy's fooked OR those that expected the end of immigration from the EU are going to be disappointed...

[TwoScoops]

Titch juicy your post IS fear mongering and not related to what was being said

The things you mention are fall out from the surprise vote but not the reality of a world where Brexit has actually been agreed and implemented. Negotiations haven't started yet.

Rise in racism - horrible but not created by the vote, uncovered by it. Tensions were high due to mismanaged immigration policy. All of us can only tackle that as it arises and stamp it out. If there was a Remain vote then suddenly no racists ? Maybe you'd just prefer to ignore there was an issue. Maybe instead it's easier to say every Leave Vote was racist . That's a big shout for 17.4m people.

Volatility in the pound in not for forever. Markets react to uncertainty. For example can't you see how it might recover if for example a trade agreement is agreed. We don't know what it will look like yet and that's exactly what markets are reflecting, doesn't mean it's not going to happen.

Extreme volatility in world markets ? Be more specific ?? What do you mean ?

Increased traffic on German websites - fear mongering rubbish. The threat of losing passporting- yes, but just a threat for now.

The current situation is not the result of the vision of Brexit - it's the reflection of the uncertainty until we finally get on with it and agree what it looks like. I think all are keen to do that

[Seabag]

???? Wrote:

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> agree Rah - it's done. We need to move on and get

> on with the next stage. But either the economy's

> fooked OR those that expected the end of

> immigration from the EU are going to be

> disappointed...

I'll go for economy over other people's disappointment

They can get over the disappointment

[????]

As will most sensible non-racist people, which is why I think (hope) we'll get there or there abouts and people should calm down a bit. Doesn't mean it wasn't unnecessary, unsettling and not without real consequences of course, but we are where we are.

[Seabag]

Indeed

I'm slapping myself onwards ????'s

[titch juicy]

TwoScoops Wrote:

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> Titch juicy your post IS fear mongering and not

> related to what was being said

> The things you mention are fall out from the

> surprise vote but not the reality of a world where

> Brexit has actually been agreed and implemented.

> Negotiations haven't started yet.

> Rise in racism - horrible but not created by the

> vote, uncovered by it. Tensions were high due to

> mismanaged immigration policy. All of us can only

> tackle that as it arises and stamp it out. If

> there was a Remain vote then suddenly no racists ?

> Maybe you'd just prefer to ignore there was an

> issue. Maybe instead it's easier to say every

> Leave Vote was racist . That's a big shout for

> 17.4m people.

> Volatility in the pound in not for forever.

> Markets react to uncertainty. For example can't

> you see how it might recover if for example a

> trade agreement is agreed. We don't know what it

> will look like yet and that's exactly what markets

> are reflecting, doesn't mean it's not going to

> happen.

> Extreme volatility in world markets ? Be more

> specific ?? What do you mean ?

> Increased traffic on German websites - fear

> mongering rubbish. The threat of losing

> passporting- yes, but just a threat for now.

> The current situation is not the result of the

> vision of Brexit - it's the reflection of the

> uncertainty until we finally get on with it and

> agree what it looks like. I think all are keen to

> do that

The racism might have been simmering under the surface, but it's much much better under the surface than those feeling it has been legitimised reacting on it. This is a direct consequence of the result of the vote. Nowhere have i said anything about a majority of leave voters being racist and i don't believe that's the case. I do however believe that a lot of leave voters will have been swayed by lies peddled by leading leave campaigners, perpetuated by Murdoch and Dacre led media (The Sun has a daily readership of 4.5m according to some sources).

Re- the pound, i'm not speculating about the future, i'm telling you what's happening now, as a direct result of the vote. No-one knows what's going to happen in the future- but what's happening now is bad. Short term effects are still effects.

Massive volatility in global markets is exactly that. World indices are lurching up and falling dramatically with no consistency, making it very difficult for investment managers to manage portfolios, except to retreat into safe haven sectors, like gold or cash, meaning the everyday things that rely on those funds, like yours and my pensions are affected. Traditional safe haven investment sectors such as UK property are having a terrible time, with three of the main UK property funds (Aviva, Standard Life & M&G...all giants) having stopped redemptions from the funds as they can't sell assets quickly enough to keep up with the withdrawal demand from investors.

Why is the huge increase in traffic on German jobsites from British young people scaremongering and not evidence of current sentiment?

Why do you think that any of this will be resolved any time soon? Experts (yeah, them) are predicting that this will go on and on for years. Think about the net damage that can be done in that time, considering the damage that's been done in less than two weeks.

[Rook]

Well for me re the pound - its CAN look bad but it isnt always. For example, exporters are enjoying current levels as it makes their product pricing far more competitive. Also many countries have always looked to weaken their currency to attract inward investment. This was known as a "race to the bottom" in currency markets when all central banks were beign especially dovish during the recession as they were all fighting to attract trade -mainly by cuttign interest rates which always weakens a currency .

Therefore ist important to note that the pound being "weak" doesnt suggest its always bad news and a drain on the economy, but I appreciate headlines such as "31 year low" look terrifying. Alternatively, it can in fact be a boon to the economy and either way- with perspective- you can see that some of that immediate alarm is unneccessary.

To be fair, with a weaker GBP yes products might become more expensive for those on the other side who are importing products which in turn may have a knock on effect to consumers, but this is ONLY if the pound stays at these levels. Even then, with any negative effects of a weaker GBP you wouldnt see the effects until the end of the year at the earliest and only then if Retailers for example choose to pass on costs (or need to!). Many of my clients (high st names) have said they can negotiate a revision to pricing with a marked move in currency ,this is typically built into contracts to avoid this exact situation- as they all want to avoid invoking price rises (its bad for business!)

The main drivers of currency markets are also investment flows, so of course GBP would weaken because investors - as of now- have no idea what the lie of the land will be ...they dont know what they are investing in so seek short term returns elsewhere even if they are punitive! This is why you see volatility - because as news filters through suggestign progress, investors who have parked funds in safe havens such JPY or CHF reverse that position and buy back into the pound. Long term gilt yields suggest clearly that there is clear confidence in the long term prospects of the UK economy (priced with minimscule risk). Our banks are well capitalised and right now there is no financial crisis- but a political one. In summary, Investors have sold out of GBP because of uncertainty of policy (get on with it government please!) and the markets have priced in a very very high chance that there will be at least one rate cut (probably will be cut to zero). Just like you and savings account, why park your money in an account that will offer nil return in short term or hasnt told you yet what the benefits are.

If Im honest this rate cut will affect the pockets of consumers as itll make things cheaper re mortgages etc- but usign the same balanced argument I dont really see that as a victory as such (although Im sure good news for many) - but instead as a temporary result of a necessary action to see us through this uncertain period. I think we will see a shallow recession due to this, but a temporary one (the uncertainty wont last forever, they HAVE to get on with it)

Re UK Commercial property, well its being affected due to same uncertainty. Investors will hold back or pull out because the level of business investment is bound to drop durign this period. Most funds hold good cash reserves but its a sensible measure given these open ended funds can be "called" immediately and they fear a "run". These schemes are not ideal because calling cash out which is 'liquid' but is invested in non liquid assets such as property creates a clear disconnect which creates a worry that these funds will be forced to sell property at way below real market values just to meet the calls, which then causes them to fold and might have knock on effects etc etc.

This is why all stocks associated with housign are down. These funds are very well cash covered and the move is a sensible one - it avoids panic which is poison to markets. More geenrally these funds attract huge investment because?...property is a no brainer in London and makes a killing, Im talking huge returns as Im sure you can imagine. Investors "leavign in droves" actually means all those investors who up to now have been on a very nice gravy train thankyou. Its a popular investment and so therefore potentially has a crucial knock on effect in the UK economy as its popularity has grown so much. Again, therefore sensible to kill any panic by mitigating any run (although the news itself might cause panic - they cant win!) Ill bet my own house on it thats its short lived. Investment will flow back to the UK.

Finally- why will they do it quickly? exactly for the reasons above, and the knock on effects into Europe and globally- ...because they have to.

The UK economy is intrinsic to the efficient functioning of global markets and its in everyones best interest to deal with the UK on the most efficient basis. We have a deep liquid markets, are key to the financial heartbeat of the global economy and there is will to deal AND invest. Again they just need to get on with it

Sorry for length of this, but Im finding a good debate is better than a mundane train journey!!

[TwoScoops]

Think it's all about getting down to business and getting past this uncertain period. Things will come back as the picture becomes clearer.

I'd love to see everyone a bit more positive about that and accepting the future - even acknowledging that it might even be better. I think the uk has a great negotiating position so lets hope they do a good job of it !!!!!!!

[shaunag]

And for all the Britons living in Europe whose income is in sterling they rot while this giant turd is resolved, which could take years. Life is really bad for many in this situation, right now, because of Brexit. You can speculate all you like about where the pound will go, and how it's great for exports, but there are a shed load of Britons in the UK who import things for a living. These are people's lives we are talking about, right now, not at Xmas or in 5 years time. Just because it does t affect you doesn't mean it is putting many on the breadline right now.

[Rook]

Shaunag there is no perfect answer Im afraid when it comes to the relative value of GBP. There are always people on either side of the market.

If its expensive for importers/ its cheap for exporters etc

Id also argue that MOST expats living in the EU are actually paid in the home currency of EUR. This is about majority benefits/disadvantages rather than individual.

[Earl Aelfheah]

TwoScoops Wrote:

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> I think the uk has a great negotiating position

*facepalm*

[Earl Aelfheah]

Rook Wrote:

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> Shaunag there is no perfect answer Im afraid when

> it comes to the relative value of GBP. There are

> always people on either side of the market.

> If its expensive for importers/ its cheap for

> exporters etc

Except as a country we import far more than we export.

[red devil]

Rook Wrote:

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> Id also argue that MOST expats living in the EU

> are actually paid in the home currency of EUR.

For expats workers in the EU maybe, but what about all the expat pensioners living in the EU? I know of a few who all get paid a UK pension which is then transferred into Euros...

[JoeLeg]

TwoScoops Wrote:

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> I'd love to see everyone a bit more positive about

> that and accepting the future

Oh don't worry, we've now accepted that a vote in which it seems a lot of people (not all) voted with their latent prejudices has won.

- even acknowledging

> that it might even be better.

Very possible. If it's not then you'll be to blame.

I think the uk has a

> great negotiating position

Then you've started believing your own hype. I'd respectfully suggest you think more carefully about potential pitfalls ahead, and what we could be asked to agree to in return for access to the single market.

so lets hope they do a

> good job of it !!!!!!!

Hope indeed. There's a lot we need to hope for, and very little we can predict, but the blind optimism which makes anyone think the UK will be able to run the table in negotiations is dangerous.

[TwoScoops]

It's not blind optimism, you've seen the reasons and a clear acknowledgement of the scenarios. Everyone has a different view and mine is that due to aforementioned points I'm optimistic the UK will strike a good deal. That why I voted Leave.

Your reasons for blind negativity don't appear to be forthcoming though. ( suggesting 17.4m people are more racist or stupid than you gets filed as ridiculous I'm afraid )

[JoeLeg]

TwoScoops Wrote:

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> It's not blind optimism, you've seen the reasons

> and a clear acknowledgement of the scenarios.

> Everyone has a different view and mine is that due

> to aforementioned points I'm optimistic the UK

> will strike a good deal. That why I voted Leave.

>

> Your reasons for blind negativity don't appear to

> be forthcoming though. ( suggesting 17.4m people

> are more racist or stupid than you gets filed as

> ridiculous I'm afraid )

If you read my post again I said "many (not all)" voted with their prejudices, and I'm sorry to say that's an assessment I stand by.

While fully accepting the effect many communities outside London feel they have sufferered under - and agreeing that they have a good case and understanding why they voted Leave - I also believe that many people (not all, just so we're clear) used this to protest not so much at the government but more at what they perceive as the reason for their ills; foreign people. These were the racists, and he increase in nasty attitudes being openly displayed since the result backs this up.

At no point did I suggest what you I insinuate and you know that.

I do not have blind negativity. I am pessimistic, because we are essentially the guinea pig for exiting the EU. How we are treated will help other nations decide if they too wish to exit, and I'm sure you'd agree the distinct possibility exists that the EU may wish to try and deter others, by being harsh with us.

I'm not saying I don't believe we will strike a good deal. I'm saying that we need to realise how plausible it is that this will not end up to people's satisfaction.

People who voted Leave did so, as you say, for many reasons. Some of it was prejudice, but many others want a variety of things. I am extremely worried that whatever deal comes out will be unsatisfactory to many Leave voters, and I wonder where that will lead us. I'm not sure any government can find a way through that minefield.

So no, I don't think we are automatically doomed, but neither am I convinced yet that the EU will let us go amicably. Everyone is keeping their cards close to their chest, and we as a nation don't have a PM wil lead us through it. Already we are on the back foot, as the EU can organise while we fiddle.